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Author Topic: Different island .. I got pictures.  (Read 19360 times)

Christian Stock

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #60 on: February 13, 2023, 07:27:48 AM »

Travis:
Your entire hypothesis is based upon 3 pictures, which have not been independently verified/validated as a Lockheed L-10.  That should be your first priority.  As others have stated, there are other planes with similar features.  Having additional photos/documentation of the plane in question would either greatly strengthen your argument or completely dissolve the hypothesis.

You also disregard known facts, e.g. the amount of fuel Earhart left with; her planned speed was 150 mph in air so that winds would affect her speed over ground.  No other AE researcher has come up with a return leg as far as you propose based upon speed over the ground and fuel consumption (yes, some have proposed a return to Micronesia, well short of NG however).

Your arguments are such that you have reached a conclusion and are searching for data that supports that conclusion.  That is not the way to do rigorous scientific or historical research.  One must first collect all of the facts (yes, even the conflicting ones), and find a hypothesis that fits as many of the facts as possible.  Adjustments or outright abandonment of a hypothesis is usually a follow-on, based upon new information or a better fitting of the facts. 

I have spent the past 25+ years trying to prove the Niku hypothesis to be wrong, and was one of the first researchers to document the weather, navigation, possible flight paths, all radio messages in a database for others to use.  There are still parts of the Niku hypothesis is have a bias against (mostly environmental), but after all this time, I have not been able to disprove the hypothesis.

Again, I go back to the "fact" of the 3 photos of an underwater aircraft wreck as being one of the most crucial facts in your case.  If it can be proved to be a L-10, great!  Let's go with it!  But if it isn't and can be proven not to be, all of the conjecture assuming it is an L-10 is simply blowing dust in the wind, so to speak.

Less than cooperative locals who I can't trust make this all pretty difficult.  They see the gas tanks in the back of the plane and think they are full of gold and then stop being helpful thinking I am going to get rich by sending me pictures and a country who's government monitors all communications in an out after they feel like they got screwed with cooperating on getting the "swamp ghost" shipped out of there make this all pretty difficult.  I have an Australian diver on the island and I have sent him out to dive twice where they took him to the wrong location and waste his time because they don't trust him either.  Someone in PNG even posted this(attached) on Facebook because they were worried I was going to go there myself...  I am still working on getting more pictures...


It's not the airplane.

It's not an L-10.


I hope you haven't sent them much money. They are just telling you want you want to hear. They don't want you or the Australian diver there because you will quickly see that they are swindling you. Run, don't walk, away from this.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2023, 07:30:45 AM by Christian Stock »
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Matt Revington

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #61 on: February 13, 2023, 07:32:13 AM »

Thanks Christian
But the basic question remains, you have pictures of a submerged aircraft, is there a plausible explanation for how it is currently submerged but would have been dry enough to send radio messages for several days after landing.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #62 on: February 13, 2023, 08:49:50 AM »


TIGHAR surveyed B-17E 41-2446 in 1986.  The video of the expedition, Lady In Waiting is dubbed from an ancient VHS copy so the quality is, shall we say, appropriately historic.  The 39 year-old investigator doesn't look like that anymore either.

The name "Swamp Ghost" was coined by the RAAF helicopter pilots who first spotted the wreck.  Our friend, Fred Eaton, who had been the pilot, hated the name.  The airplane did not have a name.  We simply called "The Agaiambo E" after the name of the swamp. It was the lead article in the very first edition of TIGHAR Tracks.

