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Author Topic: The Dole Derby  (Read 134283 times)

Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #135 on: March 22, 2012, 05:01:34 AM »

Quote
but with the predominate winds being straight out of the east as we see in the animation

I was not comparing apples to oranges, I was comparing the March charts to a more than likely very accurate model of the winds over the next week. The point is that the chart indicate a dominate Easterly when for most of the week there are dominate North-Easterly winds all the way from Hawaii to the Phoenix island group. The point is that you cannot make a prediction of where an object would float to in the Pacific based solely on the charts and simple probability calculations. Obviously we do not have any data from 1927 to compare with but we can be fairly certain that if the conditions do not exactly match in March they will not exactly match in August. I have a pretty good memory so we will review this in August.

And get them for every week in August.

gl
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #136 on: March 22, 2012, 06:12:16 AM »

Quote
If you don't want to accept the pilot charts then everything becomes jell-o.

They are not an absolute, they are averages for a month over many years. They are charts are more or less averages of averages. As I stated, you cannot rely on them for any given day, week, or weeks of real world data.

My point is that you made the claim that the Ms Doran crew could not possibly have ended up in the Phoenix islands and you presented these charts are the evidence. I think the evidence is clear that such claims cannot be made.

I am not stating that they did end up there, I am saying they might have ended there. I am not presented any evidence to the contrary that they must have ended up there.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #137 on: March 22, 2012, 11:31:32 AM »

Quote
If you don't want to accept the pilot charts then everything becomes jell-o.

They are not an absolute, they are averages for a month over many years. They are charts are more or less averages of averages. As I stated, you cannot rely on them for any given day, week, or weeks of real world data.


I have stated before that I agree with you that you can't predict the weather for any one particular day or even for several days in a month, but you can rely on the pilot charts for the conditions existing during an extended period such as would have been required for Doran to reach Gardner due to "reduction to the mean" and the "law of large numbers." Is it "possible," sure, anything is "possible," martians could have landed and taken her there in their flying saucer. Is it very likely, no.

gl
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #138 on: March 22, 2012, 11:35:01 AM »


I'm trying to understand something.   The ocean is divided up into 300nm squares?  That's 345 statute miles square, right?  mmm that amounts to 119,025 square miles right?

And in that   119,025 square mile area, how many points are measured to find an "average" wind and ocean flow that characterizes the conditions in the time, space  continuum at the time of measurement in each of those 119,025 square mile squares?
And how many times a day, week, month are these measurements made in each 119,025 squqre mile area to come up with the averages displayed on a monthly chart?
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #139 on: March 22, 2012, 11:59:37 AM »


"So my new theory is that in August 1937 there were freaky westerly winds and that she actually drifted east and ended up in South America, married a native chief, and lived happily ever after. "(emphasis mine, hjh)

Oh, by the way (BTW) the Dole Derby was held in August of 1927, not 1937. But that's ok 10 years when averaged over a century or so isn't so bad.  The native chief prolly didn't have a calendar anyway, and prolly couldn't count either.  LOL
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #140 on: March 22, 2012, 12:01:05 PM »


I'm trying to understand something.   The ocean is divided up into 300nm squares?  That's 345 statute miles square, right?  mmm that amounts to 119,025 square miles right?

And in that   119,025 square mile area, how many points are measured to find an "average" wind and ocean flow that characterizes the conditions in the time, space  continuum at the time of measurement in each of those 119,025 square mile squares?
And how many times a day, week, month are these measurements made in each 119,025 squqre mile area to come up with the averages displayed on a monthly chart?

You got something better?

And if you look at statistics, you know that the range of uncertainty gets smaller very fast as the sampling of the data goes up. Just pay attention to the TV news today about the election campaign, the polls give the range of uncertainty in the various polls and the samples there are very small compared to the data sampling used to develop the pilot charts.

gl
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #141 on: March 22, 2012, 12:02:33 PM »


"So my new theory is that in August 1937 there were freaky westerly winds and that she actually drifted east and ended up in South America, married a native chief, and lived happily ever after. "(emphasis mine, hjh)

Oh, by the way (BTW) the Dole Derby was held in August of 1927, not 1937. But that's ok 10 years when averaged over a century or so isn't so bad.  The native chief prolly didn't have a calendar anyway, and prolly couldn't count either.  LOL
O.K. a typo, I did state, correctly, that it was 85 years ago. I'll correct it.

gl
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 03:55:55 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #142 on: March 22, 2012, 12:46:29 PM »


Somethimg Better?
Yes, having survived a ditching of my plane after fuel exhaustion, and managing to get safely into my raft, I would wet my finger with saliva and hold it up to estimate how hard and in which direction the wind was blowing, and tossing something that could float  into the water to see how fast and in which direction the current was flowing.  Then, having that live-time data for my location, my raft buddy and I would paddle, sail(if I had a sail as part of the survival gear in my raft) and use the drift to my best advantage to find our way to habitated land.  (Even if there are only native chiefs to be found there.)

