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Author Topic: Evaluating the Niku hypothesis: conflicting strategies for testing hypotheses  (Read 93021 times)

Randy Conrad

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As I sit here waiting on Pat's daily report log, I've been reading up on this particular topic and found out like Monty, that some of you seem to have thrown in the towel on this project! Now, granted Malcom you are right in a sense that not all artifacts that have been found are related to Fred/Amelia. We all know that and most rocket scientists will agree with you on this matter. As most of you read this, and most of you who were in DC for the conference will agree that some of the aritifacts shown are not conclusive with Amelia/Fred. Fine example would be the broken plate  and other fine component materials. At the same time, with aritfacts found...we have to draw a timeline picture on what is to believe from the Electra and Fred/Amelia. No questions asked. The freckle cream jar in my eyes is a smoking gun. A jar made from western descent, found in the middle of the pacific on a desolate reef, among fish bones, and cosmetics, and etc. A jar that according to the Hazel Atlas Company was made before 1936, because of its clear state. Therefore, if this is the case...then anything after 1936 and is of a milk glass content is not liable. Therefore, the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred. Therefore, all it takes is "one" artifact to make a case. Another thing to look at based on timeline is the number of women who were actually on Gardner/Niku from the time the Norwich City ran ashore till the Loran Station shut down. If we look at this account, we will notice that there weren't that many women on Niku (if any) that can actually say they had a bottle of Freckle Cream with them. At the same time, we also have to use the theory based upon timeline, that the women islanders would have never come in contact with the freckle cream because of its own culture. Finally, the Loran Station...which is located on one side of the island and away from the Seventh site most likely never housed women of the military. Now help me out on this...I too could be wrong...but in most eyes I'm probably right! Anyway, certain artifacts found have a certain priority than others, because of their timeline value!!! Another thing to look at is the recent discovery of the landing gear on the Bevington photo. Now granted, that the landing gear is based upon a picture...still makes it a liable valuable piece of the puzzle. If the landing gear continues to show readers that indeed it is that of Lockheed Electra 10E, then we have to take evidential facts, without hardcore artifacts at hand,to indicate its credibility. If such is the case, then this particular part of the timeline needs to be flagged as possible evidence. Anyway, not sure if I'm making sense to some of you, but wanted to demonstrate that there are certain little key items that do make a big difference is a search survey of Niku!!! This beings one of them. Anyway, hope that we learn more in the days ahead and we pray that they are able to find anything. Thanks!!!!
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Mark Pearce

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 "...the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred. .... At the same time, we also have to use the theory based upon timeline, that the women islanders would have never come in contact with the freckle cream because of its own culture."


Randy,
 
Could you please explain in more detail why you believe women islanders "...would never have come in contact..." with freckle cream-  on account of "culture"? 

Seems to me the following info provides clear evidence women in the Pacific can also be concerned with their freckles.

“…Women on the islands of South Pacific know papaya juice is also efficient in removing skin blemishes and lightening freckles. You only need to squeeze the juice straight from papaya and then run it onto your skin. An enzyme in juice also has the power to remove dead surface cells. Result is excellently smooth and soft skin...”

http://www.treatment7.com/facial/treatment-for-freckles.html

http://www.philippinesplus.com/2011/08/04/warning-about-skin-whitening-products-in-the-philippines/

 
 


« Last Edit: July 26, 2012, 08:30:50 AM by Mark Pearce »
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john a delsing

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The freckle cream jar in my eyes is a smoking gun. A jar made from western descent, found in the middle of the pacific on a desolate reef, among fish bones, and cosmetics, and etc. A jar that according to the Hazel Atlas Company was made before 1936, because of its clear state. Therefore, if this is the case...then anything after 1936 and is of a milk glass content is not liable. Therefore, the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred. Therefore, all it takes is "one" artifact to make a case.

Randy,   
   Congratulations on solving the Earhart mystery. Have you thought about notifying Ric and friends out on the KOK that they are wasting their time, and our money as you have determined this ‘jar’ belongs to Amelia. Have you notified any scientific organizations of your findings? Also what landing gear are you referring too?
The Earth is Full
 
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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In other words you can't name any - and I'm credulous?

There's room for two believers in the world.

It's not either/or.

I respect TIGHAR's work on its projects.

I trust the people who run the organization.

I enjoy working with them.

I like what they're doing.

