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Amelia Earhart Search Forum => Alternatives to the Niku Hypothesis => Topic started by: Heath Smith on March 12, 2012, 10:39:50 AM

Title: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 12, 2012, 10:39:50 AM
I read an interesting story today that I had never heard of previously. It was a contest to fly from California to Hawaii sponsored by James B. Dole. The grand prize was $25,000. Several people died during the attempt. Two planes were lost, The Ms Doran and the Golden Eagle and later a third plane was lost in search of the other two.

Here are a few links:

Dole Air Race on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dole_Air_Race)

Hawaii Department of transportation site about the Dole Derby (http://hawaii.gov/hawaiiaviation/aviation-photos/1920-1929/dole-derby/ha_photo_album_view?b_start:int=0&-C=). They also have a bunch of photos of the day.

Very cool Youtube video about The Race (http://youtu.be/4B9T9MCq_h8).

I found something interesting in that one of the participants was a female passenger from Flint Michigan, a Ms Mildred Doran, whom the plane was named after. This plane, the Ms Doran was lost at sea. The others on the flight were a Navy navigator, Lieutenant Vilas R. Knobe, 30, of San Diego, and the pilot John Augie Peddlar.

From a webpage about the story, "The brand-new Aeronautical Branch of the Department of Commerce tried hard to legitimize the race. Inspectors insisted on extra gas tanks, lifeboats, sails, emergency rations and such, as well as orienting the old-fashioned earth-inductor compasses by swinging the planes around on a circle drawn on the ground. No pilot was to fly alone or without a navigator certified by them.". There were also references that all of the navigators on the planes were equipped with sextants and compasses.

An interesting idea yet remote idea to consider is the possibility that the Ms Doran flew far enough South to catch the South Equatorial currents that could have floated survivors over to Gardner. Perhaps it was Ms Dorans bones that were found there and not Amelia Earhart? While admittedly a bit of stretch, it could explain how a female's bones and a sextant box could have ended up on Gardner. This might also explain by the bones would be quite weathered when discovered in 1940, 13 years after the Ms Doran went missing. While the dating of many of the artifacts might not match well, I thought the type of sextant associated with the box might be of the correct era.

In any case, it is a very interesting story about the early aviators and the risks that they took to earn what was at the time a great deal of money in the process.

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Erik on March 12, 2012, 12:18:00 PM
Thinking outside the box.  I like it.  That's one of the conundrums about mysteries.  Oftentimes, the resulting outcome is something that was completely unexpected.



Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: JNev on March 12, 2012, 12:29:02 PM
The thought of Mildred Doran being 'our' castaway is fascinating, if a very, very long shot at best.

It is striking that the attached picture shows her complete with a compact in-hand - eerie.

What a lovely lady - and what a shame she was lost in the Dole Derby attempt.

LTM -
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Bruce Thomas on March 12, 2012, 12:46:25 PM
It is striking that the attached picture shows her complete with a compact in-hand - eerie.
Maybe Richie can use his photoanalysis skills to see if it's a Mondaine compact!  Or an iPhone.   :D
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 12, 2012, 01:29:10 PM

Here are a couple photos that could be analyzed if Richie or someone else has the time.

There is a wire on her pocket that looks similar to a found artifact. Although not exactly the same, I cannot figure out what it is on her pocket. It does not appear shiny but rather dull. The small buttons on her pockets could be compared to those found on Niku. Her shoes could be analyzed to see if they are similar to what was found. Researching the sextants, that is another area that is potentially interesting. Granted it might be a wild goose chase but she is the only other woman that I know of missing in the Pacific around that time. Perhaps there were more.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 12, 2012, 07:20:09 PM

Here are a couple photos that could be analyzed if Richie or someone else has the time.

There is a wire on her pocket that looks similar to a found artifact. Although not exactly the same, I cannot figure out what it is on her pocket. It does not appear shiny but rather dull. The small buttons on her pockets could be compared to those found on Niku. Her shoes could be analyzed to see if they are similar to what was found. Researching the sextants, that is another area that is potentially interesting. Granted it might be a wild goose chase but she is the only other woman that I know of missing in the Pacific around that time. Perhaps there were more.

I think it more than a little far fetched that this aircraft could have flown 2400+ miles from Oakland to Honolulu in approximately 27+ hours and had anything like enough fuel to fly another 2000+ miles to Gardner Island. Also this was almost 10 years before AE's flight.

The small looped item on her jacket appears to be part of some type small chain between a recognition pin of some kind and a "guard" pin. College soroities wear pins like this. The "guard" is to help prevent the loss of the main pin if its latch comes undone.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 13, 2012, 03:44:54 AM

Clarence,

No one is suggesting they flew the entire way. They probably had a good 20% spare capacity of fuel. If they missing Hawaii and kept flying South they might have then ditched and climbed in to a raft that they were required to carry. From there they would have to drift for potentially weeks before ending up at Gardner. Yes, it is still a stretch but it is a possibility.

Looking at the picture, my opinion is that it is not chain but wire.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 13, 2012, 12:58:27 PM

A stretch, but a very interesting one.
Let;s see, her name is known, Mildred Doran from Flint , MI and her navigator 's last name was Pedlar (I'll go back to the articles and get his first name).
Perhaps some descendents or sibling's descendents could be found and some mitochondrial DNA obtained for comparison with the samples from Gardner?  Rule her in or rule her out as a candidate for the Gardner Castaway.

The youtube video is interesting especially the life raft and the breath vaporizer demos.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 13, 2012, 01:22:55 PM

My Bad.  Ms Doran was a passenger, John Augie Peddlar was the pilot, and Vilas R. Knopie, USN, the navigator.  Perhaps his sextant type , number, etc could be traced and compared to the Gardner box?

It'is interesting that 2 planes were lost and then a 3rd plane searching for thhem was also lost. So, potentially, at least 6 and possibly more , people were floating around in 3 life rafts somewhere between Oakland and Oahu or beyond.  What happened to all of them?  Oh well, lost at sea, ho hum.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Erik on March 13, 2012, 01:25:14 PM
The youtube video is interesting especially the life raft and the breath vaporizer demos.

Harry!  I think you've stumbled upon the elusive 'water machine'.   :o
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 13, 2012, 01:43:03 PM

Erik
Yes,  the elusive "water Machine"  Will wonders never cease?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Chris Johnson on March 13, 2012, 02:17:41 PM
you tube link?

unless your pulling our chain  ;)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 13, 2012, 02:21:38 PM

Here are a couple photos that could be analyzed if Richie or someone else has the time.

There is a wire on her pocket that looks similar to a found artifact. Although not exactly the same, I cannot figure out what it is on her pocket. It does not appear shiny but rather dull. The small buttons on her pockets could be compared to those found on Niku. Her shoes could be analyzed to see if they are similar to what was found. Researching the sextants, that is another area that is potentially interesting. Granted it might be a wild goose chase but she is the only other woman that I know of missing in the Pacific around that time. Perhaps there were more.

the object you refer to is a broache and the others are stars  :)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 13, 2012, 02:47:31 PM
It is striking that the attached picture shows her complete with a compact in-hand - eerie.
Maybe Richie can use his photoanalysis skills to see if it's a Mondaine compact!  Or an iPhone.   :D

i dont think its same as one found on gardner follow the compact an thumb line, notice were the compact line changes at bottom of thumb ?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 13, 2012, 02:50:16 PM

Here are a couple photos that could be analyzed if Richie or someone else has the time.

There is a wire on her pocket that looks similar to a found artifact. Although not exactly the same, I cannot figure out what it is on her pocket. It does not appear shiny but rather dull. The small buttons on her pockets could be compared to those found on Niku. Her shoes could be analyzed to see if they are similar to what was found. Researching the sextants, that is another area that is potentially interesting. Granted it might be a wild goose chase but she is the only other woman that I know of missing in the Pacific around that time. Perhaps there were more.

i dont think it is a wire i think it's a small thin chain but will try getting a clearer pic for you's  :)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 13, 2012, 02:53:42 PM

Chris
Tthe link is in Heath's original post
" Very cool Youtube video about The Race."
I don't know how to get it over here, sorry.

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Chris Johnson on March 13, 2012, 03:05:57 PM
OK my bad for only skimming the thread.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 13, 2012, 03:25:07 PM
just thought would post this  :)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Chris Johnson on March 13, 2012, 03:27:10 PM
Is that a photoshop cut and shut or an original?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 13, 2012, 03:28:51 PM
original m8  :)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/39992761@N08/page5/

look at the cockpit aswell in the pics on link
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Chris Johnson on March 13, 2012, 03:32:17 PM
Cheers Richie

surprised your online with the main event happening in the 'pool tonight?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 13, 2012, 03:34:10 PM
watching it now  ;D cudnt get a ticket gutted  :( but hey score stays same am well happy  :)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 13, 2012, 04:48:09 PM

Chris
Very interesting story about the Dole Derby at:

http://www.sfmuseum.org/hist10/27dolerace.html

According to the story there were 75,000 to 100,000 at Oakland for the start of the race, WOW, that's Super Bowl Quality event.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 13, 2012, 04:59:17 PM

Richie
You are phenomenal M'Mate.  Where do you find this stuff?

Note that one of the planes lost at sea in the Dole Derby was "The Golden Eagle"  the prototype for the Lockheed Vega,a model that became  a favorite plane of Amelia's and also Wiley Post's (the Willie Mae).
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 13, 2012, 05:02:07 PM

Richie
You are phenomenal M'Mate.  Where do you find this stuff?

Note that one of the planes lost at sea in the Dole Derby was "The Golden Eagle"  the prototype for the Lockheed Vega,a model that became  a favorite plane of Amelia's and also Wiley Post's (the Willie Mae).

just seem to come across them  :)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 14, 2012, 01:59:47 AM
just thought would post this  :)

Richie, I'm not sure who you think this is with AE in the picture but it is another that was taken from the Purdue University AE e-archives collection. It is picture #83 and is AE and film actress Claudette Colbert. See attached.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 14, 2012, 02:34:36 AM

Here are a couple photos that could be analyzed if Richie or someone else has the time.

There is a wire on her pocket that looks similar to a found artifact. Although not exactly the same, I cannot figure out what it is on her pocket. It does not appear shiny but rather dull. The small buttons on her pockets could be compared to those found on Niku. Her shoes could be analyzed to see if they are similar to what was found. Researching the sextants, that is another area that is potentially interesting. Granted it might be a wild goose chase but she is the only other woman that I know of missing in the Pacific around that time. Perhaps there were more.

the object you refer to is a broache and the others are stars  :)

Heath, Richie,   Mildred Doran was a 5th grade school teacher in our state of Michigan. She attended what is now Eastern Michigan University to obtain her teaching certification. Her college sorority (club) was Alpha Sigma Tau. As you look at the picture that was posted of her with the pilot and navigator for this flight, the two items that are on the left side of her pocket flap, as you look at it, are her sorority "badge" and the "guard" for the badge attached to each other by the small chain. The badge and guard, with chain, are shown below. There also appear to be 3 stars on the pocket flap.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 14, 2012, 03:45:21 AM

Clarence,

Very interesting. Nice find. I guess that I was looking behind that chain and seeing something wavy that I thought may have been part of it but now that I see the pieces you posted, that must be part of the fabric or something. Do you see the S shaped thing behind the chain? Maybe it is just embroidery.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Erik on March 14, 2012, 05:25:24 AM
Doing more research on trans-pacific aircraft missing in flight, seems it is not a rare event as we have been led to believe.  Charles Ulm went missing 1934 on a flight from CA to Hawaii.  Same kinda a deal as Doran.  But, what is more interesting, is that Ulm was part of mail carrying operations from Australia to US.  And more interesting is the line of flight went right over the Phoenix group of islands.

Point being is that the Pacific in the 30's was not as lonely a place as we might often think.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Alfred Hendrickson on March 14, 2012, 08:22:53 AM

. . . . became  a favorite plane of Amelia's and also Wiley Post's (the Willie Mae).

I think you meant to type "Winnie Mae".

 :)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 14, 2012, 10:14:45 AM

Clarence,

Very interesting. Nice find. I guess that I was looking behind that chain and seeing something wavy that I thought may have been part of it but now that I see the pieces you posted, that must be part of the fabric or something. Do you see the S shaped thing behind the chain? Maybe it is just embroidery.

Heath, I see what you mean. I hadn't noticed it before and have no idea what it could be. Your eyes must be younger than mine.

This is a very interesting historical event that I, as a long time follower of aviation history, had not seen before. Keep up the good work!
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 14, 2012, 10:16:10 AM

Chris
Yes, Earhart and Doran, stunning similarities.
I'm wondering why Amelia didn't get a navigator and enter that race and take Mildred Doran  along as a passenger.  After all, there were  $25,000.00 and $10,000.00 involved for 1st and 2nd prizes.  It was 1927, she was 30 years old (Doran was 22).  But then again, someone had flown from Oakland to Oahu before the "Race" got off.  I believe it was Hegenberfer and Maitland, two Navy fliers that did it but Dole didn't give them the prize because they didn't land at  Honoluluand they didn't follow the "rules" of the start.  AE wasn't interesred in being second.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 14, 2012, 10:22:46 AM

Alfred
Yes, the Winnie Mae, Wiley Post's daughter.  Sometimes my typing finger (singular, LOL) has a mind of its own.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 14, 2012, 10:31:50 AM

Chris
Putting on my nit-picking hat.  Crashing doesn't qualify as a landing  LOL,
But then again, as a pilot, I've always heard that any landing that you can walk away from (crawl?) is a successful landing.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 14, 2012, 10:37:54 AM

A bit of trivia.  The road to the Oakland Airport from the freeway is Hegenberger Road.  The "old" airport is called North Field and has a good aviation museum, including an Amelia Earhart room.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 14, 2012, 11:09:20 AM

A correction to an earlier post of mine:  Hegenberger and Maitland were Army fliers not Navy, horrors, LOL.  And me an Army man too, unforgivable.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 14, 2012, 12:05:00 PM

Chris
Very interesting story about the Dole Derby at:

http://www.sfmuseum.org/hist10/27dolerace.html

According to the story there were 75,000 to 100,000 at Oakland for the start of the race, WOW, that's Super Bowl Quality event.

Harry, the story here also provides some more insight into the pins on Mildred's pocket. On page 3, the "Fallen 'Angel' " portion of the article, the write up says that "Mildred wore five fraternity pins on her olive-drab flying suit". Since the one on her right seems to be her own sorority badge it appears that the other four were fraterity pins. I can't see them well enough to tell what fraternities they might be but three of them look to be very similar while the one next to her own looks different from the other three.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 14, 2012, 12:21:33 PM
original m8  :)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/39992761@N08/page5/

look at the cockpit aswell in the pics on link

Gary LaPook,  since you are our resident attorney, I have a question for you. If you go to http://www.flickr.com/photos/39992761@N08/page5/ and check the photos that are posted concerning AE, many if not all of the pictures are taken from the Purdue e-archives but are listed as being copyrighted by flickr.com. How can they do that??
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 14, 2012, 12:52:37 PM

Anyone familiar enough with the artifacts list to know whether  sorority and/or fraternity pins and guards were among the things found on Gardner?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 14, 2012, 02:26:48 PM
just thought would post this  :)

Richie, I'm not sure who you think this is with AE in the picture but it is another that was taken from the Purdue University AE e-archives collection. It is picture #83 and is AE and film actress Claudette Colbert. See attached.

got to be twins haha

very uncanny  :o
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 14, 2012, 02:54:27 PM
original m8  :)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/39992761@N08/page5/

look at the cockpit aswell in the pics on link

Gary LaPook,  since you are our resident attorney, I have a question for you. If you go to http://www.flickr.com/photos/39992761@N08/page5/ and check the photos that are posted concerning AE, many if not all of the pictures are taken from the Purdue e-archives but are listed as being copyrighted by flickr.com. How can they do that??
You owe me a hundred dollars! I can make that claim but it doesn't mean that I actually do have a valid claim for a hundred dollars and that I can enforce it. I don't know much about copyright law but I seem to remember that copyrights in the U.S. only last 70 years. The photos of Earhart were taken prior to her disappearance in 1937...hmmm 1937 plus 70 years equals....

Plus, if no copyright had been claimed originally so that they were freely published before then they are "in the public domain" and cannot be copyrighted retroactively. Even if there were a valid copyright one can use them for our purposes under the "fair use doctrine."
gl

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 14, 2012, 03:18:40 PM
Quote from: Clarence W. Herndon link=topic=616.msg11152#msg11152 date=133174929


[/quote

Gary LaPook,  since you are our resident attorney, I have a question for you. If you go to http://www.flickr.com/photos/39992761@N08/page5/ and check the photos that are posted concerning AE, many if not all of the pictures are taken from the Purdue e-archives but are listed as being copyrighted by flickr.com. How can they do that??
You owe me a hundred dollars! I can make that claim but it doesn't mean that I actually do have a valid claim for a hundred dollars and that I can enforce it. I don't know much about copyright law but I seem to remember that copyrights in the U.S. only last 70 years. The photos of Earhart were taken prior to her disappearance in 1937...hmmm 1937 plus 70 years equals....

Plus, if no copyright had been claimed originally so that they were freely published before then they are "in the public domain" and cannot be copyrighted retroactively. Even if there were a valid copyright one can use them for our purposes under the "fair use doctrine."
gl

Gary, that is sort of along the lines of what I thought but just checking. Didn't want us to get in trouble. The title page of the Earhart e-archives at Purdue says they can be used and even tells how they should be credited. A rather long tag which wouldn't fit too well here.  Thanks!!
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on March 14, 2012, 07:42:45 PM
The title page of the Earhart e-archives at Purdue says they can be used and even tells how they should be credited. A rather long tag which wouldn't fit too well here.

