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Author Topic: AE & FN injured?  (Read 97417 times)

Ric Gillespie

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2013, 06:32:59 PM »

I believe if you re-read Will's sentence you will see what he meant,

Will.   reinforce my contention that AE and FN never made it to the Seven Site, or for that matter, very far from the Electra or off the reef toward the beach at all, "between" the time of their landing and July 5 when the transmissions "ceased"

You're right Richie.  Sorry Will.  I misread your post. I agree that AE and possibly FN were not at the Seven Site until some time - maybe weeks - after the the radio transmissions stopped.

Ric not sure if i have read a post on this before but, Have Tighar searched the vicinity of the sign's of recent habitation site for fred's remain's ?

I don't know where the signs of recent habitation were seen.  Do you?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #16 on: May 12, 2013, 06:35:42 PM »

The last credible transmission is on the sixth...

...what was the date of the Navy flyover?

Tha last credible transmission was actually on the evening of July 7th.  The Navy flyover was on the morning of the 9th.
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Jerry Simmons

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2013, 08:04:59 PM »

I'm just a spectator in fact, but I have a question: What if the first camp was near the spot where the plane landed - then for whatever reason FN was the first to succumb from injuries and/or dehydration/starvation, let's say she was able to help him to the shore first. But since AE probably didn't have a shovel with which to dig a substantial grave or at least deep enough to keep the crabs from his body, would she not have deserted that site and move her camp to the opposite end of the island? Near a decaying body would not be pleasant to make a camp. Is this what you folks are thinking is a reason the 7 site is so far away?
Just a thought.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2013, 08:14:20 PM »

I'm just a spectator in fact, but I have a question: What if the first camp was near the spot where the plane landed - then for whatever reason FN was the first to succumb from injuries and/or dehydration/starvation, let's say she was able to help him to the shore first. But since AE probably didn't have a shovel with which to dig a substantial grave or at least deep enough to keep the crabs from his body, would she not have deserted that site and move her camp to the opposite end of the island? Near a decaying body would not be pleasant to make a camp. Is this what you folks are thinking is a reason the 7 site is so far away?
Just a thought.

The first camp, if there was one, was almost certainly on shore at the nearest place to the plane that offered good shade.  We call this theoretical site Camp Zero.  The move to the Seven Site could be motivated by many factors.  The area near the plane is on the lee side of the island and does not get the cooling easterly breezes.  It's a beastly hot place.  Also, there is no easy access to the lagoon for fishing and clams.  The selection of the Seven Site was probably the result of exploring the island for the best place to shelter, get food, collect water and watch for rescue.
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Jerry Simmons

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2013, 08:33:02 PM »

Thanks, Ric, for your prompt reply.
I wish I were independently wealthy, because I'd certainly finance a speedy expedition back to Niki for you. I believe in what you're doing and hope for a definitive conclusion of this mystery.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2013, 08:48:05 PM »

Thanks, Ric, for your prompt reply.
I wish I were independently wealthy, because I'd certainly finance a speedy expedition back to Niki for you. I believe in what you're doing and hope for a definitive conclusion of this mystery.

Thanks Jerry.
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Al Leonard

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #21 on: May 13, 2013, 10:39:04 PM »

I’d like to bring up significant additional point about Thelma Lovelace, who, like Betty Klenck, Mabel Larremore, and yes, those two psychics, reported injuries to Fred and/or Amelia.

Thelma Lovelace said she heard: “We have taken in water, my navigator is badly hurt; (repeat) we are in need of medical care and must have help; we can’t hold on much longer.”

The text of the March of Time broadcast includes the line “SOS…SOS…position 281 north Howland…can’t hold out much longer…motor sinking in water….very wet…”

Notice a similarity? What Lovelace reported hearing sounds to me a lot like the March of Time broadcast, and therefore I don’t find her reported reception to be credible. I think she conflated a March of Time broadcast she heard with her own expectations of an injury to Fred, quite in line with my earlier suggestion on this thread.

I think Ric should agree with me on this because in the post loss catalog, he concludes that Mrs. Joe Arnold (post-loss catalog entry # 177) and Mr. and Mrs. Roland (entry #178) had mistaken a March of Time broadcast for messages from Earhart because they reported hearing this same ‘Can’t hold out much longer’ line from the March of Time script.

