That's a tough one to answer Tim. As Jeff points out it's still only an opinion at this stage as to what is down there. From my own point of view I am confident they will find aircraft wreckage based on what I have seen. I have even tried to un-convince myself based upon some very valid comments on the forum. Example: what would aircraft wreckage look like after 75 years underwater? well, there have been some splendid pictures of aircraft intact resting peacefully of the bottom of the ocean or lagoon but, that isn't the environment on the reef at nikumaroro as we have come to see in the reef dynamics thread.
I have even tried the 'could it be someone elses plane' route and, that went nowhere as well as it was pointed out that there was only one plane missing in this area at that time. Despite days of research I could only find one other missing twin engined plane for that time period and that was hundreds + of miles away heading for california from Hawaii. I'll keep looking though.
At this stage it would suffice to say that there IS something down there, it was made from material and construction methods designed for lightness, not ploughing through 60 foot waves. It has been there for quite a long time, otherwise we would all be able to see 100% of it but we can't, coral, sediment, residue, whatever naturally prevents that, I would be suspicious if that wasn't the case.
It's not in pristine condition and again, I would be suspicious if it was.
Anyway, there are only 2 possible outcomes this July
1. Aircraft wreckage is found
2. No aircraft wreckage is found
If I was a betting man I would put my 10 bucks on outcome 1