People really ought to provide a link to the sources of their images.

Give credit where credit is due.

It allows others to check the sources that posters are using.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 15, 2012, 01:29:24 AM
Sorry Marty. I'll do better as soon as I figure out how all of this stuff works!!!
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 15, 2012, 02:14:00 AM

I decided to check and it is a little more complicated than the simple 70 year rule and, depending on several things, the copyright might last 95 years because the Copyright Act has had changes over the years. But what I said is still true, the types of uses we make on this forum, even if they might still be covered by copyright, are permissible under the "fair use doctrine." But if somebody wants to use the Purdue pics in a book they are writing then they would have to make a more thorough investigation of the copyright status.
gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 15, 2012, 02:16:09 AM
Thanks Gary, that should help to keep us all legal.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 15, 2012, 05:12:31 AM
The title page of the Earhart e-archives at Purdue says they can be used and even tells how they should be credited. A rather long tag which wouldn't fit too well here.

People really ought to provide a link to the sources of their images.

Give credit where credit is due.

It allows others to check the sources that posters are using.

OK Marty, I finally got the link to work for the last picture that I posted and here it is.
http://earchives.lib.purdue.edu/u?/earhart,916 (http://earchives.lib.purdue.edu/u?/earhart,916)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on March 15, 2012, 08:34:00 AM
I'll do better as soon as I figure out how all of this stuff works!!!

Some hints in the "Forum FAQs and problem solving" (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/board,1.0.html) board.

Relevant thread: how to insert links into posts (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,127.0.html).

The time to capture and record a link to an image is at the very moment that you are using the link to place the image in the Forum.  You have it at your fingertips--otherwise, the image would not appear.  So give credit where credit is due while composing a post with an image in it.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: C.W. Herndon on March 15, 2012, 10:46:45 AM
Marty, I tried all of those things until I was BLUE in the face and nothing worked. I finally found a way on my own!
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 15, 2012, 01:59:39 PM

Venturing forth with a little 'rithimetic.believe that
1. Assume the Miss Doran took off with about 1000 gallons of fuel.
2. Assume the single engine used 30 gallons per hour (might have been as low as 25 gph) at about 90 mph, over water speed
. That gives an endurance between 33-1/3 and 40 hours. .which gives a range ofbetween  3000 and 3600  miles.
3. the DR  circle of uncertainty around Honolulu would be 240 miles.  If they drifted N and W they prolly would have spotted one of the Islands, so they prolly missed Honolulu to the E and S, putting them around 600 ( 7 hours)to 1200 miles (13 hours) S.    Hard to believe that they would have flown that long beyond the expected 27 hours.  Let's say 600 miles S when they ran out of fuel and hit the life raft.

4.  600 miles S of Honolulu would put them soewhere about 1300 miles N of Howland (1700 miles from Gardner).  The currents in the wake of Hawaii are between 2 to 4 mph to the S and would drift them S into the Northern Equatorial Counter Current which flows East and its counterpart, the South Equatorial Counter Current which also flows East.

5. Drifting (paddling, sailing) at 3 mph (300 miles in 4 days) they might have hit Gardner in 24 days.  Not beyond the realm of possibility.    Thoughts? 
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 15, 2012, 02:01:49 PM

Some hints in the "Forum FAQs and problem solving" (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/board,1.0.html) board.

Relevant thread: how to insert links into posts (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,127.0.html).

The time to capture and record a link to an image is at the very moment that you are using the link to place the image in the Forum.  You have it at your fingertips--otherwise, the image would not appear.  So give credit where credit is due while composing a post with an image in it.
As long as we are on this subject Marty, I have had a weird thing ocurr when I have attachments. On a recent post (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,555.msg11163.html#msg11163) I have  4 attachments, all of about the same size. But when I look at this post three of the attachments are normal, small, and one is super-large. This has happened before also. How can I stop this from happening?

gl

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 15, 2012, 02:38:26 PM

Venturing forth with a little 'rithimetic.believe that
1. Assume the Miss Doran took off with about 1000 gallons of fuel.
2. Assume the single engine used 30 gallons per hour (might have been as low as 25 gph) at about 90 mph, over water speed
. That gives an endurance between 33-1/3 and 40 hours. .which gives a range ofbetween  3000 and 3600  miles.
3. the DR  circle of uncertainty around Honolulu would be 240 miles.  If they drifted N and W they prolly would have spotted one of the Islands, so they prolly missed Honolulu to the E and S, putting them around 600 ( 7 hours)to 1200 miles (13 hours) S.    Hard to believe that they would have flown that long beyond the expected 27 hours.  Let's say 600 miles S when they ran out of fuel and hit the life raft.

4.  600 miles S of Honolulu would put them soewhere about 1300 miles N of Howland (1700 miles from Gardner).  The currents in the wake of Hawaii are between 2 to 4 mph to the S and would drift them S into the Northern Equatorial Counter Current which flows East and its counterpart, the South Equatorial Counter Current which also flows East.

5. Drifting (paddling, sailing) at 3 mph (300 miles in 4 days) they might have hit Gardner in 24 days.  Not beyond the realm of possibility.    Thoughts?
You are wrong on about almost everything.

About 600 miles south of Hawaii is about 10 degrees north latitude. Here is a link to the Pilot Chart for the Pacific (http://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/APC/Pub108/108jul.pdf) for the month of July, look at it. In the area you mention the current is not southerly but westerly so the current would not move a life raft south towards Gardner but towards the west. The speed is not 2 to 4 mph but only 0.5 knots. The wind is out of the east 49% of the time and out of the northeast 47% of the time, a total 96% of the time and at force four. These winds would not blow the raft towards Gardner. You would be lucky to paddle a life raft at even one knot, nowhere near the 3 mph you theorize, a life raft is not a canoe or a kayak.

And a full scale test of your theory has already been conducted. In 1943  Zamperini and Philliips crashed in a B-24 in the exact same area in your theory. They did not end up on Gardner. They drifted to the west, moved by the current and the prevailing winds and ended up in the Marshalls after drifting westward for 2,000 miles in 47 days.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Bruce Thomas on March 15, 2012, 03:05:08 PM

Some hints in the "Forum FAQs and problem solving" (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/board,1.0.html) board.

Relevant thread: how to insert links into posts (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,127.0.html).

The time to capture and record a link to an image is at the very moment that you are using the link to place the image in the Forum.  You have it at your fingertips--otherwise, the image would not appear.  So give credit where credit is due while composing a post with an image in it.
As long as we are on this subject Marty, I have had a weird thing ocurr when I have attachments. On a recent post (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,555.msg11163.html#msg11163) I have  4 attachments, all of about the same size. But when I look at this post three of the attachments are normal, small, and one is super-large. This has happened before also. How can I stop this from happening?

gl
Gary,
My first test (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,619.0.html), using the same jpeg 4 times, didn't reproduce the effect.

Then I noticed that your first 3 pictures were all the same size (1650 x 1275), but the final one was 1275 x 1650.   My picture is 871 x 544 so I created a rotated version of my picture that's 544 x 871 to use as the fourth one.  I tried with that as the fourth attachment  (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,620.0.html) -- but still didn't produce the effect.

Maybe it has something to do with the relatively large size of your pictures.  Maybe that's choking the SMF system when it gets to the fourth picture, and it loses its mind?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 15, 2012, 03:11:12 PM

Gary:
Note Bene that I didn't say they "paddled" at 3 mph.  "Drifting (paddling, sailing) at 3 mph ..." is what I wrote.

The Northern and Southern Equatorial CounterCurrents both flow East, that's why they are called Counter Currents.

Note Bene that I didn't refer to my post as a "Theory", I know full well what a "theory" is.  I presented it as a possibility for discusion.

Oh, and BTW the Dole Derby was in the latter part of August, not July.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: JNev on March 15, 2012, 03:24:11 PM
That's all interesting, but somehow the odds of Miss Doran finding herself washed-up on Gardner just doesn't seem too likely.

But that does kind of narrow the field for American women who might have been hanging about the area in that decade.

LTM -
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 15, 2012, 03:27:27 PM
Gary i am going to be honest ere now k, I KNOW U KNOW, HOW THEY MAYBE ENDED UP ON GARDNER YE ? JUST WE AINT TOUCHED ON IT YET, I.E THE WAY THEY DID ? IF WE PRODUCED THE EVIDENCE OF THE ELECTRA AT BOTTOM OF REEF COULD U PROVIDE THE EVIDENCE TO PROVE FACT OR FICTION ?  :-\
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 15, 2012, 03:43:22 PM

Gary:
Note Bene that I didn't say they "paddled" at 3 mph.  "Drifting (paddling, sailing) at 3 mph ..." is what I wrote.

The Northern and Southern Equatorial CounterCurrents both flow East, that's why they are called Counter Currents.

Note Bene that I didn't refer to my post as a "Theory", I know full well what a "theory" is.  I presented it as a possibility for discusion.

Oh, and BTW the Dole Derby was in the latter part of August, not July.
Here is a link to the August Pilot Char (http://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/APC/Pub108/108aug.pdf)t, do you see any significant difference with the easterly winds and the westward current compared to July?

Zamperini conducted his experiment in June and here is a link to the June Pilot Char (http://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/APC/Pub108/108jun.pdf)t, any significant differences compared to August?

Did you find any south flowing currents in June, July or August?

The counter-current flows to the east, not to the south.
gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 15, 2012, 04:17:16 PM
[
I was referring to the "Wake Effect" that the very presence of the Chain of the Hawaiin Islands causes and which modifies the general currents set up by the North Pacific Gyre  The wake effect can persist for hundreds  of miles.  It tends to be South of the Chain and southerly in direction.  From my earlier post "The currents in the wake(emphasis mine, hjh)  of Hawaii are between 2 to 4 mph to the S"  I'll have to  look again for a reference as  to where I got this information.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 15, 2012, 04:31:30 PM

Gary
Note Bene, nowhere in my post did I imply that the counter-currents flowed South, in fact I wrote the following "...  into the Northern Equatorial Counter Current which flows East and its counterpart, the South Equatorial Counter Current which also flows East."
(emphasis mine, hjh).
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 15, 2012, 04:40:55 PM
Quote
4.  600 miles S of Honolulu would put them soewhere about 1300 miles N of Howland (1700 miles from Gardner).  The currents in the wake of Hawaii are between 2 to 4 mph to the S and would drift them S into the Northern Equatorial Counter Current which flows East and its counterpart, the South Equatorial Counter Current which also flows East.

I think it is entirely possible.

If you view an animation in Google Earth you can see rotations in the currents are well. This could easily carry something floating several hundred miles further South, well within the range of Gardner.

See GE attachment. You need to fiddle with the control on the display to see the animation. It might take some time to load so give it a bit of time to download the frames.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 15, 2012, 04:44:56 PM

Jeff
"That's all interesting, but somehow the odds of Miss Doran finding herself washed-up on Gardner just doesn't seem too likely."

Perhaps, but perhaps no more unlikely than AE/FN, with RDF and Itasca beacons and smoke and "watchers missing Howland and flying to Gardner.  Who knows, we gotta find that plane!
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 15, 2012, 05:40:16 PM

Jeff
"That's all interesting, but somehow the odds of Miss Doran finding herself washed-up on Gardner just doesn't seem too likely."

Perhaps, but perhaps no more unlikely than AE/FN, with RDF and Itasca beacons and smoke and "watchers missing Howland and flying to Gardner.  Who knows, we gotta find that plane!


in my opinion we av found plane

just need it verifying by people in the know ?

an hopefully the immanent announcement, by Ric or Tighar will Verify what we or I think is in the video still's

or it maybe unrelated, but will wait for announcement before commenting further haha  :)     
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 15, 2012, 06:06:45 PM

Gary
"Zamperini conducted his experiment..."
An Experiment?  I'd hardly call a plane crash that killed 8 crewmen outright and resulted in the death of another(McNamara) in the raft after 33 days, and the capture and imprisonment of Zamperini and Phillips  after 47 days  "his experiment".

And to say that the B-24 crashed in the exact area,  i.e. in the South wake current area,  is a stretchi.  They were in a B-24, the "Green Hornet", a dog of a plane not capable of getting off the ground with a full load of bombs and therefore referred to as a "Lemon".  They were looking for survivors of another B-24 that crashed, prolly to the West of Hawaii out of the Wake currents and in the Westerly Pacific Gyre.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Martin X. Moleski, SJ on March 15, 2012, 06:12:05 PM
... when I look at this post three of the attachments are normal, small, and one is super-large. This has happened before also. How can I stop this from happening?

I don't know.

Next time you see the anomaly, send me the link. 
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 15, 2012, 06:14:51 PM

Richie
I certainly hope that you are correct in your laborious analysis of the Stills.  All that is needed is for another expedition with an ROV/Grabber to bring something up that is A. from a plane, B. An Electra 10E, and C. THE Electra 10E.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 16, 2012, 02:44:57 AM

Gary
"Zamperini conducted his experiment..."
An Experiment?  I'd hardly call a plane crash that killed 8 crewmen outright and resulted in the death of another(McNamara) in the raft after 33 days, and the capture and imprisonment of Zamperini and Phillips  after 47 days  "his experiment".

And to say that the B-24 crashed in the exact area,  i.e. in the South wake current area,  is a stretchi.  They were in a B-24, the "Green Hornet", a dog of a plane not capable of getting off the ground with a full load of bombs and therefore referred to as a "Lemon".  They were looking for survivors of another B-24 that crashed, prolly to the West of Hawaii out of the Wake currents and in the Westerly Pacific Gyre.
I looked at your Google Earth image and  I have attached a portion of it. Once you put in the lat/long grid you can see that none of those whorls crossed the equator and so could not have moved Doran's raft from the northern hemisphere into the southern so as to have any chance of drifting to Gardner. Look again at the Pilot Chart and see if you can find any current of 3.5 knots, the equivalent to the 4 mph that you claimed the current reached in the Pacific. The highest speed I could find on the chart was 1.1 knots, 1.25 mph, about half of the low speed 2 mph current you claimed and only about one-third of the 4 mph high speed current that you claimed. You don't have currents that high in mid-ocean. Also look closely at the currents depicted on the Pilot Chart, none go south.

These Pilot Charts are published by the U.S. Navy Hydrographic Office based on data that it has been collecting since 1842, literally millions of data points. It is amazing that the Navy never found the south flowing, 2 to 4 mph, currents that you were able to find.

You are the one who put out the theory than Doran crashed about 600 miles south of Hawaii and I have plotted this on the Google Earth image and attached a KMZ file also. Contrary to your understanding that Zamperini crashed west of Hawaii, his plane was searching about 225 miles north of Palmyra Atoll which is south of Hawaii and I have plotted this position also. These two positions are only about 312 miles apart and located in the same westward flowing equatorial current, that's "exact" enough for me. Zamperini was south of Doran and closer to Gardner but he ended up in the Marshalls, not at Gardner.

gl

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 16, 2012, 04:16:32 AM

I was the one that posted the GE currents. I never made claim to exact speeds of the current. What I did point out is that if you were just a bit more to the South, you could be swept in to the Southerly Equatorial currents. If you played the animation you can see rotation in the currents that could have taken a floating object and moved it hundreds of miles further to the South. If you load up the animation, it takes a while, you can see the currents in a bit more detail. To say that we have any idea where Doran ended up is of course highly speculative. We know nothing as far as the skill of the navigator is concerned. They might have been further to the East and South than what you have posted just shy of the Westward currents.

As to the duration of how long you might survive floating in a raft, that depends on the rations on board that might have included some basic survival gear (like fishing line and hooks) you could theoretically survive for several weeks. Many have survived for weeks by drinking the rain water collected in their rafts and eating birds and fish. There is an interesting story on the series I Shouldn't Be Alive (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Shouldn't_Be_Alive) where a Steve Callahan survived for 76 days in a raft.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 16, 2012, 10:53:29 AM

Heath
Save your breath, Gary doesn't wanna hear it.
Notice on his map showing Xamperini's position relative to Doran's estimated position, Zamperini is 4 degrees west (@40 nm) and gary says that is good enough for him.  Also, he doesn't show that their (Zamperini's) position was west of the southerly flow of the wake currents below Hawaii.  It's a micro-current, produced when the water moves thru the straits between the various islands in the chain.  Kinda like the wing tip vortices created by an aero-plane as it moves thru the air creating wake turbulence behind thhe plane.

Let's just say that two strong young men (Pedlar and Knope, one of whom is a USN navigator) couldn't propel their life raft beyond the 1.66 mph that Zamperini drifted at (2000 miles in 47, say 50 days, 1200 hours).  Then their 1800 mile journey would take about 45 days.
Not outside of the realm of possibility.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 16, 2012, 03:13:06 PM

No worries Harry, we are free to believe whatever we decide. I do believe that it is entirely possible for not only the Ms Doran crew to have been swept below the equator, others might have as well. It is hard to imagine being lost in the Pacific and washing up on some remote island. While it sounds like adventure I think it would be more like hell on Earth. Someone died on Gardner and it had to be a pretty lonely way to go. Perhaps there were others with that castaway that tried in vein to seek out help on a makeshift raft. No matter who it was there it is a hell of a story that needs to be told.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 16, 2012, 03:53:17 PM

Richie
I certainly hope that you are correct in your laborious analysis of the Stills.  All that is needed is for another expedition with an ROV/Grabber to bring something up that is A. from a plane, B. An Electra 10E, and C. THE Electra 10E.

look at this still i have attached, the arrow pointing to top left is pointing to letters what i havent worked out yet

the 2 arrows pointing bottom left an bottom right, if u study the objects for a couple mins u will notice the shape an see they are flaps that are half open ?

what there for i dont know but hopefully will find out  :)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 16, 2012, 04:37:12 PM

Richie
The  cowling around a radial engine had the purpose of  smoothing  the flow of air around the engine and lessen drag due to all the things hanging on thhe engine.  The cowling had flaps that could be adjusted from full closed to full open to adjust the cooling of the air-cooled engines.

