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 1 
 on: July 09, 2020, 07:54:29 AM 
Started by Ric Gillespie - Last post by Scott C. Mitchell
Thanks for the background information on AE's routine of keeping notes.  Reminds me of the lost ships' logs of the British ships Erebus and Terror, trapped in the ice in the Northwest Passage with the loss of all crew.  There was lore among the Inuit in the vicinity that the ships's books and papers, and presumably the ships' logs, were stored in a cairn before the crew abandoned the ships for their doomed march south.  Just a few notes from either EA or those ships could validate much of what we can only speculate on now.  The officers did leave a standard one-page ships report that was recovered, but it raised more questions than it answered, which may be likened to AE's sparse radio transmissions. / Scott #3292

 2 
 on: July 08, 2020, 03:20:22 PM 
Started by Randy Conrad - Last post by Randy Conrad
Ric,
 
  Thanks for replying back on my post...but I do have a question in relation to the last part of your post.....   We also know that she hit the advanced LOP where she thought Howland was, but it wasn't;t there ("We must be on you, but cannot see you.")  We know she then ran north and south on the LOP.
Could 158 miles be the distance she ran south from where she thought Howland should be?  That's something Noonan could calculate.  If they hit the LOP 158 nm from Gardner, they hit it 192 nm southeast of Howland, which puts them right where Bob Brandenburg's propagation model gives Itasca the best chance of hearing Earhart at Strength 5 on 3105.


Actually, to be honest you lost me in the transaction. First of all...when you say advanced LOP...are you talking something that Noonan would have to do... say by sextant or map coordinates or whatever. Or is there an instrument on her flying gauges that indicates this. Also, you'll have to draw a diagram in reference to the 158 nm from Gardner and the 192 nm southeast of Howland. Definately, lost me there.

 3 
 on: July 08, 2020, 06:07:57 AM 
Started by Randy Conrad - Last post by Randy Jacobson
The author makes the mistake that when AE broadcasts her position, that is her current position.  I have shown over and over again that this is false.  On her trip from Oakland to Honolulu, where we have good navigational fixes and times, her broadcasts of positions are always latent.  That is, positions given were the last taken prior to her broadcast and are not contemporaneous by anywhere from 15 to 35 minutes late. 

Nearly everyone makes this mistake.  I have written this up and documented it somewhere on the TIGHAR web.

Randy

 4 
 on: July 08, 2020, 12:55:21 AM 
Started by Randy Conrad - Last post by Randy Conrad
Have you seen this Ric?

https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/discussions/navigation-to-howland-island

 5 
 on: July 06, 2020, 10:15:49 AM 
Started by Randy Conrad - Last post by Scott C. Mitchell
That reasoning sounds plausible.  Question - if they didn't see Howland when they reached the LOP, why would AE still consider that location a relevant data point?  Answer:  if the cloud cover was casting island-impersonating pancake shadows on the ocean surface, then AE might well believe they were still at the right location, right on top of the island, just unable to pick the island out from the cloud shadows.  Therefore, the distance from that location to their castaway site is still relevant to searchers. / Scott #3292

 6 
 on: July 06, 2020, 09:13:25 AM 
Started by Randy Conrad - Last post by Ric Gillespie
This past weekend I was sitting here wandering what the distance would be if you were on the line 157/337 and the next minute we hear Amelia broadcasting 158/338 according to Betty's notebook.

Betty did not hear Amelia say 158/338.  Betty heard her say "158 miles."  It would appear to have no relationship to "We are on the line 157 - 337" which are compass directions, not miles.

Little did I know you answered that question back in 2010 with the answer of 6 miles. My question is if this be the case...Travelling at 1000 feet from the surface of the water...can you see clearly six miles in either direction?

Yes, assuming the visibility is good.

If so...how long would it take to go those six miles?

It depends on how fast the airplane is going.  At 130 kts it would take the airplane about 3 minutes to go six nautical miles. At 100 knots it would take about 3.5 minutes.

 
but does the Electra have the capability to glide if either engine may fail. If this be the case, how long could she keep the Electra gliding at 1000 ft above the water

If one engine quits she can continue to fly.  If both engines quit the airplane will glide. I'm not sure what rate of descent the Electra would have at it's best glide speed but I would guess it's about 300 ft/min.  If so, from 1000 feet she would be on the surface in about 3 and a third minutes - but I don't see what this has to do with anything.

However, your mention of "158 mi." in Betty's Notebook got me thinking.  Betty said the reference to 158 miles was among the first things she heard and was part of other things Earhart was saying before Betty started transcribing.  Why would Earhart say 158 miles? We know she was trying to describe where she was but apparently did not know the name of the island.  We also know that she hit the advanced LOP where she thought Howland was, but it wasn't;t there ("We must be on you, but cannot see you.")  We know she then ran north and south on the LOP.
Could 158 miles be the distance she ran south from where she thought Howland should be?  That's something Noonan could calculate.  If they hit the LOP 158 nm from Gardner, they hit it 192 nm southeast of Howland, which puts them right where Bob Brandenburg's propagation model gives Itasca the best chance of hearing Earhart at Strength 5 on 3105.

 7 
 on: July 06, 2020, 12:16:30 AM 
Started by Randy Conrad - Last post by Randy Conrad
Ric,
  Hi! This past weekend I was sitting here wandering what the distance would be if you were on the line 157/337 and the next minute we hear Amelia broadcasting 158/338 according to Betty's notebook. Little did I know you answered that question back in 2010 with the answer of 6 miles. My question is if this be the case...Travelling at 1000 feet from the surface of the water...can you see clearly six miles in either direction? If so...how long would it take to go those six miles? Also, we may or may not have talked about this...but does the Electra have the capability to glide if either engine may fail. If this be the case, how long could she keep the Electra gliding at 1000 ft above the water Love to hear your answers...thanks

 8 
 on: July 03, 2020, 07:57:42 AM 
Started by Friend Weller - Last post by Friend Weller
83 years....we're still watching and waiting. 

RIP Amelia and Fred.

 9 
 on: July 01, 2020, 08:07:51 AM 
Started by Ric Gillespie - Last post by Ric Gillespie
Another useful tidbit via David Billings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgru1mKoHW4  shows Sir Hubert Wilkins arrival in Canada and includes a brief shot of cn1065 that gives us a close look at the patches and fueling ports on the port side of the aircraft.  The patches are "scab patches" like the one on NR16020 but they appear to be riveted only around the edges to the internal structure that originally supported the windows.  No additional stiffening was needed.  The patch on NR16020 was larger and replaced a non-standard window.

 10 
 on: June 30, 2020, 09:20:02 AM 
Started by Ric Gillespie - Last post by Ric Gillespie
I was not aware of “The Last Explorer.”  I just ordered a copy."

"The Last Explorer" is a biography of polar explorer Sir Hubert Wilkins.  He did participate in the search for Levinevski but in a PBY, not the Electra.  There are only a few paragraphs about the search and no mention of the Electra.

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