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Author Topic: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937  (Read 443982 times)

Ric Gillespie

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #450 on: September 03, 2012, 07:47:21 AM »

Since the official TIGHAR position is that Earhart and Noonan were still alive at the time of the Lambrecht search, the failure of the search in the Fossett case is not analogous to the Earhart case, it's apples to oranges.

So you're saying that if Earhart and Noonan were, for some reason, unable to take steps to make themselves seen they become apples rather than oranges and are analogous to the Fossett case.  I think that's a different position than the one you've taken in the past.

I don't think so,

I do.

I have been making my point forcefully that they were alive at the time of the flyover and should have greeted the PISS settlers in October.

Forcefully, but not convincingly.  There's a difference.  BTW, there were no PISS settlers in October 1937.  Maude and Bevington made a three-day visit with 16 Gilbertese delegates.  The only time any of them were anywhere near the Seven Site was on the first day when Bevington and a handful of Gilbertese walked around the circumference of the island - greatly misjudging the distance and foolishly not bringing along any water.  By the time they straggled up the beach past the Seven Site they were in real trouble and focused only on getting back to the other end of the island. I have spent more time than I like to think about at the Seven Site and I can tell you that a company of Marines could march up that beach singing "The Halls of Montezuma" and someone at the Seven site would never know it.

I have also made the point that they were not disabled by disputing the only basis for that claim, the "Betty radio show", and by pointing out that they (according to your theory) waded out to the plane each day across rough and uneven coral, straight arming the sharks out of their way while crossing the boat channel, ran the engine and operated the radio so there is no reason to believe that they were unable to make emergency signals on the beach. You have said that the official TIGHAR theory holds that they were still alive at the time of the flyover and the reason they were not seen is that they were actively doing stuff back in the bush and didn't have time to get to the beach to wave at the planes. Are YOU now changing your position that they were alive but disabled at the time of the flyover?

Not at all.  But if you concede (which you now seem unwilling to do, your comments about apples and oranges notwithstanding) that AE and FN being spotted from the air required their active efforts to attract attention, then anything that prevented them from making those active efforts such as the inability to get out in the open in time (been there, done that) is sufficient to explain why they weren't seen. To Steve Fossetts many life accomplishments we can add painting you into a corner.

« Last Edit: September 03, 2012, 07:56:15 AM by Bruce Thomas »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #451 on: September 03, 2012, 08:07:51 AM »

Hang a map of the pacific on your wall, step back ten feet and throw a dart at the map. Then go to the island that the dart hit and search for a week and I am quite sure that you will find artifacts that can be classified as "consistent" with Eahart being on that island.

And your confidence is based on what? 

(In fact, you will probably have to throw the dart many times to hit an island since it is much more likely that it will land in the ocean, hmmmm.)

I guess we'll just have to bite the bullet and throw the dart as many times as it takes to hit an island because the post-loss messages could only have been sent from an Electra on land (unless you want to suggest a ship-borne hoaxer who knew that Earhart would not reach Howland).

I have a suggestion for TIGHAR. Identify an island that is similar to Gardner in terms of periods of human habitation and go to that island and look for artifacts that are "consistent" with Earhart being on the chosen island (an island that we know she was NOT on) to establish a baseline of island artifacts, this would improve the rigour of the TIGHAR scientific search method.

How about if we went to an island EXACTLY like Gardner and established a baseline of islands artifacts?  That's what we did in 1989, 1991, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2003 at numerous sites all over Gardner Island.  That's how we know that the artifacts we found at the Seven Site in 2001, 2007, and 2010 are anomalous.

In fact, to eliminate any chance of bias (either intentional or unintentional) in finding or overlooking such artifacts, TIGHAR should recruit naysayers to do the search since they will be motivated to find such baseline artifacts. If no such artifacts are found then the TIGHAR collection of stuff becomes much more convincing.

What do you think, Ric?

