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Volume 15, 1999 pp. 51 – 59 |
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The TIGHAR Hypothesis | ||||||||||||
In the course of twelve years of research, our impression of what happened to Amelia Earhart, Fred Noonan, and the Lockheed Electra in which they disappeared has changed and evolved many times as new information has been uncovered and old theories have been laid to rest. We fully expect that process to continue, but here is how the picture looks at this time. | ||||||||||||
At 08:43, twenty hours and thirteen minutes into the flight, and with somewhere between three and four hours of fuel remaining, Earhart and Noonan have been unable to make visual or two-way radio contact with Howland Island. They implement the only procedure available to them which will minimize the chance of having to land the aircraft in the sea they proceed southeastward on a heading of 157 degrees. | ||||||||||||
Shortly before noon, the aircraft is landed successfully on the reef-flat at Gardner Island at low tide on the smooth stretch of coral just north of the S.S. Norwich City, the ship that ran aground there eight years earlier. | ||||||||||||
That evening, the aircraft’s radio is used to send distress calls. Transmissions continue for a few days. | ||||||||||||
By a week later, rougher seas and increased surf on the reef have forced Earhart and Noonan to abandon the aircraft which is now obscured from view at high tide. The castaways seek shelter from the sun in the dense bush inland and come upon a cache of provisions left behind by the rescuers of the Norwich City survivors eight years earlier. When search planes from the USS Colorado are heard overhead on the morning of July 9th Earhart and Noonan are unable to reach the open beach in time to be seen. If anything of the airplane was visible through the surf, its proximity to the Norwich City led the searchers to dismiss it as debris from the shipwreck. | ||||||||||||
Literally marooned on a desert island, Earhart and Noonan survive for a time but eventually succumb to any of a number of possible causes including injury and infection, food poisoning (some local fish are highly toxic), or simply thirst. Noonan dies not far from the site of their landing. His bones are later found and buried by the island’s first settlers. Earhart dies at a small makeshift campsite near the lagoon shore on the island’s southeastern portion. Her remains are discovered there in 1940 by British authorities. | ||||||||||||
The airplane on the reef is destroyed by surf action and the debris is scattered “downstream” across the reef-flat, along the shoreline, and into the lagoon. During the island’s period of habitation (1938–1963) the colonists encounter, and in some cases recover and use, various bits of wreckage, but most of the debris is eventually swept through the main lagoon passage and deposited in the large sandy shoal just inside the passage. Those components recovered by the colonists are mostly consumed in local uses such as fishing tackle and decorative items. | ||||||||||||
Whatever now survives of NR16020 is either on the lagoon bottom or buried in the sandy shoal just inside the main passage. Some wreckage may have been pulled seaward from the original landing site and may rest on an offshore coral shelf. The apparent absence of wreckage in the shoreline vegetation at the west end of the island (as indicated by TIGHAR’s 1999 search) is probably due to earlier salvage activity by the colonists and the scouring action of significant weather events in subsequent years. Buoyant bits of wreckage may have washed up anywhere along the lagoon shore and may still survive deep in the dense shoreline vegetation. More scraps of salvaged material used by the islanders almost certainly survives in the abandoned and overgrown village. The portions of Earhart’s skeleton that were found on the island in 1940 (a skull and several arm and leg bones) and taken to Fiji for examination in 1941 may still exist. The bones that were not found (primarily the spine, ribs, half of the pelvis, hands and feet, one arm, and one lower leg) have probably now been consumed by the forces of nature. The bones that were recovered and examined may still exist but search efforts to date have been unsuccessful. Noonan’s remains may be buried in one of the graves found on the western end of the island. |
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The Evidence | |
Here are the puzzle pieces that make up the picture described above. | |
Hypothesis 1 Twenty hours and thirteen minutes into the flight, and with somewhere between three and four hours of fuel remaining, Earhart and Noonan have been unable to make visual or two-way radio contact with Howland Island. They implement the only procedure available to them which will minimize the chance of having to land the aircraft in the sea: they proceed southeastward on a heading of 157 degrees. Supporting Evidence
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Hypothesis 2 The aircraft is landed successfully on the reef-flat at Gardner Island at low tide on the smooth stretch of coral just north of the S.S. Norwich City, the ship that ran aground there eight years earlier. Supporting Evidence
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Hypothesis 3 The aircraft’s radio is used to send distress calls. Transmissions continue for a few days. Supporting Evidence
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Hypothesis 4 Rougher seas and increased surf on the reef have forced Earhart and Noonan to abandon the aircraft which is now obscured from view at high tide. The castaways seek shelter from the sun in the dense bush inland and come upon a cache of provisions left behind by the rescuers of the Norwich City survivors eight years earlier. When search planes from the USS Colorado are heard overhead on the morning of July 9th Earhart and Noonan are unable to reach the open beach in time to be seen. If anything of the airplane was visible through the surf, its proximity to the Norwich City led the searchers to dismiss it as debris from the shipwreck. Supporting Evidence
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Hypothesis 5 Literally marooned on a desert island, Earhart and Noonan survive for a time but eventually succumb to any of a number of possible causes including injury and infection, food poisoning (some local fish are highly toxic), or simply thirst. Noonan dies not far from the site of their landing. His bones are later found and buried by the island’s first settlers. Earhart dies at a small makeshift campsite near the lagoon shore on the island’s southeastern side. Her remains are discovered there in 1940 by British authorities. Supporting Evidence
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Hypothesis 6 The airplane on the reef is destroyed by surf action and the debris is scattered “downstream” across the reef-flat, along the shoreline, and into the lagoon. During the island’s period of habitation (1938–1963) the colonists encounter, and in some cases recover and use, various bits of wreckage, but most of the debris is eventually swept through the main lagoon passage and deposited in the large sand shoal just inside the passage. Those components recovered by the colonists are mostly consumed in local uses such as fishing tackle and decorative items. Supporting Evidence All of the anecdotal and photographic evidence is chronologically and sequentially consistent.
