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Author Topic: Fresh sheet of paper  (Read 14767 times)

Tom Swearengen

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Fresh sheet of paper
« on: July 26, 2012, 11:51:07 AM »

Alot has transpired since the Washington symposium. Niku 7 has concluded, and the results are being analyzed. Some of our esteemed members see to have other thoughts.
So----does anyone have any new thoughts on the disappearance?
Tom
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2012, 01:10:47 PM »

My position still stands, there is aircraft wreckage on that reef. Whether they have been able to locate it again is another matter along with, what plane and whose was it. 70 + years is a long time to be hung up there and, the conditions were worse than even I imagined, don't expect to see too much aircraft real estate left, just bits.
IMHO of course
This must be the place
 
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John Joseph Barrett

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2012, 01:57:36 PM »

I agree with Jeff. I think the hypothesis is still valid, that they did land and survive for some time, and that the plane washed off of the reef. Where its wreckage is at present remains to be seen. I do believe that the mystery is solvable, hopefully through some of the new ROV footage.  LTM- John
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2012, 06:38:29 PM »

I still want to give them time to look at the data.
Not sure if it is new thought but consider all reefs in 1937 may have been different since sea level was about 6" lower then. Therefore some thoughts in no particular order:
1. A slight alteration of the latest hypothosis where the landing was on the North side of island instead of the South. But still West enough for prevailing currents to pull some debris around to the South side.
2. Landed on a McKean reef, sent radio signals for 5 days (still within area of Pan Am and Baker radio detection), then the plane, with Amelia still in it, passed out or thinking it would wash inland , got washed off. The plane floated close to Gardner before sinking. Amelia made it to the Gardner shore with just a few items that floated in boxes or bags. Fred drowned or was left behind on McKean.
edit:Here is a link showing prevailing currents and a map with radio detection plots and McKean
http://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks/2010Vol_26/whereelectra.pdf
3971R
 
« Last Edit: July 26, 2012, 06:50:17 PM by Gregory Lee Daspit »
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Malcolm McKay

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2012, 11:07:57 PM »

I offer another purely hypothetical scenario, and I stress hypothetical because as we all know I have a quite serious reluctance to accept the validity of much of the cited physical evidence, however in fairness it is one that bears consideration.

The Electra ran out of fuel and came down at sea and sank. Either Earhart and Noonan or both of them made it into the life raft which eventually drifted ashore at Nikumaroro. The survivor lasted long enough to die on the island which explains the skeleton, and also the lack of any wreckage so far found - it might explain possible personal items like the freckle cream and the compact. Those being in a bag hastily grabbed as the plane sank.

However I stress that that is highly conjectural because the skeleton is missing and the later reinterpretation of it from Hoodless' notes cannot be confirmed, and the items like the freckle cream, shoe parts etc. cannot at present be shown with any confidence to have belonged to  Earhart alone, as distinct from any other visitor or inhabitant of the island. It does however explain the lack of aircraft wreckage (the native reports are of dubious value, to say the least), and the very weak state of a survivor who is unable to attract the attention of the Navy searchers. It leaves out the post-loss radio messages, none of which are highly convincing - simply because of the admitted frauds and hoaxes, one out all out until proved otherwise.

That would put the wreck in very deep water, possibly to the north west of the island because of prevailing winds which would push the raft towards the island. Highly conjectural and not my favourite scenario.   
« Last Edit: July 26, 2012, 11:12:43 PM by Malcolm McKay »
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2012, 05:19:14 AM »

I threw this out there, not to undermine TIGHARS efforts. Quite the contrary. But as some of our members have noted, we have found little evidence of the Electra ---SO FAR. Could mean that it is where we havent looked. Could be exactly where we've looked, and unrecognizable.
Just looking for some ideas, until Discovery releases its findings.
Tom Swearengen TIGHAR # 3297
 
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2012, 06:59:14 PM »

That would put the wreck in very deep water, possibly to the north west of the island because of prevailing winds which would push the raft towards the island. Highly conjectural and not my favourite scenario.

