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Author Topic: After the Landing  (Read 279452 times)

Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #165 on: May 20, 2012, 04:11:34 PM »

... The Navy must have thought that their crews stood of very good chance of finding people ( proviided they were still alive ) or the Navy would not have spent the time and money training crews for missions similiar to this.

The crews were spotters for naval bombardment.

They were trained in finding targets, watching the splash of misses, and suggesting corrections to gun crews.

They were not search-and-rescue professionals because S.A.R., as we know it, did not exist in the 1930s.

This was discussed at some length in a previous thread: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937.

If you wish to add evidence of naval training in S.A.R. prior to July, 1937, and demonstrate that the Colorado aircrew had such training, you may provide it in that thread.
LTM,

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john a delsing

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #166 on: May 20, 2012, 09:01:48 PM »

I stand corrected, thank you.
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Tom Bryant

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #167 on: June 10, 2012, 03:39:13 PM »

To try to get back to the OP on this thread I would consider that even lacking survival training human nature being what it is would lead to certain decisions and actions.
We see this in SAR that even though people are not all the same they tend to do similar things under similar circumstances. Thus history tends to repeat itself.
With a plane down and able to send and receive signals - if the post landing transmissions are accepted - staying close to the plane and trying to stay on a regular contact schedule would be considered. You have a shiny plane and a great big landmark ship nearby. Even if you had landed on some other strip of beach on the island that ship would have been evident as you came in so you know its there and in relative terms everything is nearby on that island.
You may or may not be injured but you don't have extensive resources so you start by living out of the plane - maybe not living on the plane but spending time there with little need to start hauling stuff out that you might need to survive because hope is high that the cavalry will arrive. You might be taking some stuff to shore as needed perhaps and between signal periods have some time to try to figure out where the heck you are and how to tell the world where you are. Maybe do some exploring. Fred takes a sighting and can tell you the latitude but longitude is iffy. Staying in the plane when the sun beats down on it would be torture so some R and R on shore in the shade would be a consideration. Trying to preserve fuel for transmission power would also dictate some actions especially if wondering if the engine will start again.
You are counting on rescue to show up so stick close to the plane. Maybe build a bit of an SOS out on the sand but why bother when you have this great big plane right there like a Winnebego with its hood up waiting for AMA.
If there was any help to be had on that island they would have shown up by now - its a small neighborhood and the local Welcome Wagon would be eager to present you with a fruit basket or two.
It would not take long to establish you were alone - a walk around the area and a check on the interior lagoon would pretty well solve that as the lagoons were often the shortcut between areas on the island. I mean the natives were no fools and as evidenced by other similar but inhabited islands they would use light transit (canoe) across the lagoon rather than walk all the way around. Plus people are messy things and tend to scatter stuff all over the place. Some scouting would tell you pretty quick that the ship wreck was not very recent so no help there.
You are hot and tired and stressed out and thirsty. Might have found the survival stores left from the shipwreck but no telling what condition it is in. I know I would be looking in askance at any canned goods that had not turned into a biology experiment and exploded from being left in that heat and humidity for that long.
The weather starts to turn and the water starts to rise and what was a shallow wade out to the plane starts to become a trial. It gets to the point that you realize that the plane is in peril. Shifting as it gets hit by surf and water creeping high enough to start flooding the rear of the plane (historic tide data suggesting 4 to 4.5 foot tide plus surf). Now its a mad scramble and you are broadcasting an open mike transmission where those that hear you (Betty) can hear a panicked effort to salvage what you can and get your last chance message out. No more calm cool and collected - its do or die time.
I have yet to see anything that would lead me to believe that Fred is terribly injured so the conjecture that he somehow dies while Amelia - the plucky thing that she is - soldiers on alone is not in my story. Maybe she did maybe she didn't - its my conjecture so I get to say LOL.
Winds, surf and tides are making that side of the island less fun (a squall coming onshore with rising tide and surf can be downright brutal) and the plane with your ability to signal is gone - now its time for some serious survival decisions - perhaps too little too late if you had not started serious survival actions earlier.
This is assuming they both didn't just get dragged over the edge right then. I will go with the potential for castaways - I like that scenario better anyway.
By the time planes circle for a brief period the Electra is gone - any SOS coconut sculptures you made earlier on the beach may have been reduced by tide and surf to "signs of habitation ie markings" as noticed by the aerial searchers.
You might be sick or injured - suffering from exhaustion, dehydration and hungry as heck and having a generally less than stellar attention span. You might be inland and under tree cover to get out of the sun. By the time you realize that it really is a plane and get your act together they are gone. Well....crap.
Its all fun to consider and imagine and no harm in doing so and I expect that the conjecture will serve to amuse and motivate until the first hard evidence can be linked to it all and then we can start reverse engineering the whole thing. Until then it will be hard work and eyes on the ground and we can all have fun with the storyline in the meantime.
"Well... it seemed like a good idea at the time"
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #168 on: June 10, 2012, 08:31:16 PM »