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Hypothesis 6 Whatever now survives of NR16020 is either on the lagoon bottom or buried in the sandy shoal just inside the main passage. Some wreckage may have been pulled seaward from the original landing site and may rest on an offshore coral shelf. The apparent absence of wreckage in the shoreline vegetation at the west end of the island (as indicated by TIGHAR’s 1999 search) is probably due to earlier salvage activity by the colonists and the scouring action of significant weather events in subsequent years. Buoyant bits of wreckage may have wahed up anywhere along the lagoon shore and may still survive deep in the dense shoreline vegetation. More scraps of salvaged material used by the islanders almost certainly survives in the abandoned and overgrown village. The portions of Earhart’s skeleton that were found on the island in 1940 (a skull and several arm and leg bones) and taken to Fiji for examination in 1941 may still exist. The bones that were not found in 1940 (primarily the spine, ribs, half of the pelvis, hands and feet, one arm, and one lower leg) have probably now been consumed by the forces of nature. Noonan’s remains may be buried in one of the graves found on the western end of the island. |
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Before returning to Nikumaroro, several research projects need to be completed so that we can further validate (or, if need be, modify) the working hypothesis and maximize the expedition’s chances for success. Re-evaluation of the aircraft’s range and endurance. New information has made possible a much more detailed evaluation of the aircraft’s performance on its final flight. Especially in the light of recenty published speculation that the aircraft ran out of fuel at the time of the final radio transmission heard by the Itasca, it is important to establish what can and can not be said about the flight’s capabilities. TIGHAR is presently assembling a blue ribbon panel of independent experts to perform a new evaluation. Propagation analysis of the post-loss radio signals. Recent software advances make possible a highly credible computer analysis of the various transmissions suspected at the time as emanating form the lost aircraft. A team of TIGHAR volunteers has compiled a comprehensive list of the recorded incidents which will be databased and evaluated. It should be possible to know which alleged post-loss transmissions are almost certainly bogus and which are more credible. This technique has already shown the transmission heard by Nauru on the evening of July 2nd (described above) to be highly credible. Forensic imaging of historical photos.This hi-tech project has the potential for producing a photographic “smoking gun.” If the anomalous material visible on the reef at Nikumaroro in the 1937 and 1938 photos can be shown to be aircraft wreckage, there is only one aircraft that it could be. Air traffic in the region prior to World War Two is easy to document and only one aircraft is missing – Earhart’s. Verification and further analysis of how the western end of Nikumaroro “works.” Only recently have we come to have an understanding of how the shape of the main lagoon passage and the force of major weather events out of the west and northwest seem to create a venturi effect that greatly influences the distribution of any material caught up in it. We need to consult with experts in this field to learn more about where we should look. Continued analysis of artifacts recovered. We still have many avenues of research to follow in learning more from the artifacts we’ve recovered from the island. Only a few of the dozens of items collected have been conclusively identified. Examination of archival records and interview of former island residents in Tarawa. We know that there are official records in Tarawa that we’ve never seen and we’ve heard of former residents of Nikumaroro living in Tarawa who have interesting stories to tell (like the woman who says she was shown “the grave of a pilot”). Further efforts to find the bones in Fiji. There is much more that could be done to try to find a paper trail that could lead us to the bones. |
Assuming that on-going research continues to support the current hypothesis, the following search operations are contemplated for NIKU IIII. | |
A side-scan sonar and visual scuba search of the lagoon bottom just inside the main lagoon passage. | |
A sub-bottom profiling sonar search of the sandy shoal. | |
Excavation of sonar “hits” in the sandy shoal using an underwater archaeological suction dredge. | |
A hand-held metal detector and visual scuba search of the offshore ledge north of the shipwreck. | |
A detailed examination of Norwich City wreckage on the reef-flat in search of aircraft components that may have become hung up in the shipwreck debris. | |
Ground Penetrating Radar examination of the known grave and suspected grave on the island’s western end and excavation of the features if warranted. | |
Further archaeological survey fo the abandoned village. | |
Detailed examination of the 1996 Site. | |
At this
time, the Niku IIII expedition is scheduled for September 2001. |
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