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[dave burrell]

Dave B said

First you need a storm,

No one is saying a storm took the Electra off the reef, it was the rising tides and wave action, not a storm.

actually chris a storm has been suggested at least several times. I do not remember all the posts off hand. I do remember when analyzing the Paxton Post loss transmission, rated credible, Miss Paxton remembers AE saying "its getting dark" and also "something about a storm and that the wind was blowing, “will have to get out of here,” “we can’t stay here long.” and the tighar commentary to that transmission was "perhaps a squall".
 So a storm has been suggested as a possibility by Tighar.
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog.html

Without a storm, then I find the lack of a plane a week later even more dubious. So you are suggesting normal tides gradually pushed it closer and closer to the edge? Fred and Amelia with gas left simply watched the plane slip over the reef without wrecking it as close to the shore? Even trashing it in the trough, it would have been better than allowing it to slip away.Their only shelter, their only HUGE shiny marker, and it was allowed to gradually inch it's way down a 100 yard wide reef to the edge? 
A storm that struck suddenly I could imagine possible, but normal tide action and FN did nothing? A guy with experience in previous life and death decisions just watched the normal tide action inch the plane closer to its doom?
I don't know about that, but I guess either is speculation.
Back to the point, they had time to remove supplies, none identifiable has been found, and also none were spotted by the flyers as being relevant.

[dave burrell]

Gary seems correct. The life raft was thought to be aboard by Putnam. It was thought to be aboard by the navy, we have newsreels showing Amelia with the Life raft.

No.  Per her husband the life raft was on board the airplane......http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/47954191?searchTerm=mrsputnam%27sliferafthawaii&searchLimits=  (see also Gary's links)

Further to the speculation of others, that life raft provides a 1.) mattress/bed on hard ground or 2.) part of a shelter or 3.) (there is no 3) or 4.) a water container or whatever

Seems we are arguing among ourselves, those that agree a life raft was on board. Kind of odd.
I will stick with my comments that George "thought" the life raft was on the plane, therefore I will accept his word.
Since only the deceased pilot and navigator were actually on board, nobody but AE and FN can say with 100% certainty it "WAS" on the plane.
Yes, I agree evidence suggests the life raft was on the plane.

[Bill Roe]

Since only the deceased pilot .....................

How do you know she's deceased?  Perhaps she's Gillespie's Aunt and has been living secretly with him?

[dave burrell]

Since only the deceased pilot .....................

How do you know she's deceased?  Perhaps she's Gillespie's Aunt and has been living secretly with him?

True. She would be an old gal but it's possible she is living in Ric's basement

[Chris Johnson]

Dave B said

First you need a storm,

No one is saying a storm took the Electra off the reef, it was the rising tides and wave action, not a storm.

actually chris a storm has been suggested at least several times. I do not remember all the posts off hand. I do remember when analyzing the Paxton Post loss transmission, rated credible, Miss Paxton remembers AE saying "its getting dark" and also "something about a storm and that the wind was blowing, “will have to get out of here,” “we can’t stay here long.” and the tighar commentary to that transmission was "perhaps a squall".
 So a storm has been suggested as a possibility by Tighar.
http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Research/ResearchPapers/Brandenburg/signalcatalog.html

Without a storm, then I find the lack of a plane a week later even more dubious. So you are suggesting normal tides gradually pushed it closer and closer to the edge? Fred and Amelia with gas left simply watched the plane slip over the reef without wrecking it as close to the shore? Even trashing it in the trough, it would have been better than allowing it to slip away.Their only shelter, their only HUGE shiny marker, and it was allowed to gradually inch it's way down a 100 yard wide reef to the edge? 
A storm that struck suddenly I could imagine possible, but normal tide action and FN did nothing? A guy with experience in previous life and death decisions just watched the normal tide action inch the plane closer to its doom?
I don't know about that, but I guess either is speculation.
Back to the point, they had time to remove supplies, none identifiable has been found, and also none were spotted by the flyers as being relevant.

From the main TIGHAR site Rising tides and surf had swept the Electra over the reef edge.

[dave burrell]

Well chris what can I say. Tighar once said the plane was pushed into the lagoon also, and once had the plane on the other side of the island as well near the shoe site. So by rising tide or storm, Tighar feels it went over the edge.
The theory sort of changes over the years. Quoting what Tighar thinks depends on what year the question is asked.
The point remains, no identifiable plane or personal objects have been located after two decades.
I think it time to call off the land search in my opinion.

[Chris Johnson]

Dave,

I agree TIGHAR have made many claims and have had many ideas but this is the LATEST based on the most recent research.  It takes time and patience to read all of the available research and get it into some kind of order.  The Lagoon theory is so 'yesterday' but with new evidence could be the 'new tomorrow'

The impression I get from this forum and other sources is that the island has hardly been touched and even the seven site has yet to be fully explored.

[dave burrell]

I respect your opinion Chris if you feel more work can be fruitful on the Island. I will defer to Dr.King in 2001 saying there comes a point of diminishing returns at some point. At what point?
After multiple expeditions there, and considering all the human activity besides Tighar, and considering what has been found so far, I feel that point has been reached.

