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Author Topic: The Dole Derby  (Read 163710 times)

Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #75 on: March 16, 2012, 06:17:39 PM »


Of course the shear line at the boundary between the North Equatorial Current moving West and the Northern Equatorial Counter Current moving East can be troublesome , as is the case in the South.

Then there are the micro-currents set up by the presence of land masses such as the Hawaiian Dhain.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #76 on: March 16, 2012, 08:12:10 PM »

For those who did not load the Google Earth ocean current file you can play a Video instead. You can save the video to your hard drive by right clicking the Video link and then select "Save Target As" or "Save Link As" depending on the browser.
What is the source for the Google Earth animation of the Pacific Ocean currents?

gl
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #77 on: March 16, 2012, 08:34:14 PM »

Quote
What is the source for the Google Earth animation of the Pacific Ocean currents?

Ocean Currents

The water in the ocean is constantly moving. Ocean currents are typically driven by surface wind and can have a huge impact on climate. Northwest Europe is moderately temperate considering its latitude because the Gulf Stream off of the eastern coast of the United States transports warm water north to those areas. In fact, the Atlantic Ocean along the U.S. coast is much warmer than the Pacific Ocean along the U.S. coast because of the warm water transported in the Gulf Stream. In this visualization, a model created by NASA, the color variations denote speed. The lighter green areas are moving faster than the blue areas.

Along most of the coasts, where the water faces an obstacle, the water’s velocity increases and eddies form. Eddies (small whirlpools) are most readily seen in streams, where they form behind rocks as the water flows around them. The eddies in the ocean follow the same priniciple, but are so large that they are hard to detect. Eddies can also spin off at the edges of currents as they travel through the oceans. An almost constant string of eddies is visible off of the northern coast of South America as an equatorial current from Africa crashes into South America. Eddies are also visible off of many islands around the world.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #78 on: March 16, 2012, 08:38:11 PM »

Quote
What is the source for the Google Earth animation of the Pacific Ocean currents?

 In this visualization, a model created by NASA, the color variations denote speed. The lighter green areas are moving faster than the blue areas.


Can you please provide the link to where you found the animation?

gl
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #79 on: March 16, 2012, 08:42:37 PM »

Quote
Can you please provide the link to where you found the animation?

Try this link.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #80 on: March 17, 2012, 01:02:46 AM »

Quote
Can you please provide the link to where you found the animation?

Try this link.
Thanks for the link.

Zamperini and Doran were only about 300 miles apart based on the 600 miles south of Hawaii for Doran mentioned by Harry and Zamperini went down searching 225 miles north of Palmyra according to the book, Unbroken, and for all we know, based on the information we are working with, they may have splashed down into the exact same wave. But what is important for our discussion is that they both landed within the same west bound North Pacific Equatorial Current so the direction of Zamperini's drift has a high likelihood of representing the drift of Doran, to the west, not towards Gardner.

I think I have found where you guys went wrong with you interpretation of the NOAA animation. I have attached a marked up screen shot from the Google Earth animation for August 1937. I have also attached the image that the animation was created from, it is number 37 at this site. Here is the link to the overall site. and here.. (I picked this frame because it carried the date 9/37 in Google Earth but it is likely that the dates were not real dates but just used to make an animation. Because of this uncertainty we cannot judge how fast the various features move around so cannot judge the speed of movement of these features. If each frame truly represents a month then the animation covers 72 years and the movements we see in the animation are extremely slow. NOAA doesn't say how the animation was developed but, if it was based on satellite imaging, as is most likely, then we know it doesn't actually show the current at the time of Doran's flight since the first satellite was not launched until 1957.)