Maybe that's what we're seeing.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 16, 2012, 04:53:31 PM

Heath
In an earlier post here on thread I wrote:" Notice on his map showing Xamperini's position relative to Doran's estimated position, Zamperini is 4 degrees west (@40 nm) and gary says that is good enough for him."

Obviously, the (@40nm) was supposed to be (240 nm).  I didn't have achance to proof the post since I had to take my wife to the hospital quickly,  She;s OK but a touch of pneumonia in the Left Lower lung.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 16, 2012, 05:11:56 PM
For those who did not load the Google Earth ocean current file you can play a Video (http://home.comcast.net/~heathsmith/Earhart/OceanCurrents.mpg) instead. You can save the video to your hard drive by right clicking the Video link and then select "Save Target As" or "Save Link As" depending on the browser.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 16, 2012, 05:16:52 PM

Sorry to hear that Harry, I hope she gets well soon.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 16, 2012, 06:10:47 PM

Heath
Thanks, I appreciate that, things looking good, they have her on two types of antibiotics, pain killers, Breathing theraoy and things are looking good.

Liked your video of currents.
 Lots of people don't realize that within the general current paths, like the North Pacific Gyre which moves in a clockwise fashion and the south Pacific Gyre which moves in a counter clockwise fashion  And the North Equatorial Current that moves East to West and theSouth Equatorial Current that also moves East to West, there are the Northern Equatorial Counter-Curret moving West to East (Thus the name counter current) and the Southern Equatorial Counter-Current also moving West to East.  Has to do with the Coriolis Effect and the conservation of momentum, energy, and angular momentum associated with a rotating globe.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 16, 2012, 06:17:39 PM

Of course the shear line at the boundary between the North Equatorial Current moving West and the Northern Equatorial Counter Current moving East can be troublesome , as is the case in the South.

Then there are the micro-currents set up by the presence of land masses such as the Hawaiian Dhain.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 16, 2012, 08:12:10 PM
For those who did not load the Google Earth ocean current file you can play a Video (http://home.comcast.net/~heathsmith/Earhart/OceanCurrents.mpg) instead. You can save the video to your hard drive by right clicking the Video link and then select "Save Target As" or "Save Link As" depending on the browser.
What is the source for the Google Earth animation of the Pacific Ocean currents?

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 16, 2012, 08:34:14 PM
Quote
What is the source for the Google Earth animation of the Pacific Ocean currents?

Ocean Currents

The water in the ocean is constantly moving. Ocean currents are typically driven by surface wind and can have a huge impact on climate. Northwest Europe is moderately temperate considering its latitude because the Gulf Stream off of the eastern coast of the United States transports warm water north to those areas. In fact, the Atlantic Ocean along the U.S. coast is much warmer than the Pacific Ocean along the U.S. coast because of the warm water transported in the Gulf Stream. In this visualization, a model created by NASA, the color variations denote speed. The lighter green areas are moving faster than the blue areas.

Along most of the coasts, where the water faces an obstacle, the water’s velocity increases and eddies form. Eddies (small whirlpools) are most readily seen in streams, where they form behind rocks as the water flows around them. The eddies in the ocean follow the same priniciple, but are so large that they are hard to detect. Eddies can also spin off at the edges of currents as they travel through the oceans. An almost constant string of eddies is visible off of the northern coast of South America as an equatorial current from Africa crashes into South America. Eddies are also visible off of many islands around the world.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 16, 2012, 08:38:11 PM
Quote
What is the source for the Google Earth animation of the Pacific Ocean currents?

 In this visualization, a model created by NASA, the color variations denote speed. The lighter green areas are moving faster than the blue areas.


Can you please provide the link to where you found the animation?

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 16, 2012, 08:42:37 PM
Quote
Can you please provide the link to where you found the animation?

Try this (http://www.google.com/gadgets/directory?synd=earth&hl=en&gl=en&preview=on&url=http://maps.google.com/maps/gx?oe%3Dutf-8%26output%3Dghapi%26q%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fsos.noaa.gov%252Fbeth%252Fgoogle_earth%252Fsos.kml) link.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 17, 2012, 01:02:46 AM
Quote
Can you please provide the link to where you found the animation?

Try this (http://www.google.com/gadgets/directory?synd=earth&hl=en&gl=en&preview=on&url=http://maps.google.com/maps/gx?oe%3Dutf-8%26output%3Dghapi%26q%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fsos.noaa.gov%252Fbeth%252Fgoogle_earth%252Fsos.kml) link.
Thanks for the link.

Zamperini and Doran were only about 300 miles apart based on the 600 miles south of Hawaii for Doran mentioned by Harry and Zamperini went down searching 225 miles north of Palmyra according to the book, Unbroken, and for all we know, based on the information we are working with, they may have splashed down into the exact same wave. But what is important for our discussion is that they both landed within the same west bound North Pacific Equatorial Current so the direction of Zamperini's drift has a high likelihood of representing the drift of Doran, to the west, not towards Gardner.

I think I have found where you guys went wrong with you interpretation of the NOAA animation. I have attached a marked up screen shot from the Google Earth animation for August 1937. I have also attached the image that the animation was created from, it is number 37 at this site (ftp://public.sos.noaa.gov/oceans/nasa_speed/4000/). Here is the link to the overall site. (ftp://public.sos.noaa.gov/oceans/nasa_speed/) and here. (http://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/Ocean/seacurrents.html). (I picked this frame because it carried the date 9/37 in Google Earth but it is likely that the dates were not real dates but just used to make an animation. Because of this uncertainty we cannot judge how fast the various features move around so cannot judge the speed of movement of these features. If each frame truly represents a month then the animation covers 72 years and the movements we see in the animation are extremely slow. NOAA doesn't say how the animation was developed but, if it was based on satellite imaging, as is most likely, then we know it doesn't actually show the current at the time of Doran's flight since the first satellite was not launched until 1957.)

The blue color is slowest, green a little faster on up all the way to yellow and red. We know from comparison with the pilot chart that the blue represents about 0.5 knots and the green about 0.7 to 0.8 knots. None of these areas have current speeds anywhere close to the 2 to 4 mph that Harry mentioned. Where your interpretation went astray is that you interpreted the movement of the wiggly green lines as representing the direction of current flow when, in fact, these lines represent a slightly higher current speed but does not tell us anything about the direction of movement. In places where there are long lived strong currents then the color may delineate the location of the current but still doesn't tell us the direction of movement. A perfect example of this is the Gulf Stream which is colored red going past the east coast. We know that it flows to the northeast from other sources and from the pilot chart but, if all we have is the red color, then all we know is the location of the Gulf Stream and that it flows either northeast or southwest. The green areas near where you believe Doran ditched show slightly higher current speed but the direction of flow is still towards the west in the North Pacific Equatorial Current and is also depicted on the pilot chart.

To make this clear, imagine a diagram showing the speed of traffic on a very wide freeway, a thousand lanes wide. Let's say there is a section many miles long where the cars are going 40 mph, which we color blue on our diagram, and then there a half mile section where the traffic is moving at 60 mph, which we color green, followed by a 40 mph, blue, section again. When we look at our diagram the green line appears to go across all the lanes of the freeway and you have interpreted this as showing that all the cars in that section had made a 90 degree turn and were driving across the lanes of the freeway when, in fact, they were still continuing along in the same direction as before the green section only now they were going a little faster. And if the traffic started speeding up sooner then the green section would also be drawn further back and it would then appear that the traffic was moving in exactly the opposite direction than it was. Another example, if you watch the animation you will see what appears to be a long green, sinuous line come from the west, moving east and finally ending up at the Big Island of Hawaii. Your interpretation is that this showed an east moving current while in fact it is in the area of a constant westbound current. There is not a chance that there was a current moving eastward to Hawaii against the westbound current and the trade winds. All this green line shows is that the speed of the westbound current west of Hawaii had increased at different times at different spots along this green line. As further proof all you have to do is watch the animation while concentrating on the Gulf Steam and you will see occasions when the high speed red sections move towards the south in the opposite direction to what we know the Gulf Stream is actually moving. All this is actually showing is that he speed of the Gulf Stream was changing in different sections, not the the water had reversed direction and was actually flowing towards the south. If that actually did happen then the world as we know it is coming to an end,(of course this is 2012...hmmmm.)

And even, arguendo, if your interpretation were correct, that the direction that these green lines moved showed the direction of current flow, these green lines do not move towards the south so cannot represent a south moving current and do not cross the equator.

And you have been ignoring the effect of the wind which has a greater influence on the movement of a raft than does the current. Looking at the data gathered by Zamperini at great cost, we can see that they covered about two thousand miles in 47 days, averaging 42.5 miles a day. The current was only 0.6 knots accounting for only 16.5 miles per day and the additional 26 miles per day was due to being pushed by the trade wind. You can only sail a life raft straight down wind since they have no keel. Large, multi-person rafts ( except the round 20 and  25 person rafts) can be steered about ten degrees to either side of straight down wind but it is unlikely that Doran carried a large raft. So even if Doran could get across the equator she would have been confronted with the southeast trade winds that would blow her raft towards the northwest, not towards the southwest so not towards Gardner. And it would not be possible to paddle fast enough to counteract this drift cause by the southeast trade wind.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 17, 2012, 10:38:35 AM
More than likely the animation consists of 72 frames and there is no relation to time. I am not sure why you believe there is an illusion of some sort. The colors are only intended to give you a relative notion of the velocity. This is more than likely a model as the description states. This is not intended to give you a radar like image but an idea of the direction and rate of the currents. If you check this image (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Ocean_currents_1943_%28borderless%293.png) you can see the direction and the speed of the currents. In the region of interest, the current appears to be moving at a rate of about 2 Knots to the West.

While the trade winds (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/18/Map_prevailing_winds_on_earth.png) would have a major effect we do not know anything about the winds at the time of the disappearance. It is quite likely that the prevailing winds were from the North-East or East in that region of the pacific. Where did you get the South-East wind from?

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 17, 2012, 10:52:27 AM
Since you are interested in Zamperini, check out this page,  A timeline of Louis Zamperini’s journey (http://www.mickmel.com/blog/201101/a-timeline-of-louis-zamperinis-journey/). The author of the page created a GE file that shows a timeline of his life including where he splashed and drifted to. While he drifted almost directly West, he traveled almost twice the distance that would be necessary for the Ms Doran crew to reach Gardner. If the prevailing winds were from the North-East versus the East, he might have ended up in the Phoenix Islands instead.

If we follow your line of reasoning however, Zamperini should have never ended up where he did as the winds were out of the South-East and the currents were moving him to the East.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 17, 2012, 12:35:29 PM

the presence of NASA satellites annd the research they have done resulted in the discovery and description of The Hawaiian Wake, an eddy current that flows opposite to the westerlies and because of the angle that the Hawaiian chain presents to the westerly currents and the straits between the Islands a Wake current below the Islands flows roughly Southerly and at times extends for hundreds of miles.

I do believe that  two young men in relatively good physical condition in a raft having a relatively rectangular ( with two rounded ends) shape, and paddles to use to propel and Steer thhe raft could control the direction of the raft.  To say that the motion of the raft would be determined by the winds as oppossed to the currents is nonsense.

Let me make myself very clear.  I am not saying that the Miss Doran survivors, if there were any, drifted, paddled, sailed and landed on Gardner in 1927.  I am saying that it was possible and merits discussion and investigation into whether, or if, it impacts on the question of Who Was The Castaway.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 17, 2012, 01:01:31 PM
I could not have said it better Harry. I think we all agree it is a long shot but it is indeed a possibility.

If further bones, artifacts, etc are found, they should at least be considered as a possible source.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 17, 2012, 01:28:51 PM

the presence of NASA satellites annd the research they have done resulted in the discovery and description of The Hawaiian Wake, an eddy current that flows opposite to the westerlies and because of the angle that the Hawaiian chain presents to the westerly currents and the straits between the Islands a Wake current below the Islands flows roughly Southerly and at times extends for hundreds of miles.
You keep saying that but you don't provide links to your references. I have provided links to the current Pilot Charts published by our Navy and used in real life by real life navigators for planning real voyages and these do not show the currents that you mentioned, perhaps you should contact the Navy Hydrographic office and tell them of your new information and demand that they change their pilot charts.
Here are the links again to make it easy for you:
Main portal (http://msi.nga.mil/NGAPortal/MSI.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=msi_portal_page_62)

Pilot charts (http://msi.nga.mil/NGAPortal/MSI.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=msi_portal_page_62&pubCode=0003)

North Pacific Pilot Chart (http://msi.nga.mil/NGAPortal/MSI.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=msi_pub_detail&CCD_itemID=108&pubConstant=APC)


Quote

I do believe that  two young men in relatively good physical condition in a raft having a relatively rectangular ( with two rounded ends) shape, and paddles to use to propel and Steer thhe raft could control the direction of the raft.  To say that the motion of the raft would be determined by the winds as oppossed to the currents is nonsense.

Harry, do you think I just make this stuff up? I have attached several pages from AFM 64-5 (1961) and AFR 64-4 (1985) that provides support for my statements. You have already told us that you are not a sailor so I am going to accept the expertise of the people at the Air Force over your admitted lack of expertise in this area. You can think whatever you want to think, but others might agree with me that what the Air Force thinks on this subject is more likely to be correct.
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Let me make myself very clear.  I am not saying that the Miss Doran survivors, if there were any, drifted, paddled, sailed and landed on Gardner in 1927.  I am saying that it was possible and merits discussion and investigation into whether, or if, it impacts on the question of Who Was The Castaway.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 17, 2012, 02:03:16 PM
More than likely the animation consists of 72 frames and there is no relation to time. I am not sure why you believe there is an illusion of some sort. The colors are only intended to give you a relative notion of the velocity. This is more than likely a model as the description states. This is not intended to give you a radar like image but an idea of the direction and rate of the currents. If you check this image (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Ocean_currents_1943_%28borderless%293.png) you can see the direction and the speed of the currents. In the region of interest, the current appears to be moving at a rate of about 2 Knots to the West.

While the trade winds (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/18/Map_prevailing_winds_on_earth.png) would have a major effect we do not know anything about the winds at the time of the disappearance. It is quite likely that the prevailing winds were from the North-East or East in that region of the pacific. Where did you get the South-East wind from?
Take a close look at the current chart you linked to and then look closely at the legend. I think you will agree that the arrow closest to the Zamperini site has only one barb on top indicating one knot not two knots of westerly flowing current.

I have attached excerpts from the up to date pilot charts. We are working with the best location we have for the Zamperini crash, about 225 miles north of Palmyra,  and I have plotted this on the pilot chart. According to this chart, the average current in the area is towards the east at 0.8 knots since this position is in the counter current. But this plotted position is very near the average northern limit of the counter current so if our estimated position is off by a few miles, or if the northern limit of the counter current on that date was a few miles further south, then Zamperini would have touched down in the westward flowing North Pacific Equatorial Current. But either way, he was propelled westward by the prevailing trade winds coming from the east and blowing towards the west. If he started out in the counter current then the eastward flow of the current would have caused the raft to drift more slowly towards the west at the beginning but eventually the raft ended up in the westward Equatorial Current and from that point on the speed of the raft towards the Marshalls would have increased.

When looking at the wind roses that represent the average winds in each 5 degree section, the large squares are 10 degrees in latitude and longitude, approximately 600 NM on a side. The length of the wind arrows represents the percentage of time that a wind from that direction has been observed and you measure the length of the arrow with a pair of dividers and take off the percentage from the scale in the legend. When the percentage is high, which would result in a very long arrow, the percentage is just listed on the arrow. On the wind rose closest to the presumed Zamperini position the winds are from the northeast 27 % of the time at force 3; from the east 38% at force 3; from the southeast 24% at force 3. These three directions total of 89% of the time and the winds from all the other directions are only a few percent of the time.

Looking at the presumed location of the Doran splash, it is securely within the west flowing current and the winds there are also from the east or northeast 90% of the time so she would have been blown towards the west very rapidly under the combined effect of the current and of the wind. If the southward push component of the northeast winds pushed her down into the counter-current then she would be in the identical position as Zamperini with the westward speed reduced by that current by still driven westward by the force of the winds, just like Zamperini. If you look further south, south of the counter-current, you will see the winds are out of the east and southeast 87% of the time, there are virtually no winds out of the north. To get to Gardner, Doran would have had to have crossed this band of adverse winds. The average northwards component of the southeast winds would push her raft towards the north at a rate that she could not overcome by paddling. (And why would she even be paddling towards the south in the first place?) And the westward flow in this region would also push her even faster towards the west.


gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 17, 2012, 02:13:47 PM
Quote
I think you will agree that the arrow closest to the Zamperini site has only one barb on top indicating one knot not two knots of westerly flowing current.

Yes, these are general trends. Not far away it is generally 2 knots.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 17, 2012, 02:25:51 PM
Quote
I think you will agree that the arrow closest to the Zamperini site has only one barb on top indicating one knot not two knots of westerly flowing current.

