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[JNev]

Jeff, it has been about 25 years since I was briefly doing comm, nav and surveillance (cns)systems for oceanic flights over the north atlantic at the start of my engineering career... but back then, on planes flying to Europe, there was limited or practically no CNS once you were a bit away from the boston area, until one got into range to ireland. So planes had to be spread out, as ATC was not sure exactly where they were over the north atlantic.

Now there is widespread GPS (for nav and surv), ACARS (both of which can be shut off) and Inmarsat are still there.  I am not upto what other comm they have now - definately sat I think. But I think all these can be shutoff by a hijacker, like on this ML flight (except Inmarsat). That leaves primary surv via sats only if plane is hijacked.  And I am not upto how widespread their use is by ATC ( the FAA was  v. very conservative to change). Even with that, a rogue pilot is the biggest nightmare, and practically unstoppable.
 That makes this thing so scary.

We are prolly the only ones who may have sat surveillance over the south indian ocean area ... and the malaysians still have not asked formally for our assistance. And these are the same guys who knew the same day that it had shown up on their mil radar, and let the search continue in the wrong place for the next 5-6 days. Unbelievable. That would never happen here.

The Inmarsat data is the most important and reliable, imo. With the several pings they have, including the final one at 8:11,they should be able to plot the likely course(s), with flight speed, concentric ping radii circles, fuel etc. calculations and search within likely areas.

You sort of underscore my thoughts, Manjeet - and no offense was intended toward any sector - please consider:

A large part of the difference as I see it is exactly what you cite with Malaysia's hesitation.

I gather by "we" you mean India - for whom I have the greatest respect as to technical capability.  That was not part of my thinking on 'backwater' - it has more to do with how the region behaves nation-to-nation and the relative disparities there among nations as to specific capabilities.  In terms of a swift, competent response, he U.S. calling on the U.K. or France for help in a situation like this would be one thing, I believe; India, for instance, doing the same of Malaysia or Thailand would be altogether another - would that be a fair belief?  Not that India wouldn't help Malaysia quite competently with whatever she has - but as you've pointed out...

That's a large part of the net that I see missing in that part of the world compared to northern hemisphere / western-allied nations - it is not just about technical resources.

Well agree a rogue pilot is a nightmare anywhere.  Didn't we have a 767 pile into the Atlantic in the hands of a transport pilot some years ago for that reason?  All the detection in the world cannot stop that.  But as to stealing a transport and getting away with it (if that is what happened) - a very different matter.

[manjeet aujla]

I looked up CPDLC quickly and the whole thing brought back memories of multiple meetings of FAA, ICAO, FANS groups etc. This datalink system was the hot topic back then, and ALL the airlines, FAA people insisted that voice should always be available no matter what/how data links were used. Good they have some sort of implementation. And it seems to be primarily Inmarsat data links- not surprised. They had been doing this with ships for a while, and had the most experience, and more important to the industry - most credibility.

Inmarsat wanted to implement a different modulation scheme (for satellite transmission) for the airline system, and as a contractor, I was charged with technically evaluating it. When talking to me about it, the FAA/ICAO guys (who were nontechnical people and primarily managers and administrators) would refer to it as the 'squiggles in the air'.... lol.

[manjeet aujla]

@Jeff.

By 'we', I mean the USA. I have been a citizen for nearly 30 years. 

[manjeet aujla]

@Jeff.

I don't what the politics is back there anymore, but Yes, it is fair to say they would have different considerations in helping each other, than say from the British and us. This degree of cooperation changes with changing politics.

[JNev]

@Jeff.

By 'we', I mean the USA. I have been a citizen for nearly 30 years. 

Thanks - wasn't sure, but trying to get context - I stand corrected.  Agreed, and apologies if I've offended unintentionally.

That said, I still have the respect for India that I've stated - so far as I know they are well advanced there in comparison to many others in region and have a sophisticated system generally.  My thoughts about short-comings there have more to do with relationships among the various countries and how the net as a whole functions (or does not).

Yes, agree, U.S. is well blessed and has not been tapped to speak of, except now - FBI into reconstructing files that were 'deleted' from the pilot's flight simulator in February. 

Speaking of which, I don't find the Flight Sim to be a particularly ominous thing - but I guess those files will reveal if any premeditative stuff was going on or not in that venue.  I doubt that an 18 thousand hour 777 pilot would sweat too much about what was done other than thinking the whole scheme through very carefully.  Ultimately, if he were to land the bird somewhere, he just needs enough runway - and given that, it's a no brainer once he's there.

[Andrew M McKenna]

For the less conspiracy minded, there is an alternate theory put forth here:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Electrical fire on board developing before the last "good night" shuts down the ACRS system.  Upon discovering the fire, they turn immediately to the left and program the flight computer on a heading towards the nearest long runway not obstructed by mountains = Palau Langkawi. 

Concurrently the crew is shutting down all electrical systems, including the transponder and the radio as part of dealing with the electrical fire, subsequently to be overcome by toxic fumes.

