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Author Topic: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews  (Read 57103 times)

John B. Shattuck

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2014, 12:14:57 PM »

Quote
Quote from: Paul March on Today at 11:38:29 AM

The threshold of proof is a moving target for the most part (because somehow opinions are too often seen as fact). An argument can and will be made regarding both 2-2-V-1 and any DNA (should some ever be found). The underwater wreckage would be much more problematic to dismiss.




I agree with that.  What will it take to conclusively identify underwater wreckage?

Frankly I think we will need a dramatic picture of a relatively intact airplane that the public can look at and understand as AE's plane without a lot of technical explanation.  A debris field, substantiation of 2-2-V-1, DNA in Fiji, and other evidence would contribute to a "conventional wisdom" swing in our direction.  Short of finding a serial numbered part of the aircraft, or DNA on Niku itself; we may have to be satisfied that conventional wisdom will swing to the Tighar Theory once the aircraft is found and identified, 2-2-V-1 is substantiated, and/or other evidence is substantiated.  Personally I think the conventional wisdom swing is already started; the Tighar Theory seems to be introduced with less skepticsm and more like an alternative when I see it in the media. 
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Nate Pickering

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #16 on: July 21, 2014, 12:41:57 PM »

Elgen Long did an extensive interview with Bellarts.  We have both the audio recording and the transcript.  I've been reluctant to post the interview because I'm not sure who owns the copyright. Elgen? The foundation to which he donated his papers? The Bellarts family?  I'll check with our legal eagles.
Bellarts' interview, like all interviews done years after the event, is necessarily tainted by subsequent events, opinions, leading questions from the the interviewer, and the vagaries of memory - but it's still interesting and revealing about the personalities and attitudes aboard Itasca.

I hope there's a way this interview can be disseminated at some point, because I'd sure love to hear/read it. Not necessarily because of any new information that might be gleaned from it, but because Bellarts is one of my favorite characters in the whole story. Aside from being a highly skilled professional who was very good at his job, he seems like he was just a cool guy in general. If I was making a "people I'd like to have a beer with" list of all the players in the Earhart narrative, he'd probably be at the top.

Thanks for such a thorough and detailed reply, Ric. Much obliged.

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Nate Pickering

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2014, 01:46:28 PM »

Frankly I think we will need a dramatic picture of a relatively intact airplane that the public can look at and understand as AE's plane without a lot of technical explanation.  A debris field, substantiation of 2-2-V-1, DNA in Fiji, and other evidence would contribute to a "conventional wisdom" swing in our direction.  Short of finding a serial numbered part of the aircraft, or DNA on Niku itself; we may have to be satisfied that conventional wisdom will swing to the Tighar Theory once the aircraft is found and identified, 2-2-V-1 is substantiated, and/or other evidence is substantiated.  Personally I think the conventional wisdom swing is already started; the Tighar Theory seems to be introduced with less skepticsm and more like an alternative when I see it in the media.

The trouble with conventional wisdom is 1) it's wrong at least as often as it's right, and 2) it tends to be emotion-based rather than rationale-based. In order to understand why the Niku Hypothesis is the best working assumption for explaining the ultimate fate of Amelia and Fred, one must possess (or be willing to acquire) at least a cursory knowledge of the relevant fields of scientific inquiry, in addition to having a functional grasp of the overarching principles of science and logic in general. In the latter case, it goes without saying that this is unfortunately a bridge too far for many members of the American general public. That's why the discovery of the mythical "any idiot artifact" is so much more important in the public relations sense than it is in the academic/scientific sense. Moreover, you have to contend with the fact that people generally love a mystery more than they love the solution, especially a mystery that's as deeply ingrained in the consciousness of a culture as this one is.

I think you're right, though, that there's been a slow but inexorable shift in the tone of the media coverage that TIGHAR and the Niku Hypothesis receive. A dozen or so years ago when I first started tracking developments, Niku was almost always presented as a fringe theory and Ric Gillespie as some sort of crackpot Don Quixote-type figure. Today, refreshingly, it seems as though this is a thing of the past, and there's been a general acknowledgement in journalistic circles that TIGHAR's work has been carried out with the appropriate scientific rigor by qualified professionals, and has produced a body of hard evidence more weighty than that which supports any of the competing hypotheses.
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Jennifer Hubbard

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2014, 06:52:21 PM »

That's why the discovery of the mythical "any idiot artifact" is so much more important in the public relations sense than it is in the academic/scientific sense. Moreover, you have to contend with the fact that people generally love a mystery more than they love the solution, especially a mystery that's as deeply ingrained in the consciousness of a culture as this one is.