Yes, these are general trends. Not far away it is generally 2 knots.
I don't see where you get that, none of the arrows in the north pacific equatorial current have two barbs.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: richie conroy on March 17, 2012, 04:55:27 PM
I'll do better as soon as I figure out how all of this stuff works!!!

Some hints in the "Forum FAQs and problem solving" (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/board,1.0.html) board.

Relevant thread: how to insert links into posts (http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,127.0.html).

The time to capture and record a link to an image is at the very moment that you are using the link to place the image in the Forum.  You have it at your fingertips--otherwise, the image would not appear.  So give credit where credit is due while composing a post with an image in it.

Marty i feel i must apologies as i am probably one of the biggest culprits of posting images without links so sorry.

in my defense though, most images i post are ones i have come across an saved to my computer over the past month's

so i will try from now on to add a link  :)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 17, 2012, 07:25:53 PM
For those who did not load the Google Earth ocean current file you can play a Video (http://home.comcast.net/~heathsmith/Earhart/OceanCurrents.mpg) instead. You can save the video to your hard drive by right clicking the Video link and then select "Save Target As" or "Save Link As" depending on the browser.
How did you capture that video from Google Earth?

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 17, 2012, 07:37:11 PM

I took screen shots and manually edited each frame in Adobe Photo Shop. I created 72 layers then compiled them in to an automated .GIF then converted them to an .mpeg. The process required about 4 hours to complete.

Ok, not really ;D. A friend recently told me about this package called Applian Replay Capture Suite (http://applian.com/avscs/). They have a fully functional demo that can capture audio and video streams. Anything that can be displayed on the monitor can be captured. The one that I used is their video capture program that can also capture audio as well. You need a decent processor to keep up if you are recording something like live video. I need something to record video conferences at work so I will probably buy the full retail version for about $80. It is a good deal if you have a need to capture or convert video and audio.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 12:03:34 AM

Gary
The last sentrence in a paragraph under the heading Seamanship in the manual reads "You can't go very far in a raft." (emphasis mine hjh).  The manual was dated November 1961, 17 years after Zamperini and Phillips went 2000 miles in a raft.  Perhaps the writers of the official survival manual hadn't heard of them (Z&P)? Perhaps it was inter-service rivalry, i.e. Air Force in '61 versus Arny Air Corps in 1944.?  What else might the manual writers have missed about rafts and currents and winds and paddles and sails?

No, I am not a sailor but I have heard of the Lateen sail,which was developed long ago to enable a craft to sail against the wind by "tacking" which I take to mean that the sail acts like a vertical "wing" with a camber that creates a force behind and into the sail thus propelling it forward against the wind in a zig-zag path.  I believe the Arabs invented it to propel their dhous.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 18, 2012, 01:18:43 AM
More than likely the animation consists of 72 frames and there is no relation to time. I am not sure why you believe there is an illusion of some sort. The colors are only intended to give you a relative notion of the velocity. This is more than likely a model as the description states. This is not intended to give you a radar like image but an idea of the direction and rate of the currents. If you check this image (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Ocean_currents_1943_%28borderless%293.png) you can see the direction and the speed of the currents. In the region of interest, the current appears to be moving at a rate of about 2 Knots to the West.

While the trade winds (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/18/Map_prevailing_winds_on_earth.png) would have a major effect we do not know anything about the winds at the time of the disappearance. It is quite likely that the prevailing winds were from the North-East or East in that region of the pacific. Where did you get the South-East wind from?
The current chart that your link takes us to is dated 1943 and the pilot charts I posted are dated more than 50 years later. The general rule is that you use the more modern data as it is likely to be  more complete and also obtained with more precision so resulting in  more accurate information. Did you ever consider where the data came from that was used to draw your 1943 chart? No satellites, right? Well it was obtained from reports sent in by ships' captains and by examination of ships' logbooks. This presents two problems with the data set used in 1943. First is the paucity of such data for the area in question since it is not on a well traveled shipping lane. Look at the pilot chart which depicts shipping lanes, none pass within a 1,000 miles of this part of the ocean. When you are in the middle of the ocean away from shipping lanes, the ocean is a lonely place. In 2009 we sailed from Lisbon to Barbados  (http://www.oceannavigator.com/content/ad-hoc-celestial-teacher-royal-clipper-0)via Tenerife in the Canaries. After leaving Tenerife (http://www.starclippers.com/us/our-fleet/royal-clipper.html) the next ship we saw was tied to the dock in Barbados, ten days later. Tenerife to Barbados is not on a standard shipping lane today but it was a traditional route during the days of sail. The standard advice for sailing from Europe to America was "sail south 'til the butter melts before turning west." Going south gets you to the latitudes of the trade winds which then drives your ship straight downwind to the Caribbean. So most of the data used for your chart came from whaling ships that hunted whales in that area during the 19th century, data that was a hundred years old.

This brings us to the second problem with the data set used for the 1943 chart, its lack of accuracy. To determine the currents accurately requires accurate navigation positions and the methods used in the 19th century lacked the precision of today. When asked about thecare they used in navigating their whalers, New England whale captains commonly answered "I don't care where I am as long as I am surrounded by whales."

So the modern pilot chart I posted has a much larger and precise data set so these charts are more accurate than the 1943 chart and it gives the current in the area where Doran is presumed to have gone down as only 0.7 knots.

gl

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 18, 2012, 02:03:11 AM

Gary
The last sentrence in a paragraph under the heading Seamanship in the manual reads "You can't go very far in a raft." (emphasis mine hjh).  The manual was dated November 1961, 17 years after Zamperini and Phillips went 2000 miles in a raft.  Perhaps the writers of the official survival manual hadn't heard of them (Z&P)? Perhaps it was inter-service rivalry, i.e. Air Force in '61 versus Arny Air Corps in 1944.?  What else might the manual writers have missed about rafts and currents and winds and paddles and sails?
That was a very exceptional case, the record before that had been 21 days set by Rickenbacker and his crew. What the manual is telling people on a raft is "don't expect to be able to equal Zamperini's experience," which is accurate advice. Since the Air Force is the direct descendant of the Army Air Corps and the Army Air Forces, I don't think inter-service rivalry is a factor, there were many people in the Air Force in 1961 who had previously served in the Army Air Forces during WW2. Now if Zamerini had been a naval swabby......
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No, I am not a sailor but I have heard of the Lateen sail,which was developed long ago to enable a craft to sail against the wind by "tacking" which I take to mean that the sail acts like a vertical "wing" with a camber that creates a force behind and into the sail thus propelling it forward against the wind in a zig-zag path.  I believe the Arabs invented it to propel their dhous.
A modern, well designed sailboat with a tall, high aspect ratio sail plan can sail within 45 degrees of the true wind. Square rigged vessels could only sail within about 70 degrees of the true wind so do not make much progress against the wind. But what makes sailing upwind possible is a keel that acts like a hydrofoil making lift under water.  So it was not the lateen sail that made sailing close to the wind possible but that in combination with the keel. Life rafts do not have tall sails (if they have sails at all) and they do not have keels which is why they can only sail about straight downwind, more than 170 degrees away from the true wind for large rafts and straight downwind for a small raft. The sail and keel combination extracts energy out of the air/water system which propels a sailboat. A balloon cannot extract energy from the movement of the air mass, the wind, it can only travel with the air mass, straight downwind, just like a life raft. A windmill can extract energy from the  movement of the air because it is anchored to the ground and cannot be blown downwind and a sailboat, with a keel which prevents the boat from being blown straight downwind, can also extract energy from the movement of the air at the interface with the ocean and so be propelled in about 3/4ths of the compass, only excluding the 90 degrees surrounding the direction of the true wind.

gl

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 18, 2012, 05:52:55 AM
Quote
So the modern pilot chart I posted has a much larger and precise data set so these charts are more accurate than the 1943 chart and it gives the current in the area where Doran is presumed to have gone down as only 0.7 knots.

As the NASA model shows the currents are much more dynamic and complex than what can be captured on a chart that shows general trends. Irrespective of the current, as you had stated about Zamperini's experience, the wind was the major factor, not the current. There are a lot of variables here and I do not believe that you can accurately predict which direction and how far an object would have traveled back in 1927 in the region of the Pacific. If you can, please tell me the lotto numbers for Tuesdays drawing in Michigan Mega-Millions this coming Tuesday, the jackpot is going to be 250 million and I could really use the cash.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: JNev on March 18, 2012, 09:10:58 AM
Good point, Heath -

Anyone who can accurately figure the odds of bumping into one of these islands - or not doing so (even though we can see it's 'remote') - in a given circumstance ought to be rich beyond measure by sopping up lotto loose change week-after-week...

And if they are, I wish they'd step up and fund more searching at Gardner.

LTM -
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 11:05:15 AM

I wonder what a fishing boat captain off the coast of Japan, about a year ago, with his pilot charts (is that what they are called, pilot charts?, that's the ticket, just kidding)  on his desk showing the current direction and speed in his location, thought about the large wave (40 to 60 feet in height and moving at speeds of up to 500 mph) that enveloped him.  I suppose he said something like , hey, where did you come from?  You're not on the charts!  The charts show averages, they do not show outliers or micro-currents.  We have no idea what the currents surronding Hawaii in August/September of 1927 (or, for that matter,in June, 1944) were like.

I am anxiously awaiting delivery of the book "Unbroken" by Hillebrand, the story of the Zamperini/Phillips and McNamara episode.

Another great read about a sea survival is the book "Survive The Savage Sea" by Dougal Robertson. A Wikipedia summary is at:
"Robertson, who had been keeping a journal in case they were rescued, recounted the ordeal in the 1973 book Survive the Savage Sea, which served as the ..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dougal_Robertson   - 34k - Cached - Similar pages
I'd make it a link but I haven't learned how to do that yet.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 12:06:18 PM

Gary
A summary from  Encyclopedia Britannica online(see below for http location)
"lateen sail, triangular sail that was of decisive importance (emphasis mine, hjh) to medieval navigation. The ancient square sail permitted sailing only before the wind; the lateen was the earliest fore-and-aft sail. The triangular sail was affixed to a long yard or crossbar, mounted at its middle to the top of the mast and angled to extend aft far above the mast and forward down nearly to the deck. The sail, its free corner secured near the stern, was capable of taking the wind on either side, and, by enabling the vessel to tack into the wind, the lateen immensely increased the potential of the sailing ship.(emphasis mine, hjh)The lateen is believed to have been used in the eastern Mediterranean as early as the 2nd century ce, possibly imported from Egypt or the Persian Gulf. Its effective use by the Arabs caused its rapid spread throughout the Mediterranean, contributing significantly to the resurgence of medieval commerce. Combined with the square sail, it produced the ocean-conquering full-rigged ship. The Sunfish class of one-design sailboats is lateen gged."

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/331395/lateen-sail   - 83k - Cached - Similar pages



On a canoeing/fishing trip on Lake Isabel in the Quetico, I fabricated a hasty lateen sail and mounted it on a mast and attached it to my smooth-bottomed 17 foot  Sears-Roebuck canoe.  We, (me, my son, and his friend, they were 14 at the time) then "sailed" up the lake with the wind, then came back to camp tacking against the wind.  Great fun but a lot of bailing cause of the lean of the canoe as we tacked into the wind.  I can see where a keel, even a small one like the one on a Grumman canoe, would have helped resist the leaning.

Hey, this is fun, almost like Dr Seuss and Oh, the places you'll go and the things you'll see!
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 18, 2012, 12:09:35 PM

I wonder what a fishing boat captain off the coast of Japan, about a year ago, with his pilot charts (is that what they are called, pilot charts?, that's the ticket, just kidding)
They are named Pilot Charts (http://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/APC/Pub108/108cover.pdf).
Quote
on his desk showing the current direction and speed in his location, thought about the large wave (40 to 60 feet in height and moving at speeds of up to 500 mph) that enveloped him.  I suppose he said something like , hey, where did you come from?  You're not on the charts!


In deep water the waves that make a tsunami are not very high, only a foot or two, and they have a very long wavelength. It is only when the "feel the bottom" in shallow water do they pile up and become destructive. 
Quote

The charts show averages, they do not show outliers or micro-currents.  We have no idea what the currents surronding Hawaii in August/September of 1927 (or, for that matter,in June, 1944) were like.

Yes we do have a very good idea of what the currents and the winds were at those times and places, that information is on the pilot charts. F=MA. (Force = Mass x Acceleration so Acceleration = Force/Mass). The Mass of the water in the North Pacific Equatorial Current is approximately ten-quadrillion-zillion slugs so to accelerate that water to increase the speed of the current by even 0.1 mph (0.15 feet per second ) would take 1.5-quadrillion-zillion pounds of force. How do you come up with that force, Harry? Nukes won't do it!

You mention micro currents downstream of islands. You are a canoeist so I'm sure that you are familiar with the same type of micro currents created by rocks in a stream that cause the flowing water to go around the rocks causing whorls and turbulent flow downstream. In this turbulent flow the velocity of the water changes in direction and speed temporarily but dies off after a short distance and this is the same type of turbulent flow induced by ocean currents flowing past an island. Let me ask you this, Harry. In all of your experience as a canoeist on rivers and streams did you ever encounter a current that pushed your canoe back upstream against the prevailing current?
I didn't think so.

Look at the wind rose (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=616.0;attach=1905) near the position of the presumed Doran splash point, 51% of the time the wind is from the northeast; 39% from the east; 2% southeast; 1% south; 1% southwest; 2% west; 2% northwest; 2% from the north and 0% of calms. So do we know what the winds were on the day she splashed? No, that may have been the one day out of a hundred that the wind was from the south. How about on the second day, the third? You can't be certain what the winds were on any one particular day but due to the principle of "reduction to the mean" we can be very certain, that over the long period of time that she would have had to have been adrift, that the winds she encountered were accurately represented by the wind rose, 51 days out of a hundred (or maybe during that period it might have been 50 or 52 days, but it would have been very close to 51) she would have had northeast winds, etc.
Quote

I am anxiously awaiting delivery of the book "Unbroken" by Hillebrand, the story of the Zamperini/Phillips and McNamara episode.

It' a good book.
Quote

Another great read about a sea survival is the book "Survive The Savage Sea" by Dougal Robertson. A Wikipedia summary is at:
"Robertson, who had been keeping a journal in case they were rescued, recounted the ordeal in the 1973 book Survive the Savage Sea, which served as the ..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dougal_Robertson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dougal_Robertson)   - 34k - Cached - Similar pages
I'd make it a link but I haven't learned how to do that yet.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 18, 2012, 12:36:09 PM

Speaking of books, I found this one today: Shooting Star: The First Attempt By A Woman To Reach Hawaii By Air (http://www.amazon.com/Shooting-Star-Attempt-Hawaii-ebook/dp/B005L3RPUY) about Mildred Doran, written by her nephew. I bought the Kindle version today for $3. Should be an interesting read.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 12:40:09 PM

Gary
 "Let me ask you this, Harry. In all of your experience as a canoeist on rivers and streams did you ever encounter a current that pushed your canoe back upstream against the prevailing current?
I didn't think so."

Actually, I did, many times,  when runing a rapids and dropping thru the "V" formed by the water moving down between two good-sized rocks, and needing a rest before continuing downriver, I would  move across the shear line into the eddy current that was moving upstream behind the rock and move up until  the nose of my canoe touched the rock and the upstream moving eddy current held me there as I rested.  It's a standard maneuver when running a long class 4 rapids.  Of course I wasn't in an open aluminium canoe in a class 4 rapids, I was either in my closed canoe or my kayak.  The maneuver needed to get across the shear line and into the eddy behind the rock without overturning is tricky.  It involves "planting" the paddle in the eddy and leaning the canoe (kayak) so that the bottom is towards the eddy and then rotating about the paddle as the booat moves into the eddy.  Even trickier getting back into the main current after resting, but basically the same technique except that the main current is moving much faster than the eddy.  Turned over many times and had to do an "Eskimo Roll to get upright.  Also had to exit the canoe/kayak by falling out upside-down into the rapids and hanging onto the craft.  That's fun also.

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 18, 2012, 12:41:46 PM

Gary
A summary from  Encyclopedia Britannica online(see below for http location)
"lateen sail, triangular sail that was of decisive importance (emphasis mine, hjh) to medieval navigation. The ancient square sail permitted sailing only before the wind; the lateen was the earliest fore-and-aft sail. The triangular sail was affixed to a long yard or crossbar, mounted at its middle to the top of the mast and angled to extend aft far above the mast and forward down nearly to the deck. The sail, its free corner secured near the stern, was capable of taking the wind on either side, and, by enabling the vessel to tack into the wind, the lateen immensely increased the potential of the sailing ship.(emphasis mine, hjh)The lateen is believed to have been used in the eastern Mediterranean as early as the 2nd century ce, possibly imported from Egypt or the Persian Gulf. Its effective use by the Arabs caused its rapid spread throughout the Mediterranean, contributing significantly to the resurgence of medieval commerce. Combined with the square sail, it produced the ocean-conquering full-rigged ship. The Sunfish class of one-design sailboats is lateen gged."

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/331395/lateen-sail (http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/331395/lateen-sail)   - 83k - Cached - Similar pages



On a canoeing/fishing trip on Lake Isabel in the Quetico, I fabricated a hasty lateen sail and mounted it on a mast and attached it to my smooth-bottomed 17 foot  Sears-Roebuck canoe.  We, (me, my son, and his friend, they were 14 at the time) then "sailed" up the lake with the wind, then came back to camp tacking against the wind.  Great fun but a lot of bailing cause of the lean of the canoe as we tacked into the wind.  I can see where a keel, even a small one like the one on a Grumman canoe, would have helped resist the leaning.