We were working with the Travis Air Force Base Museum to recover the airplane, but Papua New Guinea imposed a moratorium on all WII aircraft recoveries due to the abuses of American warbird salvagers.  In 2006, Philadelphia builder Fred Hagen bribed PNG officials and lifted the aircraft out of the swamp with a rented Russian helicopter, significantly damaging the plane in the process. The bomber was impounded and sat corroding on the dock in Lae for years before it was finally exported and eventually, in 2013, ended up at the Pacific Air Museum on Ford Island, Pearl Harbor where it I allegedly being "restored."
 At an Explorers Club meeting in Philadelphia, I told Hagen to his face that I considered what he did to be the worst act of vandalism in aviation history. The aircraft was doing fine in situ.  A properly permitted, competently executed recovery, and prompt exportation to a facility where conservators could stabilize the structure could have resulted in the aircraft's genuine preservation. 
From what Travis says, the fallout from Hagen's crime continues.
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Christian Stock

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #63 on: February 13, 2023, 11:48:18 AM »


TIGHAR surveyed B-17E 41-2446 in 1986.  The video of the expedition, Lady In Waiting is dubbed from an ancient VHS copy so the quality is, shall we say, appropriately historic.  The 39 year-old investigator doesn't look like that anymore either.

The name "Swamp Ghost" was coined by the RAAF helicopter pilots who first spotted the wreck.  Our friend, Fred Eaton, who had been the pilot, hated the name.  The airplane did not have a name.  We simply called "The Agaiambo E" after the name of the swamp. It was the lead article in the very first edition of TIGHAR Tracks.

We were working with the Travis Air Force Base Museum to recover the airplane, but Papua New Guinea imposed a moratorium on all WII aircraft recoveries due to the abuses of American warbird salvagers.  In 2006, Philadelphia builder Fred Hagen bribed PNG officials and lifted the aircraft out of the swamp with a rented Russian helicopter, significantly damaging the plane in the process. The bomber was impounded and sat corroding on the dock in Lae for years before it was finally exported and eventually, in 2013, ended up at the Pacific Air Museum on Ford Island, Pearl Harbor where it I allegedly being "restored."
 At an Explorers Club meeting in Philadelphia, I told Hagen to his face that I considered what he did to be the worst act of vandalism in aviation history. The aircraft was doing fine in situ.  A properly permitted, competently executed recovery, and prompt exportation to a facility where conservators could stabilize the structure could have resulted in the aircraft's genuine preservation. 
From what Travis says, the fallout from Hagen's crime continues.

100 miles over that terrain in a single engine jetranger?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #64 on: February 13, 2023, 12:29:00 PM »

100 miles over that terrain in a single engine jetranger?

Yeah, insane.  The 206 couldn't clear the Owen Stanley mountain range (lowest peaks around 10,000 feet) so we had to sneak through a pass/ravine with dense vertical jungle on each side.  Along the way, the pilot pointed out the wreckage of several aircraft that didn't make it. We had to pull pitch at dawn in order to be done and back to Port Moresby before the mountains got socked in as they do every day by noon.

When he dropped us off on the wing of the bomber and left, we had no communications. No hand-held radio. Satphones were not yet invented.  Loneliest feeling in the world.
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Travis Nutsch

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #65 on: February 13, 2023, 05:02:11 PM »

From what Travis says, the fallout from Hagen's crime continues.

Yup.  I had no idea of the details why they are still upset.  They know her plane is there.  I think they've even made it illegal to photograph war relics in PNG.  AEs plane is obviously not a war relic but my guess is the PNG government has a task force to prevent any evidence of her plane or any others getting out of the country.  All communication in and out of PNG is monitored.  Also check out the obscene calling rates to call PNG from the US.  Probably need to bribe some official.  Any idea who they bribed for the swamp ghost recovery Ric?
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Christian Stock

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #66 on: February 13, 2023, 08:14:14 PM »

From what Travis says, the fallout from Hagen's crime continues.

Yup.  I had no idea of the details why they are still upset.  They know her plane is there.  I think they've even made it illegal to photograph war relics in PNG.  AEs plane is obviously not a war relic but my guess is the PNG government has a task force to prevent any evidence of her plane or any others getting out of the country.  All communication in and out of PNG is monitored.  Also check out the obscene calling rates to call PNG from the US.  Probably need to bribe some official.  Any idea who they bribed for the swamp ghost recovery Ric?

They don't know. They HOPE.

