So far, the
flight had gone relatively smoothly, and there was not a lot of activity
on the Itasca or Howland Island. Over the next five hours,
chaos erupts. Most investigators skim over the details of what happens
here, focusing upon the brief messages that Earhart provides:
- 1415GMT: Earhart voice
heard, but cannot make out information.
- 1515GMT: Earhart states
that she will listen on hour and half hour on 3105 kHz.
- 1623GMT: Earhart states
"Partly Cloudy"
- 1744GMT: Earhart wants
a bearing on 3105 kHz on the hour, will whistle in microphone,
about 200 miles out approximately, now whistling.
- 1811GMT: Earhart requests:
"Please take bearing on us and report in half hour. I will make
noise in mic -- about 100 miles out."
- 1912GMT: KHAQQ calling
Itasca we must be on you but cannot see you but gas is running
low been unable to reach you by radio we are flying at 1000 feet".
Another radioman states "Earhart on now says running out of gas
only 1/2 hour left can't hear us at all."
- 1928GMT: "KHAQQ calling
Itasca we are circling [?]
but cannot hear you go ahead on 7500 with a long count either
now or on the schedule time on 1/2 hour"
- 1930GMT: "KHAQQ calling
Itasca we received your signals but unable to get a minimum. Please
take bearing on us and answer 3105 with voice." Another radioman
reports this message as: "Amelia on again at 0800 [local time]
says hears us on 7.5 megs go ahead on 7500 again."
Based upon the
details provided in the radio transcripts and the summary reports
by Thompson, Black, and Cooper, along with the deck logs of the Itasca,
we can piece together a minute by minute chronology of events aboard
the Itasca and Howland Island. Doing so will be instructive
to uncover the errors in radio protocol and discipline on both parties
that ultimately contribute to the disappearance of Earhart and Noonan.
We will drop the use of footnotes, as it will be obvious to the reader
as to the source of original materials.
The three
radio transcripts were maintained by the Itasca radiomen,
headed by Radioman First Class Leo G. Bellarts, assisted by Radiomen
Third Class Gilbert E. Thompson, Thomas J. O’Hare, and William L.
Galten, and Radioman Second Class Frank Cipriani, who was on loan
from the USCGV Taney for this specific cruise. Bellarts assigned
responsibility for radio duties as follows: Bellarts to handle all
plane communications and logging of information, interface with
Commander and Officer of the Deck. Cipriani to man the high frequency
direction finder ashore, use transmitter to communicate with the
ship, keep a log of frequencies and bearings obtained from the plane;
O’Hare to handle normal point-to-point communications with Navy
and CG radio stations; Galten to handle ship’s direction finder
and to listen to 500 kHz when plane is within 1000 miles of the
Itasca, and Thompson to act as relief operator. In reality,
these responsibilities were scrambled during the last few hours
of the flight. According to the radio transcript logs, here are
the watch standing hours for Station 1 (point-to-point, referred
to as Itasca1), Station 2 (communications with plane, referred
to as Bellarts for raw log and Itasca2 as smooth log),
and Howland Island, beginning just before 0000GMT, July 2.
