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Author Topic: The Dole Derby  (Read 133719 times)

Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #60 on: March 15, 2012, 04:44:56 PM »


Jeff
"That's all interesting, but somehow the odds of Miss Doran finding herself washed-up on Gardner just doesn't seem too likely."

Perhaps, but perhaps no more unlikely than AE/FN, with RDF and Itasca beacons and smoke and "watchers missing Howland and flying to Gardner.  Who knows, we gotta find that plane!
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richie conroy

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #61 on: March 15, 2012, 05:40:16 PM »


Jeff
"That's all interesting, but somehow the odds of Miss Doran finding herself washed-up on Gardner just doesn't seem too likely."

Perhaps, but perhaps no more unlikely than AE/FN, with RDF and Itasca beacons and smoke and "watchers missing Howland and flying to Gardner.  Who knows, we gotta find that plane!


in my opinion we av found plane

just need it verifying by people in the know ?

an hopefully the immanent announcement, by Ric or Tighar will Verify what we or I think is in the video still's

or it maybe unrelated, but will wait for announcement before commenting further haha  :)     
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #62 on: March 15, 2012, 06:06:45 PM »


Gary
"Zamperini conducted his experiment..."
An Experiment?  I'd hardly call a plane crash that killed 8 crewmen outright and resulted in the death of another(McNamara) in the raft after 33 days, and the capture and imprisonment of Zamperini and Phillips  after 47 days  "his experiment".

And to say that the B-24 crashed in the exact area,  i.e. in the South wake current area,  is a stretchi.  They were in a B-24, the "Green Hornet", a dog of a plane not capable of getting off the ground with a full load of bombs and therefore referred to as a "Lemon".  They were looking for survivors of another B-24 that crashed, prolly to the West of Hawaii out of the Wake currents and in the Westerly Pacific Gyre.
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #63 on: March 15, 2012, 06:12:05 PM »

... when I look at this post three of the attachments are normal, small, and one is super-large. This has happened before also. How can I stop this from happening?

I don't know.

Next time you see the anomaly, send me the link. 
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           Marty
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #64 on: March 15, 2012, 06:14:51 PM »


Richie
I certainly hope that you are correct in your laborious analysis of the Stills.  All that is needed is for another expedition with an ROV/Grabber to bring something up that is A. from a plane, B. An Electra 10E, and C. THE Electra 10E.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #65 on: March 16, 2012, 02:44:57 AM »


Gary
"Zamperini conducted his experiment..."
An Experiment?  I'd hardly call a plane crash that killed 8 crewmen outright and resulted in the death of another(McNamara) in the raft after 33 days, and the capture and imprisonment of Zamperini and Phillips  after 47 days  "his experiment".

And to say that the B-24 crashed in the exact area,  i.e. in the South wake current area,  is a stretchi.  They were in a B-24, the "Green Hornet", a dog of a plane not capable of getting off the ground with a full load of bombs and therefore referred to as a "Lemon".  They were looking for survivors of another B-24 that crashed, prolly to the West of Hawaii out of the Wake currents and in the Westerly Pacific Gyre.
I looked at your Google Earth image and  I have attached a portion of it. Once you put in the lat/long grid you can see that none of those whorls crossed the equator and so could not have moved Doran's raft from the northern hemisphere into the southern so as to have any chance of drifting to Gardner. Look again at the Pilot Chart and see if you can find any current of 3.5 knots, the equivalent to the 4 mph that you claimed the current reached in the Pacific. The highest speed I could find on the chart was 1.1 knots, 1.25 mph, about half of the low speed 2 mph current you claimed and only about one-third of the 4 mph high speed current that you claimed. You don't have currents that high in mid-ocean. Also look closely at the currents depicted on the Pilot Chart, none go south.

These Pilot Charts are published by the U.S. Navy Hydrographic Office based on data that it has been collecting since 1842, literally millions of data points. It is amazing that the Navy never found the south flowing, 2 to 4 mph, currents that you were able to find.

You are the one who put out the theory than Doran crashed about 600 miles south of Hawaii and I have plotted this on the Google Earth image and attached a KMZ file also. Contrary to your understanding that Zamperini crashed west of Hawaii, his plane was searching about 225 miles north of Palmyra Atoll which is south of Hawaii and I have plotted this position also. These two positions are only about 312 miles apart and located in the same westward flowing equatorial current, that's "exact" enough for me. Zamperini was south of Doran and closer to Gardner but he ended up in the Marshalls, not at Gardner.

gl

« Last Edit: March 16, 2012, 03:48:04 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #66 on: March 16, 2012, 04:16:32 AM »


I was the one that posted the GE currents. I never made claim to exact speeds of the current. What I did point out is that if you were just a bit more to the South, you could be swept in to the Southerly Equatorial currents. If you played the animation you can see rotation in the currents that could have taken a floating object and moved it hundreds of miles further to the South. If you load up the animation, it takes a while, you can see the currents in a bit more detail. To say that we have any idea where Doran ended up is of course highly speculative. We know nothing as far as the skill of the navigator is concerned. They might have been further to the East and South than what you have posted just shy of the Westward currents.

