Delayed in Lae

Lae is the second-largest city in Papua New Guinea. It is 2,556 statute miles from Lae to Howland. Earhart and Noonan arrived at Lae at 3 PM (1500 local, 0500 GMT) on June 29, and left at or near 10 a.m. on July 2.

Gary LaPook, Forum, 5 Dec 2011.

I think that everyone has always assumed that Lae was a sleepy little backwater airport, maybe one or two planes a day. It turns out that in the '30s Lae was one of the busiest airports in the world! The airplanes flying in and out of Lae carried more air freight than ALL THE OTHER AIRLINES IN THE WORLD PUT TOGETHER!

This was due to the gold rush in New Guinea which could only be carried out with air transport since there were no roads.

Time and Weather

"The main cause of her delay at Lae was because they awaited a satisfactory weather report and an accurate check on time signals for setting the chronometer."

Randy Jacobson:

At 2015GMT [0615 local], June 29th, Earhart sent this message to Itasca:

Plan midday takeoff here [June 30 local time]. Please have meteorologist send forecast Lae–Howland soon as possible. If reaches me in time will try leave today otherwise July 1st. Report in English, not code, especially while flying. Will broadcast hourly quarter past hour GCT. Further information later.

Fifteen minutes later, Earhart sent a telegram to George Putnam:

"Radio misunderstanding and personnel unfitness probably will hold one day. Have asked Black for forecast for tomorrow. You check meteorologist on job as FN must have star sights."

Earhart is concerned about the weather forecasts (she hasn’t received any that are worthwhile), and is clearly concerned either about the radio protocol arrangements or about the time signals needed for Noonan’s calibration of his chronometers.

Much discussion by various researchers as to the meaning of "personnel unfitness" has been put forth, without any consensus.

"Personnel unfitness"

Gore Vidal made this claim in the WGBH American Experience show:

"Well, just the night before the final flight, she reported in and they had a code phrase, 'personnel problems,' which meant Noonan was back drinking. And my father said, 'Just stop it right now and come home,' and G.P. agreed and said, 'Come back, abort the flight, forget it, come home.' And then she said, 'Oh, no,' and she said, 'I think it’ll be all right,' something like that. So you may put that down to invincible optimism or it may have been huge pessimism."

Matters of fact

• The phrase was used in a telegram on 29 June [U.S. date], not a telephone call.
• Putnam never said that he had spoken with Ameila when she was in Lae. Amelia had called Putnam from Surabaya on 24 June. "George included only the end of the conversation in his book, stating that it was 'the last conversation I had with her.'"
• Ric Gillespie says that there was no phone call from Earhart to Putnam while she was in Lae: "Amelia did not talk to her husband from Lae. She did telephone a travelogue story to the New York Herald Tribune [on 30 June], as she had from nearly every stop on the world flight."
• "Putnam was in California and communicating with his wife by telegram."
• Earhart's telephone calls to the Herald Tribune newspaper syndicate were routinely received and transcribed in the New York office.
• "Personnel unfitness" may have been a typo or a euphemism for "personal unfitness," meaning that

1) Earhart herself was feeling unwell;

2) both Earhart and Noonan were suffering from exhaustion or some other malady;

3) Noonan alone was sick or incapacitated.

Arguments from the facts

• The possibility that "personnel unfitness" might refer to drinking or a hangover cannot, of course, be eliminated by recognizing that there are other possible interpretations; nor can the other possible meanings be arbitrarily set aside by the unsupported suspicion that Noonan was drinking irresponsibly on 2 July.
• Whatever the "personnel unfitness" was that was given as a reason to delay takeoff on 30 June (local), one might reasonably think that the "unfitness" was remedied by takeoff 51.5 hours later on 2 July (local); if the "unfitness" had not been remedied, then, if Earhart was behaving rationally, she ought not to have taken off on the fatal flight. All "coulda, woulda, shoulda" arguments are, of course, very weak, and admittedly this is that kind of argument. A stronger version of the argument is this: if we take it as a fact that one or both personnel were unfit on the 30th (local), it does not follow logically that one or both were unfit three days later. We may note the non sequitur without having to lean too heavily on a belief in the soundness of Earhart's judgment about herself or Noonan.

The Brines Letter

TIGHAR was given a copy of a letter from Honolulu by Russ Brines on 3 August 1937 to another journalist: "If authentic, it contains the first contemporaneous reference we’ve seen to Noonan being a heavy drinker and also provides some interesting insights into the attitude of at least some members of the press toward Earhart’s flight and disappearance."

My cynical theory, and that of many other lads around here, is that Noonan found Lae a much too interesting town for anyone's good. Privately, and only between us, I know Fred; know that he is -- or was -- one of the country's best aerial navigators and one of its most accomplished six-bottle men, having cut his teeth on the foresail stays of an old square-rigged ship. Nursing such a developed thirst, he probably went for broke in Lae which, as you know, is an old-fashioned pioneer town with airplanes instead of covered wagons to cater to the gold rush.

Therefore, if this is true, the chances are that Amelia had him poured into the plane and decided to do the naviqating herself. Well, she can't -- couldn't -- navigate for sour apples. ...

The heart responded nicely to the fact the story was run under a Honolulu dateline, but it was hard on the nervous system, because we were supplying virtually all of the news. Except the screwy reports of amateur operators who persistently heard "voices" when we were trying to sleep. I bounced out of bed half a dozen times each night, sleepily trying to check up up on some new report that had Amelia doing everything but a fan dance in comparative safety on some South Seas atoll.

Observations on the Brines Letter:

• Brines was not in Lae, on 2 July 1937.
• He did not personally witness Noonan drinking in Lae, but only imagined it as a possible explanation of the loss of the aircraft.
• He has not talked with ("interviewed") anyone in Lae who did see Noonan drinking irresponsibly.

July 1: Eventful day

Excerpts from the Chater Report

Failed direction finding test

"At 6.35 a.m., July 1st, Miss Earhart carried out a 30 minute air test of the machine when two way telephone communication was established between the ground station at Lae and the plane. The Operator was requested to send a long dash while Miss Earhart endeavoured to get a minimum on her direction finder. On landing Miss Earhart informed us that she had been unable to obtain a minimum and that she considered this was because the Lae station was too powerful and too close. ...

Time check OK

"During the rest of the day constant watch was kept for the reception of time signals with no result until 9 p.m. when the Sydney signal was heard though with considerable interference. Meanwhile the Lae Operator had advised Rabaul of our lack of success in picking up a time signal owing to local interference. At 10.20 p.m. a message was heard from all Australian coastal stations requesting all shipping to keep silence for a period of ten minutes during the transmission of the Adelaide time signal which was being awaited by Miss Earhart. Complete silence prevailed during this period and a perfect time signal was received by Captain Noonan, and the machine chronometer was found to be three seconds slow. On July 2nd a further time signal was received from Saigon at 8 a.m. when the chronometer checked the same as the previous night."

Weather OK

On July 1st all weather reports received were dated June 30th. Several radios received on July 1st were taken away by accident by Miss Earhart (both original and copy) and consequently we have no copies available.

Miss Earhart did not receive any weather reports on July 2nd prior to her departure.

Links

• The Forecast Weather.
• A Lae photo gallery.