I would like to correct information from my earlier post. The last "credible" post loss radio signal was on Wednesday, July 7th at 2018 Gardner time see
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog5.html Item #175
The search by the US Navys Grummans from the Colorado were on Friday, July 9th around mid morning local Gardner time See
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Lambrecht's_Report.htmlThis means the Electra disappeared sometime within that approximately just under 40 hour window. The TIGHAR hypothesis is that the aircraft was pulled from the shore into the deeper water just off the reef where it landed. See
http://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/15_1/hypothesis.html This same reference only says that the seas got rougher that week but do not mention a storm.
Is it likely that the castaways would simple land and leave the aircraft right where it stopped? Remember this is on a flat reef at low tide around noon on July 2nd. As the castaways would have observed the tide coming in and evidence of a high tide line on the beach, would they have just left the plane where it landed or move it closer to safety?
In the flight over Niko video the simulated landing by the helicopter first shows the proximity to the Norwich City and then shows the simulated landing on the reef flats. This isn't close to the beach. Its quite exposed. Ric has commented that the plane could not be taken onto the beach due to the jagged and pitted geology between the reef flat and the beach itself. However we do have post loss radio messages meaning the Electra was upright and able to run the right engine. At least up to within 40 hours of the aerial search.
The aerial search was done by three aircraft with two crew in each. They saw the Norwich City and from the height they were flying (minimum 400 feet to avoid birds) they would have had a good view of the reef flat where its presumed the Electra landed. No report of a big silver airplane. Where did it go?
Is it possible the castawys recognized that the Electra was their best piece of survival gear and moved it away from high tide's harm? She did have the engine running for the radio. She probably had an idea of how much fuel she had left. Why not just inch the plane higher up the beach to avoid the high tide damage. If there was any because we know the transmitter didnt get wet or it would not likely have worked. See Wet Radio under the Radio section of the forum. Ric's reply # 6 says
"She seems to have sent radio calls for several days (nights actually). She can only do that from the airplane. The airplane has to be somewhere where the water does not reach the transmitter at high tide and where the water is low enough at low tide for her to run the engine to recharge the batteries. The place where the debris is seen in the Bevington photo does not meet those criteria. Where the airplane was "parked" while sending radio messages does not necessarily have to be where it stopped at the end of its landing roll - unless the landing ended in a gear collapse. She can land wherever the reef looks smoothest and then taxi to a higher spot that may not be as smooth but gives her a few more inches - anything to stay above water. She can't taxi to anywhere near the beach. Way too pitted and jagged.
This, of course, is all theorizing. We start with what we believe to be fact and then say, "If this is true then this must also be true.""
So did the castaways then abandon their best survival gear (the Electra) to the high tides that had NOT taken the aircraft into the depths all week. Did the high tides then, within the 40 hour window, when we would have had cycles of high and low tides, destroy the aircraft such that it went over the edge of the reef and left nothing substantial for the aerial searchers to identify as possible aircraft wreckage. All within a 40 hour window?
Could the castaways have decided to use the aircraft as one last, or best, chance to get away? Facing ever growing physical weakness as food and water ran out would they do the one thing they knew how to do and that was to fly the Electra out?
But they were never found. They likely then crashed at sea, leaving their few possessions including some Electra parts they had taken on shore to act as tools for cutting open crabs or coconuts. But NR16020 hasn't been found, signals lasted until July 7th Gardner time then stop, No severe weather like a tropical storm reported in the 40 hour window (would have to have started and stopped between last message and good flying weather of Friday July 9th).
It is only speculation. But isn't this testing the hypothesis? Or am I advancing a theory? I look forward to the responses and corrections.