I've spent a lot of time and money on their projects.

I know that this is an act of faith, i.e., an acceptance of propositions that have not and possibly cannot be demonstrated from self-evident principles or facts introduced as evidence.  You may have noticed in various posts I've made that I think this is how our minds work.  We have to believe in order to make progress in understanding.

Even though I am a believer, I don't believe everything I read or hear.  I do not have any sympathy for the legend of the engine tag, which you seem to think is an established fact.  I believe that the accounts of the signal strength of AE's transmissions increasing on the morning of July 2, 1937, put her in the vicinity of Howland Island, too far away from New Britain for her to get there.  You seem to have a contrary belief.
LTM,

           Marty
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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... The freckle cream jar in my eyes is a smoking gun. A jar made from western descent, found in the middle of the pacific on a desolate reef, among fish bones, and cosmetics, and etc. A jar that according to the Hazel Atlas Company was made before 1936, because of its clear state. Therefore, if this is the case...then anything after 1936 and is of a milk glass content is not liable. Therefore, the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred.

I do not think the jar has been conclusively shown to be a freckle-cream jar.

Even if that could be done, I don't think that the sole source imaginable is AE or FN.

I agree that the date is consistent with it being from the Electra.  That is very attractive.  It probably rules out the Coasties, though there is no reason why one of them couldn't have had a ten-year-old jar left over from some project or other.

It's an interesting find, but, for me, definitely not the kind of thing that I would call a smoking gun.
LTM,

           Marty
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richie conroy

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For me the smoking gun was the sextant box

But for others there is no smoking gun, like Malcolm has said some were else, Even if they find plane wreckage on reef face of niku, Unless they can clarify it with serial numbers it's just another lost ww1/ww2 aircraft unaccounted for, Which if that's how he view's it so be it.

I believe Tighar has provided for free, In favor / and against, Enough evidence to suggest Amelia and Fred were at Niku
not concrete proof but compared to all the other hypothesis out there, Then each to there own init  :)
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Thom Boughton

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....I agree that the date is consistent with it being from the Electra.  That is very attractive.  It probably rules out the Coasties, though there is no reason why one of them couldn't have had a ten-year-old jar left over from some project or other......




Marty, Im not arguing the point.  (Rather agree with it, actually.) 


Clearly not a smoking gun....howver I am curious as to what other purposes your standard run-of-the-mill freckle cream might have?




tb


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richie conroy

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Richie,
   I think you have the cart in front of the horse. It is your job, and my job to prove Amelia landed at gardner, not the other way around. I don't think Malcolm can prove to you that there isn't men on the other side of the moon either. I think you should try listening to him, you might just learn some things. He does have alot to offer. And so do you richie.

I think you will find it's Tighar's job to i.e us all, to prove that they landed at Gardner, And i think Tighar has give a very good account of themselves in proving it.

If Malcolm hadn't waffled on about the new Britain hypothesis deserves more credit, Based on a Tag that was an engine number, Which they don't even have to back the story,

 Then i find it unfair that he disqualify's every think Tighar has put forward, When he believe's the say so of some army fella

New Britain V Gardner Island

We'll see who is right or wrong in due time init  ;)   
We are an echo of the past


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Randy Conrad

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Boy...it's a good thing Niku is made of Coral...if not you'd all have me buried up to my neck in the sand!!! Anyway, not implying that this particular jar is the "real" jar of Amelia's But, what I'm trying to say is that all other possibilites don't even touch this theory. Basing this on TIMELINE only!!! As for the islanders...now here me out on this...going off on a picture that I believe Tom King had posted in one of his blogs or on the website at one time. but, it showed a bunch of islanders gathered. Now, if someone is reading this I need some guidance on this matter...cause first of all I'm not a lady, and second of all I dont do cosmetics. However, I do recall speaking with my parents about a black family that once lived near my folks. My dad asked him one time why they never sunburned. The man's reply was because of their pigmentation of skin color. If this is true, then if the islanders were of dark skin, mixed race descent, or kibrati, or whatever origin, and they never left the island to come to America...then how would they have come in contact with it and second why would they use it anyway. Need some help in this area!!! I've never heard in my lifetime of someone of mixed race descent using freckle cream to cover up freckles. So that is where I'm coming up with this theory. That is why I made the comments I did. Also, for the person wanting to know bout the landing gear, you need to see the photo on the website in regards to this matter. The landing gear appears to be that of Amelia's Lockheed Electra. You'll have to see pictures from the Earhart 75 Search Symposium to draw your own conclusion!!!
« Last Edit: July 26, 2012, 10:44:50 PM by Randy Conrad »
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Malcolm McKay

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Boy...it's a good thing Niku is made of Coral...if not you'd all have me buried up to my neck in the sand!!! Anyway, not implying that this particular jar is the "real" jar of Amelia's But, what I'm trying to say is that all other possibilites don't even touch this theory. Basing this on TIMELINE only!!!