I think it's a great idea.  Where would you like to be dropped off?
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Monty Fowler

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #452 on: September 03, 2012, 08:15:46 AM »

I think it's a great idea.  Where would you like to be dropped off?

*sips coffee and imagines the possibilities*

Welllllllll, it would allow for that extended search that all the naysayers are always complaining we don't do.

LTM, whose list of people he would like to see dropped off on Nikumaroro Island for at least a year is far to long to be released here,

Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #453 on: September 03, 2012, 09:38:59 AM »

I believe the late dr. Burns said " consisent with north European " which to me implies could have been north European. I could be wrong but dr. Burns did not say " only north European "

Those who wish to read what Dr. Burns wrote can do so here.

The conclusion of that page reads: "It is, of course, impossible to know whether the bones inspected by Dr. Hoodless in 1941 were in fact those of a white female, and if anything even less possible to be sure that they were those of Amelia Earhart. Only the rediscovery of the bones themselves, or the recovery of more bones from the same skeleton on the island, can bring certainty."

That is why TIGHAR sent one team to England and three teams to Fiji and New Zealand to look for the bones
LTM,

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jgf1944

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #454 on: September 03, 2012, 09:53:55 AM »


Yes - but they [TIGHAR artifacts] are tangible finds...  That's more than any other searcher has found to-date, however related or not they may eventually prove to be.
   Peruse the new (2012) Mike Campbell book, Amelia Earhart: the Truth at Last, and examine the evidence for the "Japanese" hypothesis. What Jeff has written will become eminently clear. All Best, John #3245
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #455 on: September 03, 2012, 10:29:41 AM »

   Peruse the new (2012) Mike Campbell book, Amelia Earhart: the Truth at Last, and examine the evidence for the "Japanese" hypothesis. What Jeff has written will become eminently clear. All Best, John #3245

We have a whole board devoted to Alternatives to the Niku Hypothesis, with a fairly sizable thread on Campbell's book

I invite those interested in following up on John's remark to carry the discussion on over there.
LTM,

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Gary LaPook

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #456 on: September 03, 2012, 11:35:19 AM »


In fact, to eliminate any chance of bias (either intentional or unintentional) in finding or overlooking such artifacts, TIGHAR should recruit naysayers to do the search since they will be motivated to find such baseline artifacts. If no such artifacts are found then the TIGHAR collection of stuff becomes much more convincing.

What do you think, Ric?

I think it's a great idea.  Where would you like to be dropped off?

Bora Bora.

gl
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #457 on: September 03, 2012, 11:45:06 AM »

Bora Bora.

I dunno.  Bora Bora is only 1,500 nm from Niku.  If she could get to New Britain she could get to Bora Bora and I don't want you finding her before we do.

I'm thinking maybe someplace in the Aleutians.
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Dave Potratz

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #458 on: September 03, 2012, 12:55:12 PM »

Bora Bora.

I dunno.  Bora Bora is only 1,500 nm from Niku.  If she could get to New Britain she could get to Bora Bora and I don't want you finding her before we do.

I'm thinking maybe someplace in the Aleutians.

I'll second the Aleutions, and I could suggest another "expert" as a traveling companion. 

Sorry, couldn't help it... ::)
dp
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Bill Mangus

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #459 on: September 03, 2012, 06:22:53 PM »

I hear Shemya is nice this time of year.
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John Kada

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #460 on: September 03, 2012, 09:27:11 PM »

 

The skeletal remains, record regarding same and Dr. Burns' judgment are more convincing to me, sorry dear fellow! 


An article about the reanalysis of the bones measurements by Burns and Janz was published in Vol 15, No. 2 of Tighar Tracks (http://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/14_2/14-2Bones.html). Key conclusions regarding origin and gender are:

Ancestry: The skull is more likely European than Polynesian, although it cannot be excluded from any population. Comparing the skull measurements to European, Polynesian and Micronesian populations, it is most similar to Norse females (see Figure 1).