Also, there is Charles Miguel, clearly a hoaxer, who reported on July 6 (entry #162) “NRUI NRUI KHAQQ TWO EIGHT ONE NORTH HOWLAND CANNOT HOLD MUCH LONGER DRIFTING NORTHWEST WE ABOVE WATER MOTORS SINKING IN WATER.” In dismissing Mr. Miguel Ric once again points out that “Parts of this alleged signal are identical to the phrasing in the signal “281 NORTH HOWLAND CALL KHAQQ BEYOND NORTH DONT HOLD WITH US MUCH LONGER ABOVE WATER SHUT OFF,” heard at Wailupe the previous day and widely reported in the press.”

-Alf
« Last Edit: May 14, 2013, 06:49:45 AM by Al Leonard »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2013, 07:50:46 AM »

Thelma Lovelace said she heard: “We have taken in water, my navigator is badly hurt; (repeat) we are in need of medical care and must have help; we can’t hold on much longer.”

The text of the March of Time broadcast includes the line “SOS…SOS…position 281 north Howland…can’t hold out much longer…motor sinking in water….very wet…”

The March of Time broadcast was on July 8.  Lovelace said that she heard what she heard on July 7.  In my correspondence with Thelma in 1991 I asked:
"It is easy to see how you can place the time of day (before 8 a.m.) you heard the broadcast by reference to the time your husband had to be at work. But how do you know it was July 7th?"
She replied:
"As I remember, my husband - and the people I repeated the story to - all answered that she had been missing five days.  My husband even said, 'Maybe it was a "show"; a take-off of the event.' I remember I was annoyed at him for saying that."

Of course, she may have had the date wrong but we can't assume she did without evidence that she did.  Thelma claimed that she rejected, at the time, the idea that she had heard a radio show.  Anyone who has heard the March of Time broadcast (TIGHAResearchers have received audio recordings of the show) knows that the narration, music and commercials would make it pretty hard to mistake it for a genuine distress call.

Notice a similarity? What Lovelace reported hearing sounds to me a lot like the March of Time broadcast, and therefore I don’t find her reported reception to be credible. I think she conflated a March of Time broadcast she heard with her own expectations of an injury to Fred, quite in line with my earlier suggestion on this thread.

I think you have it backward.  The radio show contained phrases gleaned from various published accounts of alleged post-loss receptions.  Some variation on "can't hold on much longer" occurs in almost every reported message, credible or not. It's appearance in clearly bogus reports is a classic example of what we might call "expectation bias." You suggested that the same phenomenon may have accounted for reports of injuries - except, as I have shown, that didn't happen.  Only Larremore, Klenck and Lovelace (and, yes, two psychics) mentioned injuries.

I think Ric should agree with me on this because in the post loss catalog, he concludes that Mrs. Joe Arnold (post-loss catalog entry # 177) and Mr. and Mrs. Roland (entry #178) had mistaken a March of Time broadcast for messages from Earhart because they reported hearing this same ‘Can’t hold out much longer’ line from the March of Time script.

We ascribed Arnold and Roland to the March of Time broadcast because they both heard what they heard on the date and at the time when the March of Time show was aired.

Also, there is Charles Miguel, clearly a hoaxer, who reported on July 6 (entry #162) “NRUI NRUI KHAQQ TWO EIGHT ONE NORTH HOWLAND CANNOT HOLD MUCH LONGER DRIFTING NORTHWEST WE ABOVE WATER MOTORS SINKING IN WATER.” In dismissing Mr. Miguel Ric once again points out that “Parts of this alleged signal are identical to the phrasing in the signal “281 NORTH HOWLAND CALL KHAQQ BEYOND NORTH DONT HOLD WITH US MUCH LONGER ABOVE WATER SHUT OFF,” heard at Wailupe the previous day and widely reported in the press.”

Classic example of what I was referring to above. The radio show contained phrases gleaned from various published accounts of alleged post-loss receptions.
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Al Leonard

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #23 on: May 14, 2013, 11:22:09 AM »

Ric,

On numerous occasions on this forum it has been pointed out that decades-old recollections are not reliable. You say “she may have had the date wrong but we can't assume she did without evidence that she did”. The fact that she repeats wording from the March of Time broadcast is in fact that very evidence--that, some fifty years later, Lovelace quite understandably got her date wrong.

