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Author Topic: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews  (Read 57085 times)

Nate Pickering

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #30 on: July 22, 2014, 12:09:27 PM »

The "trails" seemed promising for a while but not so much now.  The photo in which we first saw them is the same 1938 aerial photo we now have in much better resolution.  No trails in the better photo.
The "old trail" on the Bushnell map turns out to be not so old.  It's the base line the Kiwis cut for their survey of the Aerodrome Reserve.  The New Zealand survey party left in February 1939.  The photos from which the Bushnell map was made were taken less than two months later on April 30.

It seems to me the "trails" are kind of a red herring at any rate, as nothing can be gleaned from the pictures in question that's definitive enough to affect the veracity of the hypothesis one way or the other. Even if it could be stated with total certitude that they were human-made footpaths, anything beyond that would necessarily be in the realm of conjecture.

It's one of those things (and this story has a lot of them) that, while it's interesting and worthy of investigation, it shouldn't form the basis of any important conclusions, because those conclusions would then be based on wishful thinking and hopeful interpretations rather than on what the evidence actually shows or doesn't show.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2014, 12:11:28 PM by Nate Pickering »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #31 on: July 22, 2014, 12:47:14 PM »

It's one of those things (and this story has a lot of them) that, while it's interesting and worthy of investigation, it shouldn't form the basis of any important conclusions, because those conclusions would then be based on wishful thinking and hopeful interpretations rather than on what the evidence actually shows or doesn't show.

Amen to that.
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Dale O. Beethe

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #32 on: July 22, 2014, 06:14:10 PM »

That's one of the problems with archeology, there are so darn many interesting side roads to tempt us away from the questions at hand!
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Nate Pickering

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #33 on: July 22, 2014, 10:06:07 PM »

That's one of the problems with archeology, there are so darn many interesting side roads to tempt us away from the questions at hand!

It's not a bad problem to have, really, because in going down those side roads you wind up familiarizing yourself with subjects you might otherwise never have studied. I, for one, can't think of any other context in which I'd find myself happily reading research papers on forensic anthropology.
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Tim Gard

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #34 on: July 23, 2014, 04:39:24 AM »

I've always found the Seven Site trail argument appealing and would be glad if you could find more in support of it.  Right now it looks like a muddle to me.  For the reasons I cited above, I lost this argument, which I made to the study group, when I made the case.

Joe Cerniglia
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Joe,

It's good to know you went into bat for the Seven Site trail argument.
As Ric demonstrates in Aerial Tour of Nikumaroro, footprints can be present but not be evident from an elevation of 50 feet (4:20).
Searching for signs of same 15 months after the event leaves no stone unturned and makes full use of the available evidence.

I'm intrigued about the pristine and somewhat geometric  arrow in this image.
Is this an identification marking on the photo or another geometric vegetational anomaly I've often seen  across Nikumaroro?

 

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Joe Cerniglia

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #35 on: July 23, 2014, 05:18:33 AM »

Tim,

This is a hurried post as I rush out the door this morning with less than usual time for revision, but...
Yes, I agree with you.  Personally, I could be persuaded the photo you've linked shows trails at the Seven Site.  I was before.  It's only when one applies the higher litmus test of 'is it capable of proof' to the science of photographic analysis that the certainty, in a group sense, drops off, and quite precipitously at that.  There's probably a lesson there in that the interpretation of a photograph, even the interpretation of those who are highly trained in the work (and I am not), is liable to be hotly disputed, or perhaps ignored (but perhaps rightly) as little more than one person's opinion.

To the larger question of what would it prove if proven, raised by Nate, I'm not so certain. 
Are any of these things central to the investigation?  Absolutely not.  But a lot of very good evidence has been gleaned from things previously written off, or very nearly abandoned as of low value, that I can recall.  Science, unfortunately - or perhaps fortunately, depending on one's will and wallet - does not allow that the value or promise of discovery can always be predicted in advance. 

Joe Cerniglia
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« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 08:23:23 AM by Joe Cerniglia »
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Tim Gard

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #36 on: July 23, 2014, 06:16:27 AM »

Tim,

This is a hurried post as I rush out the door this morning with less than usual time for revision, but...
Yes, I agree with you.  Personally, I could be persuaded the photo you've linked shows trails at the Seven Site.  I was before.  It's only when one applies the higher litmus test of 'is it capable of proof' to the science of photographic analysis that the certainty, in a group sense, drops off, and quite precipitously at that.  There's probably a lesson there in that the interpretation of a photograph, even the interpretation of those who are highly trained in the work (and I am not), is liable to be hotly disputed, or perhaps ignored (but perhaps rightly) as little more than one person's opinion.

To the larger question of what would it prove if proven, raised by Nate, I'm not so certain. 
Are any of these things central to the investigation?  Absolutely not.  But a lot of very good evidence has been gleaned from things previously written off, or very nearly abandoned as of low value, that I can recall.  Science, unfortunately - or perhaps fortunately, depending one one's will and wallet - does not allow that the value or promise of discovery can always be predicted in advance. 

Joe Cerniglia
TIGHAR #3078C

Well said Joe.

