Hail Mary Analysis

[Ric Gillespie]

As for the Hail Mary, it seems the thread is running out of steam......so let me confess that I think the Hail Mary was successful, it just didn't show the Electra. Maybe it showed exactly what is there, nothing.

That's correct, and that's the problem.  The sonar anomaly clearly indicates that there is, or at least was, a rather large "something" there.  But the Hail Mary photos don't show anything there.  So, either whatever was there in 2012 has moved or the Hail Mary operation had the wrong "there."  We have now analyzed the positioning data used to determine the lat/long of the anomaly and find that it is deeply flawed.  We were Hailing Mary in the wrong place.

That image data is consistent with all the other attempts to search that area of reef. Divers,ROV, Sonar.....and not a scrap.

It is true that divers, ROV, and sonar have not turned up a scrap of identifiable Electra wreckage. It is also true that the reef slope below 130 feet has not been thoroughly searched and the anomaly has not been investigated.

I have to accept the true result. The Bevington object led to the anomaly and that led to a banjo.

Say wha????

The castaway camp was always a paradox as to why they would land near the NC and then make a camp at the opposite end of the island within the days before the Lambrecht photo.

There is no paradox.  There is no evidence of human activity at the Seven Site in the Lambrecht photo. There is a possible indication trails at the Seven Site in the 1938 NZ photos.

So I'm personally convinced they landed on the eastern reef, no matter that it is "too rough". They didn't know that and may have decided on the approach to Gardner that the eastern reef looked better for a straight in approach and after flying low along the reef finally had to pick a spot and go for it. And so they ended up near the seven site waiting for rescue.

How do you explain the post-loss radio signals?

[Mark Fuller]

Ric, I always have to respect those like you who have really researched nearly every aspect of this mystery and my opinions are only that, just opinions. I'm not trying to disagree with the evidence trail Tighar has uncovered, in fact, I've believed that evidence and Jeff Glickman's enhanced images of the BO. I don't see how a reef landing on the eastern side precludes the distress calls, because I believe they are real and the evidence points to them being real. I'm just not convinced that they landed near the Norwich City, but may have walked there to find items to help their survival. Betty's entry about "something that sounds like NY" is to me some of the most powerful evidence as it couldn't be faked. I'm really in your camp. Item 2-2-V-1 is nearly conclusive. I only thought that the Lambrecht photo with the report of recent habitation was identifying that location where the bones were found later.  My comment about the banjo (I'm smiling here Ric) only meant that the BO was always interpreted evidence, and could be mistaken. I thought it led to the reef sonar scan which led to the anomaly. But people have interpreted blurry images as " looking like" objects, until someone joked to me about someone seeing a banjo (huh?). So with no malice of intent, I only note that some of the evidence is very interpretive and "could be" mistaken.   All of which is only my opinion, not meant to undermine the heroic effort to get the Hail Mary images.  And much kudos to the guy with the home built ROV. I'm just trying to explain the lack of finding anything and just accepting that the images didn't reveal anything and what does it mean? It "might" mean the plane isn't there.
I'm certain they landed on Gardner, just not sure where. Just discussing, not disagreeing. I'm sorry I'm not a sophisticated blogger, this is the only forum where I've ever commented and maybe I'm not coming off well. So thanks for your personal replies, actually I didn't expect to get replies directly from you. So I'm really impressed.

[Dale O. Beethe]

Ric, do you know how far off the positioning data is?  Is it feet, yards, other side of the island?  I can only imagine how frustrating it has to be to have gotten virtually nothing for what was paid for.

[Ric Gillespie]

The positioning data can be several meters off and it's not constant so it's not possible to make a standard correction.

[Dale O. Beethe]

So what it boils down to is that we don't know what the anomaly is, or if it's there, because there are probably no pictures of that particular spot.  A straight down shot of ocean floor ten feet away from it is likely to show nothing, just as a test hole on land can miss a major discovery by two inches and you never know it's there.  Seems to me the only way you'll really ever know for sure what's there is to have a submersible that will allow human eyes on target in real time.  We can dream, can't we?!!

[Ric Gillespie]

Seems to me the only way you'll really ever know for sure what's there is to have a submersible that will allow human eyes on target in real time.  We can dream, can't we?!!

A functioning ROV should be able to explore the area within, say, 50 meters of the anomaly's reported position but to do a really thorough job of teaching the entire reef slope I'm convinced that a manned submersible is the best choice. Yes, we can dream.

[Daniel Paul Cotts]

Here's some interesting subs to consider for the dream list:

The "flying" sub
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11198906

Owner built. Tourist sub in Honduras. 2660' attained.
www.stanleysubmarines.com/

Following two videos of Stanley sub.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0wF-HALk0w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmeZEYaWImM

Ten Subs you might want. Several might be useful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP8yY1qym9I

[Bob Smith]

All really cool subs, but remember TIGHAR has to afford 2 in case one fails!

[Ric Gillespie]

Ric,
Would finding the wreckage now put TIGHAR in any realistic jeopardy from Mellon and such?  Any legal input worth noting on this possibility?

I can't imagine any way that finding the wreckage would put us in legal jeopardy with anyone. 

[Craig Romig]

I think finding wreckage would strengthen tighars case.

[Ric Gillespie]

I think finding wreckage would strengthen tighars case.

You what's sad?  I can't figure out whether you're serious or being sarcastic.

[Craig Romig]

I'm in favor of tighar theory 100 percent. Proving it would be the greatest thing in the world.

[Ric Gillespie]

I think finding wreckage would strengthen tighars case.

Finding the wreckage of the Electra would not strengthen TIGHAR's case.  It would absolutely prove it.

[Craig Romig]

I meant more or larger chunks of it.

[Bob Smith]

Has any more analysis been done on the "Cook Photo" which was discussed in some detail earlier in the "General Discussion" of about 2013 vintage?