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Author Topic: The Dole Derby  (Read 163816 times)

Erik

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #120 on: March 21, 2012, 11:05:19 AM »

The Colorado deck logs give a good idea of what the currents and winds were like.  The Colorado sailed from Hawaii to Gardner.  It's logs indicated sea currents generally from the east at 1-2 knots (sometimes as much as 3-4), and the wind speeds generally from the east around 10 knots (sometimes as much as 20-30).
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #121 on: March 21, 2012, 11:19:03 AM »


Erik
Thanks for that info. (now comes he "however")  However, Hawaii is in the Northern Hemisphere and Gardner is in the Southern Hemispere  Hawaii is about 2000 miles North of Gardner and I wonder how they got thru the North Equatorial Counter-Current and the South Equatorial Counter Current both of which flow from West to East (that's why they are called "Counter-Currents")??
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #122 on: March 21, 2012, 12:49:04 PM »


Perhaps they weren't measureing the currents wwhen they were near and crossing the equator?  Who knows??
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #123 on: March 21, 2012, 01:37:14 PM »


Erik
Thanks for that info. (now comes he "however")  However, Hawaii is in the Northern Hemisphere and Gardner is in the Southern Hemispere  Hawaii is about 2000 miles North of Gardner and I wonder how they got thru the North Equatorial Counter-Current and the South Equatorial Counter Current both of which flow from West to East (that's why they are called "Counter-Currents")??
And how do they get through the SOUTH-east trade winds that exist south of the counter-current in August? These winds from the south-east blow towards the NORTH-west and the north blowing component would keep a raft from drifting further south for the necessary 600 nautical miles to get to Gardner.

Your example of a six foot man drowning in a river with a five foot average depth, while humorous, is not relevant for several reasons. First, it depends on how fine grained the average is. If the average depth of the river for its entire length is five feet then for that one spot it did not provide a reasonable estimate of the depth that the guy would encounter. But if there was a chart of the average depth broken up into one foot squares then he would have seen the eight foot hole in the average listed for that spot. The pilot charts break the ocean up into 5 degree squares (300 NM on a side) and also in to 12, one month periods, per year so the accuracy of the prediction for each square and month is of a much higher accuracy than in your humorous example.

If your guy jumped into the river 30 or 40 times it is highly unlikely that he would land in that 8 foot deep hole more than once and he would encounter depths on each jump close to the average 5 foot depth most of the time especially as he was moving down the shoreline between each leap just as the life raft would be doing in the open ocean. You're right, if you have actual measured weather data for the period then your use that to predict the drift, do you have that data for Doran? If you don't have that data then you must use the best available data and that is contained in the pilot chart. I have already said that on any particular day that the average trade wind might not be present, it might be the one day out of a hundred when the wind is out of the south-west, or on the second day or even the third. But for a 30 or 40 day period we can be very sure that the winds encountered were much closer to the winds depicted on the pilot chart than to the outlier south-west wind.

gl
« Last Edit: April 22, 2012, 02:46:18 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #124 on: March 21, 2012, 02:24:03 PM »

Quote
And how do they get through the SOUTH-east trade winds that exist south of the counter-current? These winds from the south-east blow towards the NORTH-west and the north blowing component would keep a raft from drifting further south for the necessary 600 nautical miles to get to Gardner.

I am a bit confused here, are you saying that the seasonal wind patterns, in August with be out of the South-East?

I posted previously, the Northern Pacific and Southern Pacific animations for the 168 hours (1 week), just as an example, the winds would be out of the North-East (mostly) and the East all the way from Hawaii down to the Phoenix island group.

Are you suggesting that the wind always blows from the South-East South of the counter current? If that is the case, why is that not the pattern this week?
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #125 on: March 21, 2012, 02:55:26 PM »


From "Shooting Star: The First Attempt By A Woman To Reach Hawaii By Air":

On August 20, the Navy conducted an experiment by placing three men in a rubber raft similar to the one carried by Miss Doran Golden Eagle and Dallas Spirit. They discovered that although the seas were relatively calm, waves washed over the sides necessitating constant bailing. In addition, light winds blew the raft so that the ocean currents did not prevail, and its course was erratic. And, the Navy concluded the small craft was uncomfortably overcrowded with three passengers. As the hours and days passed the conclusion became clear; neither the crew of Miss Doran or Golden Eagle had survived.