Hey, this is fun, almost like Dr Seuss and Oh, the places you'll go and the things you'll see!
I'm familiar with the lateen sail, I've sailed sunfish and sailboards which also use a kind if lateen sail. Something you might not have noticed is that sunfish and sailboards have centerboards (called daggerboards because they slide through a slot in the hull) that extend below the water as keels, providing lateral resistance and allowing them to be sailed close to the wind.

I too have fashioned sails when crossing lakes in a canoe and I have gotten them to sail upwind because a canoe is hard to push sideways due to the shape of the hull and the long keel. But to get the best performance out of a sailing canoe I also attached "leeboards" on each side of the canoe that extended down into the water to act as a keel. If you are ever in Holland you will see traditional workboats fitted out with "leeboards" for the same purpose. Here, is a picture, (http://chestofbooks.com/crafts/children/The-Scientific-American-Boy/images/The-Indian-Canoe-Fitted-with-Lanteen-Sail-and-Lee-Boards.jpg)  and here. (http://www.merrimackcanoes.com/images/canoe-sailing/canoe-sailing-leeboard%20thwart%202.jpg) You like Wikipedia (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FLeeboard&ei=2SdmT8q6KfDaiQL298WiDw&usg=AFQjCNG2_FyoyKFFzPmYgAV7GkFsGwkRSg&sig2=Td0d6PIXleJscKA5NfwvjA). When sailing a boat equipped with a centerboard instead of a fixed keel, you lower the centerboard when sailing upwind because the lateral resistance provided by the board is necessary to allow you to sail upwind but you pull up the centerboard when sailing downwind because it is not needed then and by pulling it up you get rid of its drag.

Experience is a powerful teacher which is why, in flight training, we arrange events that teach things to the student and these lessons stick with a person and are much stronger than something read from a book or seen in a video. I believe that your personal experience in being able to sail a canoe is coloring your thinking about this point and causing you to downgrade contrary information provided by the Air Force Survival Manual as to the ability of a life raft to be sailed against the wind. I have been trying to point out that your experience does not accurately duplicate the situation in a life raft so you should give more credit to the Air Force Manual, drafted by professionals charged with the serious duty to save airmen's lives.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 18, 2012, 12:44:45 PM

Gary
 "Let me ask you this, Harry. In all of your experience as a canoeist on rivers and streams did you ever encounter a current that pushed your canoe back upstream against the prevailing current?
I didn't think so."

Actually, I did, many times,  when runing a rapids and dropping thru the "V" formed by the water moving down between two good-sized rocks, and needing a rest before continuing downriver, I would  move across the shear line into the eddy current that was moving upstream behind the rock and move up until  the nose of my canoe touched the rock and the upstream moving eddy current held me there as I rested.  It's a standard maneuver when running a long class 4 rapids.  Of course I wasn't in an open aluminium canoe in a class 4 rapids, I was either in my closed canoe or my kayak.  The maneuver needed to get across the shear line and into the eddy behind the rock without overturning is tricky.  It involves "planting" the paddle in the eddy and leaning the canoe (kayak) so that the bottom is towards the eddy and then rotating about the paddle as the booat moves into the eddy.  Even trickier getting back into the main current after resting, but basically the same technique except that the main current is moving much faster than the eddy.  Turned over many times and had to do an "Eskimo Roll to get upright.  Also had to exit the canoe/kayak by falling out upside-down into the rapids and hanging onto the craft.  That's fun also.

That sounds like fun, but cold. Did you ever find an eddy that pushed you back upstream to where you put your canoe into the river?

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 01:09:33 PM

Yeppers, the large rapidly moving rivers in Wisconsin in the spring can be cold.  That's why I wore a wet-suit, bootees, gloves and high-flotation life preserver.  By wearing a neoprene "skirt" stretched over the cockpit of the canoe/kayak and fastened to my waist I became a part of the craft and water couldn't get into the canoe/kayak.  Until ya turn over and have to exit the craft. But even then not a lot of water gets nto the craft cause there are air-filled flotation "bags"  fore and aft of the cockpit.

No, never encountered an eddy that long, the objective was always to get downstream as safely as possible in as challenging a river as posible without losing your life or limb or craft or "stuff".Kinda like flying, hours of boredom separated by moments of sheer terror, on ly without the boredom, LOL.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 01:37:50 PM

Ok, Credit is due to the AF Manual, but its statement "You can't go far in a raft."(emphasis mine, hjh) is demonstrably wrong.  Rickenberger went far, Zamperini went far, the Robertsons went far, I don't know how many others went far.  I'm not including Captain Bligh cause he and his men were in a boat.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 18, 2012, 01:44:10 PM

Yeppers, the large rapidly moving rivers in Wisconsin in the spring can be cold.  That's why I wore a wet-suit, bootees, gloves and high-flotation life preserver.  By wearing a neoprene "skirt" stretched over the cockpit of the canoe/kayak and fastened to my waist I became a part of the craft and water couldn't get into the canoe/kayak.  Until ya turn over and have to exit the craft. But even then not a lot of water gets nto the craft cause there are air-filled flotation "bags"  fore and aft of the cockpit.

No, never encountered an eddy that long, the objective was always to get downstream as safely as possible in as challenging a river as posible without losing your life or limb or craft or "stuff".Kinda like flying, hours of boredom separated by moments of sheer terror, on ly without the boredom, LOL.
I've canoed on the Wisconsin River between the Dells and Portage, nothing too challenging there.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 18, 2012, 01:56:55 PM

Ok, Credit is due to the AF Manual, but its statement "You can't go far in a raft."(emphasis mine, hjh) is demonstrably wrong.  Rickenberger went far, Zamperini went far, the Robertsons went far, I don't know how many others went far.  I'm not including Captain Bligh cause he and his men were in a boat.
No it isn't "demonstrably wrong," a couple of extreme cases do not disprove a general rule. For instance, the record for holding one's breath while freediving is 4 minutes and 24 seconds.  (http://dsc.discovery.com/adventure/5-longest-free-dives-of-all-time.html) So since we know that this is a fact, will you permit to me chain a hundred pound anchor to your feet and drop you into the ocean if I promise to pull you up after only 4 minutes and zero seconds? Does this one record event change the general rule that people can't  hold their breath for more than 4 minutes?

( If I remember correctly, the Robertson's also had a dinghy in addition to their life raft.)

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 18, 2012, 01:58:23 PM

I found an interesting note about Ms Doran. She was wearing a pair of Oxford Shoes when she boarded the plane. There is a nice picture of these shoes on page 11 of this PDF file (http://www.cslfdn.org/pdf/Issue93_P4.pdf). If someone could determine a scale based on an object in the photo, like a belt for example, perhaps her shoe size could be determined as was other photos associated with Earhart.

I read an analysis of the shoes at TIGHAR here labeled "Shoe Fetish" (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/Bulletins/29_ShoeFetish1/29_ShoeFetish1.html). Although the manufacturer believed the Cat Paw replacement heel to have been made in the mid-1930s, there does not seem to be a definitive date given for the production year of the heel.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 02:16:07 PM

I wasn't talking about the Wisconsin River, that's a float river.  I was talking about the rivers in Wiscinsin like The Wolf, a class 3 river with many class 4 rapids; the Peshtigo, class 3-1/2 river with many class 4 rapids and even one class 5, The North and South Forks of the Flambeau, and the Bois Brule, almost a class 3 but with two long stretches that are class 4 rapids.

The only time I ever bailed out, i. e. stopped canoeing and walked out, from was the St. Francis River in Missouri/Arkansas during the spring.  Every rapids was at least class 3' most were Class 4 and hadn't even got to the stretch that was marked as really dangerous on the map.  That stretch was about 4 miles long of continnuous class 4's with a coupla class 5s thrown in.  Discretion became the better part of valor and we all just quit and carried our canooes out and hitched a ride back to our cars at the put in point.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 02:31:51 PM

Gary
Yes,  they had a dinghy and a raft.  There were 6 of them, Mr and Mrs, their daughter, twin sons and a crew member that they took on board near the Panama Canal.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 18, 2012, 03:07:40 PM

Sorry about the thread drift (more like  hijacking, hehe)  I'll stifle myself. Or at least I'll try.  LOL
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 19, 2012, 12:27:29 PM

Gary
A coupla of links to general articles about the Hawaiian Lee Counter- Current (HLCC)  These articles reference other articles describing the research.  I don't have access to the Science journal online so I haven't read the articles by Dr.Xie.  I'm trying to get access.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Wake/ - 27k - Cached - Similar pages

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaiian_Islands - 136k - Cached - Similar pages

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Erik on March 19, 2012, 08:10:30 PM
Sorry for the interuption..... Hot off the press....

The US State department will be having a live press briefing on AE tomorrow morning Tuesday 9am.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/03/186037.htm (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/03/186037.htm)

Live streaming video from what I hear.

http://video.state.gov/ (http://video.state.gov/)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 19, 2012, 11:29:32 PM
Sorry for the interuption..... Hot off the press....

The US State department will be having a live press briefing on AE tomorrow morning Tuesday 9am.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/03/186037.htm (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/03/186037.htm)

Live streaming video from what I hear.

http://video.state.gov/ (http://video.state.gov/)

Read this (http://www.ketknbc.com/news/us-reportedly-to-search-again-for-amelia-earharts-plane).
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 20, 2012, 02:26:36 AM

Gary
A coupla of links to general articles about the Hawaiian Lee Counter- Current (HLCC)  These articles reference other articles describing the research.  I don't have access to the Science journal online so I haven't read the articles by Dr.Xie.  I'm trying to get access.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Wake/ - 27k - Cached - Similar pages

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaiian_Islands - 136k - Cached - Similar pages
I looked at your sources and I have attached the two charts from the Wikepedia article that you referenced. They do not support your prior arguments. You claimed that there was a south setting current created in the wake of the Hawaiian islands that penetrated the location where Doran presumably crashed and that this current was in a position to push Doran towards Gardner. Neither of the sources you posted shows any such current. The only current produced by the wake of the islands is west of Hawaii flowing eastward and Doran crashed 600 miles south of Hawaii, nowhere near any anomalous currents. The second attached chart that you relied on shows only the same westward flowing equatorial current in Doran's area that is shown on the pilot charts that I posted, in the areas of interest.

You also claimed that there were currents up to 4 miles per hour in the area. The highest current speed shown on the chart you relied on is only 0.2 meters per second, which is only 0.4 mph, so you were off by a factor of 10.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 20, 2012, 06:59:35 PM

When the Navy was searching for the lost airplanes when they disappeared, they put a few guys in the same type of life raft to see where they would drift to. It was so variable that they could not make any conclusions out of their test. They pulled the sailors out of the raft and gave up.

In general the ocean currents are moving around 2.5 knots, the trade winds at 10.5 knots but these are just averages. The real world is much more dynamic and rapidly changing. Check out an example animation (http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_slp) here that gives the forecast out to 180 hrs.

It seems to be that the surface winds would have the greatest impact as to where survivors might have drifted off to. It would probably be impossible to predict what the winds in the Pacific were back in 1927. Perhaps you could dig up an old shop log but that seems doubtful. I am not sure if the Navy was keeping logs back then or whether or not they even bothered to generate a report of their search attempts.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 21, 2012, 04:15:28 AM

When the Navy was searching for the lost airplanes when they disappeared, they put a few guys in the same type of life raft to see where they would drift to. It was so variable that they could not make any conclusions out of their test. They pulled the sailors out of the raft and gave up.

In general the ocean currents are moving around 2.5 knots, the trade winds at 10.5 knots but these are just averages. The real world is much more dynamic and rapidly changing. Check out an example animation (http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_slp) here that gives the forecast out to 180 hrs.

It seems to be that the surface winds would have the greatest impact as to where survivors might have drifted off to. It would probably be impossible to predict what the winds in the Pacific were back in 1927. Perhaps you could dig up an old shop log but that seems doubtful. I am not sure if the Navy was keeping logs back then or whether or not they even bothered to generate a report of their search attempts.
1. You latest animation also shows how constant the trade winds are in the area of interest. The animation shows variations in the far north Pacific but not in the area of interest. Start the animation and place your mouse pointer at 150 west and 10 north so that you don't get distracted by the changes going on further north, and you will see that the trade winds are very constant, east or northeast 100% of the time.

2. You again make the claim for extremly high current speeds yet all the sources you have given so far do not support that statement. The previous one you gave only shows 0.2 meters per second, 0.4 mph. The government issued Pilot Charts show 0.7 knots for the are in question.

3. We can be fairly certain that the information in the pilot charts accurately represent the conditions existing in the area in question over the many day period due to the principle of "reduction to the mean." The pilot charts incorporate more than a hundred years of data and are designed to be valid for a particular month of any year, including 1927.

4. Contrary to your claim that the Navy give up in predicting the drift of a life raft there are many tables in the National SAR Manual to accomplish making that prediction. The tables state, "With sustained winds of 6 hours or more, wind current speed will be 5% of wind speed with direction downwind." The winds in the area where you presume Doran splashed down are out of the east to northeast 90% of the time at force 4 which is 11 to 16 knots, 13.5 average. 5% of 13.5 is 0.675 knots, a whole lot less that the 2.5 knots that you claim and this current speed is the same as the 0.7 knots as shown in the Pilot chart for the area.

5. Since I had my National SAR Manual (1986) opened I scanned the table of water needs. Look at the graph for 80° F, about the air temperature for Doran, and you will see that it takes only one quart per day to sustain life indefinitely IN THE DESERT and less water is needed in other climates, such as on the sea.   

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 21, 2012, 04:32:29 AM

I need to get to work but here is an animation of the South Pacific (http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=spac_slp). I am curious why you emphasize the winds out of the East and North-East, that is exactly what I have been saying since this thread was started. Are you suggesting that winds from the E or NE would have blown them back to Hawaii?

As to the "average trade wind speeds" and "average current speeds", just type them in to Google and you will see plenty of references.

The charts over the past one hundred years are useful in general terms, like for plotting a trip, but like any Almanac, they are not intended to give you accurate real-time data. If someone is lost at see, real-time observations are used not Almanacs.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 21, 2012, 10:32:08 AM

Heath
Yes, the old "general" (as averaged over some period of time, days, weeks, months, years, well you get the point) compared to the "specific" (exists at a definite time and place) conundrum.  It reminds me of the story about the man 6'-6" tall that drowned standing up in the River with an "average" depth of 5'.  He stepped into the 8' hole that wasn't on the chart even though it was included in the calculation of the average.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Erik on March 21, 2012, 11:05:19 AM
The Colorado deck logs give a good idea of what the currents and winds were like.  The Colorado sailed from Hawaii to Gardner.  It's logs indicated sea currents generally from the east at 1-2 knots (sometimes as much as 3-4), and the wind speeds generally from the east around 10 knots (sometimes as much as 20-30).
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 21, 2012, 11:19:03 AM

Erik
Thanks for that info. (now comes he "however")  However, Hawaii is in the Northern Hemisphere and Gardner is in the Southern Hemispere  Hawaii is about 2000 miles North of Gardner and I wonder how they got thru the North Equatorial Counter-Current and the South Equatorial Counter Current both of which flow from West to East (that's why they are called "Counter-Currents")??
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 21, 2012, 12:49:04 PM

Perhaps they weren't measureing the currents wwhen they were near and crossing the equator?  Who knows??
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 21, 2012, 01:37:14 PM

Erik
Thanks for that info. (now comes he "however")  However, Hawaii is in the Northern Hemisphere and Gardner is in the Southern Hemispere  Hawaii is about 2000 miles North of Gardner and I wonder how they got thru the North Equatorial Counter-Current and the South Equatorial Counter Current both of which flow from West to East (that's why they are called "Counter-Currents")??
And how do they get through the SOUTH-east trade winds that exist south of the counter-current in August? These winds from the south-east blow towards the NORTH-west and the north blowing component would keep a raft from drifting further south for the necessary 600 nautical miles to get to Gardner.

Your example of a six foot man drowning in a river with a five foot average depth, while humorous, is not relevant for several reasons. First, it depends on how fine grained the average is. If the average depth of the river for its entire length is five feet then for that one spot it did not provide a reasonable estimate of the depth that the guy would encounter. But if there was a chart of the average depth broken up into one foot squares then he would have seen the eight foot hole in the average listed for that spot. The pilot charts break the ocean up into 5 degree squares (300 NM on a side) and also in to 12, one month periods, per year so the accuracy of the prediction for each square and month is of a much higher accuracy than in your humorous example.

If your guy jumped into the river 30 or 40 times it is highly unlikely that he would land in that 8 foot deep hole more than once and he would encounter depths on each jump close to the average 5 foot depth most of the time especially as he was moving down the shoreline between each leap just as the life raft would be doing in the open ocean. You're right, if you have actual measured weather data for the period then your use that to predict the drift, do you have that data for Doran? If you don't have that data then you must use the best available data and that is contained in the pilot chart. I have already said that on any particular day that the average trade wind might not be present, it might be the one day out of a hundred when the wind is out of the south-west, or on the second day or even the third. But for a 30 or 40 day period we can be very sure that the winds encountered were much closer to the winds depicted on the pilot chart than to the outlier south-west wind.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 21, 2012, 02:24:03 PM
Quote
And how do they get through the SOUTH-east trade winds that exist south of the counter-current? These winds from the south-east blow towards the NORTH-west and the north blowing component would keep a raft from drifting further south for the necessary 600 nautical miles to get to Gardner.

I am a bit confused here, are you saying that the seasonal wind patterns, in August with be out of the South-East?

I posted previously, the Northern Pacific (http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_slp) and Southern Pacific (http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=spac_slp) animations for the 168 hours (1 week), just as an example, the winds would be out of the North-East (mostly) and the East all the way from Hawaii down to the Phoenix island group.

