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[JNev]

This string really provokes the mind's eye.

These are good points, and the possible use of driftwood is an excellent contruct of the possibilities.

We may, however, still be stuck with the real possibiilty of the placard and flagpole from the 5 months previous visit playing into this somehow.  I respect the interpretation of the 'plurality' of Lambrecht's own latter-day voice in clarifying his earlier observations, but this remains such a glimmering reflection of an island just over the horizon to me. 

Maybe that is part of the charm of this search - so much seems so logical, and so within reach - if we could just stretch a bit further and grasp it once and for all.

I also appreciate that Lambrecht probably gave spoken testimony to his superiors that we never got verbatim; what we got was his releasible version - which fit the official outcome: 'no survivors were found, we moved on'.  That doesn't mean that every man in the room believed Earhart had never been there, it just means they had to face the reality of limited resources and time - and that no one was seen there to be rescued, and that the real possibility existed that she might yet be waiting elsewhere.

I think I've commented before that the order of the day was not, primarily anyway, to 'solve a mystery', but to 'save lives if possible'.  I can see that as time wore on, the former (solve a mystery) may have played more into it - but I'll venture that couldn't have been the prime focus 7 days out.

I take Lambrecht's later comments as him still having some sense of mystery about what he saw as well; coulda been Earhart, coulda been something else.  No gleaming bird on the beach, no one in evidence - if she had been there, she wasn't evident on July 9. 

I remain charmed and somehow, oddly, empathize with Lambrecht's own likely sense of mystery as I think over all of this.  Nobody wants to be the guy who missed Earhart on the beach; not his fault if she couldn't respond, and with only so much power to investigate, the guy has to choke it down that the beach is just empty in real terms of survivors and turn away.  His ship had to steam on.

[Ric Gillespie]

Remember also that Fred Goerner, the guy who interviewed Lambrecht many years later, was firmly invested in Earhart NOT being on Gardner.  We do not have a transcript of the interview.  All we have is Goerner's later recollection of what Lambrecht told him.  There MAY be a transcript or an audio recording of the interview among Goerner's papers which are housed at the National Museum of the Pacific War (formerly the Nimitz Museum) in Fredericksburg, TX.

[manjeet aujla]

These are all good points...and maybe indicative that we may never know. It is plausable that AE/FN were very occupied with monitoring the radio.

However we can deduce something from what DID NOT happen...there were no subsequent flyovers took place over Niku. From this fact, we can reasonably deduce that whatever Lamb. saw as 'marker's etc., he did not associate it with AE. His written report was brief about 'markers', but during his verbal de-briefing he would surely have mentioned any indication that the markers were associated with AE, as Old Irish did in his reports. If Lamb. had said to his officer that the markers seemed to him as coming from AE, there would certainly have been more flyovers/landing parties.

This does not preclude that AE did not make any markers, just that Lamb. did not associate them with her. A fire with lots of smoke, being the most likely signal, would surely have drawn Lamb. attention. If he just saw the flagpole, it indicated 'habitation', but not AE's presence.

imho.

[JNev]

Remember also that Fred Goerner, the guy who interviewed Lambrecht many years later, was firmly invested in Earhart NOT being on Gardner.  We do not have a transcript of the interview.  All we have is Goerner's later recollection of what Lambrecht told him.  There MAY be a transcript or an audio recording of the interview among Goerner's papers which are housed at the National Museum of the Pacific War (formerly the Nimitz Museum) in Fredericksburg, TX.

Wonder if we have any inquisitive members in or near Fredericksburg, TX that would look into that for us.  What a cool museum, too - been there.

I don't know that reviewing the actual record, if there, would reveal anything more positive, but Lambrecht is now an important man of history to us and it would be nice to know just what he said.

[JNev]

These are all good points...and maybe indicative that we may never know. It is plausable that AE/FN were very occupied with monitoring the radio.

However we can deduce something from what DID NOT happen...there were no subsequent flyovers took place over Niku. From this fact, we can reasonably deduce that whatever Lamb. saw as 'marker's etc., he did not associate it with AE. His written report was brief about 'markers', but during his verbal de-briefing he would surely have mentioned any indication that the markers were associated with AE, as Old Irish did in his reports. If Lamb. had said to his officer that the markers seemed to him as coming from AE, there would certainly have been more flyovers/landing parties.

This does not preclude that AE did not make any markers, just that Lamb. did not associate them with her. A fire with lots of smoke, being the most likely signal, would surely have drawn Lamb. attention. If he just saw the flagpole, it indicated 'habitation', but not AE's presence.

imho.

Good points.  But I'm not sure Lambrecht ever said he "did not associate" the signs with Earhart - seems more to have indicated that no survivors were in evidence, and therefore no further investigation was made.

[Ric Gillespie]

Whatever Lambrecht saw made him think someone was down there.  He made repeated attempts ("circling and zooming") to get someone to come out on the beach and wave.  He does not say where on the island this activity occurred nor does he say how long it went on, but when no one appeared he assumed no one was home and moved on.
I feel quite sure that he did not think that the signs of recent habitation had anything to do with Earhart.