I marvel at the info available in Aerial Tour of Nikumaroro; the video, coupled with Ric's narration, provides a perspective not available to stills, video and document perusers like myself. Even those aspects of the Seven Site that are commonly undisputed change with the position and attitude of the Hughes. The only annoying thing is what filmmakers call "atmos". The background sound is on a loop - so you hear the voice of a guy in background iteratively declaring the same remark while the gas turbine changes power inappropriately - you get the idea.

Like yourself, my view is that smaller aspects of the hypothesis that may or may not support same, don't refute it. They are more like fine grained sign posts near the end of a long journey; (having resolved nation, state, city, locale, it's now down to street and house number).

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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #37 on: July 23, 2014, 08:57:05 AM »

I'm intrigued about the pristine and somewhat geometric  arrow in this image.
Is this an identification marking on the photo or another geometric vegetational anomaly I've often seen  across Nikumaroro?

I'm satisfied that it's nothing more than a patch of sand that caught the light just right in that one image.  It does not appear in any other photo.  We went to that spot on the ground in  2007 (no small feat). There's nothing there but a naturally open area.  If it had been cleared to make an "arrow" in 1937 it wouldn't still be clear.
Like the "trails," it's an example of how more and better imagery and information can change perceptions drawn from a single image.  Litigious railroad tycoons take note.
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Monty Fowler

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #38 on: July 23, 2014, 09:09:28 AM »

Litigious railroad tycoons take note.

Then there's that whole apophenia thing. It's one thing I love about the English language, it can be sooooooooo, well, descriptive.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP
Ex-TIGHAR member No. 2189 E C R SP, 1998-2016
 
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Brano Lacika

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #39 on: July 23, 2014, 10:53:03 AM »

Litigious railroad tycoons take note.

Then there's that whole apophenia thing. It's one thing I love about the English language, it can be sooooooooo, well, descriptive.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

Some of non English mother language readers however, would sometimes appreciate a little simplier language...  :) Btw, could someone be so kind and explain what the hell means "gone squatchin"?   :o
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Tim Mellon

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #40 on: July 23, 2014, 11:31:25 AM »

Litigious railroad tycoons take note.

Quote

A request:
Let us not stoop.  Please avoid ad hominem attacks.  We're better than that and they accomplish nothing productive.

....



Tim
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« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 11:33:47 AM by Tim Mellon »
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Tim Gard

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #41 on: July 23, 2014, 11:37:17 AM »

I'm intrigued about the pristine and somewhat geometric  arrow in this image.
Is this an identification marking on the photo or another geometric vegetational anomaly I've often seen  across Nikumaroro?

I'm satisfied that it's nothing more than a patch of sand that caught the light just right in that one image.  It does not appear in any other photo.  We went to that spot on the ground in  2007 (no small feat). There's nothing there but a naturally open area.  If it had been cleared to make an "arrow" in 1937 it wouldn't still be clear.
Like the "trails," it's an example of how more and better imagery and information can change perceptions drawn from a single image.  Litigious railroad tycoons take note.

Many thanks for your response and background to the "arrow" Ric.
You've inspired further thoughts from me which are:

1. Forming an arrow from of an existing clearing,  by collecting firewood at the appropriate edges, seems much more appealing than trying to carve a visible shape out of the scavola in an inaccessible place and from scratch. Collecting firewood without performing a dual function also seems devoid of intention.

2. The area's ability to grow back may be evidence of the destiny of any putative trail and provide a timeframe for such. Likewise the need for a trail in the first place. Said of certain deserts - you need a good reason to go out there.

3. Being only visible from a certain location is my impression of the Seven Site as witnessed from the Hughes. The site's shape and location is published, yet there are instances where it doesn't look like a seven and isn't visible in the Aerial Tour. That means a latter day viewer could be left questioning the existence of the Seven Site because the shot he is viewing was taken from an inappropriately positioned overflying Hughes.
 
The Seven itself is surely not subject to apophenia  or even mass-apophenia. It looks like a seven, plain and simple to me and is aptly named (is that a form of onomatopoeia)?

 
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« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 11:40:22 AM by Tim Gard »
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Tim Mellon

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #42 on: July 23, 2014, 11:42:04 AM »

Btw, could someone be so kind and explain what the hell means "gone squatchin"?   :o

"Gone Squatchin" is a reference to the serious analysis of images of Bigfoot by TIGHAR's forensic analyst Jeff Glickman.
Tim
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« Last Edit: July 24, 2014, 08:18:57 AM by Tim Mellon »
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Nate Pickering

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #43 on: July 23, 2014, 12:17:15 PM »

1. Forming an arrow from of an existing clearing,  by collecting firewood at the appropriate edges, seems much more appealing than trying to carve a visible shape out of the scavola in an inaccessible place and from scratch. Collecting firewood without performing a dual function also seems devoid of intention.

I'm fairly confident in saying it would be difficult, well nigh impossible, to cut straight lines through a scaevola patch using bladed hand tools.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #44 on: July 23, 2014, 12:17:46 PM »

"Gone Squatchin" is a reference to the serious analysis of images of Bigfoot by TIGHAR's forensic analyst Jeff Glickman.

For anyone who is interested, attached is one of the "Motions In Limine" we have filed with the court in case any part of the lawsuit survives our motions for summary judgement and we actually have a trial.  It deals with Gone Squatchin'.

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