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Author Topic: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)  (Read 40156 times)

C.W. Herndon

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #15 on: July 04, 2012, 08:41:21 AM »

Very interesting review. Thanks for the link Marty.
Woody (former 3316R)
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Chris Johnson

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #16 on: July 04, 2012, 09:08:29 AM »

I like the last post for June and the what if scenario. 
« Last Edit: July 06, 2012, 01:49:18 AM by Chris Johnson »
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John Hart

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2012, 02:45:00 PM »

I guess this is where I should have posted my thoughts on conspiracy theories where that big bad monstrous thing with two heads called "The Government" is "deceiving" its citizens.  I sure wish the govt I have been a part of for over 30 years were that good at being a monolithic entity accomplishing anything with continuity.

I don't know the name of it but, like Murphy's law, I know it is universal.  "The simplest solution is probably correct, the most complicated is most assuredly not."  Someone else may know who to attribute that to.

JB
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Bruce Thomas

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2012, 03:03:03 PM »

I don't know the name of it but, like Murphy's law, I know it is universal.  "The simplest solution is probably correct, the most complicated is most assuredly not."  Someone else may know who to attribute that to.

And if you read the second item in the FAQs, John, you'll find that Occam's Razor may be what you're thinking of.  It's not the same thing, but they share some of the same sentiment.  But for sure, your quote is known to one and all as the glorious "KISS Principle".  :D
LTM,

Bruce
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2012, 02:03:30 AM »

Everybody should know by now that my main interest is in the navigation of the flight. I have shown before that there is was no way that Earhart was on a spy flight that would have taken her over the Japanese Mandate Islands and that there was no way that they could be so far off course to arrive at them accidently.

Campbell has come up with a unique theory to explain how they got to Mili atoll, controlled by the Japanese, a theory that doesn't hold water. He claims that the line directly from Howland to Jaluit in the Marshalls passed directly over Mili. There was a radio station on Jaluit so his theory is that they got the RDF to work and homed on the Jaluit station and the first land they came to was Mili where they landed and were captured. There are some problems with his theory.

First did the radio station on Jaluit broadcast continuously or only after receiving a request? This would require it to be a broadcast station sending out continuous Japanese music, was it? If it required a request to send out homing signals, similar to the request to Itasca, then there was no way for Earhart to make such a request.

Second, a direct line from the vicinity of Howland to Jaluit does not pass over Mili, it passes 58 NM south of Mili.

Third, if they could receive Jaluit then it would make much more sense for them to fly straight west until intercepting the 330° bearing to Jaluit, which passes over Tarawa in the British controlled Gilberts, and then follow that bearing to Tarawa. Any pilot who has flown an ADF instrument approach knows how to intercept a bearing and follow it inbound. Head the plane straight west, 270° true, and take bearings with the RDF. When the null is 60° right of the nose then the bearing to Jaluit would have been 330° (270 + 60 = 330.). Then turn to 330° and follow it and it will take you over Tarawa (called Bairikiri on GE) where she could make her emergency landing there as well as she could on any island without a runway, and she would be in civilization.  Tarawa is only 625 NM from Howland, it is a lot closer than Mili, 765 NM, or Jaluit, 870 NM. And there are a lot more islands to hit in the Gilberts than in the Phoenix's.

I have attached the charts that show the situation.

gl
« Last Edit: July 08, 2012, 12:16:34 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2012, 04:55:55 AM »

Hey Gary---hope all it well. During the final flight, AE was 'reported' to have past over a ship near Nauru, and island in the Gilberts (that I cant quite remember the name or spell !) on her way to Howland. I was thinking that after passing through the Gilbert chain, she encountered the thunderstorm ('cloudy-weather cloudy"). At that point as I plot it, she was basically on course. I surmised that FN directed her to turn south, around the storm for X period of time, fly east for Y period of time to parallel the storm, and Z turn back North after clearing the storm to return to the base course for Howland.
Now, forgetting for a few minutes about the post loss radio signals that 'supposedly' put her in the Phoenix Group, what "IF" FN had her turn North instead of south when they encountered the storm and flew that course. If they never turned back to the east, it might be possible to encounter the Marshalls with fuel on board.
I havent really thought about this alot, and it shows. But see if that make any sense to you.
Tom
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2012, 12:19:03 AM »