The blue color is slowest, green a little faster on up all the way to yellow and red. We know from comparison with the pilot chart that the blue represents about 0.5 knots and the green about 0.7 to 0.8 knots. None of these areas have current speeds anywhere close to the 2 to 4 mph that Harry mentioned. Where your interpretation went astray is that you interpreted the movement of the wiggly green lines as representing the direction of current flow when, in fact, these lines represent a slightly higher current speed but does not tell us anything about the direction of movement. In places where there are long lived strong currents then the color may delineate the location of the current but still doesn't tell us the direction of movement. A perfect example of this is the Gulf Stream which is colored red going past the east coast. We know that it flows to the northeast from other sources and from the pilot chart but, if all we have is the red color, then all we know is the location of the Gulf Stream and that it flows either northeast or southwest. The green areas near where you believe Doran ditched show slightly higher current speed but the direction of flow is still towards the west in the North Pacific Equatorial Current and is also depicted on the pilot chart.

To make this clear, imagine a diagram showing the speed of traffic on a very wide freeway, a thousand lanes wide. Let's say there is a section many miles long where the cars are going 40 mph, which we color blue on our diagram, and then there a half mile section where the traffic is moving at 60 mph, which we color green, followed by a 40 mph, blue, section again. When we look at our diagram the green line appears to go across all the lanes of the freeway and you have interpreted this as showing that all the cars in that section had made a 90 degree turn and were driving across the lanes of the freeway when, in fact, they were still continuing along in the same direction as before the green section only now they were going a little faster. And if the traffic started speeding up sooner then the green section would also be drawn further back and it would then appear that the traffic was moving in exactly the opposite direction than it was. Another example, if you watch the animation you will see what appears to be a long green, sinuous line come from the west, moving east and finally ending up at the Big Island of Hawaii. Your interpretation is that this showed an east moving current while in fact it is in the area of a constant westbound current. There is not a chance that there was a current moving eastward to Hawaii against the westbound current and the trade winds. All this green line shows is that the speed of the westbound current west of Hawaii had increased at different times at different spots along this green line. As further proof all you have to do is watch the animation while concentrating on the Gulf Steam and you will see occasions when the high speed red sections move towards the south in the opposite direction to what we know the Gulf Stream is actually moving. All this is actually showing is that he speed of the Gulf Stream was changing in different sections, not the the water had reversed direction and was actually flowing towards the south. If that actually did happen then the world as we know it is coming to an end,(of course this is 2012...hmmmm.)

And even, arguendo, if your interpretation were correct, that the direction that these green lines moved showed the direction of current flow, these green lines do not move towards the south so cannot represent a south moving current and do not cross the equator.

And you have been ignoring the effect of the wind which has a greater influence on the movement of a raft than does the current. Looking at the data gathered by Zamperini at great cost, we can see that they covered about two thousand miles in 47 days, averaging 42.5 miles a day. The current was only 0.6 knots accounting for only 16.5 miles per day and the additional 26 miles per day was due to being pushed by the trade wind. You can only sail a life raft straight down wind since they have no keel. Large, multi-person rafts ( except the round 20 and  25 person rafts) can be steered about ten degrees to either side of straight down wind but it is unlikely that Doran carried a large raft. So even if Doran could get across the equator she would have been confronted with the southeast trade winds that would blow her raft towards the northwest, not towards the southwest so not towards Gardner. And it would not be possible to paddle fast enough to counteract this drift cause by the southeast trade wind.

gl
« Last Edit: March 17, 2012, 01:11:07 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #81 on: March 17, 2012, 10:38:35 AM »

More than likely the animation consists of 72 frames and there is no relation to time. I am not sure why you believe there is an illusion of some sort. The colors are only intended to give you a relative notion of the velocity. This is more than likely a model as the description states. This is not intended to give you a radar like image but an idea of the direction and rate of the currents. If you check this image you can see the direction and the speed of the currents. In the region of interest, the current appears to be moving at a rate of about 2 Knots to the West.

While the trade winds would have a major effect we do not know anything about the winds at the time of the disappearance. It is quite likely that the prevailing winds were from the North-East or East in that region of the pacific. Where did you get the South-East wind from?

