getting that piece of information involves a relatively unhurt, fully functioning Fred Noonan getting out of the plane with his octant and his navigation handbook, establishing the sun’s position at its highest point and looking up the latitude to go with it. In the light about what has come to light since 1993 about the shape the aircraft and AE/FN seem to have been in, that doesn’t seem very likely, or does it?
Sure it's likely, especially right after the landing. There is no real evidence in the radio reports that Noonan was fully incapacitated, although he seems hysterical on the last day. It's important to understand that Noonan lived and breathed navigation. You can bet your bottom dollar that he would have done absolutely everything he could possibly do to find their position, once they were at Niku. I'm sure he felt responsible for the flight going astray. It was, after all, his job to make sure that didn't happen. With the stable platform of land from which to take measurements, he would be able to much more precisely figure out where they were. The latitude, especially, he would be able to figure relatively easily. The longitude relies on an accurate chronometer, so would be less reliable. But unless he was extremely injured, he would definitely, immediately, try to get those readings. Navigation was his life.
(Another crucial piece of information would have been that they followed “the line 157/337”. The person Dana Randolph and Betty heard never mentioned that, and the “281” doesn’t come up in Betty’s transcript, either. The person Betty heard transmitted a lot of figures that no one has been able to make sense of so far, and comes across as having no idea where she is at all.
Betty's Notebook has 158/338 written all over it, or close approximations to that. Of course, Niku is actually closer to 158 than 157, and Earhart knew the last thing she transmitted about her position during the flight was 157/337, so it would make sense to correct that piece of information with a closer LOP that would lead to their current position.
When you put together 281 miles from the equator, on a coral reef SE of Howland, on the LOP 158/338, near a wreck named Norwich City (copied by Betty as New York City), it becomes clear she had a pretty good idea where she was - she just didn't know the name of the island.
This makes me think that maybe FN was incapacitated in the landing and AE went over his notes and transmitted anything she could find in the hope that somebody listening could interpret it correctly. Of course, that makes it even more unlikely that they had the information about being 281 nms south of the equator.)
There is no evidence in the radio reports that Earhart was transmitting everything she could find, in a haphazard manner. Almost everything anyone copied, had to do with the key information needed to get rescued - call sign, location info, and status. One of the few exceptions is when she seems to be giving instructions about the suitcase in the closet etc, at a time when she was probably presuming she may not be rescued. Extraneous statements such as "take it away Howland" show frustration at not being heard. Again, there is no indication anywhere, that Noonan was incapacitated at the landing. Injured, yes - incapacitated, no. Hysterical towards the end, but no indication of that any time earlier.
Latitude was easier to figure, and the reading would be reliable - he probably did know they were 281 miles away from the equator. And that would be a key piece of information that would help searchers, even if longitude was not known or not known to be accurate. I'm not sure why everyone seems to want to throw away the 281 report - it is one of the strongest indications we have, just by sheer odds. Think about it - of all the possible numbers to be copied, the ONE number that is copied reliable is the number 281 - and they were 281 miles from the equator - what's the odds? To me, it is extremely likely they transmitted the number 281 because that was their location. If it walks like a duck...
There really is a lot to learn here and what Charlie and Kevin write makes me realise that my picture of Morse code is wrong. I’ve always pictured it as very technical but it’s obviously much more “alive” and the radio operator receiving code has a very active role. In fact, it sounds a bit like simultaneous translation. I’ve had some impromptu experience with that and relaying information between people who don’t have a language in common has made me realise that it’s sometimes hard to fight the impulse to “improve” a statement - and unconsciously change it - by substituting obvious nonsense with what makes sense in the context. Does that also apply to a Morse code “translator” (and could that have contributed to “North” getting into the message)?
It is alive - it's a lot like speaking or hearing speech. It's always entertaining to experienced operators when people talk about dots and dashes and how they can be misconstrued. Because CW operators don't hear dots and dashes - they hear letters. When you learn code, you train your brain to recognize a certain sound as being a certain letter - the dots and dashes literally disappear and you hear the letter. Once you get some proficiency, it becomes easier, and you don't have to write down every letter - you can hold the letters in your mind until the end of the word, and just write or abbreviate the word. At very high speeds, operators actually hear words instead of letters, and it's much more like real speech. That is the level most CW ops want to get to.
At most speeds, it is a lot like simultaneous translation - you hear the letter and write it down and only when you have enough letters, you know what the word is. It's not like hearing a word in your own language - it's like translating, where you hear the sound, translate it into your native language, and then you know what was said.
As for "improving" what you think you heard, it's relatively uncommon with code, since letters are being transmitted and written down, it's much more difficult to change things in your head, like is common with spoken speech. Spoken speech is so fast, your brain is always trying to guess what is being said, so sometimes those guesses are what gets written down in logs. Not so much in CW, except maybe in very fast code - 35 WPM or faster, where it's too fast to write down the letters and you can only write down the word. Then the same brain "guessing" becomes part of the equation. That's not in play here with the crude, slow code - you can bet those operatots are writing down exactly what they think they heard, without embellishment.
- WD7J