Local Time
|
GMT Time
|
Operator
|
1144/1 - 1557 |
2314/1 - 0327/2 |
Thompson |
1557 - 1733 |
0327 - 0503 |
O'Hare |
1733 - 1802 |
0503 - 0532 |
Cipriani |
1802 - 2006 |
0532 - 0736 |
O'Hare |
2006 - 2400 |
0736 - 1130 |
Galten |
0000/2 - 0158 |
1130 - 1328 |
Galten |
0158 - 0800 |
1328 - 1930 |
O'Hare
|
0800 - 0856 |
1930 - 2026 |
station not kept |
0856 - 1033 |
1328 - 2203 |
O'Hare |
1033 - 1550 |
2203 - 0120/3 |
Galten |
1550 - 2123 |
0120 - 0853 |
O'Hare |
2123 - 2359 |
0853 - 1129 |
O'Hare |
Local Time
|
GMT Time
|
Operator
|
1900/1 - 1950 |
0630/2 - 0720 |
Bellarts |
1950 - 2400 |
0720 - 1130 |
Thompson |
0000/2 - 0205 |
1130 - 1335 |
Thompson |
0205 - 0719 |
1335 - 1849 |
Bellarts |
0719 - 1035 |
1849 - 2205 |
Galten |
1035 - 1042 |
2205 - 2212 |
Bellarts |
1042 - 1155 |
2212 - 2325 |
Thompson
|
1155 - ? |
2325 - ? |
Bellarts |
? - 1559 |
? - 0329/3 |
Thompson |
1559 - 1737 |
32 - 0507 |
Bellarts |
1737 - 1803 |
0507 - 0533 |
Thompson |
1803 - 2020 |
0533 - 0750 |
Bellarts |
2020 - 2400 |
0750 - 1130 |
Thompson |
Local
Time
|
GMT
Time
|
Operator
|
2200/1 - 1000/2 |
0930/2 - 2130 |
Cipriani*
|
*transferred
to Howland at 0630GMT.1
|
1410GMT |
Itasca
bridge log states: "First contact Earhart but unreadable
thru static" |
1415
- 1418GMT |
Itasca1
records "Able hear Earhart at (on3105)", but Bellarts records
"Heard Earhart plane / but unreadable thru static". Black claims
that Bellarts heard "cloudy and overcast" in a monotone voice
through the loudspeaker. Further, Black claims that James Carey,
Associated Press, and H. Hanzlik, United Press, were present
and verified that the voice was Earhart's. |
1425GMT |
Itasca
sends message to USCG, San Francisco, stating that they heard
Earhart. |
1430
- 1435GMT |
Itasca
sends weather report on 7500 kHz (key) and 3105 kHz (voice). |
1458
- 1505GMT |
Itasca
sends weather report on 7500 kHz (key) and 3105 kHz (voice). |
1515GMT |
Earhart
broadcasts on 3105 kHz, voice. Bellarts states "Earhart heard
fone/will lissen on hour and half on 3105-sez she". Black claims
she said overcast, and Lt. Cooper is in the radio room at this
time. Itasca bridge log states: "Earhart heard said she
will listen on hour and half hour signals weak and fragmentary." |
1515GMT |
USS
Ontario leaves its guard station and heads back to Pago
Pago, apparently without direct approval by authorities. It
is believed that the Ontario did not hear or see Earhart,
and if so, must have left based upon the fact that she was well
past the half-way point of your journey and that the Ontario
was not needed any longer. But, if the Ontario did hear
or see Earhart, they left at a prudent time. Surprisingly, approval
for leaving the station came the following day from Naval Station
Tutuila. The Ontario was nearing its endurance limits,
primarily for food, and not fuel (coal) or water, based upon
the bridge logs. |
1528GMT |
Itasca
calls radio CG San Francisco, stating they heard from Earhart,
but unknown if Earhart hears them. Could they perform a radio
check on Itasca's 3105 voice? |
1530-1537GMT |
Itasca
sends weather on 3105 kHz on both voice and key. Also asks when
does she expect to arrive at Howland? Are you receiving our
signals? Please acknowledge at next schedule. |
1556-
1605GMT |
Sent
weather on 3105 kHz via both key and voice. |
1610GMT |
Itasca
contacts radio CGSF and Navy Radio Wailupe, Hawaii, but only
Wailupe hears Earhart, but cannot make anything out. |
1623-
1625GMT |
Earhart
on the air, Black states volume strength 1; Bellarts states
"Heard Earhart (Part Cldy)"; Itasca1 was working Radio Wailupe,
but "Earhart broke in on fone 3105 / nw ???? unreadable." |
1627-
1630GMT |
Itasca
sends weather on 3105 kHz on both key and voice. |
1656-
1705GMT |
Itasca
sends weather on 3105 kHz on both key and voice. |
1709-
1712GMT |
Itasca
sends letter A on 7500 kHz via key: "observing sked on 7500
KCS A's." No known schedule documents sending letter A's at
this time. |
1730-
1736GMT |
Itasca
sends weather on 3105 kHz on both key and voice. |
1740GMT |
Itasca
disembarks landing party, consisting of LCDR Baker, Capt. Neilson,
US Army, Lt. Cooper, and Black, along with several others, to
Howland. |
1742-
1745GMT |
Earhart
on the air. Bellarts states: "Wants bearing on 3105 KCS// on
hour// will whistle in mic About two hundred miles out// appx//whistling//nw."