« Last Edit: March 17, 2012, 11:14:32 AM by Heath Smith »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #82 on: March 17, 2012, 10:52:27 AM »

Since you are interested in Zamperini, check out this page,  A timeline of Louis Zamperini’s journey. The author of the page created a GE file that shows a timeline of his life including where he splashed and drifted to. While he drifted almost directly West, he traveled almost twice the distance that would be necessary for the Ms Doran crew to reach Gardner. If the prevailing winds were from the North-East versus the East, he might have ended up in the Phoenix Islands instead.

If we follow your line of reasoning however, Zamperini should have never ended up where he did as the winds were out of the South-East and the currents were moving him to the East.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2012, 11:16:54 AM by Heath Smith »
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #83 on: March 17, 2012, 12:35:29 PM »


the presence of NASA satellites annd the research they have done resulted in the discovery and description of The Hawaiian Wake, an eddy current that flows opposite to the westerlies and because of the angle that the Hawaiian chain presents to the westerly currents and the straits between the Islands a Wake current below the Islands flows roughly Southerly and at times extends for hundreds of miles.

I do believe that  two young men in relatively good physical condition in a raft having a relatively rectangular ( with two rounded ends) shape, and paddles to use to propel and Steer thhe raft could control the direction of the raft.  To say that the motion of the raft would be determined by the winds as oppossed to the currents is nonsense.

Let me make myself very clear.  I am not saying that the Miss Doran survivors, if there were any, drifted, paddled, sailed and landed on Gardner in 1927.  I am saying that it was possible and merits discussion and investigation into whether, or if, it impacts on the question of Who Was The Castaway.
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #84 on: March 17, 2012, 01:01:31 PM »

I could not have said it better Harry. I think we all agree it is a long shot but it is indeed a possibility.

If further bones, artifacts, etc are found, they should at least be considered as a possible source.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #85 on: March 17, 2012, 01:28:51 PM »


the presence of NASA satellites annd the research they have done resulted in the discovery and description of The Hawaiian Wake, an eddy current that flows opposite to the westerlies and because of the angle that the Hawaiian chain presents to the westerly currents and the straits between the Islands a Wake current below the Islands flows roughly Southerly and at times extends for hundreds of miles.
You keep saying that but you don't provide links to your references. I have provided links to the current Pilot Charts published by our Navy and used in real life by real life navigators for planning real voyages and these do not show the currents that you mentioned, perhaps you should contact the Navy Hydrographic office and tell them of your new information and demand that they change their pilot charts.
Here are the links again to make it easy for you:
Main portal

Pilot charts

North Pacific Pilot Chart



Quote

I do believe that  two young men in relatively good physical condition in a raft having a relatively rectangular ( with two rounded ends) shape, and paddles to use to propel and Steer thhe raft could control the direction of the raft.  To say that the motion of the raft would be determined by the winds as oppossed to the currents is nonsense.

Harry, do you think I just make this stuff up? I have attached several pages from AFM 64-5 (1961) and AFR 64-4 (1985) that provides support for my statements. You have already told us that you are not a sailor so I am going to accept the expertise of the people at the Air Force over your admitted lack of expertise in this area. You can think whatever you want to think, but others might agree with me that what the Air Force thinks on this subject is more likely to be correct.
Quote

Let me make myself very clear.  I am not saying that the Miss Doran survivors, if there were any, drifted, paddled, sailed and landed on Gardner in 1927.  I am saying that it was possible and merits discussion and investigation into whether, or if, it impacts on the question of Who Was The Castaway.

gl
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #86 on: March 17, 2012, 02:03:16 PM »

More than likely the animation consists of 72 frames and there is no relation to time. I am not sure why you believe there is an illusion of some sort. The colors are only intended to give you a relative notion of the velocity. This is more than likely a model as the description states. This is not intended to give you a radar like image but an idea of the direction and rate of the currents. If you check this image you can see the direction and the speed of the currents. In the region of interest, the current appears to be moving at a rate of about 2 Knots to the West.