The Navy first intended to search for a week. However, the fact that John Rodgers and his crew had drifted and sailed four-hundred-and-fifty miles in nine days, the Navy kept up a limited search for the downed planes for another two days before giving up On Thursday, August 25, all ships began to head for port. The last area to be searched was north and west of the Hawaiian Islands in case the fliers had overshot their target.

DuRose, Richard (2011-09-02). Shooting Star: The First Attempt By A Woman To Reach Hawaii By Air (Kindle Locations 1121-1128).  Kindle Edition.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #126 on: March 21, 2012, 03:17:06 PM »

Quote
And how do they get through the SOUTH-east trade winds that exist south of the counter-current? These winds from the south-east blow towards the NORTH-west and the north blowing component would keep a raft from drifting further south for the necessary 600 nautical miles to get to Gardner.

I am a bit confused here, are you saying that the seasonal wind patterns, in August with be out of the South-East?

I posted previously, the Northern Pacific and Southern Pacific animations for the 168 hours (1 week), just as an example, the winds would be out of the North-East (mostly) and the East all the way from Hawaii down to the Phoenix island group.

Are you suggesting that the wind always blows from the South-East South of the counter current? If that is the case, why is that not the pattern this week?
No, the wind south of the counter current does not ALWAYS blow from the south but it does most of the time in August and over a period of days it can be expected to be out of the south a whole lot more often than out the north, see attached excerpt from the August pilot chart.

gl
« Last Edit: March 26, 2012, 04:32:50 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #127 on: March 21, 2012, 03:29:53 PM »


Just a guess, but I would think that those young men (Peddlar and Knope) would be paddling their raft as strenously as they could in order to maintain a desired direction.
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #128 on: March 21, 2012, 03:42:27 PM »

Quote
see attached excerpt from the August pilot chart.

Can you post a link to the source of your charts or are these scanned images?

I would like to see the chart for March.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #129 on: March 21, 2012, 04:44:50 PM »

Quote
see attached excerpt from the August pilot chart.

Can you post a link to the source of your charts or are these scanned images?

I would like to see the chart for March.
I did a long time ago, go to message # 87.

gl
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #130 on: March 21, 2012, 05:55:07 PM »


Ok, attached is the chart for March. Do you think that the chart is a good reflection of reality (See animations posted previously)? Most of the readings between Hawaii and the Phoenix Islands on the chart would indicate a prevailing most Easterly wind. Looking at the real data, the winds are soundly out of the North-East in the region of interest.

While they might be a good measure on average, they are an approximation that often does not reflect reality.

Like I said before, the weather systems are far more dynamic than can be captured on monthly almanacs.
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Erik

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #131 on: March 21, 2012, 06:03:26 PM »


Erik
Thanks for that info. (now comes he "however")  However, Hawaii is in the Northern Hemisphere and Gardner is in the Southern Hemispere  Hawaii is about 2000 miles North of Gardner and I wonder how they got thru the North Equatorial Counter-Current and the South Equatorial Counter Current both of which flow from West to East (that's why they are called "Counter-Currents")??

Dunno.  But the Colorado's logs include hourly postings throughtout the 2000 mile journey.  Most of the logs indicate ranges from NNE to SSE, all 'westerly'.  There are no readings that indicate 'easterly' flow.

Here is a sample.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #132 on: March 22, 2012, 02:49:02 AM »


Ok, attached is the chart for March. Do you think that the chart is a good reflection of reality (See animations posted previously)? Most of the readings between Hawaii and the Phoenix Islands on the chart would indicate a prevailing most Easterly wind. Looking at the real data, the winds are soundly out of the North-East in the region of interest.

While they might be a good measure on average, they are an approximation that often does not reflect reality.