Just like the Republic of Marshall Islands knows her plane is there.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #67 on: February 14, 2023, 07:19:54 AM »

AEs plane is obviously not a war relic but my guess is the PNG government has a task force to prevent any evidence of her plane or any others getting out of the country. 

Why would they do that?

All communication in and out of PNG is monitored.

No it's not.  I communicate with people in PNG all the time by email.  What evidence do you have that communication is monitored?

Probably need to bribe some official.  Any idea who they bribed for the swamp ghost recovery Ric?

I wouldn't tell you if I knew. It sounds like you're willing to be as a big a crook as Hagen.

People in PNG see TIGHAR spending millions of dollars looking for Earhart's airplane so they assume it must be worth a fortune.  Every time somebody stumbles across a wreck it automatically become Earhart's Electra. I used to get, on average, one or two emails every month from somebody in PNG who was sure they'd found Earhart's plane.  I always asked them for photos, but they usually wanted money to hire someone to get photos, or they sent only teaser photos (like your engines).  I never bit.
Others were more gullible. Project Blue Angel is a classic example. You're simply the latest sucker.
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Jeff Lange

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #68 on: February 14, 2023, 08:23:38 AM »

For laughs I visited the Project Blue Angel site- boy are you right Ric, they are REALLY stretching the facts and making mountains out of less than molehills there! WoW!
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Don White

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #69 on: February 16, 2023, 07:45:53 PM »

Not only that, they are taking their time determining that this is not the airplane they seek. That would spoil their fun.
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Don Yee

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #70 on: February 17, 2023, 10:28:10 AM »

In good science (like the kind TIGHAR uses) you build a hypothesis out of known, verifiable evidence.
In contrast, conspiracy theories force evidence to fit a predetermined hypothesis (sometimes resulting in painful mental gymnastics).
Science also uses the KISS principle (a.k.a. Occam's Razor) whereas a lot of conspiracy theories seem to require more and more complicated solutions for each piece of evidence.

- Right now there doesn't seem to be any known, verifiable evidence to show that her Electra is in PNG. The explanations offered so far seem to be very complicated and require faking of information, government cover-ups, nefarious and shady characters, and misinterpretation of vast amounts of known and previously well-analyzed data by lots of people.
- There does seem to be a lot of known, verifiable evidence for her landing and being a castaway on NIKU*, involving rather simple interpretations of evidence, which is in general agreement by skeptics and proponents alike.

*Most of the evidence on NIKU (bones, personal effects) don't have another explanation outside of supporting Earhart's presence (although someone may discover one in the future). There does seem to be lots of possible explanations for the presence of a twin-engine plane from the pre-WW2 era underwater in PNG.


« Last Edit: February 17, 2023, 10:55:49 AM by Don Yee »
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Travis Nutsch

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #71 on: February 18, 2023, 02:46:37 AM »

Well I think we can all agree she landed somewhere a rising tide was getting to the airplane while she was transmitting trying to be rescued.  Nike island is pretty flat no elevation hardly at all.  How come the relatively local search crews were unable to hear her radio calls but Betty in Florida could?  KISS. What is the simple good science explanation for that?
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Matt Revington

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #72 on: February 18, 2023, 06:45:12 AM »

Try searching the forum and the ameliapedia, this group has done a ton of work on those questions, start at the link below
https://tighar.org/wiki/Radio_propagation
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Jeff Lange

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #73 on: February 18, 2023, 08:06:30 AM »

Well I think we can all agree she landed somewhere a rising tide was getting to the airplane while she was transmitting trying to be rescued. 

Yes- I think you would find everyone on this forum would agree to that statement.

Nike island is pretty flat no elevation hardly at all.

Again, the short form of the name for the island is NIKU- you REALLY need to be more accurate!
Jeff Lange

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Travis Nutsch

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Re: Different island .. I got pictures.
« Reply #74 on: February 22, 2023, 11:33:04 PM »

It's got a double tail...

I hope so, because the front of the airplane sure isn't encouraging.

Let's see it.
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