[Chris Johnson]

we'll ide love the chance to do a bit of coral rubble diggings, just in case anyone has missed something 

[Don Dollinger]

I will defer to Dr.King in 2001 saying there comes a point of diminishing returns at some point. At what point? After multiple expeditions there, and considering all the human activity besides Tighar, and considering what has been found so far, I feel that point has been reached.

You have personally been to Niku and participated in digs and searches and have searched enough of the Island and sea floor so that you are convinced that there is nothing of further value to be found there?  I guess I have been wasting my time thinking that the Niku theory was even a possibility.

LTM,

Don

[Bill Roe]

I will defer to Dr.King in 2001 saying there comes a point of diminishing returns at some point. At what point? After multiple expeditions there, and considering all the human activity besides Tighar, and considering what has been found so far, I feel that point has been reached.

You have personally been to Niku and participated in digs and searches and have searched enough of the Island and sea floor so that you are convinced that there is nothing of further value to be found there?  I guess I have been wasting my time thinking that the Niku theory was even a possibility.

LTM,

Don

I think, Don, that he's saying that if you have a haystack and you need to find a needle in that haystack.........

So you spend 25 years researching, researching, researching
then hire hay experts
then hire needle experts
then make 10 searches through that haystack, looking for that needle - with all your knowledge gained from your research and with your experts...

You've invested millions and millions of Dollars, and years of time and effort....

....you haven't found the needle or any remnant of that needle  -  it just, flat out ain't there.  Is it?

[dave burrell]

I will defer to Dr.King in 2001 saying there comes a point of diminishing returns at some point. At what point? After multiple expeditions there, and considering all the human activity besides Tighar, and considering what has been found so far, I feel that point has been reached.

You have personally been to Niku and participated in digs and searches and have searched enough of the Island and sea floor so that you are convinced that there is nothing of further value to be found there?  I guess I have been wasting my time thinking that the Niku theory was even a possibility.

LTM,

Don

Here you go again Don. You misread what I said.

quote-"I think it time to call off the LAND search in my opinion."

That is what I said. And no matter the outcome of the searches it is not true that you have wasted your time pondering Amelia's fate on Niku.
If Tighar and Ric Gillespie never find a postive proof, on land or ocean,
It does not make the Tighar theory wrong. Just unproven.
The difference is huge. Some of Einstein's theories were not proven until after his death. He was not wrong, nor did he waste his time.

[john a delsing]

I will defer to Dr.King in 2001 saying there comes a point of diminishing returns at some point. At what point? After multiple expeditions there, and considering all the human activity besides Tighar, and considering what has been found so far, I feel that point has been reached.

You have personally been to Niku and participated in digs and searches and have searched enough of the Island and sea floor so that you are convinced that there is nothing of further value to be found there?  I guess I have been wasting my time thinking that the Niku theory was even a possibility.

LTM,

Don

Here you go again Don. You misread what I said.

quote-"I think it time to call off the LAND search in my opinion."

That is what I said. And no matter the outcome of the searches it is not true that you have wasted your time pondering Amelia's fate on Niku.
If Tighar and Ric Gillespie never find a postive proof, on land or ocean,
It does not make the Tighar theory wrong. Just unproven.
The difference is huge. Some of Einstein's theories were not proven until after his death. He was not wrong, nor did he waste his time.

   I agree, and I might add that even if the Electra is found at the bottom of the ocean, hundreds of miles from Gardner, I will still be proud that I was a member of TIGHAR team and participated in this search, even in my small way, because there was more than enough “ Gardner Events ” that had to be investigated in a scientific manner. I, and many other members accepted that challenge, entered the arena, and gave it our best shot, which is all that can be asked.

[C.W. Herndon]

"I think it time to call off the LAND search in my opinion."

Picture 1 below shows the "seven site" and how much area has been cleared and searched there. Compare it to the beach shown on the right for a little scale.

Picture 2 shows what the "green area" around the seven site looks like on the ground.

This area is the only part of the island that has been extensively searched. By comparing the "seven site" to the area entire island, shown in picture 3, how much of the island would you guess has been searched? One percent, five percent? Maybe, but that, in my opinion, is not a very large sample on which to make a decision to "call off" anything.

It may be time to search somewhere else but that is not my decision to make, and since I have not been there, one I am not qualified to make.

[Gary LaPook]

"I think it time to call off the LAND search in my opinion."

Picture 1 below shows the "seven site" and how much area has been cleared and searched there. Compare it to the beach shown on the right for a little scale.

Picture 2 shows what the "green area" around the seven site looks like on the ground.

This area is the only part of the island that has been extensively searched. By comparing the "seven site" to the area entire island, shown in picture 3, how much of the island would you guess has been searched? One percent, five percent? Maybe, but that, in my opinion, is not a very large sample on which to make a decision to "call off" anything.

It may be time to search somewhere else but that is not my decision to make, and since I have not been there, one I am not qualified to make.

But don't forget that the PISS people examined a lot more of the island and cleared areas for planting coconut palms and they did not report finding any life rafts, parachutes or any other stuff that can be traced to Eahart.

gl