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Author Topic: The Dole Derby  (Read 119824 times)

C.W. Herndon

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #45 on: March 15, 2012, 02:16:09 AM »

Thanks Gary, that should help to keep us all legal.
Woody (former 3316R)
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C.W. Herndon

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #46 on: March 15, 2012, 05:12:31 AM »

The title page of the Earhart e-archives at Purdue says they can be used and even tells how they should be credited. A rather long tag which wouldn't fit too well here.

People really ought to provide a link to the sources of their images.

Give credit where credit is due.

It allows others to check the sources that posters are using.

OK Marty, I finally got the link to work for the last picture that I posted and here it is.
http://earchives.lib.purdue.edu/u?/earhart,916
Woody (former 3316R)
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #47 on: March 15, 2012, 08:34:00 AM »

I'll do better as soon as I figure out how all of this stuff works!!!

Some hints in the "Forum FAQs and problem solving" board.

Relevant thread: how to insert links into posts.

The time to capture and record a link to an image is at the very moment that you are using the link to place the image in the Forum.  You have it at your fingertips--otherwise, the image would not appear.  So give credit where credit is due while composing a post with an image in it.
LTM,

           Marty
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C.W. Herndon

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #48 on: March 15, 2012, 10:46:45 AM »

Marty, I tried all of those things until I was BLUE in the face and nothing worked. I finally found a way on my own!
Woody (former 3316R)
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #49 on: March 15, 2012, 01:59:39 PM »


Venturing forth with a little 'rithimetic.believe that
1. Assume the Miss Doran took off with about 1000 gallons of fuel.
2. Assume the single engine used 30 gallons per hour (might have been as low as 25 gph) at about 90 mph, over water speed
. That gives an endurance between 33-1/3 and 40 hours. .which gives a range ofbetween  3000 and 3600  miles.
3. the DR  circle of uncertainty around Honolulu would be 240 miles.  If they drifted N and W they prolly would have spotted one of the Islands, so they prolly missed Honolulu to the E and S, putting them around 600 ( 7 hours)to 1200 miles (13 hours) S.    Hard to believe that they would have flown that long beyond the expected 27 hours.  Let's say 600 miles S when they ran out of fuel and hit the life raft.

4.  600 miles S of Honolulu would put them soewhere about 1300 miles N of Howland (1700 miles from Gardner).  The currents in the wake of Hawaii are between 2 to 4 mph to the S and would drift them S into the Northern Equatorial Counter Current which flows East and its counterpart, the South Equatorial Counter Current which also flows East.

5. Drifting (paddling, sailing) at 3 mph (300 miles in 4 days) they might have hit Gardner in 24 days.  Not beyond the realm of possibility.    Thoughts? 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #50 on: March 15, 2012, 02:01:49 PM »


Some hints in the "Forum FAQs and problem solving" board.

Relevant thread: how to insert links into posts.

The time to capture and record a link to an image is at the very moment that you are using the link to place the image in the Forum.  You have it at your fingertips--otherwise, the image would not appear.  So give credit where credit is due while composing a post with an image in it.
As long as we are on this subject Marty, I have had a weird thing ocurr when I have attachments. On a recent post I have  4 attachments, all of about the same size. But when I look at this post three of the attachments are normal, small, and one is super-large. This has happened before also. How can I stop this from happening?

gl

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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #51 on: March 15, 2012, 02:38:26 PM »


Venturing forth with a little 'rithimetic.believe that
1. Assume the Miss Doran took off with about 1000 gallons of fuel.
2. Assume the single engine used 30 gallons per hour (might have been as low as 25 gph) at about 90 mph, over water speed
. That gives an endurance between 33-1/3 and 40 hours. .which gives a range ofbetween  3000 and 3600  miles.
3. the DR  circle of uncertainty around Honolulu would be 240 miles.  If they drifted N and W they prolly would have spotted one of the Islands, so they prolly missed Honolulu to the E and S, putting them around 600 ( 7 hours)to 1200 miles (13 hours) S.    Hard to believe that they would have flown that long beyond the expected 27 hours.  Let's say 600 miles S when they ran out of fuel and hit the life raft.

4.  600 miles S of Honolulu would put them soewhere about 1300 miles N of Howland (1700 miles from Gardner).  The currents in the wake of Hawaii are between 2 to 4 mph to the S and would drift them S into the Northern Equatorial Counter Current which flows East and its counterpart, the South Equatorial Counter Current which also flows East.

5. Drifting (paddling, sailing) at 3 mph (300 miles in 4 days) they might have hit Gardner in 24 days.  Not beyond the realm of possibility.    Thoughts?
You are wrong on about almost everything.

About 600 miles south of Hawaii is about 10 degrees north latitude. Here is a link to the Pilot Chart for the Pacific for the month of July, look at it. In the area you mention the current is not southerly but westerly so the current would not move a life raft south towards Gardner but towards the west. The speed is not 2 to 4 mph but only 0.5 knots. The wind is out of the east 49% of the time and out of the northeast 47% of the time, a total 96% of the time and at force four. These winds would not blow the raft towards Gardner. You would be lucky to paddle a life raft at even one knot, nowhere near the 3 mph you theorize, a life raft is not a canoe or a kayak.