I find it odd that you would argue here that it would be hard to mistake the March of Time for a genuine distress call, when you suggested as much yourself about two receptions in the post-loss reception catalog, those of the Rolands and of the Arnolds. I further note that the March Of Time Ameliapedia article
gives yet another example of just such a misunderstanding: “On 8 July 1937, less than a week after Earhart’s Lockheed Electra 10 was lost, the radio operator of an Inter-Island Airways plane (now Hawaiian Airlines) heard a radio transmission he thought was from Amelia Earhart sending an SOS to ships at sea. After reporting this to authorities, it was passed to searchers. Later it was learned he actually heard a shortwave relay of the March of Time dramatization of the Earhart disappearance being sent to Hawaiian radio stations”

I also mentioned the reported reception by Charles Miguel. On July 6 Miguel reported hearing “NRUI NRUI KHAQQ TWO EIGHT ONE NORTH HOWLAND CANNOT HOLD MUCH LONGER DRIFTING NORTHWEST WE ABOVE WATER MOTORS SINKING IN WATER.” In dismissing Mr. Miguel you said that “Parts of this alleged signal are identical to the phrasing in the signal “281 NORTH HOWLAND CALL KHAQQ BEYOND NORTH DONT HOLD WITH US MUCH LONGER ABOVE WATER SHUT OFF,” heard at Wailupe the previous day and widely reported in the press.
 
So, even if Thelma didn’t hear the March of Time broadcast, ‘can’t hold much longer’ was widely reported in the press at least one day before July 7, the day Thelma said she heard Earhart. Thelma could have heard or read the ‘cannot hold much longer’ news accounts prior to July 7, as you say Charles Miguel did. I don't see why you would abandon your own reasoning, Ric.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2013, 11:23:52 AM by Al Leonard »
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Joe Cerniglia

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #24 on: May 14, 2013, 12:34:16 PM »

The analysis is allowing the following contingencies:

1) The press was mistaken and some people claiming radio receptions from Earhart parroted the mistaken or fictitious accounts.

2) The March of Time was mistaken in its dramatization of press reports at the time of Earhart's disappearance and some people claiming radio receptions from Earhart parroted the mistaken dramatization, itself based on mistaken or fictitious press accounts.

One needs, I believe, to allow room for the possibility of an additional contingency:

3) The March of Time and press reports parroted what some people claiming radio receptions from Earhart actually reported hearing when they heard it, and at least some of these reports represent things actually heard on the radio by the hearers (who were not hearing the March of Time.) March of Time was on July 8. Given that no reported receptions, other than 80718HD from the official search, were given the rating of credible on or after July 8, I think it shouldn't be too difficult to rule out March of Time as a factor.  Unless of course, these hearers obtained advance copies of the radio play on the internet.;D Am I missing something?


Joe Cerniglia
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« Last Edit: May 14, 2013, 12:41:37 PM by Joe Cerniglia »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #25 on: May 14, 2013, 01:04:37 PM »

On numerous occasions on this forum it has been pointed out that decades-old recollections are not reliable. You say “she may have had the date wrong but we can't assume she did without evidence that she did”. The fact that she repeats wording from the March of Time broadcast is in fact that very evidence--that, some fifty years later, Lovelace quite understandably got her date wrong.

Once again, your logic escapes me.  You see Lovelace's reference to one phrase that is similar to a phrase used in the March of Time broadcast to be evidence that she misremembered the date but the same or similar phrase occurs in multiple reports that are documented to predate the March of Time broadcast.  As I said before, it's obvious that the radio show contained phrases gleaned from various published accounts of alleged post-loss receptions - not the other way 'round as you contend.

I find it odd that you would argue here that it would be hard to mistake the March of Time for a genuine distress call, when you suggested as much yourself about two receptions in the post-loss reception catalog, those of the Rolands and of the Arnolds. I further note that the March Of Time Ameliapedia article
gives yet another example of just such a misunderstanding: “On 8 July 1937, less than a week after Earhart’s Lockheed Electra 10 was lost, the radio operator of an Inter-Island Airways plane (now Hawaiian Airlines) heard a radio transmission he thought was from Amelia Earhart sending an SOS to ships at sea. After reporting this to authorities, it was passed to searchers. Later it was learned he actually heard a shortwave relay of the March of Time dramatization of the Earhart disappearance being sent to Hawaiian radio stations”

I leave it to those who have heard the recording of the actual show to judge how difficult it is to distinguish it from a genuine distress call - but people manage to miss the obvious all the time - even on this forum.

I also mentioned the reported reception by Charles Miguel. On July 6 Miguel reported hearing “NRUI NRUI KHAQQ TWO EIGHT ONE NORTH HOWLAND CANNOT HOLD MUCH LONGER DRIFTING NORTHWEST WE ABOVE WATER MOTORS SINKING IN WATER.” In dismissing Mr. Miguel you said that “Parts of this alleged signal are identical to the phrasing in the signal “281 NORTH HOWLAND CALL KHAQQ BEYOND NORTH DONT HOLD WITH US MUCH LONGER ABOVE WATER SHUT OFF,” heard at Wailupe the previous day and widely reported in the press.