Well for what it's worth, I do not think the freckle cream jar is a "smoking gun" either, simply because in the 30s and 40s, as I remember from my childhood, container designs of all types had relatively long production spans.

None of the items found are "smoking guns", what needs to be found as I have continually pointed out is some part of the Electra as that or, if the miraculous happened, and some more of that skeleton turned up or another one was located, would then enable people to have some solid ground for any arguments that one or two of the stray finds may have possible relations with Earhart. So far that wreckage and that skeletal material has eluded the search. I leave the ramifications of that last sentence to others.

In any case David Billings is off to East New Britain again soon and we wait and see what he will turn up. Nice chap David - no where near as sensitive about honest doubt expressed towards his hypothesis.   
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Malcolm McKay

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If Malcolm hadn't waffled on about the new Britain hypothesis deserves more credit, Based on a Tag that was an engine number, Which they don't even have to back the story,

 Then i find it unfair that he disqualify's every think Tighar has put forward, When he believe's the say so of some army fella

New Britain V Gardner Island

We'll see who is right or wrong in due time init  ;)

Indeed we will Richie and as far as I can see both hypotheses plus "ditched and sank" have equal odds of being correct. However I wouldn't write off a landing in the Gilberts somewhere which, the later Japanese occupation in WW2 and Gilbertese being forced labor transferred to other islands, may explain the rumours coming out of Saipan. The Pacific was a very complicated place in WW2.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2012, 04:03:37 AM by Malcolm McKay »
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Clearly not a smoking gun....howver I am curious as to what other purposes your standard run-of-the-mill freckle cream might have?

We don't know for certain that it is a freckle-cream jar.  The great problem is that all freckle-cream jars found so far are milk glass, not transparent.

If it was a freckle-cream jar, some Coastie might have taken it along to deal with a skin condition (freckles or otherwise).

If it was a freckle-cream jar, it may have been repurposed to store some other skin-care ointment or lotion.  We have become a throwaway society, but I suspect that some people in the 1930s may have had the habit of hanging on to useful containers rather than discarding them immediately (I have about two shelves of "useful containers" in my workshop--the fact that there are so many, and that they are all empty, may be evidence that they are not as "useful" as I think they are).

The jar can't tell us who owned it, how it traveled to the island, or how it ended up in fragments at the Seven Site, some of which fragments may or may not have been used as cutting tools. 

I just don't think we can put too much weight on it at present.  If someone comes up with a photo of AE holding the jar and explaining why it traveled around the world with her, that would help.   :)
LTM,

           Marty
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Mark Pearce

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Clearly not a smoking gun....however I am curious as to what other purposes your standard run-of-the-mill freckle cream might have?

We don't know for certain that it is a freckle-cream jar
If it was a freckle-cream jar, some Coastie might have taken it along to deal with a skin condition (freckles or otherwise).
 

Marty, we are definitely on the same page here.  Ordinary sunburn is the best, most logical, choice for another skin condition Coasties and other visitors to the island had to deal with while based there.  A bit of poking around on the web shows freckle cream was often marketed to both men and women as a sort of stand-in for sun tan lotion way back when.  This ‘notion’ that freckle cream is a “gender specific” item just doesn’t hold up.

Same logic applies in the case of the bottle believed to be a Campana Italian Balm container.  The company did not market or pitch it exclusively to women as claimed here-
 
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/Bulletins/62_LotionBottle/62_LotionBottle.htm

“…Perhaps the most interesting finding of all is that Campana Italian Balm, and hand lotions in general at the time, were marketed solely to women.”