Or We might succumb to common wisdom that "you can't go very far in a raft" (oh, that's right, that didn't come along for 34 years, 1961), so we would just lie back and die.
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #143 on: March 22, 2012, 02:17:37 PM »

Quote
Is it "possible," sure, anything is "possible," martians could have landed and taken her there in their flying saucer. Is it very likely, no.

Since you do not believe that AE made it to Gardner Island, do you suppose that it would have been very unlikely that a woman would have gone missing sometime prior to 1940 on a remote Pacific island and gone completely unnoticed?

It seems very unlikely that any woman would have gone missing in that era without much fanfare in the press, missing from a plane or even a pleasure boat.

If this was a western woman (assuming that Gallagher could tell the difference between a man's shoe and a woman's shoe), and was not a castaway, is it not highly unlikely that anyone with her would have left her bones on the surface? No burial? That seems unlikely as well.

And to be found with a sextant box, that seems highly unlikely as well but there it is.

So who was this unlikely woman that had the audacity to leave her bones on Gardner?

---

Gallagher:

Some months ago working party on Gardner discovered human skull - this was buried and I only recently heard about it. Thorough search has now produced more bones (including lower jaw) part of a shoe a bottle and a sextant box. It would appear that (a) Skeleton is possibly that of a woman,
(b) Shoe was a womans and probably size 10,
(c) Sextant box has two numbers on it 3500 ( stencilled ) and 1542– sextant being old fashioned and probably painted over with black enamel. Bones look more than four years old to me but there seems to be very slight chance that this may be remains of Amelia Earhardt. If United States authorities find that above evidence fits into general description, perhaps they could supply some dental information as many teeth are intact. Am holding latest finds for present but have not exhumed skull. There is no local indication that this discovery is related to wreck of the "Norwich City".  Gallagher.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #144 on: March 22, 2012, 03:54:11 PM »

Quote
Is it "possible," sure, anything is "possible," martians could have landed and taken her there in their flying saucer. Is it very likely, no.

Since you do not believe that AE made it to Gardner Island, do you suppose that it would have been very unlikely that a woman would have gone missing sometime prior to 1940 on a remote Pacific island and gone completely unnoticed?

It seems very unlikely that any woman would have gone missing in that era without much fanfare in the press, missing from a plane or even a pleasure boat.

If this was a western woman (assuming that Gallagher could tell the difference between a man's shoe and a woman's shoe), and was not a castaway, is it not highly unlikely that anyone with her would have left her bones on the surface? No burial?

Excuse me, as I read the quote from Gallagher that you included, it said that the skull was buried. Am I not reading this correctly?
Quote
That seems unlikely as well.

And to be found with a sextant box, that seems highly unlikely as well but there it is.

So who was this unlikely woman that had the audacity to leave her bones on Gardner?

---

Gallagher:

Some months ago working party on Gardner discovered human skull - this was buried and I only recently heard about it. Thorough search has now produced more bones (including lower jaw) part of a shoe a bottle and a sextant box. It would appear that (a) Skeleton is possibly that of a woman,
(b) Shoe was a womans and probably size 10,
(c) Sextant box has two numbers on it 3500 ( stencilled ) and 1542– sextant being old fashioned and probably painted over with black enamel. Bones look more than four years old to me but there seems to be very slight chance that this may be remains of Amelia Earhardt. If United States authorities find that above evidence fits into general description, perhaps they could supply some dental information as many teeth are intact. Am holding latest finds for present but have not exhumed skull. There is no local indication that this discovery is related to wreck of the "Norwich City".  Gallagher.
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #145 on: March 22, 2012, 04:26:29 PM »

The Bones Chronology

I believe that I had read somewhere that it was partially buried.

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Your telegram No. 71. Information has been passed on to the High Commissioner particularly with a view to identifying number of sextant box. Information on following points, where possible, would be of interest:
(a) How deep was skeleton buried when found,
(b) How far from shore,
(c) In your opinion does burial appear deliberate or could it be accounted for by encroachments of sand, etc.,
(d) Is site of an exposed one (i.e. if the body of Mrs. Putnam had lain there is it likely that it would have been spotted by aerial searchers)?
(e) In what state of preservation is shoe,
(f) If well preserved does it appears to be of modern style or old fashioned,
(g) Is there any indication as to contents of bottle. Do you know anything of wreck of "Norwich City" — e.g. when did it takes place, were any lives lost and how long were survivors marooned at Gardner Island? Resident.

---

Your telegram No. 66.
(a) Skeleton was not buried – skull was buried after discovery by natives (coconut crabs had scattered many bones),
(b) l00 feet from high water ordinary springs,
(c) Improbable,
(d) Only part of sole remains,
(f) Appears to have been stoutish walking shoe or heavy sandal,
(g) "Benedictine" bottle but no indication of contents, There are indications that person was alive when cast ashore – fire, birds killed, etc., "Norwich City" wrecked and caught fire 1930 or 1932. Number of crew sailed to Fiji in lifeboat, remainder picked up later at Gardner by "Ralum". Think Board of Enquiry held Suva - loss of life not known. This information derived from gossip only.
Gallagher.

---


« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 04:29:31 PM by Heath Smith »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #146 on: March 22, 2012, 04:37:33 PM »


Somethimg Better?

