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Author Topic: Evaluating the Niku hypothesis: conflicting strategies for testing hypotheses  (Read 67656 times)

richie conroy

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John

So we have to prove to Malcolm that Amelia landed at Gardner with smokeing gun evidence

But it's ok for him to dismiss the Gardner hypothesis without evidence, just cos he as done archaeology

if he shows smoking gun evidence, That it was Bert's sextant box an freckle ointment, and not Ernie's on Gardner he has my full Attention  :)   
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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So we have to prove to Malcolm that Amelia landed at Gardner with smoking gun evidence

But it's ok for him to dismiss the Gardner hypothesis without evidence, just cos he as done archaeology

The burden of proof does not rest equally on those for and against the Niku Hypothesis.

The person who advances an idea has the burden of proof.  Those who oppose the idea only have to show that the proponents have not met the burden of proof in order to win the debate.

The Niku Hypothesis has to be backed up by evidence.  The declaration that the Niku Hypothesis has not been substantiated only requires inspection of the evidence adduced in its favor by the proponents; it does not require the same kind of proof.

What I find odd about Malcolm is his credulity about the New Britain hypothesis.  He seems to have lost his grip on what is and is not evidence when it comes to the legend of the engine tag.  In that case, he does bear the burden of proof, and those of us who reject his hypothesis get to sit in the cat bird seat singing, "Not proven, not proven, not anywhere nearly proven."   ::)
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C.W. Herndon

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BRAVO Marty.  ;)
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Malcolm McKay

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What I find odd about Malcolm is his credulity about the New Britain hypothesis.  He seems to have lost his grip on what is and is not evidence when it comes to the legend of the engine tag.  In that case, he does bear the burden of proof, and those of us who reject his hypothesis get to sit in the cat bird seat singing, "Not proven, not proven, not anywhere nearly proven."   ::)

Credulity Marty? Hmmm...... Let me see.

How about you tell us all exactly what TIGHAR has found and recovered in its existence that is demonstrably part of a historically important aircraft. I know there's the TBD and the P38 they are interested in but have TIGHAR actually recovered them in the sense of removing them, preserving them and actually creating a permanent display for them which shows to the public why they are so historically important, as distinct from the many other private organizations and public museums in the world which have recovered, restored or preserved historically important aircraft.

I know TIGHAR is always talking things up to get funding but have they actually ever completed a project. Let me see besides the two I just mentioned there's L'Oiseau Blanc and of course the headline grabbing Earhart Electra but what else is there?

Now if we are talking credulity here you might care to explain your belief in TIGHAR in comparison with their current track record. Personally I just think that all avenues regarding the recovery of the  Electra should be investigated. So far Nikumaroro has been visited and revisited and TIGHAR have produced nothing that constitutes its own vaunted "smoking gun".

Now I know Marty that you will now set about in true philosopher fashion to tell me that black is white and white is black, but you and I both know that in the end all your reply will be is more word games. So now that that approach for you is dismissed before you even start just answer the question  - care to explain your belief in TIGHAR in comparison with their current track record. Should be easy for you after all you are not in the least credulous are you?   
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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How about you tell us all exactly what TIGHAR has found and recovered in its existence that is demonstrably part of a historically important aircraft. I know there's the TBD and the P38 they are interested in but have TIGHAR actually recovered them in the sense of removing them, preserving them and actually creating a permanent display for them which shows to the public why they are so historically important, as distinct from the many other private organizations and public museums in the world which have recovered, restored or preserved historically important aircraft.

I know TIGHAR is always talking things up to get funding but have they actually ever completed a project. Let me see besides the two I just mentioned there's L'Oiseau Blanc and of course the headline grabbing Earhart Electra but what else is there?

There are many stages in historic aircraft recovery.  TIGHAR has participated in many different stages, both as an independent agency and as a sub-contractor for others.

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Now if we are talking credulity here you might care to explain your belief in TIGHAR in comparison with their current track record.

I have arrived at my confidence in TIGHAR's integrity in the same way I have come to trust other people in my life.  The judgment is a blend of several lines of thought.  I like the kind of work they do; I like the way they report their results, including failures and reconsiderations; I like the way that they have promoted standards for research and preservation.  I think I've gotten good returns on my investment of time and money in the organization.

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Personally I just think that all avenues regarding the recovery of the  Electra should be investigated. So far Nikumaroro has been visited and revisited and TIGHAR have produced nothing that constitutes its own vaunted "smoking gun".

Yes, we've noticed that and conceded that more than once, Malcolm.  At what point will you accept the fact that we're aware of this circumstance?

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Now I know Marty that you will now set about in true philosopher fashion to tell me that black is white and white is black,

Your understanding of my philosophy and your prediction of my future behavior is false.  I am a metaphysical realist, not a nominalist.

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... but you and I both know that in the end all your reply will be is more word games.

I believe that words have meanings and that learning how to make distinctions between things and terms is well worthwhile.  I don't mind you making claims about what you know.  When it comes to me, it's my job, not yours, to make my own knowledge claims.

