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Author Topic: The Dole Derby  (Read 163732 times)

Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #105 on: March 18, 2012, 01:37:50 PM »


Ok, Credit is due to the AF Manual, but its statement "You can't go far in a raft."(emphasis mine, hjh) is demonstrably wrong.  Rickenberger went far, Zamperini went far, the Robertsons went far, I don't know how many others went far.  I'm not including Captain Bligh cause he and his men were in a boat.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #106 on: March 18, 2012, 01:44:10 PM »


Yeppers, the large rapidly moving rivers in Wisconsin in the spring can be cold.  That's why I wore a wet-suit, bootees, gloves and high-flotation life preserver.  By wearing a neoprene "skirt" stretched over the cockpit of the canoe/kayak and fastened to my waist I became a part of the craft and water couldn't get into the canoe/kayak.  Until ya turn over and have to exit the craft. But even then not a lot of water gets nto the craft cause there are air-filled flotation "bags"  fore and aft of the cockpit.

No, never encountered an eddy that long, the objective was always to get downstream as safely as possible in as challenging a river as posible without losing your life or limb or craft or "stuff".Kinda like flying, hours of boredom separated by moments of sheer terror, on ly without the boredom, LOL.
I've canoed on the Wisconsin River between the Dells and Portage, nothing too challenging there.

gl
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #107 on: March 18, 2012, 01:56:55 PM »


Ok, Credit is due to the AF Manual, but its statement "You can't go far in a raft."(emphasis mine, hjh) is demonstrably wrong.  Rickenberger went far, Zamperini went far, the Robertsons went far, I don't know how many others went far.  I'm not including Captain Bligh cause he and his men were in a boat.
No it isn't "demonstrably wrong," a couple of extreme cases do not disprove a general rule. For instance, the record for holding one's breath while freediving is 4 minutes and 24 seconds. So since we know that this is a fact, will you permit to me chain a hundred pound anchor to your feet and drop you into the ocean if I promise to pull you up after only 4 minutes and zero seconds? Does this one record event change the general rule that people can't  hold their breath for more than 4 minutes?

( If I remember correctly, the Robertson's also had a dinghy in addition to their life raft.)

gl
« Last Edit: March 18, 2012, 05:02:43 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #108 on: March 18, 2012, 01:58:23 PM »


I found an interesting note about Ms Doran. She was wearing a pair of Oxford Shoes when she boarded the plane. There is a nice picture of these shoes on page 11 of this PDF file. If someone could determine a scale based on an object in the photo, like a belt for example, perhaps her shoe size could be determined as was other photos associated with Earhart.

I read an analysis of the shoes at TIGHAR here labeled "Shoe Fetish". Although the manufacturer believed the Cat Paw replacement heel to have been made in the mid-1930s, there does not seem to be a definitive date given for the production year of the heel.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #109 on: March 18, 2012, 02:16:07 PM »


I wasn't talking about the Wisconsin River, that's a float river.  I was talking about the rivers in Wiscinsin like The Wolf, a class 3 river with many class 4 rapids; the Peshtigo, class 3-1/2 river with many class 4 rapids and even one class 5, The North and South Forks of the Flambeau, and the Bois Brule, almost a class 3 but with two long stretches that are class 4 rapids.

The only time I ever bailed out, i. e. stopped canoeing and walked out, from was the St. Francis River in Missouri/Arkansas during the spring.  Every rapids was at least class 3' most were Class 4 and hadn't even got to the stretch that was marked as really dangerous on the map.  That stretch was about 4 miles long of continnuous class 4's with a coupla class 5s thrown in.  Discretion became the better part of valor and we all just quit and carried our canooes out and hitched a ride back to our cars at the put in point.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #110 on: March 18, 2012, 02:31:51 PM »


Gary
Yes,  they had a dinghy and a raft.  There were 6 of them, Mr and Mrs, their daughter, twin sons and a crew member that they took on board near the Panama Canal.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #111 on: March 18, 2012, 03:07:40 PM »


Sorry about the thread drift (more like  hijacking, hehe)  I'll stifle myself. Or at least I'll try.  LOL
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #112 on: March 19, 2012, 12:27:29 PM »


Gary
A coupla of links to general articles about the Hawaiian Lee Counter- Current (HLCC)  These articles reference other articles describing the research.  I don't have access to the Science journal online so I haven't read the articles by Dr.Xie.  I'm trying to get access.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Wake/ - 27k - Cached - Similar pages

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaiian_Islands - 136k - Cached - Similar pages

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Erik

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #113 on: March 19, 2012, 08:10:30 PM »

Sorry for the interuption..... Hot off the press....

The US State department will be having a live press briefing on AE tomorrow morning Tuesday 9am.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/03/186037.htm

Live streaming video from what I hear.

http://video.state.gov/
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #114 on: March 19, 2012, 11:29:32 PM »

Sorry for the interuption..... Hot off the press....