Aircraft carries on down the LOP (just kidding) towards the Maldives for another 6+ hours, which makes sense of this story:

http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/18/flight-mh370-residents-on-remote-island-in-maldives-saw-jet-matching-missing-malaysia-airlines-planes-description-4640688/

And eventually ends up in the ocean.  The Maldive islander's stories are largely being considered unreliable as the timing is somewhat off.

Not sure how all this matches up with the angle to the ACRS satellite, but it is certainly a simpler solution worth looking into.

Note the parallel with the Nikumaroro Hypothesis of discounting the recollections of Island residents as being unreliable.

amck

[John Ousterhout]

I'm curious how the angle was determined from the ACRS satellite, and therefore the possible track/position on the ground.  The systems I'm familiar with don't use position sensors that allow precise calculations of angles relative to the Earth.  It's much like the DF data from our favorite Lockheed pilot - the angles measured are +/- some large number (but centered on Gardner).  If the angle from the satellite to the ping is calculated by signal transient time, then the error is likely to be even greater.  Therefore, I recommend anyone contemplating the arcs shown on the maps add a wide error band centered on those bands but at least a few hundred miles wide.

[Steve Lee]

This article (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2584816/Search-area-missing-jet-dramatically-narrowed-US-officials-hone-satellite-signals-engine.html) seems to indicate (though the wording is somewhat ambiguous) that investigators do have data from a series hourly pings, not just the last one at 811 AM:

"...Hourly satellite pings from the aircraft, refined by U.S. and British aviation officials, provided far more information than expected as to where a wreck may be found, allowing the search to be drastically narrowed to two possible flight paths. 

Both of the routes head toward the South Pole and end in the Indian Ocean, some 1429 miles from Perth..."

[Richard Lyon Metzger]

But why???
Maybe a ransom for the 20 employees of a high tech electronics company that were on board.
Would you contact the authorities if you knew the kidnappers would kill/threaten them???
What is the minimum distance needed to land a 777, but not necessarily takeoff?
There are many abandoned airfields within its range.



LTM

[Steve Lee]

Perhaps the Australians glimpsed a portion of the path of the airliner on JORN?

[George Lam]

This article (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2584816/Search-area-missing-jet-dramatically-narrowed-US-officials-hone-satellite-signals-engine.html) seems to indicate (though the wording is somewhat ambiguous) that investigators do have data from a series hourly pings, not just the last one at 811 AM:

"...Hourly satellite pings from the aircraft, refined by U.S. and British aviation officials, provided far more information than expected as to where a wreck may be found, allowing the search to be drastically narrowed to two possible flight paths. 

Both of the routes head toward the South Pole and end in the Indian Ocean, some 1429 miles from Perth..."

If this article is accurate, well this just may be it then, if the hourly pings give an indication of the flight path.  Why did we only hear about the final ping for so long before they put them all together?  Waiting to see if the debris spotted west of Australia is of the plane.

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

Australia sees possible plane debris
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26659951

[C.W. Herndon]

For the less conspiracy minded, there is an alternate theory put forth here:

Aircraft carries on down the LOP (just kidding) towards the Maldives for another 6+ hours, which makes sense of this story:

http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/18/flight-mh370-residents-on-remote-island-in-maldives-saw-jet-matching-missing-malaysia-airlines-planes-description-4640688/

And eventually ends up in the ocean.  The Maldive islander's stories are largely being considered unreliable as the timing is somewhat off.

I don't think that the Maldives are anywhere close to where the Australians now think that Flight 370 may have gone down.

[JNev]

For the less conspiracy minded, there is an alternate theory put forth here:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Electrical fire on board developing before the last "good night" shuts down the ACRS system.  Upon discovering the fire, they turn immediately to the left and program the flight computer on a heading towards the nearest long runway not obstructed by mountains = Palau Langkawi. 

Concurrently the crew is shutting down all electrical systems, including the transponder and the radio as part of dealing with the electrical fire, subsequently to be overcome by toxic fumes.

Aircraft carries on down the LOP (just kidding) towards the Maldives for another 6+ hours, which makes sense of this story:

http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/18/flight-mh370-residents-on-remote-island-in-maldives-saw-jet-matching-missing-malaysia-airlines-planes-description-4640688/

And eventually ends up in the ocean.  The Maldive islander's stories are largely being considered unreliable as the timing is somewhat off.

Not sure how all this matches up with the angle to the ACRS satellite, but it is certainly a simpler solution worth looking into.

Note the parallel with the Nikumaroro Hypothesis of discounting the recollections of Island residents as being unreliable.

amck

Anxious to see what comes out of this as the debris field can be located and investigated - 'lawn dart' theory (well, sea dart) is the less bizarre and the incident-turned-tragic mode of incapacitating crew, etc. is plausible. 

Now comes this morning a blurb on Fox from one observer that the flight may have been transporting a shipment of Lithium Ion batteries, which can cause mischief similar to that experienced by another jumbo transporting a similar shipment in past.

But not as interesting as the more bizarre rumblings so many of us 'enjoy'.. and in saying that, I can't overlook that we are always talking about the fate of 239 human beings.  This thing is terribly sad any way it comes out.

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

Sadly Jeff the signs are pointing towards it being the missing flight.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26662641