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Author Topic: Did Earhart panic?  (Read 38637 times)

Ric Gillespie

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Did Earhart panic?
« on: February 19, 2012, 10:27:37 AM »

Quote
"Maybe she meant the reserve" and as you typed those words you knew that it is as contrived as the old "the dog ate my homework" excuse, created to try to explain away this "inconvenient truth" because it doesn't fit your theory.

No Gary, I don't 'know' that it is 'contrived' at all - my best understanding of what I read there says that what you have concluded is far from certain - that's the point.


LTM -
The other radio operator, Leo Bellarts, who logged "BUT GAS IS RUNNING LOW"  also said:

Earhart’s Voice: “The last time we heard her voice it was so loud and clear that you could hear her outside the radio shack. We heard her quite a few times, but that last time, it sounded as if she would have broken out in a scream if she hadn’t stopped talking. She was just about ready to break into tears and go into hysterics, that’s exactly the way I’d describe her voice, I’ll never forget it”.

Sounds like somebody running on fumes doesn't it, not somebody with a large fuel reserve left in the plane. I have missed instrument approaches and have had to divert to an alternate and I never went into hysterics because I DID HAVE A FUEL RESERVE to use on the way to the alternate. What about you, Jeff, did you ever get hysterical after you missed an approach and had to go to your alternate, using your fuel reserve?

ITASCA Radio Operators: “During the flight, the ITASCA radio operators were getting disgusted with her for not staying on schedule and just hanging up after just a few words. She apparently didn’t listen for us at all. She’d call, come on and just say, the weather’s overcast and then just hang it up, not go ahead. She never tried to establish contact until the last - the last quart of gas she had. ..."

Looks like Bellarts also interpreted Earhart's statement that she was out of gas, not that she had some reserve of fuel left. The other people on the scene also interpreted her words the same way. The captain immediately recalled the shore party and they were aboard only 30 minutes after her last transmission and the ship was underway an hour and a half after that at 2210 Z, less than two hours after her last transmission at 2013 Z.

This is another "standards of evidence" question.  Bellart's description is from an interview he did with Elgen Long on April 11, 1973 - 36 years after the event.  Anecdotal recollections of events many years in the past are not reliable. 
The question of whether Earhart sounded panicked or hysterical in the last radio transmission heard by Itasca was addressed early on.  A rumor that Earhart had been heard to scream was the subject of May 16, 1938 letter from the Commandant of the Coast Guard to Department of Treasury Ass't Secretary Gibbons (attached).  We found the letter in "Misc. Correspondence" at the archive of the Naval History & Heritage Command in Washington.  No explanation why someone drew a big X on both pages.
As you see, the Commandant quotes an October 18, 1937 from Commander Thompson.  Thompson wrote that he was "personally present in the radio room during the last hour she was on the air and heard all of her transmission, as she was coming in very clearly on the loudspeaker."   ....  "I can assure you personally that she did not scream and even though she was apparently under a tremendous strain, she seemed to be definitely removed from any idea of hysteria."

In an August 10, 1937 letter to his wife, Itasca XO Frank Kenner wrote:
"I heard her last broadcasts myself. She realized too late that she was in trouble, then she went to pieces. Her voice clearly indicated that fact, by the desperate note in her transmissions."

So the best available contemporaneous evidence suggests that Earhart's voice in her last transmission clearly reflected "tremendous strain" and "desperation" but not "ready to break into tears and go into hysterics" as Bellarts claimed 36 years later.

Nobody ever came up with the "fuel reserve" interpretation until TIGHAR conveniently invented it more than 50 years after the event to support their theory.

