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 on: August 12, 2018, 09:35:21 AM 
Started by Joe Cerniglia - Last post by Joe Cerniglia
I stated in a post yesterday that Nina Paxton's reporting of a latitude and longitude was "the only instance of map coordinates in the form of a possible latitude and longitude having been provided by a listener." I stand twice corrected. An unknown listener in Peru stated at an unknown time on July 10 that he heard Earhart say her position was "23 grados al oeste de la isla de Howland" (23 degrees west of Howland). The statement makes no sense and would be a distance of 1400 miles from Howland. His report is judged "not credible."

Then there is Ray Havens. Mr. Havens was also judged to be "not credible" in the radio signal catalog, mostly for low probability of signal reception at the time of day he listened. Havens also stated a latitude and longitude, the same coordinates that Nina Paxton stated on the undated typewritten page, titled The Call of a Courageous Lady, that the archival website grouped incorrectly with Paxton's July 30, 1937 letter to Walter Winchell. Mr. Havens, however, provided compass direction points, giving the position as 173 west longitude and 5 south latitude, whereas Mrs. Paxton provided only the numerical components of the coordinates. There exists a previous forum thread about Mr. Havens here:

The possibility exists that Mrs. Paxton cribbed her coordinates from the many contemporaneous news accounts that were circulating about Ray Havens' reception in the days following Earhart's disappearance.

The correlation between the two accounts of Havens and Paxton is one of those coincidences that had to be mentioned, with the appropriate caveats, as having received a passing glance. It would be really nice to have a third mention of these coordinates in a reception of higher credibility. Thelma Lovelace and Mabel Larremore came close but didn't save the documents in which they wrote the coordinates down.

Joe Cerniglia

 on: August 12, 2018, 09:29:44 AM 
Started by Ric Gillespie - Last post by Leon R White
In Les's post he says he's attached some pdfs of newspaper articles.  Were they attached?  And are newspaper articles of some unique truthfullness that would merit reading them, or are these just regular newspaper articles?

I can post them if you like but they're just well-known newspaper articles in which Earhart refers to Fred as "Captain Noonan", or "Captain Fred Noonan."  Les missed the point.  She never referred to Noonan as "The Captain."

Thanks, but don't bother.  "The Captain" and Tenille?

 on: August 11, 2018, 02:54:08 PM 
Started by Ric Gillespie - Last post by Joe Cerniglia
The Excel had a problem in uploading, so I am substituting a screen shot.
Joe Cerniglia

 on: August 11, 2018, 02:40:58 PM 
Started by Ric Gillespie - Last post by Joe Cerniglia
BY Les Kinney:
When Nina heard Amelia Earhart on the afternoon of July 3, 1937, she wrote down Amelia's words. "90 ******173 longitude and 5 latitude". If you look on a map, 5 degrees North latitude and 173 East longitude is close to Mili Atoll.
Leslie (Les) Kinney
July 25, 2018

Les Kinney is correct in saying that 173 longitude and 5 latitude may be interpreted as close to Mili Atoll. While Paxton's official status is currently "not credible" with regard to her ability to hear Earhart, the fact remains that this is the only instance of map coordinates in the form of a possible latitude and longitude having been provided by a listener. I therefore decided to put together a spreadsheet (attached) analyzing these coordinates.

A significant problem with Paxton's mention of "173 longitude, 5 latitude" is that it lacks compass headings. To avoid confusion, geographical numeric coordinates on a map should always be accompanied by compass headings (or plus and minus signs). In their absence, these numbers could be interpreted in 4 different ways, representing 4 different locations on a map.
a) 173 E, 5 N
b) 173 E, 5 S
c) 173 W, 5 N
d) 173 W, 5 S

I have illustrated these 4 different locations in an attached map, using Apple's Maps app. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website computes that point a) above is 108 statute miles SE of Mili Atoll. It is equally true, however, that point d) above is 107 statute miles ESE of Nikumaroro. Points b) and c) could best be described as open ocean, and not near any recognizable land mass that I can locate.

While these coordinates present intriguing possibilities as to a location, it seems to me that it is not possible to conclude definitively where on a map they should be located.  What is also true is that if these numbers represent a latitude and a longitude, as Ms. Paxton claimed, they can reasonably be inferred to represent no more than 4 locations, one of which is near Mili, and one of which is near Nikumaroro.

Joe Cerniglia

 on: August 11, 2018, 01:45:19 PM 
Started by Ric Gillespie - Last post by Joe Cerniglia
The schematic also shows connection points for connection to an antenna.  That could have been an antenna mounted in the radio cabinet, or an external antenna.  It's unknown what kind of antenna Paxton had.
One question that seems to me worth asking of Northwest Research Associates Inc., which has generously offered to review the reception probabilities pro bono, is: What if any impact would the length, type, and direction of a hypothetical antenna attached to the Philco 38-9 have on the 1/1015 odds that Nina Paxton could hear Earhart? Does this unknown variable affect the confidence interval of the reception probability in a quantifiable way?

Betty Brown told me in 2010 that her dad had strung a 60-foot aerial antenna from the radio to the garage to a telephone pole in the block lot behind her house. This seemed to enhance the reception capabilities of her radio, or at least her dad seemed to think it would. Of course, Betty's radio's tuning frequency range was superior to Nina Paxton's Philco.

 on: August 08, 2018, 02:28:42 PM 
Started by Matt Revington - Last post by Ric Gillespie
Nothing in the book should be taken to be endorsed by TIGHAR.  You were not aware of the supposed curling iron because no such artifact has been accessioned or researched by TIGHAR.

 on: August 08, 2018, 02:11:53 PM 
Started by Matt Revington - Last post by Greg Daspit
I just finished reading it and enjoyed it.
I liked the descriptions of the island. Part of the island had a leafy plant you could eat? Possible ancient habitation?
There are sections after each chapter that discuss the basis for including some of the artifacts and history into the fictional story. These sections are on grey pages to help separate them. I liked this format.
There are some artifacts I was not aware of. For example, what may be the remains of a hair curling iron that were found at the Seven Site.

 on: August 08, 2018, 11:53:49 AM 
Started by Matt Revington - Last post by Ric Gillespie
Thanks Matt.  Yes, the palm prints first appeared in Meier's 1937 book "Lion's Paws - The Story of Famous Hands."
Dr. Jantz used the palm prints to measure Earhart's "2-4 Digit Ratio." (You can Google it.)

"There is now a fairly extensive literature that makes the case that it marks the level of prenatal sex steroids. Males have a lower ratio because of higher prenatal testosterone. The palm print of AE has the male pattern, digit 4 longer than 2. It is not the best palm print you could hope to have, but the greater length of digit 4 is pretty obvious. So I think that what it implies about her prenatal hormonal environment could also explain both her behavior and a skeleton that deceived Hoodless."

He ultimately decided not to address her digit ration in his 2018 paper.

 on: August 08, 2018, 11:42:13 AM 
Started by Matt Revington - Last post by Ric Gillespie
Tom wrote the novel as an individual and not as a representative of TIGHAR.   His imagined portrayal of events is entirely his own.

 on: August 08, 2018, 11:02:03 AM 
Started by Matt Revington - Last post by Matt Revington
Part of a history lesson for school kids on the Library of Congress include AE's palm prints from the collection of Nellie Simmons Meier a palm reader

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