Yes; academic opinion and public opinion may not necessarily reach the same conclusion at the same time. I tend to believe the mystery will be solved by an accumulation of evidence that is consistent with the Niku hypothesis (as adjusted over time), which will eventually reach a tipping point where it seems that a landing on Niku was the most likely outcome of the various possibilities. But, of course, if an "any idiot" artifact is identified, that would be great.

However, even if such an artifact were discovered, the point about people loving a mystery is well taken. People will always be able to come up with alternate ideas, even to explain the presence of an "any idiot" artifact (e.g., it must have washed up from somewhere else ...)

As for (hypothetical) bones in Fiji: a lot would depend on the circumstances under which they were discovered, and what was known about their provenance. Who had them, where that person got them, what container they were in and where that container come from, what labels or addresses or directions or identifying marks accompanied them, etc.

I also wish Lambrecht had been much more specific!
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Nate Pickering

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #19 on: July 21, 2014, 07:11:40 PM »

As for (hypothetical) bones in Fiji: a lot would depend on the circumstances under which they were discovered, and what was known about their provenance. Who had them, where that person got them, what container they were in and where that container come from, what labels or addresses or directions or identifying marks accompanied them, etc.

My thinking is that should there be a bones discovery in Fiji that satisfies a certain set of criteria (e.g. they have been obviously undisturbed for many decades, their number and measurements are consistent with Dr. Hoodless' report, and their condition suggests that they were exposed to an outdoor tropical environment for the first three years subsequent to the expiration of the decedent), then in the absence of a better documented explanation for whose they are and how they got there, there would be a very compelling circumstantial argument to be made that they are the selfsame remains discovered on Niku in 1940. But, obviously, the question of whether they are the remains of a certain aviatrix would remain unresolved pending further analysis by a qualified forensic pathologist.
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Jennifer Hubbard

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #20 on: July 21, 2014, 07:13:52 PM »

As long as we are wishing we could interview Lambrecht: what became of J. L. Marks, the observer who flew with Lambrecht?
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #21 on: July 21, 2014, 07:48:01 PM »

As long as we are wishing we could interview Lambrecht: what became of J. L. Marks, the observer who flew with Lambrecht?

Good question.  We tried to find him.  No luck.  If he was 20 years old in 1937 he'd be 97 now.
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Tim Gard

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #22 on: July 21, 2014, 08:24:13 PM »

I think the Eric Bevington interview is about as close to the ideal as you can get.

There is some chance that Amelia may still have been alive during his visit.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #23 on: July 21, 2014, 08:34:52 PM »

I think the Eric Bevington interview is about as close to the ideal as you can get.

There is some chance that Amelia may still have been alive during his visit.

It was a privilege to meet Eric Bevington and compare notes about our respective experiences on Gardner.  They were pretty much the same. The island hasn't changed much.
Eric was the epitome of the British Colonial Service officer. A fine gentlemen totally commited to the well-being of the people he served.
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Nate Pickering

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #24 on: July 21, 2014, 08:37:39 PM »

To me, the most intriguing aspect of Lambrecht's "signs of recent habitation" quote is in his choice of the word "habitation" rather than "activity" or something along those lines. "Habitation" would seem to imply he saw something that led him to believe people had been recently living on the island, which we know not to be the case (that is, aside from our castaways).

By the day of the Lambrecht search, Amelia and Fred would have been on Niku for exactly one week, the Electra would have already been lost to the tide, and in all likelihood they were making whatever provisions were possible for their own comfort and survival. It stands to reason that if you're sheltering in place and hoping to be rescued, you would do so in such a way that evidence of your presence might be visible from the air should someone come looking for you. A good place to start (assuming they had the necessary tools for the job) would be to strip a bunch of aluminum from the wings and/or fuselage of the aircraft and use it to build the roof of a shelter. It was the only reflective material at their disposal, and reflection is usually the best bet for attracting attention from the air. It's certainly a better bet than jumping up and down and waving your arms.