By asking if you had something better I thought it was clear that I was asking if you had actual weather information for the area for August 1927 that we can now use to analyze her possible drift, do you?
Quote
Yes, having survived a ditching of my plane after fuel exhaustion, and managing to get safely into my raft, I would wet my finger with saliva and hold it up to estimate how hard and in which direction the wind was blowing, and tossing something that could float  into the water to see how fast and in which direction the current was flowing. 

Harry, Harry, Harry. I know that you know better than this. The only way to measure the current by dropping something over the side is if you are at anchor so that your boat doesn't move itself with the current. I bet you can think back to a time when you were conoeing and you stopped paddling and your canoe came to a stop trough the water, you peeled an orange and threw the peel over the side and the peel just stayed in the same place, right next to your canoe. You, in your canoe, and the peel were driifting at the exact same speed in the current.

A similar problem with measuring the true wind, you could only measure the relative wind with your method so in order to determine the true wind you would have to know the speed and direction of the raft over the bottom and then do a vector diagram to come up with the true wind.
Quote

Then, having that live-time data for my location, my raft buddy and I would paddle, sail(if I had a sail as part of the survival gear in my raft) and use the drift to my best advantage to find our way to habitated land.  (Even if there are only native chiefs to be found there.)

Or We might succumb to common wisdom that "you can't go very far in a raft" (oh, that's right, that didn't come along for 34 years, 1961), so we would just lie back and die.

Since Doran was aiming for Hawaii she would know that Hawaii was the closest land and would attempt to head for it. There is even less reason to believe that Doran knew of the existence of the Phoenix Islands than that Earhart knew of their existence.

gl
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 04:42:33 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #147 on: March 22, 2012, 11:25:45 PM »


Gary, Gary, Gary
I'm sure that you remember how the sailors of "Olden Days" estimated their speed.  They threw a log tied to a rope into the sea alongside the ship and timed the length of time it took for the log to appear  to move a known distance (two points marked on the ship's railing). It was assumed that the log remained stationary as the ship moved.   No easy  feat when measuring time with an hourglass.  The measurement was entered into a book which came to be called a "Log-Book"

As time progressed, the rope to which the log was tied had "knots" tied in it.  the log was dropped over the stern and assumed to remain stationary as the ship moved away from the log and dragging the rope along with it.  The log keeper counted the number of "knots" in the rope that were dragged thru his hands in a set period of time..  The distance between the knots was a fixed distance such that each knot in the fixed time represented a speed of one nautical mile per hour.  That's where the term "knot" came from.  It eliminated the calculation time by allowing the distance to be measured in a fixed time by just counting knots in the rope.  Ahh Progress.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #148 on: March 22, 2012, 11:37:45 PM »


Gary, Gary, Gary
I'm sure that you remember how the sailors of "Olden Days" estimated their speed.  They threw a log tied to a rope into the sea alongside the ship and timed the length of time it took for the log to appear  to move a known distance (two points marked on the ship's railing). It was assumed that the log remained stationary as the ship moved.   No easy  feat when measuring time with an hourglass.  The measurement was entered into a book which came to be called a "Log-Book"

As time progressed, the rope to which the log was tied had "knots" tied in it.  the log was dropped over the stern and assumed to remain stationary as the ship moved away from the log and dragging the rope along with it.  The log keeper counted the number of "knots" in the rope that were dragged thru his hands in a set period of time..  The distance between the knots was a fixed distance such that each knot in the fixed time represented a speed of one nautical mile per hour.  That's where the term "knot" came from.  It eliminated the calculation time by allowing the distance to be measured in a fixed time by just counting knots in the rope.  Ahh Progress.
Of course, but that measures the speed of the boat through the water but tells you nothing about the current, the movement of the water over the bottom. You said, "tossing something that could float  into the water to see how fast and in which direction the current was flowing." You claimed that you could measure the direction and speed of the water with the equivalent of the log and that is not possible. To measure the current you must anchor your boat so that it cannot move with the current then the boat will stay stationary with respect to the bottom and the movement of the floating object past the boat will be at the same speed and direction as the water over the bottom so will be a measurement of the current.

gl
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 11:39:33 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #149 on: March 23, 2012, 10:13:57 AM »


Gary
Making two measurements over a fixed distance, say the length of your canoe or raft, one with the current and one against the current allows the estimation of the speed of the current.  It's equal to the distance measured divided by the difference between the two measurements divided by 2 and then converted into mph using the conversion 22 feet per second equals 15 mph. 
Here's how ya do it.
Ya put the floater, say a red and white bobber in the water at the nose and paddle with the current and timing how long it takes to pass the bobber till it is at the stern, i.e. the length of the canoe, raft.  Then ya turn the canoe, raft around and do the same thing against the current.

It's a lot like the famous Michelson-Morley experiment that was done to determine the presence of the Aether thought to be the medium for propagating light.  They split a light beam into two parts and directed them over a fixed, known distance at right angles to each other and looked for a difference in time for each part to travel the distance.  That difference would tell them of the presence of the Aether.  They didn't find a difference and Einstein used their results to deduce that there was no Aether and no speed greater than the speed of light.
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