To try to get back to the OP on this thread I would consider that even lacking survival training human nature being what it is would lead to certain decisions and actions.
We see this in SAR that even though people are not all the same they tend to do similar things under similar circumstances. Thus history tends to repeat itself.
With a plane down and able to send and receive signals - if the post landing transmissions are accepted - staying close to the plane and trying to stay on a regular contact schedule would be considered. You have a shiny plane and a great big landmark ship nearby. Even if you had landed on some other strip of beach on the island that ship would have been evident as you came in so you know its there and in relative terms everything is nearby on that island.
You may or may not be injured but you don't have extensive resources so you start by living out of the plane - maybe not living on the plane but spending time there with little need to start hauling stuff out that you might need to survive because hope is high that the cavalry will arrive. You might be taking some stuff to shore as needed perhaps and between signal periods have some time to try to figure out where the heck you are and how to tell the world where you are. Maybe do some exploring. Fred takes a sighting and can tell you the latitude but longitude is iffy. Staying in the plane when the sun beats down on it would be torture so some R and R on shore in the shade would be a consideration. Trying to preserve fuel for transmission power would also dictate some actions especially if wondering if the engine will start again.
You are counting on rescue to show up so stick close to the plane. Maybe build a bit of an SOS out on the sand but why bother when you have this great big plane right there like a Winnebego with its hood up waiting for AMA.
If there was any help to be had on that island they would have shown up by now - its a small neighborhood and the local Welcome Wagon would be eager to present you with a fruit basket or two.
It would not take long to establish you were alone - a walk around the area and a check on the interior lagoon would pretty well solve that as the lagoons were often the shortcut between areas on the island. I mean the natives were no fools and as evidenced by other similar but inhabited islands they would use light transit (canoe) across the lagoon rather than walk all the way around. Plus people are messy things and tend to scatter stuff all over the place. Some scouting would tell you pretty quick that the ship wreck was not very recent so no help there.
You are hot and tired and stressed out and thirsty. Might have found the survival stores left from the shipwreck but no telling what condition it is in. I know I would be looking in askance at any canned goods that had not turned into a biology experiment and exploded from being left in that heat and humidity for that long.
The weather starts to turn and the water starts to rise and what was a shallow wade out to the plane starts to become a trial. It gets to the point that you realize that the plane is in peril. Shifting as it gets hit by surf and water creeping high enough to start flooding the rear of the plane (historic tide data suggesting 4 to 4.5 foot tide plus surf). Now its a mad scramble and you are broadcasting an open mike transmission where those that hear you (Betty) can hear a panicked effort to salvage what you can and get your last chance message out. No more calm cool and collected - its do or die time.
I have yet to see anything that would lead me to believe that Fred is terribly injured so the conjecture that he somehow dies while Amelia - the plucky thing that she is - soldiers on alone is not in my story. Maybe she did maybe she didn't - its my conjecture so I get to say LOL.
Winds, surf and tides are making that side of the island less fun (a squall coming onshore with rising tide and surf can be downright brutal) and the plane with your ability to signal is gone - now its time for some serious survival decisions - perhaps too little too late if you had not started serious survival actions earlier.
This is assuming they both didn't just get dragged over the edge right then. I will go with the potential for castaways - I like that scenario better anyway.
By the time planes circle for a brief period the Electra is gone - any SOS coconut sculptures you made earlier on the beach may have been reduced by tide and surf to "signs of habitation ie markings" as noticed by the aerial searchers.
You might be sick or injured - suffering from exhaustion, dehydration and hungry as heck and having a generally less than stellar attention span. You might be inland and under tree cover to get out of the sun. By the time you realize that it really is a plane and get your act together they are gone. Well....crap.
Its all fun to consider and imagine and no harm in doing so and I expect that the conjecture will serve to amuse and motivate until the first hard evidence can be linked to it all and then we can start reverse engineering the whole thing. Until then it will be hard work and eyes on the ground and we can all have fun with the storyline in the meantime.