Granted, it's just as likely that Lambrecht chose the word "habitation" for no particular reason at all and I'm just reading too much into it. But how instructive it would be if we could get a clarification from the man himself; in point of fact, his choice of that one word is a big part of the reason I put him at #2 on my fantasy interview list.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2014, 11:04:33 PM by Nate Pickering »
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Tim Gard

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #25 on: July 21, 2014, 11:38:29 PM »

It stands to reason that if you're sheltering in place and hoping to be rescued, you would do so in such a way that evidence of your presence might be visible from the air should someone come looking for you.

One poster concluded that this was done at the seven site. The seven was turned into an A for Amelia and an arrow was cut from the scavola pointing to the A.

If the survivor(s) had to collect firewood on their daily trek between the Buka forest and the seven site, they might just as well have made the process beneficial.

Lambrecht was long gone by then though.
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« Last Edit: July 22, 2014, 02:28:13 AM by Tim Gard »
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Joe Cerniglia

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #26 on: July 22, 2014, 06:59:43 AM »

It stands to reason that if you're sheltering in place and hoping to be rescued, you would do so in such a way that evidence of your presence might be visible from the air should someone come looking for you.

One poster concluded that this was done at the seven site. The seven was turned into an A for Amelia and an arrow was cut from the scavola pointing to the A.

If the survivor(s) had to collect firewood on their daily trek between the Buka forest and the seven site, they might just as well have made the process beneficial.

Lambrecht was long gone by then though.

The NZ photo study group generally dismissed the idea of the trails, for the reasons that natural gaps in vegetation aren't readily distinguishable from foot traffic, and the effect of lighter coral turned up by foot traffic doesn't seem to appear in the New Zealand photos.  Que sera, sera.

Joe Cerniglia
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« Last Edit: July 22, 2014, 07:02:14 AM by Joe Cerniglia »
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Tim Gard

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #27 on: July 22, 2014, 07:11:47 AM »

It stands to reason that if you're sheltering in place and hoping to be rescued, you would do so in such a way that evidence of your presence might be visible from the air should someone come looking for you.

One poster concluded that this was done at the seven site. The seven was turned into an A for Amelia and an arrow was cut from the scavola pointing to the A.

If the survivor(s) had to collect firewood on their daily trek between the Buka forest and the seven site, they might just as well have made the process beneficial.

Lambrecht was long gone by then though.

The NZ photo study group generally dismissed the idea of the trails, for the reasons that natural gaps in vegetation aren't readily distinguishable from foot traffic, and the effect of lighter coral turned up by foot traffic doesn't seem to appear in the New Zealand photos.  Que sera, sera.

Joe Cerniglia
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Yet from the ground, and on an earlier occasion, others found otherwise.

"It is worth noting that we are not the first to notice “trails” on this part of the island. When the U.S. Navy prepared a map of Gardner Island from the aerial photo mosaic taken on April 30, 1939 and the results of the surface survey made by USS Bushnell in November 1939, the map maker noted the presence of an "old trail" between the lagoon and the ocean at a location about one kilometer northwest of the “7.” The feature can be seen in the 1939 aerial mosaic and in the 1938 photo. "

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Joe Cerniglia

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #28 on: July 22, 2014, 07:35:04 AM »

Tim,
I'd be delighted if the Seven Site trail theory was less muddled by the differing images.  But the NZ photos, in their defense, appeared to be of a high enough quality for the study group to make that determination if they were there, and they didn't.  The citation of the map maker's observation of the old trail is interesting, but I'd want to see a primary source to be more convinced. 

I've always found the Seven Site trail argument appealing and would be glad if you could find more in support of it.  Right now it looks like a muddle to me.  For the reasons I cited above, I lost this argument, which I made to the study group, when I made the case.

Joe Cerniglia
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« Last Edit: July 22, 2014, 09:24:46 AM by Joe Cerniglia »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Question for Ric/TIGHAR vets: Top 5 fantasy interviews
« Reply #29 on: July 22, 2014, 11:38:03 AM »

The "trails" seemed promising for a while but not so much now.  The photo in which we first saw them is the same 1938 aerial photo we now have in much better resolution.  No trails in the better photo.
The "old trail" on the Bushnell map turns out to be not so old.  It's the base line the Kiwis cut for their survey of the Aerodrome Reserve.  The New Zealand survey party left in February 1939.  The photos from which the Bushnell map was made were taken less than two months later on April 30.
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