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So now that that approach for you is dismissed before you even start just answer the question ...

Dismissed by whom?  I don't dismiss my philosophy.  The fact that you possess a different set of beliefs about reality is not a cause of angst for me.  I've sort of noticed already that your beliefs and mine are not congruent.

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- care to explain your belief in TIGHAR in comparison with their current track record. Should be easy for you after all you are not in the least credulous are you?

I am willing to believe things under certain conditions.

As I've indicated before, I believe that it is impossible for us to know things without a prior act of faith in our senses and our powers of reasoning. 

I don't believe everything I hear.

I don't believe everything I read.

I think about what I believe.

I strive to understand the conditions of the possibility of thought--in Lonergan's terms, to think about thinking, to understand understanding, to judge judgment, and evaluate values.  I'm satisfied that this has given me a standpoint that is not self-referentially inconsistent.  It is a stable position from which to evaluate other positions in philosophy.
LTM,

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Malcolm McKay

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There are many stages in historic aircraft recovery.  TIGHAR has participated in many different stages, both as an independent agency and as a sub-contractor for others.

In other words you can't name any - and I'm credulous?
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Randy Conrad

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As I sit here waiting on Pat's daily report log, I've been reading up on this particular topic and found out like Monty, that some of you seem to have thrown in the towel on this project! Now, granted Malcom you are right in a sense that not all artifacts that have been found are related to Fred/Amelia. We all know that and most rocket scientists will agree with you on this matter. As most of you read this, and most of you who were in DC for the conference will agree that some of the aritifacts shown are not conclusive with Amelia/Fred. Fine example would be the broken plate  and other fine component materials. At the same time, with aritfacts found...we have to draw a timeline picture on what is to believe from the Electra and Fred/Amelia. No questions asked. The freckle cream jar in my eyes is a smoking gun. A jar made from western descent, found in the middle of the pacific on a desolate reef, among fish bones, and cosmetics, and etc. A jar that according to the Hazel Atlas Company was made before 1936, because of its clear state. Therefore, if this is the case...then anything after 1936 and is of a milk glass content is not liable. Therefore, the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred. Therefore, all it takes is "one" artifact to make a case. Another thing to look at based on timeline is the number of women who were actually on Gardner/Niku from the time the Norwich City ran ashore till the Loran Station shut down. If we look at this account, we will notice that there weren't that many women on Niku (if any) that can actually say they had a bottle of Freckle Cream with them. At the same time, we also have to use the theory based upon timeline, that the women islanders would have never come in contact with the freckle cream because of its own culture. Finally, the Loran Station...which is located on one side of the island and away from the Seventh site most likely never housed women of the military. Now help me out on this...I too could be wrong...but in most eyes I'm probably right! Anyway, certain artifacts found have a certain priority than others, because of their timeline value!!! Another thing to look at is the recent discovery of the landing gear on the Bevington photo. Now granted, that the landing gear is based upon a picture...still makes it a liable valuable piece of the puzzle. If the landing gear continues to show readers that indeed it is that of Lockheed Electra 10E, then we have to take evidential facts, without hardcore artifacts at hand,to indicate its credibility. If such is the case, then this particular part of the timeline needs to be flagged as possible evidence. Anyway, not sure if I'm making sense to some of you, but wanted to demonstrate that there are certain little key items that do make a big difference is a search survey of Niku!!! This beings one of them. Anyway, hope that we learn more in the days ahead and we pray that they are able to find anything. Thanks!!!!
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Mark Pearce

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 "...the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred. .... At the same time, we also have to use the theory based upon timeline, that the women islanders would have never come in contact with the freckle cream because of its own culture."


Randy,
 
Could you please explain in more detail why you believe women islanders "...would never have come in contact..." with freckle cream-  on account of "culture"? 

Seems to me the following info provides clear evidence women in the Pacific can also be concerned with their freckles.

“…Women on the islands of South Pacific know papaya juice is also efficient in removing skin blemishes and lightening freckles. You only need to squeeze the juice straight from papaya and then run it onto your skin. An enzyme in juice also has the power to remove dead surface cells. Result is excellently smooth and soft skin...”

http://www.treatment7.com/facial/treatment-for-freckles.html

http://www.philippinesplus.com/2011/08/04/warning-about-skin-whitening-products-in-the-philippines/

 
 


« Last Edit: July 26, 2012, 08:30:50 AM by Mark Pearce »
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john a delsing

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The freckle cream jar in my eyes is a smoking gun. A jar made from western descent, found in the middle of the pacific on a desolate reef, among fish bones, and cosmetics, and etc. A jar that according to the Hazel Atlas Company was made before 1936, because of its clear state. Therefore, if this is the case...then anything after 1936 and is of a milk glass content is not liable. Therefore, the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred. Therefore, all it takes is "one" artifact to make a case.