Gary, that is not true. TIGHAR didn't invent anything.  It was widely accepted at the time of the 1937 search that the plane should have had enough fuel to fly for at least 24 hours. 
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2012, 11:15:36 AM »


Ric
 "It was widely accepted at the time of the 1937 search that the plane should have had enough fuel to fly for at least 24 hours. "

Wasn't that based on  1200 gallons of fuel?  With the 1100 gallons they had on board when they left Lae (Chater, Collupy(sp?)) wouldn't that mean that their endurance would be 22 hours? i.e. arrival Howland at 2200 (GCT), 1000 AM Howland, 1030 AM Itasca.?
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Chris Johnson

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2012, 11:36:24 AM »

Another question and the TIGHAR hypothysis backs it up is - did AE after having an initial 'panic attack' pull herself together with the help of FN to succesfully navigate to and land on one of the Phoenix group, specificaly Gardner Island?

It is quite natural to panic as this is part of the flight or fight mechanism that the human race uses so well.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2012, 11:48:39 AM »


Sorry about the ambiguity in last post about arrival Howland.
What i meant was, they had fuel enough to get there as late as 2200 GCT and  they "got there" (we must be on you ...) at 1912 GCT.  that leaves 2 hiours 48 minutes endurance left.

That's if her fuel burn was 50 gallons per hour.
With a burn rate of 40 gallons per hour the endurance would be 27.5 hours, and with 45 gallons per hour it would be 24.44 hours.

She had enough fuel, endurance to leave the area of Howland just after her last radio transmission at 2025 GCT, and fly the 3 hours to Gardiner (404 statute miles at  133 mph)
Period, end controversy   hehe
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LTM   Harry (TIGHAR #3244R)
 
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richie conroy

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2012, 11:56:29 AM »

at what distance away from howland, could u be for them to register ur signal at S5
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2012, 12:31:30 PM »

I think Chris makes a good point. Whether she had a panic attack or not, something happened and they ended up somewhere.

I also thought it was determined they had the fuel reserves.
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Irv
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2012, 04:07:12 PM »




This is another "standards of evidence" question.  Bellart's description is from an interview he did with Elgen Long on April 11, 1973 - 36 years after the event.  Anecdotal recollections of events many years in the past are not reliable. 
The question of whether Earhart sounded panicked or hysterical in the last radio transmission heard by Itasca was addressed early on.  A rumor that Earhart had been heard to scream was the subject of May 16, 1938 letter from the Commandant of the Coast Guard to Department of Treasury Ass't Secretary Gibbons (attached).  We found the letter in "Misc. Correspondence" at the archive of the Naval History & Heritage Command in Washington.  No explanation why someone drew a big X on both pages.
As you see, the Commandant quotes an October 18, 1937 from Commander Thompson.  Thompson wrote that he was "personally present in the radio room during the last hour she was on the air and heard all of her transmission, as she was coming in very clearly on the loudspeaker."   ....  "I can assure you personally that she did not scream and even though she was apparently under a tremendous strain, she seemed to be definitely removed from any idea of hysteria."

In an August 10, 1937 letter to his wife, Itasca XO Frank Kenner wrote:
"I heard her last broadcasts myself. She realized too late that she was in trouble, then she went to pieces. Her voice clearly indicated that fact, by the desperate note in her transmissions."

So the best available contemporaneous evidence suggests that Earhart's voice in her last transmission clearly reflected "tremendous strain" and "desperation" but not "ready to break into tears and go into hysterics" as Bellarts claimed 36 years later.



Actually that 1938 memorandum actually adds support to Bellarts' later statements since it shows that Earhart's mental state was in question, not 30 years later, but at the time of the events. This shows that Bellarts did not just come up with it at a latter date. If you leave out the words "panic" and "hysteria," the description in the memo of Earhart's voice at the end supports my point that she was not sitting on a large reserve of fuel but was expecting the engines to go quiet at any moment. The sound of her voice could be described, fairly accurately, by Bellarts in the way that he did (just his choice of words,) we are just splitting hairs here.