Hey Gary---hope all it well. During the final flight, AE was 'reported' to have past over a ship near Nauru, and island in the Gilberts (that I cant quite remember the name or spell !) on her way to Howland. I was thinking that after passing through the Gilbert chain, she encountered the thunderstorm ('cloudy-weather cloudy"). At that point as I plot it, she was basically on course. I surmised that FN directed her to turn south, around the storm for X period of time, fly east for Y period of time to parallel the storm, and Z turn back North after clearing the storm to return to the base course for Howland.
Now, forgetting for a few minutes about the post loss radio signals that 'supposedly' put her in the Phoenix Group, what "IF" FN had her turn North instead of south when they encountered the storm and flew that course. If they never turned back to the east, it might be possible to encounter the Marshalls with fuel on board.
I havent really thought about this alot, and it shows. But see if that make any sense to you.
Tom
Either the Ontario or Myrtlebank.

"Cloudy" does not equal thunderstorm, we fly through clouds all the time. I don't recall any actual reports of storms anywhere near the Gilberts, the weather forecast talked about storms 300 miles east or Lae, nowhere near the Gilberts. There was a report that someone reported the plane passing over Tabteuea and the south end of the Gilberts directly on course to Howland. (BTW, it is always "someone reported the plane", there is never any detail, who reported it? when was it reported? to whom was it reported? how was it reported?)

So it doesn't look like they were deviating either north or south of the course line in the vicinity of the Gilberts.

gl

« Last Edit: July 10, 2012, 03:44:54 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2012, 10:38:27 AM »

There was a report that someone reported the plane passing over Tabituea and the south end of the Gilberts directly on course to Howland. (BTW, it is always "someone reported the plane", there is never any detail, who reported it? when was it reported? to whom was it reported? how was it reported?)

From the wiki:

Ric Gillespie, Forum, 24 April 2011.

In his letter to Bessie Young of June 4, 1940, Irving Johnson says only that a missionary on Beru told him that he had from a native that "...it was believed that the Earhart plane had flown eastward high up over the island of Taputeouea."  The missionary cautioned that "it was hard to tell whether some ignorant native had actually seen an airplane or wished he had."  Maybe a plane was heard or seen, maybe not, but to say that it was reported "in the same 1° 23´ latitude as Nikunau" is incorrect. 

Tabiteuea is a long skinny atoll stretching from 1° 06 ' in the north to 1° 32' in the south. Johnson's third-hand account says nothing about where on the atoll the plane was supposedly heard or seen.
LTM,

           Marty
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #23 on: July 10, 2012, 01:26:10 PM »

Marty---thats the Island I couldnt remember, much less spell.
Gary----in fact there was NO mention of a thunderstorm. Clouds yes. I surmised that something like a thinderstorm may have added to the tailwind/headwind issues, and complicated the navigation the Fred was trying to do. Only way i could reconcile them being off course near Howland, when they were on course for most of the flight. IF the position reports of the islanders at Tabiteuea were correct.
Tom
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2012, 08:09:18 PM »

There was a report that someone reported the plane passing over Tabituea and the south end of the Gilberts directly on course to Howland. (BTW, it is always "someone reported the plane", there is never any detail, who reported it? when was it reported? to whom was it reported? how was it reported?)

From the wiki:

Ric Gillespie, Forum, 24 April 2011.

In his letter to Bessie Young of June 4, 1940, Irving Johnson says only that a missionary on Beru told him that he had from a native that "...it was believed that the Earhart plane had flown eastward high up over the island of Taputeouea."  The missionary cautioned that "it was hard to tell whether some ignorant native had actually seen an airplane or wished he had."  Maybe a plane was heard or seen, maybe not, but to say that it was reported "in the same 1° 23´ latitude as Nikunau" is incorrect. 

Tabiteuea is a long skinny atoll stretching from 1° 06 ' in the north to 1° 32' in the south. Johnson's third-hand account says nothing about where on the atoll the plane was supposedly heard or seen.


Where does this come from? There is no island in the Gilberts extending across the equator and an island of these coordinates would be 158 NM long. See this chart.

gl
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #25 on: July 10, 2012, 10:19:41 PM »


From the wiki:

Ric Gillespie, Forum, 24 April 2011.

Tabiteuea is a long skinny atoll stretching from 1° 06 ' in the north to 1° 32' in the south. Johnson's third-hand account says nothing about where on the atoll the plane was supposedly heard or seen.

Where does this come from? There is no island in the Gilberts extending across the equator and an island of these coordinates would be 158 NM long. See this chart.