Itasca1 states: "Earhart on 3105 nw / want bearing 3105 etc.
200 miles out." Itasca bridge log states: "Miss
Earhart reported position 200 miles from Howland and requested
bearings. Poor reception. Vessel began laying down heavy smoke
to assist Miss Earhart." Black states that volume is S3. Black
states that he is getting his information provided by the radio
room. The signal strengths are not recorded on the radio transcripts.
The only location of signal strength is denoted in Thompson's
Radio Transcripts, and Black's report is a verbatim copy of
Thompson's report. That raises the question as to where Thompson
obtained his radio signal strengths. |
1745GMT |
Itasca
breaks its radio schedule and broadcasts weather blind to Earhart
on 3105 kHz, voice, according to Howland Island. |
1747GMT |
Howland
Island states: "Picked up Earhart (using long antenna, S3, hardly
any carrier. Seemed overmodulated. Switched over to loop for
Bearing, S1 - 0. She stopped Transmission). Bearing Nil. 3105."
|
1750-1753GMT |
Itasca
radios Howland Island, tells them the latest information, and
requests that they take a bearing on Earhart on 3105 kHz. |
1800-
1806GMT |
Itasca
sends out letter A's on 7500, while listening on 3105 kHz as
well. |
1806GMT |
Itasca
calls Earhart on 3105 kHz, on voice. |
1811GMT |
Itasca
sends letter A's, asking Earhart to acknowledge on 3105 kHz.
By this time, the Itasca radiomen are seriously out of
radio schedule with Earhart; they must be frantic with the fact
that two-way communication has not been established by now. |
1812-1817GMT |
Earhart
comes back on the air. Itasca1 states: "Earhart on nw reception
fairly clr nw Wants bearing es [and] wnts rept in 1/2/ hr";
Bellarts states: "Pse [please] take bearing on us and report
in half hour--I will make moise [sic] in mic - abt 100 miles
out"; Howland Island reports: "(am using the D/F and receiving
set sparingly due to heavy drainage on batteries) (the batteries
are of low AM-Hour capacity) Earhart on the air, S4 [signal
strength 4], "give me a bearing" Earhart did not test for bearing.
Her transmission too short for bearing, static x5, her carrier
is completely modulated. Could not get a bearing due to above
reasons. 3105." Itasca bridge log states: "Miss Earhart
reported position 100 miles from island reception fair." All
three primary accounts basically agree with basic message, although
only Itasca records show that AE wants a report on the
bearing in one half hour. This does not make a lot of sense,
since it would require two-way communication established at
the time of her next scheduled transmission. An alternative
explanation is that she meant "on half hour," which would correspond
to the Itasca's next scheduled broadcast. However, since
the Itasca was using +11.5 time zone, it is now 0642-0647
local time, and to them on the half hour would be in 45 minutes.
Why would Earhart wait 45 minutes for a report on her bearing?
This scenario assumes that the Itasca radiomen have forgotten
that Earhart is using GMT time, rather than their own local
time. Another interesting point is that the actual letters stating
"abt 100 miles out" on Bellarts' raw radio transcripts is offset
from the rest of the text lines, suggesting a later addition.
