Evaluating the Niku hypothesis: conflicting strategies for testing hypotheses

[Malcolm McKay]

I DON'T THINK IN MALCOLM'S WORLD THEY CAN JUST ACCEPT THE "KNOWING" WITHOUT A LIITTLE BIT OF PROOF.

Yep - there is no substitute for clear irrefutable proof  :) Otherwise all we are writing is fiction.

[Malcolm McKay]

Richie,

maybe, maybe not.  It could have been a one off gift or the only one of a few that got dropped.  Sure Malcolm will tell you that in a dig they sometimes only come up with one item but that dosn't mean that there wern't more.

You do have a point though :)

It happens, but there are usually clear indications if one is to go so far as to assign it provenance to a person or event. So far these have been noticeably lacking at Nikumaroro in regard to Earhart or Noonan.

[Ric Gillespie]

IF AND WHEN TIGHAR CAN SAY: "SHE WAS HERE", THE WHOLE WORLD WILL BELIEVE US BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE PROOF, NOT A WHOLE BUNCH OF HUNCHES.

It's not up to TIGHAR to say "She was here."  All we can do is present what we have found.  Everyone has his or her own threshold of belief.  Many are already there. Some will never be there no matter what we find.

[Tom Swearengen]

Hey Ric----
Give us a smiley if NIKU VII found something of interest.
Tom
Come on----that doesnt violate anything, its a smiley

[richie conroy]

RICHIE,
   I KNOW HOW YOU CAN SHUT MALCOLM UP !
AFTER 23 YEARS OF TRYING AND MANY EXPEDATIONS TO GARNER AND 1,000'S OF HOURS OF RESEARCH, SHOW MALCOLM JUST ONE ITEM OF PROOF THAT AMELIA WAS THERE. NOT A LOT OF 'COULD HAVES, OR MIGHT HAVES', JUST ONE ITEM OF PROOF.  AFTER 23 YEARS I WOULD THINK THAT MAYBE SOME PEOPLE ARE RETHINKING PREVIOUS IDEAS.  STILL, OTHERS WILL CONINUE ON FOR ANOTHER 23 YEARS BELIEVING SUCCESS IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER BECAUSE THEY JUST KNOW IN THEIR HEART THAT SHE HAD TO BE THERE.  I DON'T THINK IN MALCOLM'S WORLD THEY CAN JUST ACCEPT THE "KNOWING" WITHOUT A LIITTLE BIT OF PROOF.
   THE CLAMS, THE SEXTEANT BOX, THE BONES, AND MANY, MANY OTHER THINGS ARE INTERESTING, VERY INTERESTING, BUT NOT REMOTELY CLOSE TO PROOF, AT LEAST NOT IN THE SCIENTIFIC WORLD.    IF AND WHEN TIGHAR CAN SAY: "SHE WAS HERE", THE WHOLE WORLD WILL BELIEVE US BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE PROOF, NOT A WHOLE BUNCH OF HUNCHES.

John

What makes you think i want to SHUT Malcolm up ?

Ain't that what the ignore button is for ?

I just like to do what we Brits call PASSING THE TIME AWAY  ;)

[Malcolm McKay]

It's not up to TIGHAR to say "She was here."  All we can do is present what we have found.  Everyone has his or her own threshold of belief.  Many are already there. Some will never be there no matter what we find.

Well Ric, a little undeniable provenance is preferable to me.

[Ric Gillespie]

Well Ric, a little undeniable provenance is preferable to me.

As it is to all of us.  If we had undeniable provenance we'd be popping the champagne corks - but we don't and we aren't.  We're on the trail, puzzling out the paw prints, trying to track the beast to its lair.  You're welcome to sit at home and call us fools. Perhaps we are.  Time will tell.

[Malcolm McKay]

Well Ric, a little undeniable provenance is preferable to me.

As it is to all of us.  If we had undeniable provenance we'd be popping the champagne corks - but we don't and we aren't.  We're on the trail, puzzling out the paw prints, trying to track the beast to its lair.  You're welcome to sit at home and call us fools. Perhaps we are.  Time will tell.

I didn't call anyone a fool.

[Ric Gillespie]

I didn't call anyone a fool.

Thanks for clearing that up. 

[Lauren Palmer]

All we can do is enjoy playing the odds - Odds are some of the items are of a Western woman and of a pre-WWII plane, and if found near each other, could be from the same event whatever that was ......... Whoever has the time, desire, and money to investigate - go for it!  Wish I did!  I think the odds are Niku's the place Amelia and Fred landed for the last time, or the landing-site of some other pre-WWII unknown aviatrix (and what are the odds of that?)
--Lauren

[Ric Gillespie]

you are speaking of the 'stuff' that drives us to seek - that's the gas in the tank for many of us.

"But now that researchers understand dopamine and the SEEKING system better, the way we think abut rewards is changing.  What's rewarding about rewards isn't so much the reward item itself, but the time you spend looking forward to it.  In some ways, chasing after things is more fun than actually getting them."

Animals Make Us Human
Temple Grandin
page 104

[Gloria Walker Burger]

Even if it is a freckle-cream jar, that doesn't rule out a Coastie having it to deal with freckles or some other skin condition

I'll try to find it, but I read somewhere that db freckle cream also was good for other skin blemishes, like pimples.

Just sayin'.
Gloria

[Gloria Walker Burger]

Quote from: john a delsing on June 27, 2012

I since have found out that you can't run a LOP of 337 from the Howland vicinity and hit Gardner, at least mot at that time of day they were there.

Can someone explain this to me please?
Gloria

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

Quote from: john a delsing on June 27, 2012

I since have found out that you can't run a LOP of 337 from the Howland vicinity and hit Gardner, at least mot at that time of day they were there.

Can someone explain this to me please?
Gloria

You probably need to read some of the threads about the "line of position" (LOP) in the Celestial Navigation board.

[Bob Lanz]

Quote from: john a delsing on June 27, 2012

I since have found out that you can't run a LOP of 337 from the Howland vicinity and hit Gardner, at least mot at that time of day they were there.

Can someone explain this to me please?
Gloria

Gloria, if you go to the Celestial choir Topic, you will get the answer to your question and a lot more.