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Author Topic: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities  (Read 24333 times)

Ed Rosales

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Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« on: July 04, 2012, 09:07:38 PM »


When you find evidence of an equally competent (i.e., expensive) production that fooled people for more than hour, you will have destroyed the evidentiary value of the notebook.

We know there were two March of Time episodes.  We know that they had plenty of cues (such as commercials, voice overs, music) that pretty firmly identified them as radio drama.  You must find one that lacked such framing and that lasted a good deal longer (i.e., cost more money in air time).

I understand this. I had referred to the WOTW broadcast, which aired a little over a year after AE disappeared to show that at least one radio drama was broadcast without the cues that identified it as radio drama. Interestingly there were "warnings" given during that particular broadcast, but many people simply missed them and over reacted. This doesn't prove that Betty was listening to a radio drama, but the odds of her hearing a transmission from AE are highly remote. However, lets start with what's possible and what isn't. Has it been attempted to transmit and receive a signal on the same frequency between Nikumaroro to St Pete, Fl. ?? If this can be successfully done, can you even consider that it's plausible for Betty to had heard AE.

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The tide rises and falls on the reef.  If the airplane was there, there is no reason to think it was immune to the kind of storm surges that have reduced the Norwich City to scraps.

No one is arguing this, but it does seem to sound very much like a drama when you consider "Knee deep water".  If the water was knee deep inside the aircraft, it was impossible to transmit. And it would had been highly improbable to transmit for long if the plane was surrounded by knee deep water, as the prop on the right engine would had been dangerously close to the water, not even considering any surf action.

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That is a researchable question.  Go do the work and let us know what you find.

I'll see what I could find here in the Tampa Bay area.

Ed
« Last Edit: July 04, 2012, 09:11:11 PM by Ed R »
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John Ousterhout

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2012, 10:27:13 PM »

Ed asks "... Has it been attempted to transmit and receive a signal on the same frequency between Nikumaroro to St Pete, Fl. ??"
Short answer is "NO".  Long answer is "lots of low power transmissions by amateurs have successfully been received at equal and greater distances on equivalent frequencies".  That's part of the attraction of HAM radio - the ability (with luck and acquired skill) to communicate around the globe.  What Amelia had was equal to many of the current (and past) HAM radio transmitters.  What Betty had was truely a HAM receiver, with an antenna that was comparable to many HAM radio rigs of the time.  These conditions NO NOT guarantee successful reception, even today with our current level of knowledge, so the idea that Betty successfully received a transmission from AE is not likely, but not impossible.
It does not require trying to duplicate the transmitter and receiver to evaluate the chances of Betty receiving a signal from AE.  We know about how often those conditions naturally occur, but cannot accurately conclude if they might have happened in 1937.  There were too many unknowns, making it impossible to truely duplicate conditions now.  Trying to transmit from Gardner and receive in Florida is a nice idea, and a competant HAM operator could guarantee success, given time, but you might not like the analysis of the likelihood of the conditions that were required to make it happen.  We cannot prove those conditions existed in July, 1937, so a demonstration in 2012 conditions proves nothing to authorities that would need to be convinced.  Sad to say, such a demonstration would also be interpreted by the uneducated masses as "proving" that AE must have transmitted the 'Betty notebook record' from Niku.
Sorry,
Cheers,
JohnO
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2012, 03:12:31 AM »