And a full scale test of your theory has already been conducted. In 1943  Zamperini and Philliips crashed in a B-24 in the exact same area in your theory. They did not end up on Gardner. They drifted to the west, moved by the current and the prevailing winds and ended up in the Marshalls after drifting westward for 2,000 miles in 47 days.

gl
« Last Edit: March 15, 2012, 03:00:02 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Bruce Thomas

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #52 on: March 15, 2012, 03:05:08 PM »


Some hints in the "Forum FAQs and problem solving" board.

Relevant thread: how to insert links into posts.

The time to capture and record a link to an image is at the very moment that you are using the link to place the image in the Forum.  You have it at your fingertips--otherwise, the image would not appear.  So give credit where credit is due while composing a post with an image in it.
As long as we are on this subject Marty, I have had a weird thing ocurr when I have attachments. On a recent post I have  4 attachments, all of about the same size. But when I look at this post three of the attachments are normal, small, and one is super-large. This has happened before also. How can I stop this from happening?

gl
Gary,
My first test, using the same jpeg 4 times, didn't reproduce the effect.

Then I noticed that your first 3 pictures were all the same size (1650 x 1275), but the final one was 1275 x 1650.   My picture is 871 x 544 so I created a rotated version of my picture that's 544 x 871 to use as the fourth one.  I tried with that as the fourth attachment -- but still didn't produce the effect.

Maybe it has something to do with the relatively large size of your pictures.  Maybe that's choking the SMF system when it gets to the fourth picture, and it loses its mind?
LTM,

Bruce
TIGHAR #3123R
 
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #53 on: March 15, 2012, 03:11:12 PM »


Gary:
Note Bene that I didn't say they "paddled" at 3 mph.  "Drifting (paddling, sailing) at 3 mph ..." is what I wrote.

The Northern and Southern Equatorial CounterCurrents both flow East, that's why they are called Counter Currents.

Note Bene that I didn't refer to my post as a "Theory", I know full well what a "theory" is.  I presented it as a possibility for discusion.

Oh, and BTW the Dole Derby was in the latter part of August, not July.
No Worries Mates
LTM   Harry (TIGHAR #3244R)
 
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JNev

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #54 on: March 15, 2012, 03:24:11 PM »

That's all interesting, but somehow the odds of Miss Doran finding herself washed-up on Gardner just doesn't seem too likely.

But that does kind of narrow the field for American women who might have been hanging about the area in that decade.

LTM -
- Jeff Neville

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richie conroy

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #55 on: March 15, 2012, 03:27:27 PM »

Gary i am going to be honest ere now k, I KNOW U KNOW, HOW THEY MAYBE ENDED UP ON GARDNER YE ? JUST WE AINT TOUCHED ON IT YET, I.E THE WAY THEY DID ? IF WE PRODUCED THE EVIDENCE OF THE ELECTRA AT BOTTOM OF REEF COULD U PROVIDE THE EVIDENCE TO PROVE FACT OR FICTION ?  :-\
We are an echo of the past


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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #56 on: March 15, 2012, 03:43:22 PM »


Gary:
Note Bene that I didn't say they "paddled" at 3 mph.  "Drifting (paddling, sailing) at 3 mph ..." is what I wrote.

The Northern and Southern Equatorial CounterCurrents both flow East, that's why they are called Counter Currents.

Note Bene that I didn't refer to my post as a "Theory", I know full well what a "theory" is.  I presented it as a possibility for discusion.

Oh, and BTW the Dole Derby was in the latter part of August, not July.
Here is a link to the August Pilot Chart, do you see any significant difference with the easterly winds and the westward current compared to July?

Zamperini conducted his experiment in June and here is a link to the June Pilot Chart, any significant differences compared to August?

Did you find any south flowing currents in June, July or August?

The counter-current flows to the east, not to the south.
gl
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #57 on: March 15, 2012, 04:17:16 PM »

[
I was referring to the "Wake Effect" that the very presence of the Chain of the Hawaiin Islands causes and which modifies the general currents set up by the North Pacific Gyre  The wake effect can persist for hundreds  of miles.  It tends to be South of the Chain and southerly in direction.  From my earlier post "The currents in the wake(emphasis mine, hjh)  of Hawaii are between 2 to 4 mph to the S"  I'll have to  look again for a reference as  to where I got this information.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #58 on: March 15, 2012, 04:31:30 PM »


Gary
Note Bene, nowhere in my post did I imply that the counter-currents flowed South, in fact I wrote the following "...  into the Northern Equatorial Counter Current which flows East and its counterpart, the South Equatorial Counter Current which also flows East."
(emphasis mine, hjh).
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LTM   Harry (TIGHAR #3244R)
 
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #59 on: March 15, 2012, 04:40:55 PM »

Quote
4.  600 miles S of Honolulu would put them soewhere about 1300 miles N of Howland (1700 miles from Gardner).  The currents in the wake of Hawaii are between 2 to 4 mph to the S and would drift them S into the Northern Equatorial Counter Current which flows East and its counterpart, the South Equatorial Counter Current which also flows East.

I think it is entirely possible.

If you view an animation in Google Earth you can see rotations in the currents are well. This could easily carry something floating several hundred miles further South, well within the range of Gardner.

See GE attachment. You need to fiddle with the control on the display to see the animation. It might take some time to load so give it a bit of time to download the frames.
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