...or...

They could have survived at least for the ten days that the crew of the Lady Be Good did, and that crew did it in 130 degree desert temperatures with only half a canteen of water for the eight of them and five of them walked 85 miles, one went 26 miles further and one other made it a total 132 miles through the desert.

These things can be done so there is no reason to believe that if Earhart landed on Gardner that they would not have survived quite a long time.

gl
« Last Edit: June 10, 2012, 08:35:03 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #169 on: June 10, 2012, 08:38:29 PM »

To try to get back to the OP on this thread I would consider that even lacking survival training human nature being what it is would lead to certain decisions and actions.
 Fred takes a sighting and can tell you the latitude but longitude is iffy.
Why would the longitude determined by Noonan be "iffy"?

gl
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Tom Bryant

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #170 on: June 10, 2012, 09:54:53 PM »

Gary I am not sure where you got that they didnt survive from my post. The oh crap comment implies they are now in for the long haul.
"Well... it seemed like a good idea at the time"
 
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Tom Bryant

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #171 on: June 10, 2012, 10:28:47 PM »

As to longitude I am no nav whiz but it was my impression that to get an accurate longitude a navigator needed an accurate time. There is no guarantee that Fred had an exact time so I was leaving some room for error in my hypothetical narrative. Your experience may indicate otherwise and if required I can easily adjust my conjecture.
"Well... it seemed like a good idea at the time"
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #172 on: June 10, 2012, 11:29:46 PM »

As to longitude I am no nav whiz but it was my impression that to get an accurate longitude a navigator needed an accurate time. There is no guarantee that Fred had an exact time so I was leaving some room for error in my hypothetical narrative. Your experience may indicate otherwise and if required I can easily adjust my conjecture.
Yes you do need accurate time which is why they waited an extra day in Lae so that Noonan could get a radio time check on his chronometer. At that point it was off by three seconds so it had not changed very much since his prior check of it. If an additional three second change had occurred in the short time since Lae then this would produce only a 3/4ths NM error in longitude, nothing to worry about.
gl
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Malcolm McKay

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #173 on: June 10, 2012, 11:37:43 PM »



...or...

They could have survived at least for the ten days that the crew of the Lady Be Good did, and that crew did it in 130 degree desert temperatures with only half a canteen of water for the eight of them and five of them walked 85 miles, one went 26 miles further and one other made it a total 132 miles through the desert.

These things can be done so there is no reason to believe that if Earhart landed on Gardner that they would not have survived quite a long time.

gl

That is a good point Gary. One of the deeper problems I have with the Nikumaroro hypothesis, and one that is hard to exactly define is that the search aircraft overflight spots nothing other than the vague reference to signs of recent habitation which could be anything including seeing the remains of the Arundel settlement, the traces that the Norwich City survivors left, or even, hypothetically, traces of Earhart and Noonan. However given that the first two instances saw fairly large scale activity while Earhart and Noonan would have needed professional landscape gardeners to create signs of habitation visible as described in the few days that intervened between the disappearance and the overflight then I suspect that it is to the first two that the Navy fliers refer.

So we then we left with no choice but to posit a rapid deterioration and death scenario for the pair to explain their apparent invisibility. The weak point with that however is that the island is not exactly completely bereft of food supplies or water. These may require some effort to obtain, but no more effort than other similarly placed people have overcome. Even without a fire there would always be coconuts (which do contain liquid) and raw fish - unpalatable if you don't like sushi but if it is a choice between starvation and uncooked fish then I can't see them refusing it. So what kills them off or renders them comatose in such a short time?

People have survived for far far longer periods in worse places. They are two relatively well-nourished people without any prior medical conditions that would have rendered them too weak to last more than a couple of days. Sure Earhart picked-up the usual Asiatic curse of the squitters but that had been fixed - from experience of these complaints I can't see her undertaking the flight knowing that every hour or so she would have to crawl over the fuel tanks in the cabin to get to the dunny. Experience tells me you have to move fast.  :-[  She was fit enough to pilot the aircraft and I am pretty positive that Noonan would have refused to undertake the flight if he saw that Earhart was too weak or enfeebled while at Lae to carry out her job.

Every time the failure of the naval aviators to spot them is raised we are offered the convenient but utterly unsupported claim that the Navy fliers basically couldn't see anything because they were trained for observing shell splashes rather than people. But that to me is not a reason, just a convenient excuse to support a wonky "fact" used to create a hypothesis. We must remember that on the one hand people claim that the Navy fliers couldn't spot an elephant in an empty barn while on the other hand we accept that they saw signs of recent habitation.