Ed asks "... Has it been attempted to transmit and receive a signal on the same frequency between Nikumaroro to St Pete, Fl. ??"
Short answer is "NO".  Long answer is "lots of low power transmissions by amateurs have successfully been received at equal and greater distances on equivalent frequencies".  That's part of the attraction of HAM radio - the ability (with luck and acquired skill) to communicate around the globe.  What Amelia had was equal to many of the current (and past) HAM radio transmitters.  What Betty had was truely a HAM receiver, with an antenna that was comparable to many HAM radio rigs of the time.  These conditions NO NOT guarantee successful reception, even today with our current level of knowledge, so the idea that Betty successfully received a transmission from AE is not likely, but not impossible.
It does not require trying to duplicate the transmitter and receiver to evaluate the chances of Betty receiving a signal from AE.  We know about how often those conditions naturally occur, but cannot accurately conclude if they might have happened in 1937.  There were too many unknowns, making it impossible to truely duplicate conditions now.  Trying to transmit from Gardner and receive in Florida is a nice idea, and a competant HAM operator could guarantee success, given time, but you might not like the analysis of the likelihood of the conditions that were required to make it happen.  We cannot prove those conditions existed in July, 1937, so a demonstration in 2012 conditions proves nothing to authorities that would need to be convinced.  Sad to say, such a demonstration would also be interpreted by the uneducated masses as "proving" that AE must have transmitted the 'Betty notebook record' from Niku.
Sorry,
Yep hams can do that with their two thousand watt transmitters and directional rotating Yagi multi-element beam antenna that are bigger than the entire Electra. But Earhart had only a 50 watt transmitter and for the Betty reception operating on the 4th harmonic so putting out less than a watt on that frequency into a piece of wire stretched to the tail and without the extensive ground system needed by hams to work in conjunction with their antennas. Even Brandenberg only gives it a one in one-and-a-half million possibility.

gl
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John Hart

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2012, 01:26:14 PM »

Thanks, think I will leave it to prove the oft made error of a reciprocal for everyone to remember.  We always lamented "math in the cockpit" and adding/subtracting 180 from a number was usually the extent of a fighter pilot's capability.  Thankfully I went where Hal (our flight control computer) told me to go and AE went (hopefully) where FN told her to.  But we knew enough to "trust but verify" and I frequently found the value of the 60-1 rule, the feet per second of various ground speeds, and did my fair share of "math in the cockpit" to make sure I was heading SSE (157) vice NNW (337).  Also depended on a good wingman (and played that role myself) to keep from making the inevitable mistakes.
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2012, 10:02:00 PM »


Yep hams can do that with their two thousand watt transmitters and directional rotating Yagi multi-element beam antenna that are bigger than the entire Electra. But Earhart had only a 50 watt transmitter and for the Betty reception operating on the 4th harmonic so putting out less than a watt on that frequency into a piece of wire stretched to the tail and without the extensive ground system needed by hams to work in conjunction with their antennas. Even Brandenberg only gives it a one in one-and-a-half million possibility.

gl
I am attaching some QSL cards showing some of my contacts across the pacific, that boom antenna sure works well.

gl
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John Ousterhout

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2012, 11:29:06 PM »

gl sez:"Yep hams can do that with their two thousand watt transmitters and directional rotating Yagi multi-element beam antenna that are bigger than the entire Electra. But Earhart had only a 50 watt transmitter and for the Betty reception operating on the 4th harmonic so putting out less than a watt on that frequency into a piece of wire stretched to the tail and without the extensive ground system needed by hams to work in conjunction with their antennas. Even Brandenberg only gives it a one in one-and-a-half million possibility."
I'd like to point out that hams can also obtain very long distance transmissions/receptions on very low power, when conditions are right.  They don't need two thousand watt transmitters.  For one example, a ham operator in Finland heard a commercial AM transmission from Indiana, a distance of more than 4000 miles, transmitting with just 5 watts.  The signal only lasted moments, but long enough to get a station identification (something to keep in mind if you're ever lost and need help - mention who you are a LOT).  These were rare conditions and an experienced operator, but it proves the point.
There are also occasionaly low power "DX" contests, which challenge ham operators around the world to successfully contact some distant location using low power transmissions, sometimes very low.  Again, to succeed you need skill and luck.  The conditions allowing trans-pacific transmissions with just a few watts output and a simple wire antenna are very rare, compared to what is needed when you've got 2000 watts and a big directional antenna.  That rarity is reflected in the analysis of Betty's possible reception of signals from AE - it is highly unlikely, most of the time, but not quite impossible.
Cheers,
JohnO
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2012, 11:42:45 PM »

a ham operator in Finland heard a commercial AM transmission from Indiana, a distance of more than 4000 miles, transmitting with just 5 watts.  The signal only lasted moments, but long enough to get a station identification (something to keep in mind if you're ever lost and need help - mention who you are a LOT)
Are you saying that a commercial station put out an am signal of only 5 watts? What commercial station was that? Most put out 50,000 watts. O.K. I read your link, that is an amazing story. But, the signal came through for only a few seconds, just 18 minutes after  local sunset in Indiana with "grey line propagation." As the world turned, the sunset line moved and the signal went away. Five watts is a lot more power than in the 4th harmonic of Earhart's and I am sure that the antenna at the radio station in Indiana was a whole lot bigger than the Electra's

mention who you are a LOT) and your location a LOT.