Regarding the "big X," I have that memo on microfilm along with a different version without an "X" so it is possible that the memo you have is just a draft and is not the final version.

gl
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 04:08:55 PM by Gary LaPook »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2012, 04:48:34 PM »

Actually that 1938 memorandum actually adds support to Bellarts' later statements since it shows that Earhart's mental state was in question, not 30 years later, but at the time of the events.
No it doesn't. Waesche (the Coast Guard Commandant) and Thompson were trying to quash rumors about Earhart's "mental state," not support them.  As Thompsom wrote: " ... even though she was apparently under a tremendous strain, she seemed to be definitely removed from any idea of hysteria." 
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2012, 06:13:55 PM »

Ric,

Thanks for that information and the guidance on applying it - that makes sense and the conclusion you state is sensible. 

I can trust that much more than singling out what Bellarts had to say so long after the fact.  As I recall you've personally experienced the effect of delayed recall from interviewing others - and shared it openly, even if it was disappointing that more positive evidence didn't come from it (Emily's recollections on the plane wreck at Gardner).  That is the fundamental principle that gives TIGHAR so much credibility in my book - thanks for that.

There is little to question about the aircraft's range or endurance - we have the numbers - as you note others had in 1937, and as Harry notes.  Good enough for me.

LTM -

Good points Jeff.  TIGHAR and Ric are using multiple sources of evidence while Gary is latching onto one interpretation.  As far as delayed recall is concerned I am sure it's a defense Gary uses in court and I'm sure knows how to counter when this defense is used. I'm sure Gary knows what he is doing. Throw enough crap at the barn wall and some will stick. Maybe in court but not in this forum.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2012, 11:44:13 PM »

Actually that 1938 memorandum actually adds support to Bellarts' later statements since it shows that Earhart's mental state was in question, not 30 years later, but at the time of the events.
No it doesn't. Waesche (the Coast Guard Commandant) and Thompson were trying to quash rumors about Earhart's "mental state," not support them.  As Thompsom wrote: " ... even though she was apparently under a tremendous strain, she seemed to be definitely removed from any idea of hysteria."
Sure, Thompson was trying to quash those rumors but by doing so admits that they existed at the time and that Bellarts did not just dream it up 30 years later. And the description in the memo and in Kenner's letter, "then she went to pieces," show that Earhart sounded like a person about to run out of fuel, not someone with a large fuel reserve. That is my point, that the Kenner, Thompson and Bellerts statements support the logged transmission "BUT GAS IS RUNNING LOW" and "SEZ RUNNING OUT OF GAS ONLY 1/2 HR LEFT." 

Also, nobody disputes that Earhart actually said "1/2 hour left," Thompson included that information in the message he sent out that morning at 1015, only one and a half hours after her last transmission.  (attached)

gl

gl
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 01:03:18 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2012, 07:35:44 AM »

Sure, Thompson was trying to quash those rumors but by doing so admits that they existed at the time and that Bellarts did not just dream it up 30 years later.

Bellart's wasn't dreaming anything up.  He was telling a story he had told probably a thousand times and, like all oft-told stories it had evolved to fit the teller's agenda.  To Leo Bellarts, Amelia Earhart was an emotional, arrogant, incompetent woman who got herself lost despite the heroic best efforts of the Itasca's men. 

And the description in the memo and in Kenner's letter, "then she went to pieces," show that Earhart sounded like a person about to run out of fuel, not someone with a large fuel reserve.

If Earhart had the 24-hour range she was expected to have and which she should have had based on the 1,100 fuel load and Kelly Johnson's recommended procedures, at 08:55 local time (2025Z) - the apparent actual time of the last transmission heard by Itasca (see Last Words) - she had ballpark three and a half hours of fuel left.  Hardly what you'd call a "large reserve" in her situation.

Thompson says, "...towards the end I could distinctly notice an inflection of tension coming into [her voice] and a decided increase in pitch as though she was talking under a great deal of stress or emotion."  She was worried - real worried - and with good reason, but to say that the reported tone of her voice somehow shows that she was about to run out of fuel is more than a bit of a stretch.

That is my point, that the Kenner, Thompson and Bellerts statements support the logged transmission "BUT GAS IS RUNNING LOW" and "SEZ RUNNING OUT OF GAS ONLY 1/2 HR LEFT."

