Here’s where things stand.
We’re finishing up our analysis of the results of the Niku VII expedition. We should have the report ready for release soon. So far I can tell you that there are some really interesting targets out there that we didn’t know about and didn’t get to investigate. I think you can guess how I feel about that.
There are also new (and very cool) developments in the analysis of artifacts and materials from the Seven Site. We’re working on the reports/press releases now.
We are, of course, eager to get back to Niku but there are milestones and toll booths on the road to Niku VIII. I want the Forum to know what happened last year so that you all know why we’re proceeding the way we are. This is the first time I’ve talked about this publicly.
Our original plan was to do a hi-tech deep water search in the summer of 2013. In September 2011, at my request, the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Islands arranged for the State Dept. photo analysts to look at the Bevington Photo. In November 2011 they briefed me and said they agreed with Jeff Glickman’s assessment that the object in the photo appears to be the wreckage of Electra landing gear.
In January 2012, as a thank you, I invited the Assistant Secretary to be Guest of Honor at our planned Earhart Search 75 symposium in June. As an afterthought, I also mentioned the photo analysis results. In late February 2012 the Assistant Secretary called me in and made TIGHAR “an offer we couldn’t refuse.” He informed me that he had assurances of sponsorship and in-kind support from several major corporations adequate to cover the costs of a hi-tech deep water search. The Secretary of State herself would endorse our work and announce our deep water search at a special, high-profile press event in March. The catch was that we had to do the expedition asap, preferably in April. Throwing together such a complex operation that fast was out of the question, so we settled on July, the 75th anniversary of the disappearance.
In retrospect, a couple of things are clear. The State Dept. push to do the expedition in 2012 was because they knew that, regardless of the outcome of the November election, Secretary Clinton and her appointees wouldn’t be there in 2013. It also later became obvious that the State Dept.’s primary interest was not the expedition, the outcome of which was beyond anyone’s control. The pay-off for them was the positive publicity from the March press event, which was much more a sure thing. The event was a huge success but, after that, State was done. Lockheed Martin and FedEx came through as promised but the rest of State’s assurances of corporate sponsorships never materialized. We were on our own with commitments made, contracts signed, but only a fraction of the budget raised.
Over the next few months Tim Mellon and Discovery stepped forward with major contributions and public grassroots support was strong, but I was still frantically fund raising as KOK steamed south in July. In the end, we were able to raise most, but not all, of the $2,000,000 expedition budget. The first step on the road to Niku VIII is, therefore, to pay off the debt from Niku VII.
At the same time, we’re going to do Confidence Assessment of the many threads of evidence in this complex 25-years-and-counting investigation. This will be done as a series of questions such as:
• How confident are we that Earhart had enough fuel to reach Gardner Island?
• How confident are we that Earhart was sending radio distress calls in the days following her disappearance?
• How confident are we that the Bevington Object is wreckage from the Earhart Electra?
You get the idea. The point is to review and quantify the credibility of each pillar of support for the Niku Hypothesis. The “we” in all this is the TIGHAR Board of Directors because we’re the one who make the decisions, but recognizing that, despite our best efforts and intentions, we may be less than totally objective, we’re recruiting the help of unbiased outside experts. We’re lining up some really good people. We’ll let you know who they are.
We’ll also be asking for your Confidence Assessment for each question because, at the end of the day, it’s your opinion that really counts. Without the financial support of the community of people who care about solving the Earhart mystery, what we think doesn’t matter. We’re still putting together the mechanics of how the Confidence Assessment will work. Stay tuned for more details.
I’m telling you all this because we need to get serious about getting started down the road to Niku VIII and that means raising money. We have kept fund raising pitches off the Forum and I very much prefer it that way, as I’m sure you do, but I assume you’re all here because you find value here. Maybe it’s a lifelong passion for the Earhart mystery, maybe it’s intellectual stimulation, maybe it’s the satisfaction of participation in an epic quest, maybe it’s entertainment, or maybe it’s just an opportunity to rattle my chain. Whatever you get from this Forum, whether you’re one of the 892 registered Forum members or one of the untold thousands who just read the postings, you’re a powerful force and we need your help now.
Please go to the TIGHAR website. Use the DONATE button to make a contribution. There’s lots of great stuff in the TIGHAR Store. If you have an idea for something you’d like to see in the Store, tell me (Ric@tighar.org). If you’re interested in a corporate sponsorship with recognition on the TIGHAR website homepage, let’s talk.
The TIGHAR website uses PayPal. If you don’t like PayPal send us a check or phone us with your credit card info. We’re usually here during normal business hours (302-994-4410) and delighted to talk to you. (We're having some telephone adventures at the moment but they should be fixed by Tuesday.)