Maybe look more north east instead of north west based on currents from this map.
http://www.maps.com/map.aspx?pid=15982
More towards McKean island
3971R
 
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2012, 07:27:06 PM »

Could be exactly where we've looked, and unrecognizable.
Just looking for some ideas, until Discovery releases its findings.

I agree and was thinking it may be a good idea to make some small shapes out of concrete, drop them into similar terrain and see how close the AUV gets to showing that shape on sonar. Maybe even make a shape like a radial engine. See what that shape looks like on sonar, then use it to help look at footage they collected. They could do this off the coast of Hawaii. Maybe find an old radial engine drop it and do a quick test before boxing up the AUV
All of the examples of side sonar I have seen are of big ships. I saw one of a German sub found off the east coast the other day. It would be interesting to see what the AUV can do with small engine size pieces in rocky terrain. Seems like if they had some examples of the same scale it would help train their eyes
3971R
 
« Last Edit: July 28, 2012, 07:50:03 PM by Gregory Lee Daspit »
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Malcolm McKay

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2012, 08:57:29 PM »

Maybe look more north east instead of north west based on currents from this map.
http://www.maps.com/map.aspx?pid=15982
More towards McKean island

Yes - entirely possible.
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Andrew M McKenna

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2012, 08:58:38 AM »

Interesting story about the U-Boat discovery.

Nice to know TIGHAR isn't the only group out there that is persistent, these guys have been at it for a while.

"The U-550 was found Monday by a privately funded group organized by New Jersey lawyer Joe Mazraani. It was the second trip in two years to the site by the team, some of whom had been searching for the lost U-boat for two decades."

They mowed the lawn with side scan sonar covering an area of 100 square miles to find an object that is 252 ft long.  In comparison, what we've been able to cover with side scan is pretty small, and we're looking for a much smaller object.  We've only just begun in relative terms.

Andrew

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Bill Roe

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2012, 12:55:29 PM »

... but Lord help us I hope we find proof somewhere LONG before such an extended search; ..........

LTM -

I can respect that.  Her family needs closure.   ;)
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2012, 04:21:15 PM »

Jeff I agree. The search for the U boat is a great example of a needle on a haystack. The search for Liberty Bell 7 is similar. Liberty Bell was in really deep water--12000 feet I recall.
We are really just beginning to understand underwater search technology, and lets face it. Finding the Electra, or parts of it, is a small target. I liken it to locating PT109. Water depths different, and terrain definately different. But----thise searchs help us prepare for the tough one---finding the Electra---whereever she lies.
Tom Swearengen TIGHAR # 3297
 
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Malcolm McKay

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2012, 06:48:25 PM »


Good question, Tom, and some good notions here I think.  In the end, I agree with Andrew that we've hardly scratched the surface at Niku, despite all the blood, sweat and tears.  I think more land search and an even more aggressive sea-search are in order - to be followed in time by a more extended sub-sea search beyond reef if possible. 


The area around where the Arundel settlement was is one that springs to mind - probably highly disturbed by later coconut planting but it is close to the Norwich City wreck which is a beacon for searchers. The underwater search needs to be very wide - the aircraft if it was intact if it was washed off the reef fringe would not just sink directly but would probably sink in a falling leaf pattern as its wings gained lift from the water. That could carry it out further and deeper with less damage than people assume. 
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Tom Swearengen

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2012, 07:07:39 PM »

Malcolm----we all may be right. Alot more land searches on Niku, closer to Camp Zero, just might turn up something. Your theory on the sinking of the Electra has some merit. We know that its there somewhere. Intact, probably not; but some major compoenents, maybe. Just havent found them yet ( or did we?)
At this point, I dont think anything is off the table, other than the Star Trek tractor beam theory. We didnt get that until the 1960's.  :o
Tom Swearengen TIGHAR # 3297
 
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Malcolm McKay

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Re: Fresh sheet of paper
« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2012, 08:28:58 PM »


At this point, I dont think anything is off the table, other than the Star Trek tractor beam theory. We didnt get that until the 1960's.  :o

That's what they want you to think  ;D
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