Randy,   
   Congratulations on solving the Earhart mystery. Have you thought about notifying Ric and friends out on the KOK that they are wasting their time, and our money as you have determined this ‘jar’ belongs to Amelia. Have you notified any scientific organizations of your findings? Also what landing gear are you referring too?
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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In other words you can't name any - and I'm credulous?

There's room for two believers in the world.

It's not either/or.

I respect TIGHAR's work on its projects.

I trust the people who run the organization.

I enjoy working with them.

I like what they're doing.

I've spent a lot of time and money on their projects.

I know that this is an act of faith, i.e., an acceptance of propositions that have not and possibly cannot be demonstrated from self-evident principles or facts introduced as evidence.  You may have noticed in various posts I've made that I think this is how our minds work.  We have to believe in order to make progress in understanding.

Even though I am a believer, I don't believe everything I read or hear.  I do not have any sympathy for the legend of the engine tag, which you seem to think is an established fact.  I believe that the accounts of the signal strength of AE's transmissions increasing on the morning of July 2, 1937, put her in the vicinity of Howland Island, too far away from New Britain for her to get there.  You seem to have a contrary belief.
LTM,

           Marty
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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... The freckle cream jar in my eyes is a smoking gun. A jar made from western descent, found in the middle of the pacific on a desolate reef, among fish bones, and cosmetics, and etc. A jar that according to the Hazel Atlas Company was made before 1936, because of its clear state. Therefore, if this is the case...then anything after 1936 and is of a milk glass content is not liable. Therefore, the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred.

I do not think the jar has been conclusively shown to be a freckle-cream jar.

Even if that could be done, I don't think that the sole source imaginable is AE or FN.

I agree that the date is consistent with it being from the Electra.  That is very attractive.  It probably rules out the Coasties, though there is no reason why one of them couldn't have had a ten-year-old jar left over from some project or other.

It's an interesting find, but, for me, definitely not the kind of thing that I would call a smoking gun.
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           Marty
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richie conroy

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For me the smoking gun was the sextant box

But for others there is no smoking gun, like Malcolm has said some were else, Even if they find plane wreckage on reef face of niku, Unless they can clarify it with serial numbers it's just another lost ww1/ww2 aircraft unaccounted for, Which if that's how he view's it so be it.

I believe Tighar has provided for free, In favor / and against, Enough evidence to suggest Amelia and Fred were at Niku
not concrete proof but compared to all the other hypothesis out there, Then each to there own init  :)
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Thom Boughton

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....I agree that the date is consistent with it being from the Electra.  That is very attractive.  It probably rules out the Coasties, though there is no reason why one of them couldn't have had a ten-year-old jar left over from some project or other......




Marty, Im not arguing the point.  (Rather agree with it, actually.) 


Clearly not a smoking gun....howver I am curious as to what other purposes your standard run-of-the-mill freckle cream might have?




tb


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richie conroy

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Richie,
   I think you have the cart in front of the horse. It is your job, and my job to prove Amelia landed at gardner, not the other way around. I don't think Malcolm can prove to you that there isn't men on the other side of the moon either. I think you should try listening to him, you might just learn some things. He does have alot to offer. And so do you richie.

I think you will find it's Tighar's job to i.e us all, to prove that they landed at Gardner, And i think Tighar has give a very good account of themselves in proving it.

If Malcolm hadn't waffled on about the new Britain hypothesis deserves more credit, Based on a Tag that was an engine number, Which they don't even have to back the story,

 Then i find it unfair that he disqualify's every think Tighar has put forward, When he believe's the say so of some army fella

New Britain V Gardner Island

We'll see who is right or wrong in due time init  ;)   
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Randy Conrad

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Boy...it's a good thing Niku is made of Coral...if not you'd all have me buried up to my neck in the sand!!! Anyway, not implying that this particular jar is the "real" jar of Amelia's But, what I'm trying to say is that all other possibilites don't even touch this theory. Basing this on TIMELINE only!!! As for the islanders...now here me out on this...going off on a picture that I believe Tom King had posted in one of his blogs or on the website at one time. but, it showed a bunch of islanders gathered. Now, if someone is reading this I need some guidance on this matter...cause first of all I'm not a lady, and second of all I dont do cosmetics. However, I do recall speaking with my parents about a black family that once lived near my folks. My dad asked him one time why they never sunburned. The man's reply was because of their pigmentation of skin color. If this is true, then if the islanders were of dark skin, mixed race descent, or kibrati, or whatever origin, and they never left the island to come to America...then how would they have come in contact with it and second why would they use it anyway. Need some help in this area!!! I've never heard in my lifetime of someone of mixed race descent using freckle cream to cover up freckles. So that is where I'm coming up with this theory. That is why I made the comments I did. Also, for the person wanting to know bout the landing gear, you need to see the photo on the website in regards to this matter. The landing gear appears to be that of Amelia's Lockheed Electra. You'll have to see pictures from the Earhart 75 Search Symposium to draw your own conclusion!!!
« Last Edit: July 26, 2012, 10:44:50 PM by Randy Conrad »
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