Malcolm said -
...the New Britain hypothesis is currently as valid as the Nikumaroro hypothesis simply because neither has been proven to be correct.
That's a very strange statement.
The Niku hypothesis includes that NR16020 was reasonably known to be in the vicinity of Howland (by radio signals, etc.), very arguably would have had the range to reach Niku (by the fuel aboard at take-off, hours consumed to reach Howland vicinity, etc.) and other significant factors which I will not try to enumerate here.
East New Britain enjoys none of these supporting points - it cannot be rationally demonstrated that NR16020 was near that place on the morning that it was near Howland, nor could the available range remaining in NR16020 fuel load have gotten the plane down there. In fact, it is demonstrable, however tempting the 'tag story' may be, that it could
not have been near East New Britain that day for those very reasons. Further, even if such a tag existed and were found, there can be many reasons why it did not relate to NR16020 at all. Just like the Benedictine bottle, for example, could have many sources, so could such a tag: we merely know of one tantalizing 'possibility',
if the report is even accurate.
For instance, I can tag a mount with a given serial number; the mount is a standard part. The mount may be fitted to any number of like airframes. The mount may in fact belong to another make and type altogether and simply have a coincident number, however strange.
I can fill a benedictine bottle and go into the wild, die and have it near my poor remains; it is a common item. The bottle may be brought later - by someone else, perhaps someone who seeing the skeleton, became startled and dropped the bottle...
But we don't rely on the bottle, etc. alone. We rely on rational possibilities.
So how can East New Britain, not supported by any more than this report of a tag, be considered "as valid as the Nikumaroro hypothesis simply because neither has been proven to be correct"? That makes no sense at all.
Let's see... that Venus has a core of molten cheese is as valid a hypothesis as that of my safe arrival at work today... granted, neither is proven - but if you give those equal weight I'd say the balance seems to have a thumb on one end...
Egad - pray for my safe arrival - I hope that is more likely than Venus being found to have a core of cheese... but neither is proven yet. What say ye? I'll report later - hopefully I can beat the Venus thing.
LTM -