The US State department will be having a live press briefing on AE tomorrow morning Tuesday 9am.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/03/186037.htm

Live streaming video from what I hear.

http://video.state.gov/

Read this.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #115 on: March 20, 2012, 02:26:36 AM »


Gary
A coupla of links to general articles about the Hawaiian Lee Counter- Current (HLCC)  These articles reference other articles describing the research.  I don't have access to the Science journal online so I haven't read the articles by Dr.Xie.  I'm trying to get access.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Wake/ - 27k - Cached - Similar pages

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaiian_Islands - 136k - Cached - Similar pages
I looked at your sources and I have attached the two charts from the Wikepedia article that you referenced. They do not support your prior arguments. You claimed that there was a south setting current created in the wake of the Hawaiian islands that penetrated the location where Doran presumably crashed and that this current was in a position to push Doran towards Gardner. Neither of the sources you posted shows any such current. The only current produced by the wake of the islands is west of Hawaii flowing eastward and Doran crashed 600 miles south of Hawaii, nowhere near any anomalous currents. The second attached chart that you relied on shows only the same westward flowing equatorial current in Doran's area that is shown on the pilot charts that I posted, in the areas of interest.

You also claimed that there were currents up to 4 miles per hour in the area. The highest current speed shown on the chart you relied on is only 0.2 meters per second, which is only 0.4 mph, so you were off by a factor of 10.

gl
« Last Edit: March 20, 2012, 03:39:02 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #116 on: March 20, 2012, 06:59:35 PM »


When the Navy was searching for the lost airplanes when they disappeared, they put a few guys in the same type of life raft to see where they would drift to. It was so variable that they could not make any conclusions out of their test. They pulled the sailors out of the raft and gave up.

In general the ocean currents are moving around 2.5 knots, the trade winds at 10.5 knots but these are just averages. The real world is much more dynamic and rapidly changing. Check out an example animation here that gives the forecast out to 180 hrs.

It seems to be that the surface winds would have the greatest impact as to where survivors might have drifted off to. It would probably be impossible to predict what the winds in the Pacific were back in 1927. Perhaps you could dig up an old shop log but that seems doubtful. I am not sure if the Navy was keeping logs back then or whether or not they even bothered to generate a report of their search attempts.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #117 on: March 21, 2012, 04:15:28 AM »


When the Navy was searching for the lost airplanes when they disappeared, they put a few guys in the same type of life raft to see where they would drift to. It was so variable that they could not make any conclusions out of their test. They pulled the sailors out of the raft and gave up.

In general the ocean currents are moving around 2.5 knots, the trade winds at 10.5 knots but these are just averages. The real world is much more dynamic and rapidly changing. Check out an example animation here that gives the forecast out to 180 hrs.

It seems to be that the surface winds would have the greatest impact as to where survivors might have drifted off to. It would probably be impossible to predict what the winds in the Pacific were back in 1927. Perhaps you could dig up an old shop log but that seems doubtful. I am not sure if the Navy was keeping logs back then or whether or not they even bothered to generate a report of their search attempts.
1. You latest animation also shows how constant the trade winds are in the area of interest. The animation shows variations in the far north Pacific but not in the area of interest. Start the animation and place your mouse pointer at 150 west and 10 north so that you don't get distracted by the changes going on further north, and you will see that the trade winds are very constant, east or northeast 100% of the time.

2. You again make the claim for extremly high current speeds yet all the sources you have given so far do not support that statement. The previous one you gave only shows 0.2 meters per second, 0.4 mph. The government issued Pilot Charts show 0.7 knots for the are in question.

3. We can be fairly certain that the information in the pilot charts accurately represent the conditions existing in the area in question over the many day period due to the principle of "reduction to the mean." The pilot charts incorporate more than a hundred years of data and are designed to be valid for a particular month of any year, including 1927.

4. Contrary to your claim that the Navy give up in predicting the drift of a life raft there are many tables in the National SAR Manual to accomplish making that prediction. The tables state, "With sustained winds of 6 hours or more, wind current speed will be 5% of wind speed with direction downwind." The winds in the area where you presume Doran splashed down are out of the east to northeast 90% of the time at force 4 which is 11 to 16 knots, 13.5 average. 5% of 13.5 is 0.675 knots, a whole lot less that the 2.5 knots that you claim and this current speed is the same as the 0.7 knots as shown in the Pilot chart for the area.

5. Since I had my National SAR Manual (1986) opened I scanned the table of water needs. Look at the graph for 80° F, about the air temperature for Doran, and you will see that it takes only one quart per day to sustain life indefinitely IN THE DESERT and less water is needed in other climates, such as on the sea.   

gl
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #118 on: March 21, 2012, 04:32:29 AM »


I need to get to work but here is an animation of the South Pacific. I am curious why you emphasize the winds out of the East and North-East, that is exactly what I have been saying since this thread was started. Are you suggesting that winds from the E or NE would have blown them back to Hawaii?

As to the "average trade wind speeds" and "average current speeds", just type them in to Google and you will see plenty of references.

The charts over the past one hundred years are useful in general terms, like for plotting a trip, but like any Almanac, they are not intended to give you accurate real-time data. If someone is lost at see, real-time observations are used not Almanacs.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #119 on: March 21, 2012, 10:32:08 AM »


Heath
Yes, the old "general" (as averaged over some period of time, days, weeks, months, years, well you get the point) compared to the "specific" (exists at a definite time and place) conundrum.  It reminds me of the story about the man 6'-6" tall that drowned standing up in the River with an "average" depth of 5'.  He stepped into the 8' hole that wasn't on the chart even though it was included in the calculation of the average.
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