[JNev]

Whatever Lambrecht saw made him think someone was down there.  He made repeated attempts ("circling and zooming") to get someone to come out on the beach and wave.  He does not say where on the island this activity occurred nor does he say how long it went on, but when no one appeared he assumed no one was home and moved on.

I feel quite sure that he did not think that the signs of recent habitation had anything to do with Earhart.

I see your point.  Had he believed that, we likely would have a different outcome - some additional effort to sort things out at Gardner.

[Monty Fowler]

Remember, at Hull Island, when people came out, Lambrecht took a chance and landed in the lagoon. He seems to have been very leery of having one of his aircraft become the object of its own search and rescue. Understandable, given the climate of the times.

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

[Dan Swift]

I feel quite sure that he did not think that the signs of recent habitation had anything to do with Earhart.

Why wouldn't he consider that possibility?  Weren't they searching for AE as the mission?  Could there have been a low fuel situation...."got to get back to the ship can't spend any more time" scenario possible?   

[matt john barth]

Does anyone know if Fred Goener asked Lambrecht what he meant by "signs of recent habitation"? During their interview that is.

[JNev]

I feel quite sure that he did not think that the signs of recent habitation had anything to do with Earhart.

Why wouldn't he consider that possibility?  Weren't they searching for AE as the mission?  Could there have been a low fuel situation...."got to get back to the ship can't spend any more time" scenario possible?   

I got the feeling Ric meant after no one found that Lambrecht may have dismissed the idea - maybe because it was soon enough that one would have an expectation of 'survivors' in-evidence, and finding none perhaps deciding the 'signs' were too old, or something.  Just a thought in a sea of speculation

[Monty Fowler]

Low fuel was not an issue: http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Forum/FAQs/gardneroverflight.html. But they did not have unlimited time"

"If we allow 10 minutes each for McKean and Carondelet that leaves 18 minutes for Gardner. A circuit around the perimeter of the island is roughly 10 nautical miles so, at 90 knots, it should take 11 minutes to make one trip around. The rest of the available time could be spent on more detailed inspections of anything of interest such as the lagoon, the shipwreck and the reported 'signs of recent habitation.' "

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

[Ric Gillespie]

Does anyone know if Fred Goener asked Lambrecht what he meant by "signs of recent habitation"? During their interview that is.

Yes, and Goerener's recollection was that Lambrecht said he saw "markers of some kind."  That's what we've been talking about.

[JNev]

Low fuel was not an issue: http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Forum/FAQs/gardneroverflight.html. But they did not have unlimited time"

"If we allow 10 minutes each for McKean and Carondelet that leaves 18 minutes for Gardner. A circuit around the perimeter of the island is roughly 10 nautical miles so, at 90 knots, it should take 11 minutes to make one trip around. The rest of the available time could be spent on more detailed inspections of anything of interest such as the lagoon, the shipwreck and the reported 'signs of recent habitation.' "

LTM,
Monty Fowler, TIGHAR No. 2189 ECSP

That math is a bit off.  At 90 knots, 10 miles would take more like 6 1/2 minutes or so.

Just thinking through that and what I recall of Niku 'terrain', one fairly large swatch might be eliminated quickly after one pass - that southern shore which isn't so wide or heavily forested.

Then the long stretch from the southeastern tip up to the nothern / northwestern tip seems to get thicker as you go - more chance of someone being 'in there'; similar for the western shore areas.  Then you also have lagoon shoreline - can you take it all in with a couple or three circuits of the island?

As long as I'm mind-diddling, I can see a quick cruise along the fairly open southern shore, then a growing concern for how to cover the seaward beach and lagoon shores effectively where the forests bear the most potential for hiding whomever might be down there.  That's still a lot of shoreline.

Would someone become (or remain) concealed while trying to run to the beach (if able), or to the lagoon shore, as the airplanes traversed those areas?  Could they attain enough open ground to get an airplane's attention if they were on say, the lagoon shore, but the airplane is now over the beach?

I'm just driviling - but the point is, that is a fairly large island with lot's of complexity in its own way for anyone trying to search it in a few minutes.  My thought is the search plane would likely be pretty reliant on a castaway being industrious about making signs of presence.  Something to tuck away for future reference if nothing else, just in case I get stranded on some faraway island one day...

[Ric Gillespie]

I feel quite sure that he did not think that the signs of recent habitation had anything to do with Earhart.

Why wouldn't he consider that possibility?  Weren't they searching for AE as the mission?  Could there have been a low fuel situation...."got to get back to the ship can't spend any more time" scenario possible?   

I speculate that Lambrecht most certainly WOULD have considered that possibility, but if he did he apparently rejected it.  Why would he do that?
Perhaps because he reasoned that an airplane is much easier to see than a person.  Find the airplane and you'll find Earhart.  He titled his report - which was actually an article for a Navy newsletter - "Aircraft Search of Earhart Plane." 
He sees something on the ground that indicates to him that there are people down there.  Who might it be? Earhart?  No, there is no airplane.  Must be somebody else.  All of these islands have natives harvesting coconuts (or so he thought).  Maybe we can get them to come out and wave.  Still don't see anybody. I guess nobody is home.