Another example is the report by Dana Randolph #41500RH in which he states he heard Amelia at around 4:00 am Gardner time on July 4th, giving her location before it faded out. What I find interesting is that "This sequence was repeated an unknown number of times during a 25 minute period."
Brad
This reception in particular is interesting to me for other reasons. One, it was heard by multiple stations at essentially the same time - Dana Randolf in Rock Springs, Mrs. Crabb in Toronto, Pan AM in Ohau, and Pan Am in Midway. If you continue with the details in Brandenburgs analysis that you have linked, you will find the following:
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According to the local newspaper, Randolph heard a woman say “This is Amelia Earhart. Ship is on a reef south of the equator. Station KH9QQ” at about 0800 MST. The woman then began to give her location, but the signal faded out before it was given. This sequence was repeated an unknown number of times during a 25 minute period.
Source “First Radio Contact with Miss Earhart Made by Rock Springs boy,” Rock Springs Rocket, July 6-7, 1937, p.1; Finding Amelia, p. 142; MSG8.PDF, p. 368; and MSG9.PDF, p. 372.
Probability 0.016
Qual Factors A local Department of Commerce radio operator investigated and verified Randolph’s report, and found that the call sign heard was KHAQQ, and that the signal frequency was “near 16000” kHz, which is close to 15525 kHz, the 5th harmonic of 3105 kHz. It was plausible for Randolph to be tuning there, since 15525 kHz was near a shortwave broadcast band. The investigator also found that the signal included a statement – not reported by the newspaper – that the plane was “on a reef southeast of Howland Island.” The possibility of a hoax can be ruled out, given the investigation and the fact that the newspaper was published every other day, hence printed news of post-loss signals had not yet reached Rock Springs.
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So, not only did this 16 year old kid in Wyo hear her give multiple attempts at her location, but she also broadcast other relevant info "ship on reef south of Equator" and "on reef southeast of Howland Island".
What is interesting about this one is the "ship on reef" which could be interpreted to mean the aircraft, commonly called a ship in the 30's, or the Norwich City, literally a ship on the reef. South of equator, and southeast of Howland are both excellent descriptions if you don't have exact coordinates to give, your navigator has suffered a head injury or has otherwise gone bonkers, and that is all you know.
Same with the Betty notes, I find that there are quite a few oddities that in a vacuum she wouldn't have come up with, but the New York City getting repeated over and over could easily have been AE's attempt to give the best info she could on her location. Anyone looking up the Norwich City could have figured out where it ended up. There is logic to it in the context of Earhart that doesn't otherwise make sense.
Gary, isn't this exactly the kind of info you are arguing she would have broadcast?
So it would seem that there are multiple examples in the body of post loss signals that do exactly what you are saying didn't happen, and which you base your conclusion that the signals did not come from Nikumaroro? Are you now willing to reconsider possibility, especially in light of the radio DF bearings, one of which (Pan Am Mokapu Ohau bearing 213°) apparently was taken during the same reception as the one Dana Randolf heard? Think about it, you've got a radio reception essentially saying "Ship on reef southeast of Howland, south of equator" and a DF bearing that hits Gardner island from the same transmission. Where would you go look?
Malcolm says:
"I can't see them running ashore and exploring if the aircraft with a working radio is sitting on the reef."
I agree, they would not have strayed far, but they could not have remained in the aircraft during the day as the heat would have done them in. The intensity of the light, both direct and reflected, would have turned the Electra into an oven and without huge amounts of fresh water it would have been a very dangerous thing to try to attempt. Mark Smith, our camera / videographer on the last 3 expeditions, measured something like 3 times the ambient lumens on the reef flat compared to a normal sunny day in NYC area where he lives. Being out there on the reef flat is a near painful experience it is so bright, and that is with hats and polarized sunglasses. I don't think they went exploring far until after the Electra went over the edge, and the sound of the Colorado's airplanes faded away, and the realization that no one was coming sank in.
Which illustrates another aspect of the post loss radio signals. Most of them were logged when it was nighttime and at or near low tide at Niku. That does't mean that there weren't daytime transmissions that simply weren't heard for propagation reasons, but being out in the Electra during daytime or at high tide would have been very uncomfortable. The pattern makes sense.
Andrew