One last point I missed during thread weave. I'll call it the howland of silence.
Quite catchy?.. ok maybe not. Anyhoo...
I started this thread to bring attention that the Islands at "ground zero" might be the most logical spot to look for where the transmissions were coming from. In Dr. Bradenburgs report (which is due proper respect,), a lot of transmissions were rated as "credible" in large part on the assumption that there was no other source possible for logistical reasons, that being no other radios transmitting on AE's frequency. Well I have shown there were radios in range able to complete the task. Two islands nearby and an unknown number of military and civilian boat traffic, as well as Japanese and Russian radio stations on 3105khz as well.(though of course Mainland Asia would not triangulate)
Multiple stations using the 3105 frequency is a fact. So a fragment of speech, or a dash, could have come from any of those stations by intent or accident if in the right area.That is not speculation. Bradenburg considered Nicaraguan sources, but left off the Japanese military,boats, and Howland and Baker islands. What Japan had and where is unknown in 1937 and without that knowledge we cannot say with any degree of certainty any transmission is from the Electra.
Baker and Howland is where I started this hoax theory. Because they fit the triangulation area and had Ham sets. Japan is the huge variable because what they had and where it was at is the great unknown.
One country alone could be the source of all these transmissions. But I started at the Howland/Baker duo as the first possible alternative source, so I would like to clarify a point I was making on the islands; so back to the Ham operators and if they could pull off a hoax....
1. They had radios. They could listen and probably transmit to the required frequency. They had the means and opportunity with minor speculation.
2. Their actions were odd in hindsight. Motive? who knows. Excitement? Spite?
Let's go back for a minute..
On day two of the loss, Baker finally chimes in and reports Amelia was heard BY VOICE. Not many voice transmissions were heard. What is odd is that it was reported from Baker to Howland to Itasca. It was listed as "delayed". So baker gets it, sends to his pal yum on Howland, who holds this information for another day, then sends it to Itasca. One of the very few voice transmissions from the electra, life and death, and it's delayed? Now maybe there is a good reason for that, but I cannot think of one. That is a circumstantial event that can lead to the subjective opinion of accepting or rejecting the source.
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog.htmlBut we also have something even more odd in my opinion going on with these two amateur stations on Howland and Baker. If you read the catalog, you will find most transmissions are picked up by the Itasca. Which makes sense, being as it was fairly close, say 400-600 miles from Niku? It was close. But Baker and Howland were even closer. The post loss catalog is a lot of Itasca hearing signals, but next to nothing from Baker and Howland.
Isn't that odd? Especially since it has been postulated that there were issues with the Itasca's recievers or attenna as a reason the Itasca could sometimes not hear a transmission a New Zeland or British Boat did hear. The Itasca may have not had tuned radios but the vast majority of transmissions were received by that old boat. A lot of fragments heard by the Itasca and her supposedy bad antenna or receivers. There was Amelia out night after night transmitting, too bad the only receiver within 500 miles had bad antenna right?.. well wrong.
We have the silence of Baker and Howland. How many did they receive? The closest radios. They both heard zilch as Amelia went further and further away from Howland to Gardner supposedly. They did not hear her frantic the first night after landing on a reef. Well we know of the one weird example just listed. The "delayed" transmission. I believe there was one other transmission received by these two islands.
Why?To speculate, the obvious answer is they were doing the transmitting.
The first "delayed" report Yum sent over after holding it a day might have been looked on with suspicion from the Itasca. They had not heard it. This young Chinese kid heard Amelia talking and the military had not?
Both of these two islands inactivity in this search, being the closet to Niku, is just weird. They were only 350 miles away. Lae heard Earhart 400 miles away. The Itasca was picking up signals all over it's search area. There were people in Toronto, Kentucky, getting Amelia hits. Not so much with the new Chinese operators at the scene of the crime so to speak. Not even a fragment on day 1. The theory of Baker being too close to hear, may be theoretically feasible. I rather doubt it. That they were listening would seem given the magnitude of the event and demands of the Navy.
Their logs prove they were receiving Japanese music on 3105khz.
But not a lot of Amelia activity after the one delayed report Yum turned in.
At the least, perhaps a study of the Ionosphere and propagation results could answer why Baker and Howland had so few receptions.
Just speculation? Yes and No.
No speculation in pointing out multiple sources for transmitting on the 3105 frequency. Baker and Howland were there. It is speculating that Howland , Baker, or the Japanese pulled a hoax, a transmission block, or innocent and accidental transmissions that were picked up in fragments and misinterpreted.
Yes a few possible transmissions triangulate close to Gardner. But there were other possibilites for each and every one of these transmissions besides Amelia.A boat searching for Tuna, or the Japanese wanting to check out our ships and response times, or it could be as simple as a disgruntled Chinese teenager on Howland/Baker.
They could all triangulate as well.