Are you suggesting that the wind always blows from the South-East South of the counter current? If that is the case, why is that not the pattern this week?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 21, 2012, 02:55:26 PM

From "Shooting Star: The First Attempt By A Woman To Reach Hawaii By Air":

On August 20, the Navy conducted an experiment by placing three men in a rubber raft similar to the one carried by Miss Doran Golden Eagle and Dallas Spirit. They discovered that although the seas were relatively calm, waves washed over the sides necessitating constant bailing. In addition, light winds blew the raft so that the ocean currents did not prevail, and its course was erratic. And, the Navy concluded the small craft was uncomfortably overcrowded with three passengers. As the hours and days passed the conclusion became clear; neither the crew of Miss Doran or Golden Eagle had survived.

The Navy first intended to search for a week. However, the fact that John Rodgers and his crew had drifted and sailed four-hundred-and-fifty miles in nine days, the Navy kept up a limited search for the downed planes for another two days before giving up On Thursday, August 25, all ships began to head for port. The last area to be searched was north and west of the Hawaiian Islands in case the fliers had overshot their target.

DuRose, Richard (2011-09-02). Shooting Star: The First Attempt By A Woman To Reach Hawaii By Air (Kindle Locations 1121-1128).  Kindle Edition.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 21, 2012, 03:17:06 PM
Quote
And how do they get through the SOUTH-east trade winds that exist south of the counter-current? These winds from the south-east blow towards the NORTH-west and the north blowing component would keep a raft from drifting further south for the necessary 600 nautical miles to get to Gardner.

I am a bit confused here, are you saying that the seasonal wind patterns, in August with be out of the South-East?

I posted previously, the Northern Pacific (http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_slp) and Southern Pacific (http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=spac_slp) animations for the 168 hours (1 week), just as an example, the winds would be out of the North-East (mostly) and the East all the way from Hawaii down to the Phoenix island group.

Are you suggesting that the wind always blows from the South-East South of the counter current? If that is the case, why is that not the pattern this week?
No, the wind south of the counter current does not ALWAYS blow from the south but it does most of the time in August and over a period of days it can be expected to be out of the south a whole lot more often than out the north, see attached excerpt from the August pilot chart.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 21, 2012, 03:29:53 PM

Just a guess, but I would think that those young men (Peddlar and Knope) would be paddling their raft as strenously as they could in order to maintain a desired direction.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 21, 2012, 03:42:27 PM
Quote
see attached excerpt from the August pilot chart.

Can you post a link to the source of your charts or are these scanned images?

I would like to see the chart for March.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 21, 2012, 04:44:50 PM
Quote
see attached excerpt from the August pilot chart.

Can you post a link to the source of your charts or are these scanned images?

I would like to see the chart for March.
I did a long time ago, go to message # 87. (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,616.msg11259.html#msg11259)

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 21, 2012, 05:55:07 PM

Ok, attached is the chart for March. Do you think that the chart is a good reflection of reality (See animations posted previously)? Most of the readings between Hawaii and the Phoenix Islands on the chart would indicate a prevailing most Easterly wind. Looking at the real data, the winds are soundly out of the North-East in the region of interest.

While they might be a good measure on average, they are an approximation that often does not reflect reality.

Like I said before, the weather systems are far more dynamic than can be captured on monthly almanacs.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Erik on March 21, 2012, 06:03:26 PM

Erik
Thanks for that info. (now comes he "however")  However, Hawaii is in the Northern Hemisphere and Gardner is in the Southern Hemispere  Hawaii is about 2000 miles North of Gardner and I wonder how they got thru the North Equatorial Counter-Current and the South Equatorial Counter Current both of which flow from West to East (that's why they are called "Counter-Currents")??

Dunno.  But the Colorado's logs include hourly postings throughtout the 2000 mile journey.  Most of the logs indicate ranges from NNE to SSE, all 'westerly'.  There are no readings that indicate 'easterly' flow.

Here is a sample.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 02:49:02 AM

Ok, attached is the chart for March. Do you think that the chart is a good reflection of reality (See animations posted previously)? Most of the readings between Hawaii and the Phoenix Islands on the chart would indicate a prevailing most Easterly wind. Looking at the real data, the winds are soundly out of the North-East in the region of interest.

While they might be a good measure on average, they are an approximation that often does not reflect reality.

Like I said before, the weather systems are far more dynamic than can be captured on monthly almanacs.
Well now you are purposefully trying to compare apples with oranges. You link to an animation of the winds in March and then claim that pilot charts are not accurate because the pilot chart for August, which does not show significant northerly winds, does not accurately show the winds in March. Here's some news for you, the winds are different in March than in August.

When you compare the forecast winds in your animation (and they are just forecasts since they show an animation for several days that have not yet arrived so you do not have firm data even in the animation.) Contrary to your disparagement of the accuracy of the pilot charts, if you look at the pilot chart wind roses carefully you will see that they are in agreement with your animation. Perhaps you are not interpreting the wind roses correctly for the March pilot chart but they accurately predict significant northeast winds, but with the predominate winds being straight out of the east as we see in the animation. I have attached an annotated March pilot chart calling your attention to the northeast symbols. So, contrary to what you have claimed, the animation actually confirms the accuracy of the March pilot chart and, by implication, that the August pilot charts are also accurate. I have a suggestion for you, set your alarm clock for August and when you wake up, get the animation for the August winds and then compare them to the wind roses in the August pilot chart.  You can also compare the March annotated pilot chart with the annotated August pilot chart that I have also attached. You can see that in August there are southeast winds between 31% and 48% of the time and virtually no winds out of the north which is very different from the March winds that are between 15% and 25% out of the northeast.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 22, 2012, 03:59:29 AM
Quote
but with the predominate winds being straight out of the east as we see in the animation

I was not comparing apples to oranges, I was comparing the March charts to a more than likely very accurate model of the winds over the next week. The point is that the chart indicate a dominate Easterly when for most of the week there are dominate North-Easterly winds all the way from Hawaii to the Phoenix island group. The point is that you cannot make a prediction of where an object would float to in the Pacific based solely on the charts and simple probability calculations. Obviously we do not have any data from 1927 to compare with but we can be fairly certain that if the conditions do not exactly match in March they will not exactly match in August. I have a pretty good memory so we will review this in August.

I believe that you had originally inferred that the Ms Doran could not have possibly ended up in the Phoenix island group based upon these charts and the dominate wind direction predictions in the charts. Are you still holding to that position or have you had time to reconsider?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 04:47:12 AM
Quote
but with the predominate winds being straight out of the east as we see in the animation

I was not comparing apples to oranges, I was comparing the March charts to a more than likely very accurate model of the winds over the next week. The point is that the chart indicate a dominate Easterly when for most of the week there are dominate North-Easterly winds all the way from Hawaii to the Phoenix island group. The point is that you cannot make a prediction of where an object would float to in the Pacific based solely on the charts and simple probability calculations. Obviously we do not have any data from 1927 to compare with but we can be fairly certain that if the conditions do not exactly match in March they will not exactly match in August. I have a pretty good memory so we will review this in August.

I believe that you had originally inferred that the Ms Doran could not have possibly ended up in the Phoenix island group based upon these charts and the dominate wind direction predictions in the charts. Are you still holding to that position or have you had time to reconsider?
Absolutely, they are the best information we have about the weather conditions that existed at the time.  If you have actual data then that would be better, but you don't. And the March pilot chart also shows northeast winds from Hawaii down to the area of the counter-current, just like the animation. And, as I also said, the pilot chart also shows significant northeast wind percentages in the area just south of the counter-current.  It is too bad you didn't get animations for the first three weeks of March. So you apparently believe that a one week's sample of data in just one year is a more accurate predictor of the weather conditions encountered 85 years ago than all the many years of data that was compiled into the pilot charts. That's an interesting position to take and conflicts what we know about statistical analysis. If you don't want to accept the pilot charts then everything becomes jell-o. So my new theory is that in August 1927 there were freaky westerly winds and that she actually drifted east and ended up in South America, married a native chief, and lived happily ever after.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 05:01:34 AM
Quote
but with the predominate winds being straight out of the east as we see in the animation

I was not comparing apples to oranges, I was comparing the March charts to a more than likely very accurate model of the winds over the next week. The point is that the chart indicate a dominate Easterly when for most of the week there are dominate North-Easterly winds all the way from Hawaii to the Phoenix island group. The point is that you cannot make a prediction of where an object would float to in the Pacific based solely on the charts and simple probability calculations. Obviously we do not have any data from 1927 to compare with but we can be fairly certain that if the conditions do not exactly match in March they will not exactly match in August. I have a pretty good memory so we will review this in August.

And get them for every week in August.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 22, 2012, 06:12:16 AM
Quote
If you don't want to accept the pilot charts then everything becomes jell-o.

They are not an absolute, they are averages for a month over many years. They are charts are more or less averages of averages. As I stated, you cannot rely on them for any given day, week, or weeks of real world data.

My point is that you made the claim that the Ms Doran crew could not possibly have ended up in the Phoenix islands and you presented these charts are the evidence. I think the evidence is clear that such claims cannot be made.

I am not stating that they did end up there, I am saying they might have ended there. I am not presented any evidence to the contrary that they must have ended up there.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 11:31:32 AM
Quote
If you don't want to accept the pilot charts then everything becomes jell-o.

They are not an absolute, they are averages for a month over many years. They are charts are more or less averages of averages. As I stated, you cannot rely on them for any given day, week, or weeks of real world data.


I have stated before that I agree with you that you can't predict the weather for any one particular day or even for several days in a month, but you can rely on the pilot charts for the conditions existing during an extended period such as would have been required for Doran to reach Gardner due to "reduction to the mean" and the "law of large numbers." Is it "possible," sure, anything is "possible," martians could have landed and taken her there in their flying saucer. Is it very likely, no.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 22, 2012, 11:35:01 AM

I'm trying to understand something.   The ocean is divided up into 300nm squares?  That's 345 statute miles square, right?  mmm that amounts to 119,025 square miles right?

And in that   119,025 square mile area, how many points are measured to find an "average" wind and ocean flow that characterizes the conditions in the time, space  continuum at the time of measurement in each of those 119,025 square mile squares?
And how many times a day, week, month are these measurements made in each 119,025 squqre mile area to come up with the averages displayed on a monthly chart?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 22, 2012, 11:59:37 AM

"So my new theory is that in August 1937 there were freaky westerly winds and that she actually drifted east and ended up in South America, married a native chief, and lived happily ever after. "(emphasis mine, hjh)

Oh, by the way (BTW) the Dole Derby was held in August of 1927, not 1937. But that's ok 10 years when averaged over a century or so isn't so bad.  The native chief prolly didn't have a calendar anyway, and prolly couldn't count either.  LOL
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 12:01:05 PM

I'm trying to understand something.   The ocean is divided up into 300nm squares?  That's 345 statute miles square, right?  mmm that amounts to 119,025 square miles right?

And in that   119,025 square mile area, how many points are measured to find an "average" wind and ocean flow that characterizes the conditions in the time, space  continuum at the time of measurement in each of those 119,025 square mile squares?
And how many times a day, week, month are these measurements made in each 119,025 squqre mile area to come up with the averages displayed on a monthly chart?

You got something better?

And if you look at statistics, you know that the range of uncertainty gets smaller very fast as the sampling of the data goes up. Just pay attention to the TV news today about the election campaign, the polls give the range of uncertainty in the various polls and the samples there are very small compared to the data sampling used to develop the pilot charts.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 12:02:33 PM

"So my new theory is that in August 1937 there were freaky westerly winds and that she actually drifted east and ended up in South America, married a native chief, and lived happily ever after. "(emphasis mine, hjh)

Oh, by the way (BTW) the Dole Derby was held in August of 1927, not 1937. But that's ok 10 years when averaged over a century or so isn't so bad.  The native chief prolly didn't have a calendar anyway, and prolly couldn't count either.  LOL
O.K. a typo, I did state, correctly, that it was 85 years ago. I'll correct it.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 22, 2012, 12:46:29 PM

Somethimg Better?
Yes, having survived a ditching of my plane after fuel exhaustion, and managing to get safely into my raft, I would wet my finger with saliva and hold it up to estimate how hard and in which direction the wind was blowing, and tossing something that could float  into the water to see how fast and in which direction the current was flowing.  Then, having that live-time data for my location, my raft buddy and I would paddle, sail(if I had a sail as part of the survival gear in my raft) and use the drift to my best advantage to find our way to habitated land.  (Even if there are only native chiefs to be found there.)

Or We might succumb to common wisdom that "you can't go very far in a raft" (oh, that's right, that didn't come along for 34 years, 1961), so we would just lie back and die.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 22, 2012, 02:17:37 PM
Quote
Is it "possible," sure, anything is "possible," martians could have landed and taken her there in their flying saucer. Is it very likely, no.

Since you do not believe that AE made it to Gardner Island, do you suppose that it would have been very unlikely that a woman would have gone missing sometime prior to 1940 on a remote Pacific island and gone completely unnoticed?

It seems very unlikely that any woman would have gone missing in that era without much fanfare in the press, missing from a plane or even a pleasure boat.

If this was a western woman (assuming that Gallagher could tell the difference between a man's shoe and a woman's shoe), and was not a castaway, is it not highly unlikely that anyone with her would have left her bones on the surface? No burial? That seems unlikely as well.

And to be found with a sextant box, that seems highly unlikely as well but there it is.

So who was this unlikely woman that had the audacity to leave her bones on Gardner?

---

Gallagher:

Some months ago working party on Gardner discovered human skull - this was buried and I only recently heard about it. Thorough search has now produced more bones (including lower jaw) part of a shoe a bottle and a sextant box. It would appear that (a) Skeleton is possibly that of a woman,
(b) Shoe was a womans and probably size 10,
(c) Sextant box has two numbers on it 3500 ( stencilled ) and 1542– sextant being old fashioned and probably painted over with black enamel. Bones look more than four years old to me but there seems to be very slight chance that this may be remains of Amelia Earhardt. If United States authorities find that above evidence fits into general description, perhaps they could supply some dental information as many teeth are intact. Am holding latest finds for present but have not exhumed skull. There is no local indication that this discovery is related to wreck of the "Norwich City".  Gallagher.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 03:54:11 PM
Quote
Is it "possible," sure, anything is "possible," martians could have landed and taken her there in their flying saucer. Is it very likely, no.

Since you do not believe that AE made it to Gardner Island, do you suppose that it would have been very unlikely that a woman would have gone missing sometime prior to 1940 on a remote Pacific island and gone completely unnoticed?

It seems very unlikely that any woman would have gone missing in that era without much fanfare in the press, missing from a plane or even a pleasure boat.

If this was a western woman (assuming that Gallagher could tell the difference between a man's shoe and a woman's shoe), and was not a castaway, is it not highly unlikely that anyone with her would have left her bones on the surface? No burial?

Excuse me, as I read the quote from Gallagher that you included, it said that the skull was buried. Am I not reading this correctly?
Quote
That seems unlikely as well.

And to be found with a sextant box, that seems highly unlikely as well but there it is.

So who was this unlikely woman that had the audacity to leave her bones on Gardner?

---

Gallagher:

Some months ago working party on Gardner discovered human skull - this was buried and I only recently heard about it. Thorough search has now produced more bones (including lower jaw) part of a shoe a bottle and a sextant box. It would appear that (a) Skeleton is possibly that of a woman,
(b) Shoe was a womans and probably size 10,
(c) Sextant box has two numbers on it 3500 ( stencilled ) and 1542– sextant being old fashioned and probably painted over with black enamel. Bones look more than four years old to me but there seems to be very slight chance that this may be remains of Amelia Earhardt. If United States authorities find that above evidence fits into general description, perhaps they could supply some dental information as many teeth are intact. Am holding latest finds for present but have not exhumed skull. There is no local indication that this discovery is related to wreck of the "Norwich City".  Gallagher.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 22, 2012, 04:26:29 PM
The Bones Chronology (http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Bones_Chronology.html)

I believe that I had read somewhere that it was partially buried.

---

Your telegram No. 71. Information has been passed on to the High Commissioner particularly with a view to identifying number of sextant box. Information on following points, where possible, would be of interest:
(a) How deep was skeleton buried when found,
(b) How far from shore,
(c) In your opinion does burial appear deliberate or could it be accounted for by encroachments of sand, etc.,
(d) Is site of an exposed one (i.e. if the body of Mrs. Putnam had lain there is it likely that it would have been spotted by aerial searchers)?
(e) In what state of preservation is shoe,
(f) If well preserved does it appears to be of modern style or old fashioned,
(g) Is there any indication as to contents of bottle. Do you know anything of wreck of "Norwich City" — e.g. when did it takes place, were any lives lost and how long were survivors marooned at Gardner Island? Resident.

---

Your telegram No. 66.
(a) Skeleton was not buried – skull was buried after discovery by natives (coconut crabs had scattered many bones),
(b) l00 feet from high water ordinary springs,
(c) Improbable,
(d) Only part of sole remains,
(f) Appears to have been stoutish walking shoe or heavy sandal,
(g) "Benedictine" bottle but no indication of contents, There are indications that person was alive when cast ashore – fire, birds killed, etc., "Norwich City" wrecked and caught fire 1930 or 1932. Number of crew sailed to Fiji in lifeboat, remainder picked up later at Gardner by "Ralum". Think Board of Enquiry held Suva - loss of life not known. This information derived from gossip only.
Gallagher.

---


Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 04:37:33 PM

Somethimg Better?