Sex: Assuming the skull represents a person of European ancestry, the FORDISC analysis indicates that the individual represented was most likely female. Unfortunately the level of certainty is very low; the female/male probability is ca. .65/.35. If Hoodless measured orbit breadth in a different way such that the orbits were in fact a couple of milimeters greater as measured today, this would change the classification to male, with male/female probabilities of .53/.47


Also note that according to the Tighar Tracks article:

Both Burns’ and Jantz’ analyses were based on the assumption that Hoodless measured orbit breadth and tibia length in the same way as these variables are recorded in current data bases. This may not be correct, but we have no basis for assuming that he measured them in any different way.

Burns and Janz stated the level of certainty about the gender of the castaway to be very low. I think we should all be careful to avoid implying that their study provides convincing evidence about the gender of the castaway.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2012, 10:55:32 PM by John Kada »
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Monty Fowler

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #461 on: September 03, 2012, 09:50:56 PM »

Bora Bora.

gl

I dunno, Gary, do they have a good enough internet connection there so you can keep updating your Earhart site? That's an important consideration.

Speaking of your site, something I can't help noticing that it lacks, that TIGHAR's has, that you might want to consider, just in the interest of transparency and all that - a discussion board. Why is that?

LTM, who believes in airing all the laundry,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER
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Gary LaPook

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #462 on: September 03, 2012, 10:21:32 PM »

Bora Bora.

gl

I dunno, Gary, do they have a good enough internet connection there so you can keep updating your Earhart site? That's an important consideration.

Speaking of your site, something I can't help noticing that it lacks, that TIGHAR's has, that you might want to consider, just in the interest of transparency and all that - a discussion board. Why is that?

LTM, who believes in airing all the laundry,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 CER
I have no idea how to do that or even if it is possible on Google sites. I think it is quite clear why I put up that site as can be seen from the welcome page:   
   
   "This site is designed to provide  information about the disappearance of Fred Noonan and Amelia Earhart on July 2, 1937 to further research into this great mystery . This site has excerpts from standard flight navigation reference books to allow the serious researcher access to materials not otherwise easily available. This material is indexed both by source and by topic. There are also copies of flight navigation charts covering the route from Lae to Howland and on to Mili and Gardner (Nikumaroro.) There are also discussions about the celestial navigation methods and techniques being utilized by Amelia Earhart's navigator, Fred Noonan."

and that is what it does.

https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/

gl
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Gary LaPook

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #463 on: September 03, 2012, 10:29:06 PM »

I hear Shemya is nice this time of year.
Both of those suggestions sound interesting but I don't think that they would provide valid data because the culture of the people on those islands is too distant and different from the people on Gardner and the environment is significantly different, which might make the people value different objects differently than the people on Gardner and either discard them or take them with them when they left in a way that is not representative of the experience on Gardner. Bora Bora is much closer culturally and climatically to Gardner.

gl
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Gary LaPook

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Re: FAQ: Colorado / Lambrecht Search, 9 July 1937
« Reply #464 on: September 03, 2012, 10:42:06 PM »


Not at all.  But if you concede (which you now seem unwilling to do, your comments about apples and oranges notwithstanding) that AE and FN being spotted from the air required their active efforts to attract attention, then anything that prevented them from making those active efforts such as the inability to get out in the open in time (been there, done that) is sufficient to explain why they weren't seen. To Steve Fossetts many life accomplishments we can add painting you into a corner.
But considering that they had their wits about them as claimed by the TIGHAR theory (sending radio messages, etc.) then there is no reason for them failing to write SOS in the sand prior to trekking into the scaveola on whatever mission you believe that they were on at just the wrong moment. Also, there were two of them, "Fred, you stay out here and be ready to light our signal fire that we have set up next to the big SOS we scratched in the sand if you see a ship and I will hack my way into the damn brush to look for water, be back in an hour."

So they didn't need to be active at the exact instant that the planes passed over, only active at any time prior, by setting up obvious markers, and you believe that they were active and not dead or laid low prior to the Lambrecht search.


gl
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