This raises the speculation that the mileage was based upon
the radio operator's expectation of distance based upon the
signal strength. Thompson indicates the signal strength as level
4, as does Black. |
1820-1826GMT |
Itasca
communicates with Howland Island, asking them to provide the
information to LCDR Baker, now on the island. |
1830GMT |
Itasca
sending A's to Earhart on 3105 kHz. |
1835-1836GMT |
Itasca
sending A's to Earhart on 7500 kHz. |
1838-1842GMT |
Itasca
sending A's to Earhart on 3105 kHz, key. |
1842-1844GMT |
Itasca
sending A's to Earhart on 7500 kHz. |
1844-1846GMT |
Itasca
sending A's to Earhart on 3105 kHz, possibly interfering with
reception from Earhart at this time. |
1848GMT |
Itasca
broadcasts to Earhart on 3105 kHz that they cannot take a bearing
on 3105 kHz very well, please send signals on 500 kHz or would
you like to take a bearing on us? Go ahead. |
1849-1855GMT |
Itasca
sending A's to Earhart, 3105 kHz, voice: Go ahead on 3105 kHz. |
1855-1900GMT |
Itasca
sending A's to Earhart, go ahead, but no answer. DC (nickname
for Bellarts) now goes to 500 kHz D/F for manning that station. |
1901-1904GMT |
Itasca
sending A's, key, and voice on 3105 kHz. |
1905-1910GMT |
Itasca sending A's on key, 7500 kHz. Itasca is
now sending continuously on either 3105 or 7500 kHz, frantically
trying to elicit a response. |
1910GMT |
Earhart
on the air. Itasca1 states: "Earhart nw says she is running
out of gas, only a half hour left, cannot hear us at all; we
hear her and are transmitting to her on 3105 and 500 kHz same
time constantly." |
1911GMT |
Bellarts
record states that Itasca is sending A's via key on 3105
kHz. |
1912GMT |
Bellarts
record states: "KHAQQ clng Itasca we must on you but cannot
see u but gas is running low been unable to reach you by radio
we are flying at a 1000 feet." Note that Radio Station 2 (Bellarts)
is now out of sync with Radio Station 1 regarding the time of
reception of this message. The Itasca bridge log states:
"Plane position reported as near the island and gas running
low". This is the last message from Earhart that is useful for
reconstructing her flight, as from this point on, we can only
speculate as to the motions of the plane relative to Howland
Island. If this message is correct, then Earhart must have thought
that her journey is essentially complete in distance, covering
2223nm in 19 hours, 12 minutes, for an average speed over the
ground of 115.78knots, encountering a headwind component of
a little over 14 knots, averaged over the entire trip. |
1911-1916GMT |
Itasca
sends letter A's on 3105, 500 kHz on key; voice on 3105 kHz
stating we received your message, signal strength 5. |
1919-1927GMT |
Itasca
sends letter A on MCM, sending message on voice, all on 3105
kHz. |
1928GMT |
Earhart
on the air. Bellarts states: "KHAQQ clng Itasca we are circling
but cannot hr u GA on 7500 wid a lng count either nw or on the
skd time on 1/2 hour (KHAQQ S5, A3)." S5, A3 means signal strength
5, maximum, and voice transmission. Itasca1 does not record
this message. Itasca bridge log states: "Plane reported
as circling and requested vessel to transmit on 7500 KC for
bearing, reception very good." Black and Thompson reports state
that the signal strength was 5, and "in view of signal strength
it is believed Earhart was closest to Howland at this time.
It was about this time Itasca expected her to arrive."
Earhart's request for a long count on 7500 kHz now or on the
scheduled half hour makes a lot of sense: do it now, or in two
minutes, so she can obtain a bearing. From the Itasca's
perspective, they are interpreting it to mean now or in 32 minutes,
as they are on a half hour time zone. Fortunately, the radiomen
provide the signals immediately. Of interesting note and curiosity,
the original, raw radio transcript clearly indicates a type-over
for the word "circling." Computer enhancement of the underlying
word indicates that the original typed word was "drifting."
An aircraft in the air does not drift, so we speculate that
the radio operators likely misheard the exact wording that Earhart
used. We further speculate that Earhart said "listening." If
correct, the message makes a lot more sense: 'We are listening
but cannot hear you.' |
1929GMT |
Itasca
sends letter A's on 7500 kHz, go ahead on 3105 kHz. Howland
Island reports that its batteries are weak, and that it heard
a voice on 3105 kHz. |
1930GMT |
Itasca
sending constantly on 7500 kHz, and 3105 kHz, telling her to
go ahead on 3105 kHz and that we can hear her; stopping frequently
to listen. |
1930-1033GMT |
Earhart
is back on the air. Bellarts states: "KHAQQ clng Itasca we recd
ur sigs but unable to get a minimum pse take bearing on us and
ans 3105 wid voice / NRUI de KHAQQ lng dashes on 3105." Black
and Thompson state essentially the same information. The Itasca
bridge log states: "Plane reported receiving our signals but
unable to get a minimum for a bearing; good reception." Earhart
says she received the 7500 kHz signals, but could not obtain
a bearing on them. She asks Itasca to please take a bearing
on her, and answer with 3105 kHz with voice. She then sends
a series of long dashes on 3105 kHz. This message is the only
acknowledgement that Earhart received any signals from the Itasca,
and at this point, she understands that the Itasca can
hear her on 3105 kHz, as they understood her earlier instructions
to send signals on 7500 kHz. Of course, Earhart's direction
finder was not designed to obtain a bearing on 7500 kHz, so
it is reasonable to understand that she could not get a minimum.