By asking if you had something better I thought it was clear that I was asking if you had actual weather information for the area for August 1927 that we can now use to analyze her possible drift, do you?
Quote
Yes, having survived a ditching of my plane after fuel exhaustion, and managing to get safely into my raft, I would wet my finger with saliva and hold it up to estimate how hard and in which direction the wind was blowing, and tossing something that could float  into the water to see how fast and in which direction the current was flowing. 

Harry, Harry, Harry. I know that you know better than this. The only way to measure the current by dropping something over the side is if you are at anchor so that your boat doesn't move itself with the current. I bet you can think back to a time when you were conoeing and you stopped paddling and your canoe came to a stop trough the water, you peeled an orange and threw the peel over the side and the peel just stayed in the same place, right next to your canoe. You, in your canoe, and the peel were driifting at the exact same speed in the current.

A similar problem with measuring the true wind, you could only measure the relative wind with your method so in order to determine the true wind you would have to know the speed and direction of the raft over the bottom and then do a vector diagram to come up with the true wind.
Quote

Then, having that live-time data for my location, my raft buddy and I would paddle, sail(if I had a sail as part of the survival gear in my raft) and use the drift to my best advantage to find our way to habitated land.  (Even if there are only native chiefs to be found there.)

Or We might succumb to common wisdom that "you can't go very far in a raft" (oh, that's right, that didn't come along for 34 years, 1961), so we would just lie back and die.

Since Doran was aiming for Hawaii she would know that Hawaii was the closest land and would attempt to head for it. There is even less reason to believe that Doran knew of the existence of the Phoenix Islands than that Earhart knew of their existence.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 22, 2012, 11:25:45 PM

Gary, Gary, Gary
I'm sure that you remember how the sailors of "Olden Days" estimated their speed.  They threw a log tied to a rope into the sea alongside the ship and timed the length of time it took for the log to appear  to move a known distance (two points marked on the ship's railing). It was assumed that the log remained stationary as the ship moved.   No easy  feat when measuring time with an hourglass.  The measurement was entered into a book which came to be called a "Log-Book"

As time progressed, the rope to which the log was tied had "knots" tied in it.  the log was dropped over the stern and assumed to remain stationary as the ship moved away from the log and dragging the rope along with it.  The log keeper counted the number of "knots" in the rope that were dragged thru his hands in a set period of time..  The distance between the knots was a fixed distance such that each knot in the fixed time represented a speed of one nautical mile per hour.  That's where the term "knot" came from.  It eliminated the calculation time by allowing the distance to be measured in a fixed time by just counting knots in the rope.  Ahh Progress.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 22, 2012, 11:37:45 PM

Gary, Gary, Gary
I'm sure that you remember how the sailors of "Olden Days" estimated their speed.  They threw a log tied to a rope into the sea alongside the ship and timed the length of time it took for the log to appear  to move a known distance (two points marked on the ship's railing). It was assumed that the log remained stationary as the ship moved.   No easy  feat when measuring time with an hourglass.  The measurement was entered into a book which came to be called a "Log-Book"

As time progressed, the rope to which the log was tied had "knots" tied in it.  the log was dropped over the stern and assumed to remain stationary as the ship moved away from the log and dragging the rope along with it.  The log keeper counted the number of "knots" in the rope that were dragged thru his hands in a set period of time..  The distance between the knots was a fixed distance such that each knot in the fixed time represented a speed of one nautical mile per hour.  That's where the term "knot" came from.  It eliminated the calculation time by allowing the distance to be measured in a fixed time by just counting knots in the rope.  Ahh Progress.
Of course, but that measures the speed of the boat through the water but tells you nothing about the current, the movement of the water over the bottom. You said, "tossing something that could float  into the water to see how fast and in which direction the current was flowing." You claimed that you could measure the direction and speed of the water with the equivalent of the log and that is not possible. To measure the current you must anchor your boat so that it cannot move with the current then the boat will stay stationary with respect to the bottom and the movement of the floating object past the boat will be at the same speed and direction as the water over the bottom so will be a measurement of the current.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 23, 2012, 10:13:57 AM

Gary
Making two measurements over a fixed distance, say the length of your canoe or raft, one with the current and one against the current allows the estimation of the speed of the current.  It's equal to the distance measured divided by the difference between the two measurements divided by 2 and then converted into mph using the conversion 22 feet per second equals 15 mph. 
Here's how ya do it.
Ya put the floater, say a red and white bobber in the water at the nose and paddle with the current and timing how long it takes to pass the bobber till it is at the stern, i.e. the length of the canoe, raft.  Then ya turn the canoe, raft around and do the same thing against the current.

It's a lot like the famous Michelson-Morley experiment that was done to determine the presence of the Aether thought to be the medium for propagating light.  They split a light beam into two parts and directed them over a fixed, known distance at right angles to each other and looked for a difference in time for each part to travel the distance.  That difference would tell them of the presence of the Aether.  They didn't find a difference and Einstein used their results to deduce that there was no Aether and no speed greater than the speed of light.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 23, 2012, 01:23:14 PM

Gary
Do you, have you, hiked?  I have and I made it a point to know the length of my pace.  I did this by walking a known distance (measured in feet) and counting the nmber of paces that it took to cover the distance, thus determining the length of my pace (30 inches).  Then, when hiking an unknown distance I counted the number of paces and multiplied by the known length of my pace to estimate the distance travelled.

Similarly, in my canoe I determined how many strokes it took to cover a known distance on a lake ( approx 4-1/2 feet per stroke) and then when counting strokes and multiplying by the distance per stroke I could estimate the distance travelled on another trip on another lake.

The Voyaguers in the Canadian Fur Trade specified distances as the number of "Pipes" smoked in covering a distance at a certain stroke cadence.  The pipe was made of clay and was of a consistent volume to allow a relatively fair measurement of time.

They measured distances on a portage  by the number of "poses" (pauses) it took to carry their load over the portage.  Each voyaguer was contracted  to carry two 90 lb packs over each portage.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 23, 2012, 03:26:51 PM

Gary
Do you, have you, hiked?  I have and I made it a point to know the length of my pace.  I did this by walking a known distance (measured in feet) and counting the nmber of paces that it took to cover the distance, thus determining the length of my pace (30 inches).  Then, when hiking an unknown distance I counted the number of paces and multiplied by the known length of my pace to estimate the distance travelled.

Similarly, in my canoe I determined how many strokes it took to cover a known distance on a lake ( approx 4-1/2 feet per stroke) and then when counting strokes and multiplying by the distance per stroke I could estimate the distance travelled on another trip on another lake.

The Voyaguers in the Canadian Fur Trade specified distances as the number of "Pipes" smoked in covering a distance at a certain stroke cadence.  The pipe was made of clay and was of a consistent volume to allow a relatively fair measurement of time.

They measured distances on a portage  by the number of "poses" (pauses) it took to carry their load over the portage.  Each voyaguer was contracted  to carry two 90 lb packs over each portage.
I pace 122 per 100 meters, that is what it was when we determined it in basic training in the army in 1966 and it is still exactly the same 122 paces today.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 23, 2012, 04:41:51 PM

gary

mmm  32.3 inches per pace, I wiuld guess your height as  5'-9 1/2" to 5;-10".  ??
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 23, 2012, 06:18:28 PM


It's a lot like the famous Michelson-Morley experiment that was done to determine the presence of the Aether thought to be the medium for propagating light.  They split a light beam into two parts and directed them over a fixed, known distance at right angles to each other and looked for a difference in time for each part to travel the distance.  That difference would tell them of the presence of the Aether.  They didn't find a difference and Einstein used their results to deduce that there was no Aether and no speed greater than the speed of light.
I am familiar with that experiment.  Hmmm... then how do they get the modern ring gyros to work?

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 23, 2012, 06:34:15 PM
Quote from: Harry

Gary
Making two measurements over a fixed distance, say the length of your canoe or raft, one with the current and one against the current allows the estimation of the speed of the current.  It's equal to the distance measured divided by the difference between the two measurements divided by 2 and then converted into mph using the conversion 22 feet per second equals 15 mph.
Here's how ya do it.
Ya put the floater, say a red and white bobber in the water at the nose and paddle with the current and timing how long it takes to pass the bobber till it is at the stern, i.e. the length of the canoe, raft.  Then ya turn the canoe, raft around and do the same thing against the current.


O.K. let me make sure I've got this right. You have a canoe that is 18 feet long. You throw out a bobber well in front of the canoe (so that you can establish a steady speed prior to reaching it.) You then paddle steadily past the bobber and it takes 4 seconds for the bobber to move from the bow to the stern. You continue downstream a bit, turn around and then paddle steadily, using the same rhythem,  back upstream past the bobber and it again takes exactly 4 seconds to go past the bobber. So you are going 18 feet in 4 seconds, 4 and a half feet per second, 3 mph in each direction. Since there is no difference in the time and the speed I assume you would calculate zero current. But using your formula 18 feet divided by zero and then divided by 2 causes the dreaded "divide by zero error" on a computer since that is not allowed since the result of that operation is not defined. So it looks like my formula is better for this than yours. So with no current the times and the speeds will be the same, right?

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 23, 2012, 09:45:57 PM

Ring Laser Gyroscope, not familiar with how it works.  Saw where it is based on the Sagnec Effect (Sagnec Interferometery.  Interesting and I gotta look at it some more before I can say I understand it.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Jeff Palshook on March 24, 2012, 07:36:43 AM
Sagnac_Effect and ring laser gyroscopes .... It's been a while since I brushed up on the specific details of the Sagnac Effect, but I think the description I will give here is correct on most of the particulars.

A ring laser gyroscope works by sending two separate laser beams in opposite directions around a closed optical path.  This optical path is basically a "channel" inside a glass block.  Mirrors at each corner of the block re-direct the laser light beams into the next leg of the path.  The block can be either triangular, rectangular, or hexagonal.  A longer path length (i.e., a physically larger optical block) produces more accurate measurements.

The two laser beams, each traveling around the optical path in a direction opposite to the other beam, interfere with each other.  A sensing element detects the resulting interference pattern at the opposite side of the optical block from the injection point of the two beams.  If the optical block has a rotation rate in inertial space, the frequency of one beam will slightly different than the frequency of the second beam.  The sensing element measures the Doppler shift between the two beams.  The detected Doppler shift is proportional to the angular rate of rotation.  This is the Sagnac Effect.

A key difference between a ring laser gyro and the older technologies involving "conventional" spinning mass gyroscopes is that a spinning mass gyroscope measures angular displacement, while a ring laser gyroscope measures angular rate.  Thus, some extra math is needed to turn a system using a ring laser gyro into an inertial measuring unit or inertial navigation system, compared to the math needed in an inertial navigation system using spinning-mass gyroscopes.  But both systems are very complicated and require a lot of math anyway!  The big advantage of an inertial system using  ring laser gyroscopes is that the gyroscopes have no moving parts and thus the system is easier and cheaper to maintain compared to a system using coventional spinning-mass gyroscopes.

There is also an optical gyroscope called a fiber optic gyroscope (FOG),  which uses a very long fiber optic thread wound around a central core.  A laser beam is injected into one end of the optical fiber and sensed at the other end of the fiber.  I forget the optical principle which allows a FOG sense rotation.  I know it is different from the Sagnac Effect.  I do know a FOG is more accurate than a ring laser gyroscope.  This is why FOG's are used in the current generation of inertial navigation system for our ballistic missile submarines (SSBN's), while ring laser gyros are used in the inertial navigation system on attack submarines (SSN's).  An SSBN has more stringent requirements on navigational accuracy than an SSN has.
 
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Dr James Younghusband, D.C. on March 24, 2012, 10:08:30 AM
This has likely been mentioned already, but I am of the impression that the "Miss Doran" was a fabric aircraft.  What then would explain the pieces of aluminum that seems to have been showing up around Gardner?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 10:30:54 AM
Dr Jim
I don't think that anyone is suggesting that the Miss Doran and its occupants Flew to Gardner. The discussion is centered around them possibly running out of fuel and "ditching" and floating (paddling, sailing) in the life raft they had aboard.  Is that possible?  Well, Gary LaPook reminds us that Eddie Rickenbacher survived at sea for over 20 days, and in 1944 Zamperini, and Phillps survived for 47 days (2000 miles) on a raft  and floated to the Marshalls where they were captured by the Japanese.  Their companion, McNamara perished after 33 days.  The book describing the adventure is "Unbroken" authored by Hillebrand (sp?).  Haven't read it yet, I have it on order.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Dr James Younghusband, D.C. on March 24, 2012, 10:51:20 AM
The Dole birds took off August 16, 1927
Amelia took off from Lae  July    2, 1937
---------------------------------------------
Castaway for 10 years?  Am I missing something?  I'd think cast away for 10 years there would have been enough debris found on the island to fill a land fill, enough crab/lobster and bird skeletons to build a small fort. 

Someone once wrote,"simpler explanations are, other things being equal, generally better than more complex ones."

On an overflight looking for AE a pilot described Gardner as showing signs of recent habitation.  That would not seem to fit with any from the Dole race.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 11:01:15 AM

Jeff P.
A picky point re: the RLG.
"A ring laser gyroscope works by sending two separate laser beams..."
Actually it is one laser beam split by a half-silvered mirror at 45 degrees to the laser's direction thus allowing one half of the beam to pass thru the mirror undeflected and move counter-clockwise around the "ring" path while the other half of the beam gets reflected and moves in a clockwise direction.  Normally there wouldn't be an interference pattern set up since bothe beams come from the same source and travel the same path length.  But, when the "ring" is rotated, say in the clockwise direcrtion, the clockwise beam travels slightly farther and the counter beam, slightly shorter to get to the detector and thus the interference pattern, fringes,  is set up and is a function of the speed of rotation.  Complicated mathematics of course, nothing is simple anymore, LOL.

Another disadvantage of a mechanical gyroscope is that as the  speed of its rotation slows its axis precesses, i.e. no longer remains pointed in its original direction (conservation of angular momentum in a reotating system).  Our earth's axis of rotation does the same thing, it precesses with a period of about 56,000 years  and the North pole "wobbles".  Super imposed on this wobble, whicn is caused by the gravitional force acting between the earth and sun and because the axis is tilted about 23-1/2 degrees from being perpendicular to the plane of the earth's orbit, is a "wobble" about the precession.  This wobble is  caused by the gravitational force between the earth and the moon.

Welcome to the adventure.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 24, 2012, 11:08:12 AM
Quote
Castaway for 10 years?  Am I missing something?

We were discussing the artifacts, primarily the skeleton that perhaps was a woman, located near what appeared to be the sole of woman's shoe. This was the judgement of the guy who found the bones. The bones appeared to be very weathered, only 4 teeth remained in the skull. It could be possible, however unlikely, that these were the remains of Mildred Doran and not Earhart.

No one is suggesting that this castaway was alive for years.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Dr James Younghusband, D.C. on March 24, 2012, 11:17:29 AM
I guess anything is possible.   Given that Hawaii is about 2556 miles east of Gardner, if the Ms Doran had made it within sight of Hawaii before going down, I'm not sure of prevailing winds or ocean currents, but traveling at a speed of 4mph it would have taken about 26 days to reach Gardner.  Given that they had little water, few provisions, a small life raft it would be quite a long and hot trip.  I would think a simpler explanation would be that the person who observed the skeleton misjudged the date of death because of the rapid destruction of flesh by the island crabs, sun, wind, storms, etc.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 11:20:21 AM

Dr. Jim
"Someone once wrote, "simpler explanations are, other things being equal, generally better than more complex ones."

It's referred to as Occam's Razor and you will  see it cited on here many times.  It's modern equivalent is KISS (Keep it simple, stupid.) Somewhere, in this thread I think, Marty put it into wonderful Latin.  I'll have  to look for it.

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 11:35:14 AM

Dr Jim
Links to information, including a youtube video, can be found in the early posts in this thread discussing the equipment carried by the DoleBirds.  Life raft, sextant, "water machine" i.e. a device to allow re-breathing of the water vapor exhaled as one breathes and thus reducing the need to drink a lot of water to replace the moisture lost by the body.

I think that we all realize that it was an unlikely event, perhaps a wildly unlikely event, for Mildred Doran to have been on Gardner.  We're discussing a remote possibility.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 12:37:04 PM

Dr. Jim
 "Given that Hawaii is about 2556 miles east of Gardner"

I believe you have the numbers mixed up.  The 2556 statute miles (2222 nautical miles) is the distance from Lae, New Guinea to Howland Island i.e. the AE/FN leg.  Gardner is about 404sm (350 nm) SSE of Howland. Hawaii is about 1900nm north and slightly west of Howland, I think.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 24, 2012, 12:59:12 PM

Found this today in the news, Tsunami-tossed boat spotted off western Canada (http://news.yahoo.com/tsunami-tossed-boat-spotted-off-western-canada-113010423.html).