We have the Betty's notebook induced intellectual coma that is the plucky Amelia and the injured Fred scenario, and we have the big wave washing the Electra off the reef just in time to be missed by the blind as bats Navy observers. Am I alone in not quite buying this - it seems more French farce than reality.

Personally I find this rapid deterioration and death scenario just a tad too convenient a scenario to explain why the Navy didn't spot them. Which still leaves the fundamental question - where they ever there?       
« Last Edit: June 10, 2012, 11:40:32 PM by Malcolm McKay »
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Chris Johnson

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #174 on: June 11, 2012, 02:49:29 AM »

Quote
Personally I find this rapid deterioration and death scenario just a tad too convenient a scenario to explain why the Navy didn't spot them. Which still leaves the fundamental question - where they ever there?   

Malcolm,

is that TIGHARS official line? I'm sure that if you read around the main site Ric is of the beleif that they or one of them survived for some time.

Lady be good = trained professionals with disciplain, better chances of collective survival
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Gary LaPook

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #175 on: June 11, 2012, 04:29:25 AM »

Quote
Personally I find this rapid deterioration and death scenario just a tad too convenient a scenario to explain why the Navy didn't spot them. Which still leaves the fundamental question - where they ever there?   

Malcolm,

is that TIGHARS official line? I'm sure that if you read around the main site Ric is of the beleif that they or one of them survived for some time.

Lady be good = trained professionals with disciplain, better chances of collective survival
But no water, no food, and 130 degree temperature. How do you train for that?

gl
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Chris Johnson

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #176 on: June 11, 2012, 05:56:45 AM »

I was alluding to the practical’s of military training, not specific training for desert marches. 

Military training that is based on team work, following orders, resilience, fitness and a chain of command.  These things would have helped the crew of the ‘Lady’ to deal with their circumstances.

AE/FN didn’t.
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #177 on: June 11, 2012, 07:18:42 AM »

If I can but in here for a second--------it really doesnt matter what we would have done, or what others did in a similiar situation. Its what AE and FN did that we are trying to find the answers to, and frankly its all theories because we werent there. Yes there are coconuts, fish, sea water, crabs, and maybe other things on the island to sustain them. (I'll digress to thoses that have BEEN to the island to tell us what is actually there.) Yes, other people in survival mode have done ok, some havent. What survival skills AE & FN had are a matter which we could debate, but having the skills and what they actually did is my point.
Ever known anyone that was 'book smart". Reading a book onsurvival, and actually applying that inofrmation to the location where you are, is an entirely different deal. Survival in the mountains, is different than a Pacific atoll.
So----we keep searching for clues to possible answers to her survival on Niku.
Ideas?
 
Tom Swearengen TIGHAR # 3297
 
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Chris Johnson

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #178 on: June 11, 2012, 09:14:47 AM »

Well Tom,

i agree because there are no witnesses (just silent). AE/FN may have done a stirling job on the survival stakes, the 7 site suggests this.

I was in a way agreeing with Gary that in my eyes they survived for a while.
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Tom Bryant

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Re: After the Landing
« Reply #179 on: June 11, 2012, 11:18:10 AM »

Surviving can mean a lot of things from staying alive (barely) to thriving. I have no idea what actual survival training or experience the two had but without some real knowledge and experience about survival on a desert island you would want a fair amount of support infrastructure and supplies. Without them life would be possible but could be really miserable. One badly cooked clam and you can be down for the count unable to continue to care for yourself because of illness. A cut can turn septic in short order etc etc. Let alone just getting the basics of food and water.
A team of people comes in handy - thus the tribal approach to indigenous survival.
It is amazing what people can do if faced with a survival situation but if our castaways had not started the job of surviving, including active salvage and supply from the plane and setup of the survival infrastructure they would require, life on that island would have been really really tough. I have pretty extensive experience with survival training and living under primitive conditions and I understand the challenges and if somebody was actually trying to use a broken bottle to cut open clams or boiling water in a glass container in the fire as has been proposed then they were living but not thriving.
Site 7 for instance demonstrates that somebody cooked food there. That may turn out to be an interim camp and a full blown Gilligan's Island/ Swiss Family Robinson resort might be hidden in the undergrowth. I am not thinking so.
We know they weren't around to offer mai tais to the next visitors anyway.
"Well... it seemed like a good idea at the time"
 
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