|
1930-1934GMT |
Itasca
calls Howland Island, Howland reports no signals and impossible
to work. |
1935GMT |
Itasca
calls Earhart, stating that it has received her signals OK,
but that it is impracticable to take a bearing on 3105 kHz with
voice transmission. Do you receive this message, over? No response. |
This concludes
the third flight segment chronology. To summarize, Earhart is getting
closer to Howland, eventually arriving at what she thinks is the
approximate location, but due to a lack of two-way communication,
cannot get a bearing on Itasca nor can she get the Itasca
to get a bearing on her and transmit that information back.
The Itasca radiomen have abandoned all resemblance of a radio
schedule, as does Earhart, to a lesser degree. Earhart’s message
content does not indicate she is frantic yet, but indicates a growing
concern that she cannot hear the Itasca.
Let us review
for a moment the intended radio schedules. Earhart states that she
will broadcast at quarter past the hour, using GMT time zone. She
broadcast at times 1415, 1515, 1623, 1744, 1822, 1912, 1928, and
1930GMT. Only three broadcasts were out of schedule: 1744, 1928
and 1930GMT, with the last two as an attempt by Earhart to get Itasca’s
attention prior to their scheduled broadcast. The 1744GMT message
requested a bearing on her at approximately 200 miles range. Curiously,
what is missing is a 1715GMT transmission. Both Itasca1 and Bellarts
indicate both radio stations are listening on 3105 kHz, and that
no transmissions from the Itasca were being made. This suggests
that at 1715GMT, Earhart may have been at a distance without a bounce
path off the ionosphere for radio transmission at 3105 kHz, presuming
that she did transmit.
The radio
schedule for Itasca was for them to transmit letter A, call
sign, position on 7500 kHz on the hour and half hour, and to provide
voice on 3105 kHz either upon request or when Earhart is within
range. By 1415GMT, Itasca has begun to send weather information
on 3105 kHz, in addition to letter As on 7500 kHz. According to
the records, the times of transmission varied from 2 minutes before
to 6 minutes after the hour, sometime continuously, sometimes not
during the early hours. By 1800GMT, Itasca begins transmitting
either on 7500 and/or 3105 kHz nearly continuously, sometimes interfering
with its own ability to listen on 3105 kHz. Further, the radiomen
are using more and more Morse code on 3105 kHz, in the (correct)
belief that reception should improve at the airplane using code
vs. voice. Apparently, they believe Earhart can interpret Morse
Code at the nominal 10 words per minute rate previously provided
to the Shoshone during the March flight. We do know that
Capt. Manning was quite proficient in Morse Code, and that Earhart
and Noonan were not proficient.
The Itasca
radiomen are also beginning to become confused as to time zones.
Our interpretation is that they have forgotten or ignored Earhart's
request to maintain GMT time zones, and are instead using the half-hour
time zone, a remnant from their base in Honolulu, which is on +10.5
time zone.
A couple of
odd discrepancies appear from the content of Earhart’s messages.
First, at 1744GMT, Earhart reports that she is approximately 200
miles out from Howland, and at 1811GMT, reports that she is only
100 miles out from Howland. The time interval of 27 minutes to fly
100 nautical or statue miles seems unreasonable. Many previous Earhart
researchers have speculated that she had extremely powerful engines
installed beyond her Pratt & Whitney R1340 power plants. It
is more likely that the positions provided did not correspond exactly
to the times of the information provided, but were positions sometime
in the recent past. This concurs with our analysis of the Oakland
to Honolulu leg, and will be discussed later on. Also, between the
two time periods, it is probable that Earhart experienced the sunrise,
whereby Fred Noonan could obtain a sun-line and correct his longitude
estimates accordingly, accounting for the possible discrepancy of
distance.