The QRP (low power) long distance contacts are on CW (Morse code) not AM or SSB. CW goes a lot longer on low power, especially compared to AM.

gl
« Last Edit: July 06, 2012, 12:07:36 AM by Gary LaPook »
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John Ousterhout

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2012, 01:31:14 AM »

gl sez:" But, the signal came through for only a few seconds, just 18 minutes after  local sunset in Indiana with "grey line propagation." As the world turned, the sunset line moved and the signal went away."
Yup, I'm glad you picked up on that. The same thing would have been happening during an early evening listening period in Florida.  The example in the link shows that it is possible, in rare occasions, to pick up a signal at very low power from great distances, for a short span of time, when conditions are just right.  That's why I find Betty's notebook entries interesting, but not materially helping solve the mystery of AE's disappearance.  They were unlikely (but not impossible) to have been received for more than a minute or two, and very, very unlikely (but not impossible) to have been received for hours, even fading in and out!  I've spent some time trying to make sense of Betty's entries, but cannot find anything that is useful to solve the mystery.  I won't throw it out as a potential clue, but it isn't necessary to support the hypothesis that AE landed somewhere in the Phoenix group and was able to transmit for a few days afterwards - the record of DF'd signals by professional operators provides enough data to form the hypothesis, and does not need Betty's notebook.
Cheers,
JohnO
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2012, 11:00:20 AM »

I would like to see more of Betty's notebook.

What proof is there that Betty was actually listening to a shortwave signal other than Brandenburg's need for that to be true in order to support his harmonic theory?

The introduction to the relevant pages of the notebook says, "A 15 year old girl – whom we’ll call 'Betty' for now – was living in St. Petersburg, Florida in the summer of 1937. One afternoon in July – the exact date is not known – at about 3 p.m. Betty was sitting on the floor in front of her family’s radio console. She liked to listen to music and kept a notebook in which she jotted the words to her favorite songs, made notes of current movies and drew pencil sketches of glamorous people. She also liked to listen to the 'short wave.' Her father had erected a long wire antenna – perhaps 60 feet in length – across the  back yard from the house to a pole near the street. Betty could routinely pick up stations all over the world. "This particular afternoon she was 'cruising' across the dial in search of anything interesting when she came upon a woman’s voice, speaking in English and obviously quite upset. Betty listened for a while and was startled to hear the woman say, 'This is Amelia Earhart. This is Amelia Earhart.'"
I understand that this is human testimony, and therefore not "proof" in the strict sense of the word.  When you invent your time machine and can go back and watch historical events like this for yourself, you will have all the "proof" you could desire.  Until then, there is nothing to do in dealing with human testimony other than to judge the credibility of the witnesses. If you think they are reliable, ... oh, wait--you're a lawyer.  You know about the issues related to credibility of witnesses.  So you should know better than to demand a form of "proof" that testimony can't give.  ::)
It is a simple request that I make. If she was in the habit of listening to shortwave broadcasts then she should have notes in her notebook that supports that and, if they are there, adds further credence to her claim. If all she has is local music in her book then it tends to disprove that she was in the habit of listening to shortwave and makes it more probable, that on this occasion too, she was listening to a local broadcast, not shortwave. Providing a notebook with lots of shortwave broadcasts documented would provide strong evidence to support her story. There is a standard jury instruction in California that if a person could produce stronger evidence but chooses not to do so that the jurors should distrust the weaker evidence. This is just common sense. If you are playing poker and a guy says he has a royal flush and reaches for the money and you ask him to show his cards and he refuses then he doesn't get to pick up the money. Showing his cards would be strong evidence and if he won't show them then you, quite sensibly, distrust his weaker evidence, his verbal statement.