So, even if Thelma didn’t hear the March of Time broadcast, ‘can’t hold much longer’ was widely reported in the press at least one day before July 7, the day Thelma said she heard Earhart. Thelma could have heard or read the ‘cannot hold much longer’ news accounts prior to July 7, as you say Charles Miguel did. I don't see why you would abandon your own reasoning, Ric.

It's interesting to track the phrase "can't last [or hold on] much longer" in the reported messages.  Is there reason to think it is a phrase Earhart actually used or is it a phrase that propagated from one bogus report to another?   The earliest version occurs on the morning of July 5 when Ernest Henderson in Auburn, WA (Catalog entry #119) hears AE say "50 -128 - QQ - waterlogged - can't last much longer."  We have judged the report to be not credible, mostly because of the reference to "waterlogged" but it occurs to me that "128-QQ" could very easily be KHAQQ.   
About two hours later, Navy Radio Wailupe hears the famous 281 message (Catalog entry #125) that includes both "KHAQQ" and the phrase "don't hold with us much longer."  (The word "don't" is almost certainly "won't.")   We've judged the 281 message to be genuine and, given its proximity and similarity to #119 we may want to reconsider the credibility of Henderson's report.
The 281 message got lots of press and, after that, several reports such as Miguel's included some version of the phrase.

So yes, I think there is reason to believe Earhart used some version of the "can't last much longer" phrase but because it was reported as part of the 281 message it also became popular with hoaxers.  A version of the phrase in Lovelace's account, therefore, could have been said by Earhart or could be other reports influencing Lovelace's memory.  What tips the credibility scales in her favor is her reference to injuries.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2013, 01:06:49 PM by Ric Gillespie »
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Steve Lee

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #26 on: May 14, 2013, 04:08:20 PM »

Reading the thread I have to say I agree with Al's take on all this. I took a few hours off last week at work to deal with an issue at home and now this week I'm doing my time sheet and I can't remember which day it was! So, to be sure 50 years later what day you heard a radio broadcast seems a pretty incredible feat.

I agree with Ric about expectation bias. Thelma's husband thought she was mixed up, and he knew what kind of information they were getting in the household and as her husband he could judge Thelma better than we can today.

The Amelaipedia article about the March of Time also says that according to Frederick Hooven "There were excited reports from many places". It also says that Captain Friedell's report describes a listener in Hawaii who also confused the March of Time broadcast for a real emergency broadcast. Sounds a lot like the famous 'War of Worlds' broadcast also around that time that fooled a lot of people.

Also, those two psychics said Fred was injured and if they could come up with this story I don't see why Thelma couldn't. Also Nina Paxton  said Fred was injured, and Ric says that isn't credible  so that is another example of people reporting Fred injured when he wasn't. Since she said so many strange things, like that she heard a secret Hitler broadcast and that it was dark during daytime, that water was all around when the reef was dry, I don't think anything she said is credible (do you really need to tell people 'water all around' when you're on an Island?

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Ric Gillespie

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #27 on: May 14, 2013, 08:24:04 PM »

Reading the thread I have to say I agree with Al's take on all this.

Okay, so you and Al would but Lovelace in the "not credible" category.  How about Larremore and Klenck who also reported injuries? 
Do you feel they are credible?
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Tim Collins

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #28 on: May 15, 2013, 06:58:48 AM »

Is the audio to the March of Time program available anywhere? As an avid fan of radio drama, as well as avid follower of TIGHAR, I'd be interested to hear it myself.

While I am amused at the thought that some people at the time may have actually believed the War of the Worlds dramatization, I think the confusion that could stem from that particular March of Time broadcast would have been a more serious issue given its timing. Were there any ramifications for the MoT people because of it? 
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: AE & FN injured?
« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2013, 08:00:33 AM »

Is the audio to the March of Time program available anywhere? As an avid fan of radio drama, as well as avid follower of TIGHAR, I'd be interested to hear it myself.

The March of Time audio recording is copyrighted.  It was very difficult to get and we can only distribute our copy for research purposes - so we can only send it to TIGHAR members who have joined at the TIGHAResearcher level.  You recently renewed as an Associate Member.  If you upgrade your membership to TIGHAResearcher we can send you the audio CD of the entire March of Time program of July 8, 1937.


While I am amused at the thought that some people at the time may have actually believed the War of the Worlds dramatization, I think the confusion that could stem from that particular March of Time broadcast would have been a more serious issue given its timing. Were there any ramifications for the MoT people because of it?
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