While the trade winds would have a major effect we do not know anything about the winds at the time of the disappearance. It is quite likely that the prevailing winds were from the North-East or East in that region of the pacific. Where did you get the South-East wind from?
Take a close look at the current chart you linked to and then look closely at the legend. I think you will agree that the arrow closest to the Zamperini site has only one barb on top indicating one knot not two knots of westerly flowing current.

I have attached excerpts from the up to date pilot charts. We are working with the best location we have for the Zamperini crash, about 225 miles north of Palmyra,  and I have plotted this on the pilot chart. According to this chart, the average current in the area is towards the east at 0.8 knots since this position is in the counter current. But this plotted position is very near the average northern limit of the counter current so if our estimated position is off by a few miles, or if the northern limit of the counter current on that date was a few miles further south, then Zamperini would have touched down in the westward flowing North Pacific Equatorial Current. But either way, he was propelled westward by the prevailing trade winds coming from the east and blowing towards the west. If he started out in the counter current then the eastward flow of the current would have caused the raft to drift more slowly towards the west at the beginning but eventually the raft ended up in the westward Equatorial Current and from that point on the speed of the raft towards the Marshalls would have increased.

When looking at the wind roses that represent the average winds in each 5 degree section, the large squares are 10 degrees in latitude and longitude, approximately 600 NM on a side. The length of the wind arrows represents the percentage of time that a wind from that direction has been observed and you measure the length of the arrow with a pair of dividers and take off the percentage from the scale in the legend. When the percentage is high, which would result in a very long arrow, the percentage is just listed on the arrow. On the wind rose closest to the presumed Zamperini position the winds are from the northeast 27 % of the time at force 3; from the east 38% at force 3; from the southeast 24% at force 3. These three directions total of 89% of the time and the winds from all the other directions are only a few percent of the time.

Looking at the presumed location of the Doran splash, it is securely within the west flowing current and the winds there are also from the east or northeast 90% of the time so she would have been blown towards the west very rapidly under the combined effect of the current and of the wind. If the southward push component of the northeast winds pushed her down into the counter-current then she would be in the identical position as Zamperini with the westward speed reduced by that current by still driven westward by the force of the winds, just like Zamperini. If you look further south, south of the counter-current, you will see the winds are out of the east and southeast 87% of the time, there are virtually no winds out of the north. To get to Gardner, Doran would have had to have crossed this band of adverse winds. The average northwards component of the southeast winds would push her raft towards the north at a rate that she could not overcome by paddling. (And why would she even be paddling towards the south in the first place?) And the westward flow in this region would also push her even faster towards the west.


gl
« Last Edit: March 17, 2012, 07:42:50 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #87 on: March 17, 2012, 02:13:47 PM »

Quote
I think you will agree that the arrow closest to the Zamperini site has only one barb on top indicating one knot not two knots of westerly flowing current.

Yes, these are general trends. Not far away it is generally 2 knots.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2012, 05:41:31 AM by Heath Smith »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #88 on: March 17, 2012, 02:25:51 PM »

Quote
I think you will agree that the arrow closest to the Zamperini site has only one barb on top indicating one knot not two knots of westerly flowing current.

Yes, these are general trends. Not far away it is generally 2 knots.
I don't see where you get that, none of the arrows in the north pacific equatorial current have two barbs.

gl
« Last Edit: March 17, 2012, 02:43:26 PM by Gary LaPook »
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richie conroy

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #89 on: March 17, 2012, 04:55:27 PM »

I'll do better as soon as I figure out how all of this stuff works!!!

Some hints in the "Forum FAQs and problem solving" board.

Relevant thread: how to insert links into posts.

The time to capture and record a link to an image is at the very moment that you are using the link to place the image in the Forum.  You have it at your fingertips--otherwise, the image would not appear.  So give credit where credit is due while composing a post with an image in it.

Marty i feel i must apologies as i am probably one of the biggest culprits of posting images without links so sorry.

in my defense though, most images i post are ones i have come across an saved to my computer over the past month's

so i will try from now on to add a link  :)
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