It might be that her notebook will support her story, let's just see it.

gl
« Last Edit: July 08, 2012, 12:09:21 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2012, 04:46:09 PM »





The habit of listening is not the habit of writing down what you listened to.
Maybe she only kept a written record that time because she heard “This is Amelia Earhart” and realized the importance, and during the other times she listened, there was not anything as important to write down.   

Like the importance of writing down the songs she heard?

gl
« Last Edit: July 17, 2012, 04:12:39 AM by Gary LaPook »
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C.W. Herndon

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2012, 05:19:09 PM »

Not only did I read the link, I have seen the 1960 film at least twice. I have not read the book.

We had a short wave/am radio set when I was growing up too. My brother and I listened to all of the Sat. morning kid programs on it and many of the night time programs as well.

I still have the set in my basement.
Woody (former 3316R)
"the watcher"
 
« Last Edit: July 06, 2012, 05:57:12 PM by C.W. Herndon »
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richie conroy

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2012, 06:35:03 PM »

Excellent post Adam  :)

Tighar have done the most they can to prove the artifacts belong to Amelia and Fred

Those naysayers who disagree and say they could belong to anyone ?

can they prove they didn't belong to the lost flyer's, Doubt it.

as for the notebook, with or without it Tighar would still be were they are today.

if it said they are on gardner then it would be questionable ?

TIGHAR have not proved in the sense of establishing provenance that they belonged to either Earhart or Noonan. If they had the whole search would be over right now and the history rewritten.

I say that the naysayers have established just a good a case for each artifact to have belonged to people other than Earhart or Noonan as to the contrary. Richie I am quite neutral in this matter - you are allowing your desire to believe that these things to belong to the pair overwhelm your objectivity.

If TIGHAR come up with the much sought Electra wreck on this trip then that will be the thing that settles it - not these artifacts which are of questionable provenance.

were in Betty's notebook does it say Amelia or Fred said they landed at Gardner island ?

and were does it state that Tighar are riding on Betty's notebook being true to prove they were there ?

I think Betty's Notebook is just another piece of the evidence, no more no less than the bones file ?

it don't prove a Niku landing, it don't disprove it ?

also have u got the names of possible other people who used "freckle cream or hand lotion" on Gardner to backup naysayers claims ?
We are an echo of the past


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Gary LaPook

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2012, 09:46:06 PM »


"If all she has is local music in her book then it tends to disprove that she was in the habit of listening to shortwave and makes it more probable, that on this occasion too, she was listening to a local broadcast, not shortwave"
Gary, from your previous statement above you seemed to say ...I think Bruce explained the varied interest of a young girl better than me.

Then you asked:
"Like the importance of writing down the songs she heard?" My answer is no. Its not like the imprtance of writing down songs she heard.
So now I ask, Do you understand the context of why I said she wrote down what Amelia said because it was important? Or are you now asking if writing down songs important to her while listening to the local radio is the same importance as writing down something important to authorities that she heard in her shortwave listening?
Just produce the whole notebook. It may have lots of notes where she mentioned listening to shortwave broadcasts from far away and, if there are such notes, then it strengthens her story so why not produce it?

gl
« Last Edit: July 17, 2012, 01:49:12 PM by J. Nevill »
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2012, 10:40:27 PM »

...Just produce the whole notebook. It may have lots of notes where she mentioned listening to shortwave broadcasts from far away and, if there are such notes, then it strengthens her story so why not produce it?

gl

Maybe because there is nothing but her private thoughts in the rest of her book. I don't think her private pages are for me or Tighar to release.
3971R
 
« Last Edit: July 17, 2012, 01:55:56 PM by J. Nevill »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Betty's Notebook - alternate broadcast possibilities
« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2012, 10:55:01 PM »



Maybe because there is nothing but her private thoughts in the rest of her book. I don't think her private pages are for me or Tighar to release.
O.k. redact anything that she wants to keep private. She shouldn't have any problem with releasing pages about listening to the radio. She "opened the door" by selectively releasing part of her notebook so the "rule of completeness" allows us to demand the entire document, you can't just pick something out of a document that supports your side without allowing the other side to see the entire document.  If she won't produce the entire document then I'm sticking with jury instruction 203.
gl
« Last Edit: July 06, 2012, 11:00:19 PM by Gary LaPook »
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