Although not related to the topic, I thought it was interesting none the less.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 04:24:45 PM

Occam's Razor in Latin (thanks to Marty Moleski) is:
Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem.
Which translates into:
Entities must  not be multiplied beyond necessities.    KISS
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 05:07:03 PM

And from an article (What is Occam's Razor?) found by plugging the Latin Phrase into my browser, comes this:

"The final word is of unknown origin, although it's often attributed to Einstein, himself a master of the quotable one liner:

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." "(emphasis mine, hjh)
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 24, 2012, 05:55:08 PM

gary

mmm  32.3 inches per pace, I wiuld guess your height as  5'-9 1/2" to 5;-10".  ??
You're off by half an inch.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 24, 2012, 06:15:47 PM

O.K. let me make sure I've got this right. You have a canoe that is 18 feet long. You throw out a bobber well in front of the canoe (so that you can establish a steady speed prior to reaching it.) You then paddle steadily past the bobber and it takes 4 seconds for the bobber to move from the bow to the stern. You continue downstream a bit, turn around and then paddle steadily, using the same rhythem,  back upstream past the bobber and it again takes exactly 4 seconds to go past the bobber. So you are going 18 feet in 4 seconds, 4 and a half feet per second, 3 mph in each direction. Since there is no difference in the time and the speed I assume you would calculate zero current. But using your formula 18 feet divided by zero and then divided by 2 causes the dreaded "divide by zero error" on a computer since that is not allowed since the result of that operation is not defined. So it looks like my formula is better for this than yours. So with no current the times and the speeds will be the same, right?

gl
Harry, you didn't respond to my question, do I have it right?

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 06:41:43 PM

Gary
Oh Goody, a binary possibility, just like AE's last words.  Either 5'-9" or 5'-10 1/2".  hmmm, 32.3 inch pace and mine is 30 inches  I'm 5'-8" so I'll refine my guess to 5'-9"  tada
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 06:48:11 PM

Gary
"...do I have it right?"

Let;s see, 18 feet each way, same time, i.e. same speed. conclsion no current.  Formula fails at zero current. Looks that way, unless I've missed the Catch 22.   hehe
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Dr James Younghusband, D.C. on March 24, 2012, 09:44:50 PM
Occam's Razor... Of course in times like these I look to the master of logic for inspiration, Sherlock Holmes,
"The Sign of the Four," 1890.  "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?"

Harry, I stand corrected, thank you. 
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 09:58:08 PM

Gary
So now we know that the current wasn't in the direction that we tested, say it was N/S, S/N

Now let's check out whether a current is flowing from E/W or W/E  same process.  Even though , had there been a current in that direction(s) during the first trial we would have noticed a different effect on the Bobber than on the canoe because of their different shapes and resronses to a side current.

At any rate, continuing our trials, hopefully not too many, if there were a current we would find it, speed and direction.  Question is what to do with that info?  They'd have to wait for Knope to get a fix to know where they were so they could plan where to go, prolly Hawaii.

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 24, 2012, 10:04:26 PM

Dr Jim
Not to worry, mate.   No offense intended, hopefully none taken.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 24, 2012, 10:21:50 PM

Gary
"...do I have it right?"

Let;s see, 18 feet each way, same time, i.e. same speed. conclsion no current.  Formula fails at zero current. Looks that way, unless I've missed the Catch 22.   hehe
O.K., so I got the first example right, no difference in time going past the bobber means no current along that axis. (Let's keep in simple and only consider a current along the first axis.)

Now let's consider a case where there is a current. Same 18 foot canoe and procedure, only this time you have a 1 mph current moving in the direction of the first test run, you are traveling with the current on the first pass by the bobber. Since you are traveling with the current your speed is now 4 mph, 6 feet per second, so you pass the bobber in 3 seconds. Now you follow the same procedure, you continue a bit further, turn around and then paddle in the opposite direction against the current. What will the time be on this up current leg to pass the bobber?

gl

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: John Ousterhout on March 25, 2012, 08:34:45 AM
If I put a canoe in a swimming pool, and have a bobber, stop watch and ruler, Harry believes I'll be able to determine how fast the pool is moving with the earth and what direction it is moving through the universe?  Impossible.  Unlike light, water moves at variable rates in the universe, so the effect he's describing won't occur.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 25, 2012, 01:12:08 PM

John O
In Latin  Reductio ad Absurdum

Why on earth would I put my canoe in a swimming pool. except maybe to practice my Eskimo Roll technique, or my cross-bow draw  stroke or any number of other strokes that come in handy when negotiating a river with fierce rapids?

However, the formula I posted is wrong and I have learned, again I might add, not to try to solve complex problems in my head w/o checking them out on paper.

Mea  Culpa.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 25, 2012, 02:04:13 PM

On Occam's Razor, here's how my favorite Physics Prof taught us to approach a problem:  Start at the beginning, work your way thru the middle, and when ya get to the end, Stop.

Kinda like the one-liner attributed to Einstein.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 25, 2012, 02:30:07 PM

In common speech the term reductio ad absurdum refers to anything pushed to absurd extremes.

Nuff said.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 25, 2012, 04:21:52 PM

Gary
"Now you follow the same procedure, you continue a bit further, turn around and then paddle in the opposite direction against the current. What will the time be on this up current leg to pass the bobber?"

3mph - 1mph=2 mph(2.93 ft/sec)   18 ft/2.93=6.14 seconds.

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 26, 2012, 12:59:11 AM

Gary
"Now you follow the same procedure, you continue a bit further, turn around and then paddle in the opposite direction against the current. What will the time be on this up current leg to pass the bobber?"

3mph - 1mph=2 mph(2.93 ft/sec)   18 ft/2.93=6.14 seconds.

I was expecting, Harry, that the example I gave would get you to recognize the error in this computation but you missed the opportunity. I wrote before:

"Now let's consider a case where there is a current. Same 18 foot canoe and procedure, only this time you have a 1 mph current moving in the direction of the first test run, you are traveling with the current on the first pass by the bobber. Since you are traveling with the current your speed is now 4 mph, 6 feet per second, so you pass the bobber in 3 seconds. Now you follow the same procedure, you continue a bit further, turn around and then paddle in the opposite direction against the current. What will the time be on this up current leg to pass the bobber?"

You have been doing the math as though the bobber were fixed to the bottom and not free to move with the current or using a landmark on shore as your reference point. But the method you gave to determine the current, that started this discussion, was to time the movement of the raft past a piece of jetsam that certainly was not fixed to the bottom of the ocean so was free to move with any current. Using my canoe example, with the canoe going with a 1 mph current, its speed over the bottom would be 4 mph. But the bobber would also be moving with the current and so was also moving with the current at 1 mph over the bottom so the relative speed between the canoe and  the bobber is still only 3 mph, the speed that you are paddling the canoe through the water so the time would have been the same as in the example given with no current, 4 seconds not the 3 seconds I gave in the current example that I thought would tip you off to the problem in your original statement.

The answer to the test question "What will the time be on this up current leg to pass the bobber?" is the same 4 seconds because the relative speed between the canoe and the bobber will still be 3 mph. It works out like this, the canoe is going at 3 mph through the water against the 1 mph current so its speed over the bottom is only 2 mph in the upstream direction. The bobber is still moving downstream with the current at 1 mph over the bottom in the downstream direction. Putting these two speeds over the bottom together you find that the relative speed between the bobber and the canoe is still 3 mph so the time will still be 4 secends.

You can work out other examples for yourself and draw diagrams if necessary and you will find that the time to pass the bobber remains exactly the same no matter what the current is so it is impossible to determine the current using the method you gave.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Erik on March 26, 2012, 08:17:20 AM

Found this today in the news, Tsunami-tossed boat spotted off western Canada (http://news.yahoo.com/tsunami-tossed-boat-spotted-off-western-canada-113010423.html).

Although not related to the topic, I thought it was interesting none the less.

Interesting....

Here's another article I found.  It certainly adds to this thread's whole point that the Pacific ocean was not as desolate as we might think.

The Meriden Daily Journal; Oct 7, 1937 (http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=FeRIAAAAIBAJ&sjid=PQINAAAAIBAJ&pg=2362,2634002&dq=rubber+raft+found+on+the+coast+of+hawaii&hl=en)
WASHING ASHORE OF RAFT REOPENS EARHART PUZZLE
"Deflated Rubber Life Boat Tossed up On Hawaii Island"

It's also curious to note that the article indicates Air Cruisers, Inc. of Hommondsport, N.Y. constructe the life raft for Amelia Earhart.  Interesting.... Any truth to that?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Harry Howe, Jr. on March 26, 2012, 05:35:01 PM

Gary
Yeh, I didn't have my brain plugged in.  Was treating the bobber as a fixed frame of reference and of course it was moving with whatever current was flowing.   Shall I grovel?  LOL

Grovel, grovel, grovel.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 26, 2012, 06:24:31 PM

Gary
Yeh, I didn't have my brain plugged in.  Was treating the bobber as a fixed frame of reference and of course it was moving with whatever current was flowing.   Shall I grovel?  LOL

Grovel, grovel, grovel.

I was just hoping you would catch my hint. LOL

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on March 27, 2012, 10:52:25 AM
Gary, I understand you're the chap to speak to regarding navigation etc... If they did ditch and sink, in which general area would you expect it to have occurred in your opinion?

Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Jeff Palshook on March 29, 2012, 07:32:12 PM
Jeff Hayden,

I don't mean to take away Gary LaPook's opportunity to respond in his own way to your question, should he choose to do so.  However, I note that Gary answered basically the same question you asked above in one of his posts several months ago.  Look at "Celestial Choir" section, "Noonan Navigation Error" thread, Reply #95.  Look in the second paragraph after the image Gary posted in that reply.

Gary took considerable flak here on the forum around Christmas time for declining to post his version of how he believes the Lae-Howland flight ended.  You can see from the referenced posting that Gary really had posted his "theory" in the recent past.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on March 29, 2012, 10:00:43 PM
Jeff Hayden,

I don't mean to take away Gary LaPook's opportunity to respond in his own way to your question, should he choose to do so.  However, I note that Gary answered basically the same question you asked above in one of his posts several months ago.  Look at "Celestial Choir" section, "Noonan Navigation Error" thread, Reply #95.  Look in the second paragraph after the image Gary posted in that reply.

Gary took considerable flak here on the forum around Christmas time for declining to post his version of how he believes the Lae-Howland flight ended.  You can see from the referenced posting that Gary really had posted his "theory" in the recent past.
Here is a link to that prior post of mine (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,383.msg5180.html#msg5180). When you read what I had written there then you will see that I was not real satisfied with that explanation and only settled on it as the "least bad" explanation. It's hard to believe, since I have been working on this problem for more than ten years, but I think I have come up with a better explanation in just the last day. I have to do some more computations and plotting to see if it works out, as I expect it will, before I put it out there for some more ridicule. :P I will also have to draw a number of diagrams and explain some more aspects of celestial navigation to make it understandable so it will take me a bit of time to put it together.

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Heath Smith on March 30, 2012, 03:51:55 AM

I am looking forward to seeing your new theory Gary. When might we expect to see it?
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on March 30, 2012, 05:19:41 AM
Not being an 'expert' in navigation I read all the posts you guys put up here in complete amazement. Having always been 'self loading cargo' as the RAF called us we always left the drop zone finding to the guys sitting sitting up front and, just jumped when they told us we were there.
Having read Garys possible explanations re: crash and sink in the vicinity of Howland there seems to be a lot of logic and common sense involved in this possibility. There's also many 'what ifs' but, that doesn't mean it isn't plausible. For example even if FN did manage to get a fix in the clear area to the south of Howland they might not have had enough fuel left to be able to make use of their newly found position.
Interesting to note though is that one of the two 'possible' contacts discovered by the Waitt Institute in 2009 was in fact to the south of Howland. Dismissed as being airplane but, hey, it's their money.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Jeff Victor Hayden on April 03, 2012, 05:14:09 AM
Quote
It's hard to believe, since I have been working on this problem for more than ten years, but I think I have come up with a better explanation in just the last day. I have to do some more computations and plotting to see if it works out, as I expect it will, before I put it out there for some more ridicule. I will also have to draw a number of diagrams and explain some more aspects of celestial navigation to make it understandable so it will take me a bit of time to put it together.

Gary, I always have great respect for your navigational abilities and flight endurance knowledge so, look forward to seeing what you will come up with. Myself, I don't like to put all my eggs in one basket so therefore have an open mind as to what actually happened. There are 2 likely scenarios, the crash/ditch and sink versus the reef landing from what I can gather. Exclude Japanese prisoners,spys, gold runners etc... as pure Hollywood fantasy you are left with the 2 scenarios.
At this point I would say that BOTH scenarios have possible targets worth a second look. Now we know the general location of one of these possible targets, the Niku reef. The other possible target, within 60 Nm +/- 10 of Howland  will hopefully will sit somewhere in the area that you are working on.
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on April 04, 2012, 05:11:39 AM

Dunno.  But the Colorado's logs include hourly postings throughtout the 2000 mile journey.  Most of the logs indicate ranges from NNE to SSE, all 'westerly'.  There are no readings that indicate 'easterly' flow.

Here is a sample.

What method did they use to measure the current every hour while underway? Did they have some device on the ship that could read out current? 

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: JNev on April 06, 2012, 04:57:51 PM

Dunno.  But the Colorado's logs include hourly postings throughtout the 2000 mile journey.  Most of the logs indicate ranges from NNE to SSE, all 'westerly'.  There are no readings that indicate 'easterly' flow.

Here is a sample.

What method did they use to measure the current every hour while underway? Did they have some device on the ship that could read out current? 

gl

The human navigator - but what he would have had to derive it from would be wanting, IMHO.

The log recorded sea state - height and direction of swells - which are of course surface observations; the log also captured surface speed in the form of 'revs' and 'log' - some inference could be made from that and drift, I suppose, but that's a bit sporty unless in a steady, strong current.  I believe truly measuring 'current' per se is much more subtly intricate than that and not particularly part of ship navigation in the open sea, but if anyone knows otherwise I'll be glad to know it. 

I don't think Colorado would have had a particular way to truly estimate currents except in a gross sense if drift was obviously contrary to winds and ship's way was noticeably hampered or aided, etc.  Current would have to be an obvious factor for there to be much measurement - otherwise it's probably mostly lost in the wash of normal surface navigation. 

We have ships going up and down the Savannah River here constantly - close to to a 20 mile passage to the sea - and currents are obvious there, for example.  Likely not so much on the open ocean in most places of the world unless well known to mariners already, like the Gulf Stream, a northerly coastal flow that is well offshore here.

LTM -
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on April 06, 2012, 08:32:46 PM

Dunno.  But the Colorado's logs include hourly postings throughtout the 2000 mile journey.  Most of the logs indicate ranges from NNE to SSE, all 'westerly'.  There are no readings that indicate 'easterly' flow.

Here is a sample.


Sorry Eric, but you are reading the Colorado log wrong. The last two columns refer to "swells" or "sea condition" not to current. Read the headings of those last two columns, at the very top is says "Sea" then the left one is "Condition" and the right one is "Swells from." The numbers you find in the left column code the shape of the swells and the second column shows the direction from which the swells are coming. None of this provides any information about the actual movement of the water, the current. I have attached the page from the weather code book which relates to sea condition. The numbers that you interpreted in your attached excerpt of the Colorado log (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=616.0;attach=1946) as  currents of two or three knots are actually a description of the swells observed from the deck of the Colorado. You are never going to find a current of three knots in the center of an ocean basin. The only place you find such current speeds is along a coast line, such as the gulf stream.

Current at sea has always been the "great unknown" in navigation and it was not possible to have continuous knowledge of the current until the advent of computerized LORAN C in the 1980s and now with GPS. To determine current you need to know your course and speed "over the bottom" which you compare with your course and speed through the water, and the difference is the current. This is the same problem that Harry was having in prior post (https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,616.msg11639.html#msg11639)s on this thread. Prior to LORAN and GPS, navigators could only get two fixes a day, at morning twilight and again at evening twilight. Any coordinates given for other times are by dead reckoning and you cannot determine current from a DR position. So twice a day the navigator can plot a fix and measure the distance and course between those two fixes and determine his speed over the bottom. From the log of courses steered and revolutions, or "turns," of the propeller (giving speed through the water) the navigator can plot a DR position. Measuring the direction from the DR to the last fix gives you the direction that the current is flowing and the distance between the DR and the fix, divided by the time between the two fixes, produces the speed of the current.

Flight navigators use the same method to determine the winds experienced in flight, see example of this here  (https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/other-flight-navigation-information/in-flight-celestial-navigation)and Noonan mentioned using this method himself, see attached. (The "no wind position" is the same as the DR position.)

gl
Title: Re: The Dole Derby
Post by: Gary LaPook on April 22, 2012, 04:57:06 PM

A modern, well designed sailboat with a tall, high aspect ratio sail plan can sail within 45 degrees of the true wind. Square rigged vessels could only sail within about 70 degrees of the true wind so do not make much progress against the wind. But what makes sailing upwind possible is a keel that acts like a hydrofoil making lift under water.  So it was not the lateen sail that made sailing close to the wind possible but that in combination with the keel. Life rafts do not have tall sails (if they have sails at all) and they do not have keels which is why they can only sail about straight downwind, more than 170 degrees away from the true wind for large rafts and straight downwind for a small raft.The sail and keel combination extracts energy out of the air/water system which propels a sailboat. A balloon cannot extract energy from the movement of the air mass, the wind, it can only travel with the air mass, straight downwind, just like a life raft. A windmill can extract energy from the  movement of the air because it is anchored to the ground and cannot be blown downwind and a sailboat, with a keel which prevents the boat from being blown straight downwind, can also extract energy from the movement of the air at the interface with the ocean and so be propelled in about 3/4ths of the compass, only excluding the 90 degrees surrounding the direction of the true wind.

gl
To make sure that I had it right about life rafts being blown only straight downwind I decided to ask an expert on the behavior of life rafts so on Saturday I asked:

"So, Mr. Zamperini, based on your knowledge of life raft performance, how much can you make them sail away from straight downwind, ten degrees or twenty or thirty?"

"Don't be ridiculous, you go straight downwind, that's the only way you go. We could tell when we passed by flotsam that we were moving through the water in exactly the opposite direction from the wind."

"Thanks, that helps, and thanks for your service."

gl