Like I said before, the weather systems are far more dynamic than can be captured on monthly almanacs.
Well now you are purposefully trying to compare apples with oranges. You link to an animation of the winds in March and then claim that pilot charts are not accurate because the pilot chart for August, which does not show significant northerly winds, does not accurately show the winds in March. Here's some news for you, the winds are different in March than in August.

When you compare the forecast winds in your animation (and they are just forecasts since they show an animation for several days that have not yet arrived so you do not have firm data even in the animation.) Contrary to your disparagement of the accuracy of the pilot charts, if you look at the pilot chart wind roses carefully you will see that they are in agreement with your animation. Perhaps you are not interpreting the wind roses correctly for the March pilot chart but they accurately predict significant northeast winds, but with the predominate winds being straight out of the east as we see in the animation. I have attached an annotated March pilot chart calling your attention to the northeast symbols. So, contrary to what you have claimed, the animation actually confirms the accuracy of the March pilot chart and, by implication, that the August pilot charts are also accurate. I have a suggestion for you, set your alarm clock for August and when you wake up, get the animation for the August winds and then compare them to the wind roses in the August pilot chart.  You can also compare the March annotated pilot chart with the annotated August pilot chart that I have also attached. You can see that in August there are southeast winds between 31% and 48% of the time and virtually no winds out of the north which is very different from the March winds that are between 15% and 25% out of the northeast.

gl
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 02:59:47 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Heath Smith

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #133 on: March 22, 2012, 03:59:29 AM »

Quote
but with the predominate winds being straight out of the east as we see in the animation

I was not comparing apples to oranges, I was comparing the March charts to a more than likely very accurate model of the winds over the next week. The point is that the chart indicate a dominate Easterly when for most of the week there are dominate North-Easterly winds all the way from Hawaii to the Phoenix island group. The point is that you cannot make a prediction of where an object would float to in the Pacific based solely on the charts and simple probability calculations. Obviously we do not have any data from 1927 to compare with but we can be fairly certain that if the conditions do not exactly match in March they will not exactly match in August. I have a pretty good memory so we will review this in August.

I believe that you had originally inferred that the Ms Doran could not have possibly ended up in the Phoenix island group based upon these charts and the dominate wind direction predictions in the charts. Are you still holding to that position or have you had time to reconsider?
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The Dole Derby
« Reply #134 on: March 22, 2012, 04:47:12 AM »

Quote
but with the predominate winds being straight out of the east as we see in the animation

I was not comparing apples to oranges, I was comparing the March charts to a more than likely very accurate model of the winds over the next week. The point is that the chart indicate a dominate Easterly when for most of the week there are dominate North-Easterly winds all the way from Hawaii to the Phoenix island group. The point is that you cannot make a prediction of where an object would float to in the Pacific based solely on the charts and simple probability calculations. Obviously we do not have any data from 1927 to compare with but we can be fairly certain that if the conditions do not exactly match in March they will not exactly match in August. I have a pretty good memory so we will review this in August.

I believe that you had originally inferred that the Ms Doran could not have possibly ended up in the Phoenix island group based upon these charts and the dominate wind direction predictions in the charts. Are you still holding to that position or have you had time to reconsider?
Absolutely, they are the best information we have about the weather conditions that existed at the time.  If you have actual data then that would be better, but you don't. And the March pilot chart also shows northeast winds from Hawaii down to the area of the counter-current, just like the animation. And, as I also said, the pilot chart also shows significant northeast wind percentages in the area just south of the counter-current.  It is too bad you didn't get animations for the first three weeks of March. So you apparently believe that a one week's sample of data in just one year is a more accurate predictor of the weather conditions encountered 85 years ago than all the many years of data that was compiled into the pilot charts. That's an interesting position to take and conflicts what we know about statistical analysis. If you don't want to accept the pilot charts then everything becomes jell-o. So my new theory is that in August 1927 there were freaky westerly winds and that she actually drifted east and ended up in South America, married a native chief, and lived happily ever after.

gl
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 12:03:09 PM by Gary LaPook »
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