Another
odd discrepancy is the report at 1912GMT that Earhart had only a
half hour of gas left. Only one radio operator stated this; the
other stated that gas was running low. We doubt the literal interpretation
of only 30 minutes of gas remaining, as Earhart is still on the
air at 2013GMT, nearly one hour later. It is more likely that she
is referring to the fact that gas is running low relative to her
reserve fuel. Lt. Cooper stated that a reserve of 20% is usually
required. Earhart stated in Last Flight that during her trip
from Oakland to Honolulu, “...we arrived in Hawaii with more than
four hours’ supply of gasoline remaining, which would have given
us over 600 miles of additional flying, a satisfactory safety margin.”
Based upon Kelly Johnson’s fuel consumption figures applied to Earhart’s
fuel load of 1100 gallons, the plane would have a nominal endurance
of 24 hours, 9 minutes. Given a reserve capacity of 152 gallons,
at 38 gallons/hour consumption rate, or four hours of reserve time,
or 20 hours, 9 minutes of non-reserve flight time. Thus, at 1912GMT,
Earhart would begin to become concerned about using her reserve
fuel. Interestingly, Thompson states that “The Army Air Corps report
computes her reserve gasoline as 7% or about 160 miles (one hour)
flying.”2 While this figure is inaccurate
and misleading, if Thompson believed it at the time, then it is
another reason for him to leave Howland long before the 24 hours
of total flight time endurance for Earhart.
Weather: During
this segment of the flight, weather information is more timely and
plentiful, albeit from a restricted area: around Howland and Baker
Islands, and to a limited degree around the USS Swan. Since
the Swan was located between Howland and Honolulu, she was
actually above the meteorological equator, so that wind direction
and speed has no bearing on winds below the equator, due to the
Coriolus Force acting at the Earth's surface. However, her sea state
condition can be used as an indication of storms at sea from any
direction, as can the Itasca’s measurements. The primary source
of weather information remains the Itasca bridge logs, the
weather reports sent by the Itasca radiomen to Earhart while
she was approaching Howland. Any the early morning wind measurements
aloft made at Howland no longer survive or were not made. According
to the Itasca bridge logs, winds were consistently out
of the east from 1330 to 2030GMT, mostly at force 2, except from
1830 to 1930GMT, when the winds were force 1. Using the USCG
Beaufort scale for bridge entries, force 1 winds are 7 knots
or less, and force 2 winds are 11.3 knots. During this period
of time, visibility ranged from somewhat less than 20 miles to
unlimited visibility, and cloud cover ranged from 20 to 40%.
Seas were calm and slight, with a moderate swell from the ENE,
indicating a fairly distant storm or consistent winds in that
direction. The Swan was
experiencing swell from the NE, sea conditions ranging from moderate
to heavy swell, indicating that the Swan was in closer
proximity to a storm than Itasca.
Bellarts saved
the weather broadcasts he sent to Earhart, and for the time following
1400GMT, here is the information the Itasca sent to Earhart:
Local Time
|
GMT Time
|
Visibility
|
Wind Dir
|
Wind Speed
|
Barometer
|
0158
|
1328
|
20
|
ENE
|
6
|
29.82
|
0228
|
1358
|
20
|
E
|
9
|
29.82
|
0330
|
1500
|
20
|
E
|
8
|
29.82
|
0403
|
1533
|
20
|
E
|
8
|
29.82
|
0503
|
1633
|
20
|
E
|
6
|
not
reported
|
0530
|
1700
|
20
|
E
|
6
|
not
reported
|
0700?
|
1830?
|
20
|
E
|
1
|
not
reported
|
0800?
|
1930?
|
20
|
E
|
8
|
not
reported
|
0900?
|
2030?
|
20
|
E
|
6
|
not
reported
|
At
1950GMT, Fleet Air Base, Pearl Harbor a weather forecast was sent
to the Itasca and Earhart, but it consisted entirely of information
regarding the weather around Hawaii.3
In summary,
the weather for Earhart's approach to Howland indicates good visibility,
winds aloft probably about 10 knots from the east, well below the
20 knots forecast the previous day by the Fleet Air Base. The actual
conditions surrounding Howland were described by Commander Thompson
of the Itasca some days after as unlimited visibility, with
a cloud bank to the NW quadrant, possibly 30 to 40 miles away.
|