That’s just not the case.  Campana Italian Balm was also marketed - to both men and women- as a hand lotion and as a remedy for sunburn.  The Wiki article on C.I.Balm includes this line- [a bit of an exaggeration I know… but we see that from time to time. :)

"…Campana Balm was carried by every U.S. soldier and serviceman to prevent or heal burns.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Campana_Company
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john a delsing

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As I sit here waiting on Pat's daily report log, I've been reading up on this particular topic and found out like Monty, that some of you seem to have thrown in the towel on this project! Now, granted Malcom you are right in a sense that not all artifacts that have been found are related to Fred/Amelia. We all know that and most rocket scientists will agree with you on this matter. As most of you read this, and most of you who were in DC for the conference will agree that some of the aritifacts shown are not conclusive with Amelia/Fred. Fine example would be the broken plate  and other fine component materials. At the same time, with aritfacts found...we have to draw a timeline picture on what is to believe from the Electra and Fred/Amelia. No questions asked. The freckle cream jar in my eyes is a smoking gun. A jar made from western descent, found in the middle of the pacific on a desolate reef, among fish bones, and cosmetics, and etc. A jar that according to the Hazel Atlas Company was made before 1936, because of its clear state. Therefore, if this is the case...then anything after 1936 and is of a milk glass content is not liable. Therefore, the jar that was found has to stand as a conclusive artifact of Amelia/Fred. Therefore, all it takes is "one" artifact to make a case. Another thing to look at based on timeline is the number of women who were actually on Gardner/Niku from the time the Norwich City ran ashore till the Loran Station shut down. If we look at this account, we will notice that there weren't that many women on Niku (if any) that can actually say they had a bottle of Freckle Cream with them. At the same time, we also have to use the theory based upon timeline, that the women islanders would have never come in contact with the freckle cream because of its own culture. Finally, the Loran Station...which is located on one side of the island and away from the Seventh site most likely never housed women of the military. Now help me out on this...I too could be wrong...but in most eyes I'm probably right! Anyway, certain artifacts found have a certain priority than others, because of their timeline value!!! Another thing to look at is the recent discovery of the landing gear on the Bevington photo. Now granted, that the landing gear is based upon a picture...still makes it a liable valuable piece of the puzzle. If the landing gear continues to show readers that indeed it is that of Lockheed Electra 10E, then we have to take evidential facts, without hardcore artifacts at hand,to indicate its credibility. If such is the case, then this particular part of the timeline needs to be flagged as possible evidence. Anyway, not sure if I'm making sense to some of you, but wanted to demonstrate that there are certain little key items that do make a big difference is a search survey of Niku!!! This beings one of them. Anyway, hope that we learn more in the days ahead and we pray that they are able to find anything. Thanks!!!!
      Randy,
    You may want to think that is a picture of a landing gear, others may think it is a picture of some driftwood, and still others guess it is something else. I have not heard any respected member of TIGHAR declare it to be amelias landing gear.....
The Earth is Full
 
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Malcolm McKay

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Another thing to look at is the recent discovery of the landing gear on the Bevington photo. Now granted, that the landing gear is based upon a picture...still makes it a liable valuable piece of the puzzle. If the landing gear continues to show readers that indeed it is that of Lockheed Electra 10E, then we have to take evidential facts, without hardcore artifacts at hand,to indicate its credibility. If such is the case, then this particular part of the timeline needs to be flagged as possible evidence. Anyway, not sure if I'm making sense to some of you, but wanted to demonstrate that there are certain little key items that do make a big difference is a search survey of Niku!!! This beings one of them. Anyway, hope that we learn more in the days ahead and we pray that they are able to find anything. Thanks!!!!
      Randy,
    You may want to think that is a picture of a landing gear, others may think it is a picture of some driftwood, and still others guess it is something else. I have not heard any respected member of TIGHAR declare it to be amelias landing gear.....

John you are correct in that establishing a terminus post quem and a terminus ante quem for artifacts found at sites is important to establish their relevance. Obviously if the skeleton was found clutching a 1938 dime then clearly it couldn't be one of the pair but if it was found clutching a 1935 dime it could be. So it is with manufactured articles like the freckle cream jar - but we must also take into account that an article can be still in use many years after its date of manufacture so unless you have compelling and incontrovertible associations like e.g. an object buried in a sealed situation with the skeleton then associations remain at best only plausible. As for the "undercarriage" (the Bevington object) that is at best only one reconstruction of what that tiny blur on the photograph might be - enhancements etc. are all very well but they must be taken with a healthy dose of salt, especially that one.
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