As to the duration of how long you might survive floating in a raft, that depends on the rations on board that might have included some basic survival gear (like fishing line and hooks) you could theoretically survive for several weeks. Many have survived for weeks by drinking the rain water collected in their rafts and eating birds and fish. There is an interesting story on the series I Shouldn't Be Alive where a Steve Callahan survived for 76 days in a raft.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #67 on: March 16, 2012, 10:53:29 AM »


Heath
Save your breath, Gary doesn't wanna hear it.
Notice on his map showing Xamperini's position relative to Doran's estimated position, Zamperini is 4 degrees west (@40 nm) and gary says that is good enough for him.  Also, he doesn't show that their (Zamperini's) position was west of the southerly flow of the wake currents below Hawaii.  It's a micro-current, produced when the water moves thru the straits between the various islands in the chain.  Kinda like the wing tip vortices created by an aero-plane as it moves thru the air creating wake turbulence behind thhe plane.

Let's just say that two strong young men (Pedlar and Knope, one of whom is a USN navigator) couldn't propel their life raft beyond the 1.66 mph that Zamperini drifted at (2000 miles in 47, say 50 days, 1200 hours).  Then their 1800 mile journey would take about 45 days.
Not outside of the realm of possibility.
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #68 on: March 16, 2012, 03:13:06 PM »


No worries Harry, we are free to believe whatever we decide. I do believe that it is entirely possible for not only the Ms Doran crew to have been swept below the equator, others might have as well. It is hard to imagine being lost in the Pacific and washing up on some remote island. While it sounds like adventure I think it would be more like hell on Earth. Someone died on Gardner and it had to be a pretty lonely way to go. Perhaps there were others with that castaway that tried in vein to seek out help on a makeshift raft. No matter who it was there it is a hell of a story that needs to be told.
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richie conroy

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #69 on: March 16, 2012, 03:53:17 PM »


Richie
I certainly hope that you are correct in your laborious analysis of the Stills.  All that is needed is for another expedition with an ROV/Grabber to bring something up that is A. from a plane, B. An Electra 10E, and C. THE Electra 10E.

look at this still i have attached, the arrow pointing to top left is pointing to letters what i havent worked out yet

the 2 arrows pointing bottom left an bottom right, if u study the objects for a couple mins u will notice the shape an see they are flaps that are half open ?

what there for i dont know but hopefully will find out  :)
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #70 on: March 16, 2012, 04:37:12 PM »


Richie
The  cowling around a radial engine had the purpose of  smoothing  the flow of air around the engine and lessen drag due to all the things hanging on thhe engine.  The cowling had flaps that could be adjusted from full closed to full open to adjust the cooling of the air-cooled engines.

Maybe that's what we're seeing.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #71 on: March 16, 2012, 04:53:31 PM »


Heath
In an earlier post here on thread I wrote:" Notice on his map showing Xamperini's position relative to Doran's estimated position, Zamperini is 4 degrees west (@40 nm) and gary says that is good enough for him."

Obviously, the (@40nm) was supposed to be (240 nm).  I didn't have achance to proof the post since I had to take my wife to the hospital quickly,  She;s OK but a touch of pneumonia in the Left Lower lung.
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #72 on: March 16, 2012, 05:11:56 PM »

For those who did not load the Google Earth ocean current file you can play a Video instead. You can save the video to your hard drive by right clicking the Video link and then select "Save Target As" or "Save Link As" depending on the browser.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2012, 05:14:58 PM by Heath Smith »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #73 on: March 16, 2012, 05:16:52 PM »


Sorry to hear that Harry, I hope she gets well soon.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #74 on: March 16, 2012, 06:10:47 PM »


Heath
Thanks, I appreciate that, things looking good, they have her on two types of antibiotics, pain killers, Breathing theraoy and things are looking good.

Liked your video of currents.
 Lots of people don't realize that within the general current paths, like the North Pacific Gyre which moves in a clockwise fashion and the south Pacific Gyre which moves in a counter clockwise fashion  And the North Equatorial Current that moves East to West and theSouth Equatorial Current that also moves East to West, there are the Northern Equatorial Counter-Curret moving West to East (Thus the name counter current) and the Southern Equatorial Counter-Current also moving West to East.  Has to do with the Coriolis Effect and the conservation of momentum, energy, and angular momentum associated with a rotating globe.
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