I agree that Kenner and Thompson's accounts support Galten's log "BUT GAS IS RUNNING LOW".  When you're lost in the middle of the Pacific with three and half hours of fuel remaining, gas is definitely running low.  O'Hare's "SEZ RUNNING OUT OF GAS ONLY 1/2 HR LEFT" is clearly a mistake, either by O'Hare or by Earhart, because she was still in the air an hour later.  I wrote about O'Hare's log entry at length in Finding Amelia (pages 95-6).

Here's what Ballarts had to say about it in his 1973 interview with Elgen Long:
"Well, don’t go on O’Hare’s log, because I say—I wasn’t even aware that O’Hare was putting that stuff down. . . . No, I mean that. . . .
O’Hare shouldn’t have been putting that down because it was not his responsibility. It was actually mine and Galten, you know. [Laughs] . . . That stinkin’ O’Hare. . . . It’s in error . . . it should never have been in O’Hare’s log. He’s just adding confusion to it and that’s not correct. Possibly O’Hare might have had something in his little punkin’ head that he might have, you know, thought he was going to make a bundle of jack on that or something."

Also, nobody disputes that Earhart actually said "1/2 hour left," Thompson included that information in the message he sent out that morning at 1015, only one and a half hours after her last transmission.

As I wrote in Finding Amelia (page 96):
"At the time, however, Itasca’s commanding officer knew only that he had two different, but not necessarily contradictory, reports of Earhart’s fuel situation. He had little choice but to accept the more pessimistic version. Commander Thompson was not present in the radio room and did not personally hear the call. In his official report, he quoted both versions accurately, but after O’Hare’s “running out of gas, only 1⁄2 hour left,” he added the parenthetical comment “(unverified as heard by other witnesses).” Sometime later, the “un” in “unverified” was crossed out by hand."

I personally think that O'Hare heard the "gas is running low" transmission and conflated it with Earhart's earlier request that Itasca take a bearing and report "in half hour."
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Jaeson Koszarsky

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2012, 10:57:09 AM »

I read that the radio operator in Lae told Earhart that pitching her voice higher may help the transmissions be more audible.  If she thought there was communication problems, she may have taken that bit of advice.  Whether pitching up was an attempt to improve transmission clarity or the result of increasing anxiety/stress/panic or some combination of all, from a technical standpoint would pitching up the voice provide a benefit in voice radio transmission/reception?

What level of sexual bias comes into play with the interpretations of those hearing the broadcasts?  With confusion over times & frequencies, the Itasca crew & others already formed some less favourable opinions.  If you plugged Lindbergh (or another male pilot) into the cockpit instead of Earhart and everything else remained the same, do you think the reports would have differed?  Flip it around with another situation, swap out the male astronauts on the Apollo 13 flight and replace them with just as competent women.  How would reporting and interpretations change?

If she cracked, are there any semi-credible post LOP pre crash/landing broadcasts heard by others that further support that?  Any broadcasts from Noonan expressing their dire situation?

If Earhart wasn't capable of piloting further due to her mental state, would Noonan's experience be enough to land the electra himself, assuming he clear headed enough?
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2012, 11:19:28 AM »

Very interesting observations Jaeson.  I have to believe that not finding Howland had to create some anxiety.  Both in AE and the Howland support people including Itasca radio operators. It's not like there was a nearby alternate airfield.  Plus AE and FN would be rethinking the decision to leave so much survival gear back at Lae. Anxiety? Yes. Hysteria?  No, in my opinion. AE may have had a bad reputation for not learning as much as she could about her instruments. Maybe she wasn't the best pilot either. But she had the nerve to take on all her record breaking events. That says to me she had the "steel" to handle the situation she found herself in, not go to pieces.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2012, 12:52:15 PM »

I guess we should consider the fact that when AE reported 'low on gas' no one actually knew the exact location of the Electra at the time of the transmission. That would include the Itasca and AE/FN ?
Would that be correct?
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: Did Earhart panic?
« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2012, 01:07:48 PM »

That is correct Jeff.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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