The source, as indicated is Ric Gillespie.

I think if you look at   1° 6'23.82"S and 1°32'24.22"S, you'll see that one is at the northern part of the island and the other at the southeastern end.

I don't think Ric meant 1° 6 N and 1° 32 S.

"Tabiteuea is a long skinny atoll stretching from [1° 6'23.82"S] in the north of the atoll to [1°32'24.22"S] at the southern end. Johnson's third-hand account says nothing about where on the atoll the plane was supposedly heard or seen."

See attached from Google Earth.
LTM,

           Marty
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #26 on: July 11, 2012, 01:17:37 AM »


From the wiki:

Ric Gillespie, Forum, 24 April 2011.

Tabiteuea is a long skinny atoll stretching from 1° 06 ' in the north to 1° 32' in the south. Johnson's third-hand account says nothing about where on the atoll the plane was supposedly heard or seen.

Where does this come from? There is no island in the Gilberts extending across the equator and an island of these coordinates would be 158 NM long. See this chart.

The source, as indicated is Ric Gillespie.

I think if you look at   1° 6'23.82"S and 1°32'24.22"S, you'll see that one is at the northern part of the island and the other at the southeastern end.

I don't think Ric meant 1° 6 N and 1° 32 S.

"Tabiteuea is a long skinny atoll stretching from [1° 6'23.82"S] in the north of the atoll to [1°32'24.22"S] at the southern end. Johnson's third-hand account says nothing about where on the atoll the plane was supposedly heard or seen."

See attached from Google Earth.
O.K., that makes sense, give Ric a spanking for that one.

gl
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #27 on: August 25, 2012, 10:31:32 AM »

Tom King is trying to get a copy of the paper he wrote with Roberts and Cerniglia into the hands of William Duncan, who posted some questions about Truth at Last.

Tom thinks the paper answers some of the questions that Duncan asked.

The article is not yet available on the internet, but it is slated to be published Northern Marianas Islands Council for the Humanities and/or the Guampedia.

Please contact Tom directly if you would like to request a pre-publication version of the paper.

King, Thomas F., Thomas A. Roberts, and Joseph Cerniglia

"Amelia Earhart in the Marianas: a Consideration of the Evidence."  Paper submitted to the Northern Mariana Islands Council for the Humanities’ Marianas History Conference, Saipan, June 14-16, 2012.
LTM,

           Marty
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dave burrell

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2012, 03:18:10 AM »

Tom King is trying to get a copy of the paper he wrote with Roberts and Cerniglia into the hands of William Duncan, who posted some questions about Truth at Last.

Tom thinks the paper answers some of the questions that Duncan asked.

The article is not yet available on the internet, but it is slated to be published Northern Marianas Islands Council for the Humanities and/or the Guampedia.

Please contact Tom directly if you would like to request a pre-publication version of the paper.

King, Thomas F., Thomas A. Roberts, and Joseph Cerniglia

"Amelia Earhart in the Marianas: a Consideration of the Evidence."  Paper submitted to the Northern Mariana Islands Council for the Humanities’ Marianas History Conference, Saipan, June 14-16, 2012.

The link below does have a least a summary regarding referenced King paper. Or it could be the whole research paper? Hard to tell. Mr.Campbell apparently sent it to the Mariannas Newspaper. From a June message board post from Mr.Campbell, first link is Campbell talking about his theory, King, and Tighar. Second link is the newspaper report on the Research paper.
The King paper seems to be anything but supporting Campbell's theory on Saipan but by Mr.Campbell's comments he feels otherwise. I think. :-\
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/AERA/message/2803

http://www.mvariety.com/cnmi/cnmi-news/local/47153-earhart-researchers-discuss-saipan-hypotheses.php

« Last Edit: September 23, 2012, 04:06:25 AM by dave burrell »
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Mike Campbell, Truth at Last (Saipan, Government Conspiracy)
« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2012, 06:51:48 AM »

The link below does have a least a summary regarding referenced King paper. Or it could be the whole research paper? Hard to tell.

If you would like to resolve the question, you may contact Tom directly to obtain a pre-publication version of the paper.

Then you will be able to compare the paper to the Marianas Variety article yourself.

If you're willing to rely on my testimony, it is just a summary, not the whole paper.

Quote
The King paper seems to be anything but supporting Campbell's theory on Saipan ...

That is my impression, too.
LTM,

           Marty
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