Advanced search  
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 [19] 20 21 ... 35   Go Down

Author Topic: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.  (Read 453131 times)

Irvine John Donald

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 597
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #270 on: January 27, 2012, 10:32:31 PM »

Shouldn't he say for himself what he believes rather than you and others guessing at what it is?

My impression is that he HAS said it.

I imagine that his final version will have more calculations in it, based on fuel considerations.

Start at the end and work backwards. 
  • At what time would they run out of fuel, all things considered?
  • How big a rectangle could they search with that fuel after starting the search close to the 337/157 message?
  • How close could that rectangle be to Howland? 

Well, if he has said it, it's not that clear to me, but I haven't been following Gary for as many years as you.  I guess I'm more piqued by what he said he'd provide.

I respect Gary's knowledge very much, but all the calculations can only carry you so far in figuring out what happened to the flight.  I can understand the temptation - there is definitely a mathmatical finality to what finally happened to the flight - but the problem with discerning what it is means you would have to consider millions upon millions of tiny variables and permutations, and then discard the ones that don't work...

The closest we humans can probably get to that is something like the Monte Carlo analysis.  Maybe that's what Gary has in mind.  He didn't agree with much of the assumption used in the well-known one done for TIGHAR so maybe he'll do his own with inputs that suit his beliefs better.

But even the Monte Carlo is but one element in a comprehensive theory - there are so many other clues to be considered even after one gets the plane into whatever vicinity of Howland one thinks reasonable - and then it's 'what happened next' - in the face of stuff like 'we are on the line', the fact of lands to the SE, certain of the findings on Niku, to name a few.

Interesting.  It would just be interesting to see all the bloviation on navigation actually take the discussion forward instead of in circles... the box search is growing kind of stale.

LTM -

Hi Jeff

I believe Marty replied that there are no links or posts that Marty can refer us to which states Gary's position. So this is Marty's impression of what he believes Gary is saying.  His impression comes from reading Gary's posts and reviewing Gary's own website.  Gary hasn't stated his position.  This is why I think it important for Gary to clarify his position because he now has others giving their impression of it. This isn't good because we know that on this forum you can post a comment that is then interpreted, or misinterpreted, as fact or be misquoted. I'm sure Gary will want to clear this up before too many others start giving their impressions. Marty also stated that "I imagine that his final version will have more calculations in it, based on fuel considerations".  So Marty imagines (thinks?) Gary will come forward with his final position. We just have to wait for it.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
Logged

Gary LaPook

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1624
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #271 on: January 28, 2012, 03:27:20 AM »

I believe Marty replied that there are no links or posts that Marty can refer us to which states Gary's position. So this is Marty's impression of what he believes Gary is saying.  His impression comes from reading Gary's posts and reviewing Gary's own website.  Gary hasn't stated his position.  This is why I think it important for Gary to clarify his position because he now has others giving their impression of it. This isn't good because we know that on this forum you can post a comment that is then interpreted, or misinterpreted, as fact or be misquoted. I'm sure Gary will want to clear this up before too many others start giving their impressions. Marty also stated that "I imagine that his final version will have more calculations in it, based on fuel considerations".  So Marty imagines (thinks?) Gary will come forward with his final position. We just have to wait for it.

This has been available for years.

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,384.msg4114.html#msg4114

March 18, 2002

gl
« Last Edit: January 28, 2012, 08:39:28 AM by Martin X. Moleski, SJ »
Logged

Irvine John Donald

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 597
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #272 on: January 28, 2012, 05:44:11 AM »

Other readers who follow your links may see something different than I do. To me they do not state what you believe happened to AE and FN.  The links are, at best, what you think didn't happen.  In fact they aren't even that clear.  Your website article "debunking TIGHAR", Then an article that says you don't believe in the Japanese capture theory, A Life magazine story on TIGHAR, and a link to a 2002 thread that I can't even find your name in, that talks about the Norwich city disaster, castaway eating habits, Ric's run in with the guano lagoon, history of boots, and so on. 

This is your response to the question "what is Gary's position on what happened to AE and FN?".  You very carefully didn't say in your 4.27am post that this was your position but simply posted some links.  Where is the detailed statement we have come to expect from you?  Even Marty imagines a final version with calculations in it. 

I'm disappointed Gary as you aren't replying to the question with your usual clarity or details.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
Logged

JNev

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 778
  • It's a GOOD thing to be in the cornfield...
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #273 on: January 28, 2012, 08:20:28 AM »

This has been available for years.

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,384.msg4114.html#msg4114

March 18, 2002

Yeah, I've read all that Gary.  It's easy to see what you disagree with - but it reveals little of what you do think happened.

I'm just taking you at your own word - so how about it?  Why not put your own theory up for discussion instead of just telling us what's wrong with everybody else's? 

That might make a whole new and educational string here - I'm sure you are secure enough to not sweat the critique.

LTM -
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
« Last Edit: January 28, 2012, 08:38:58 AM by Martin X. Moleski, SJ »
Logged

Heath Smith

  • T4
  • ****
  • Posts: 391
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #274 on: January 28, 2012, 09:48:32 AM »


Quote
The closest we humans can probably get to that is something like the Monte Carlo analysis.

Jeff,

I was reading over the Monte Carlo page here:

http://tighar.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_Simulation_of_Flight

Quoting from the page:

Quote
Gave a position of 4.33oS, 159.7oE. This was the position either at or prior to 0718GMT.

Does the Monte Carlo simulation used the decimal degrees were reported? I also saw no mention of the 05:19 GMT report.  Was this position report ignored?

Thanks.
Logged

Heath Smith

  • T4
  • ****
  • Posts: 391
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #275 on: January 28, 2012, 05:47:51 PM »

Jeff,

Thanks for the detailed response. While I am not really familiar with these Monte Carlo simulations, they do sound very interesting. I will need to study up on them. I do hope to create my own if I cannot access the existing code. My understanding so far is that they use many random permutations or "guesses" of variables based on inputs that have been logically assigned various probabilities that are ultimately used to create probability output maps of the variable of interest like location in this example. It seems critical that the initial conditions and probabilities must be well chosen otherwise it is just creates a fictitious probability output map.

There are a few things regarding the inputs to the existing MC simulation that I do not really understand:

1) The "still air speed" of 130 knots. I am guessing that this fixed speed is then exposed to the head winds to determine the actual ground speed. I am not sure that I understand how that speed was derived without another reference point. Just because AE thought she was at 200 miles out this does not make it so. So it does not make any sense to me for this air speed to be chosen and static throughout the flight from the 7:19 GMT all the way to Howland. Do we know if this single speed was chosen simply to simplify the model?

2) The MC web page also states that a 26 knot head wind was used. From what I understand that is beyond the maximum speed forecast (25 knots) and it was expected to be reduced to 20 knots or less after the Ontario. With the fixed air speed (above) and this high head wind, this almost assured that they would have fell short of Howland before the simulation even began. Since AE announced at 7:18 GMT the head wind of 23 knots, I am not quite sure how to make sense of the choice of head wind and the inability of AE and FN to cope with what they already estimated to be a 23 knot head wind.

3) The MC simulation page also seems to suggest that the "200 miles out" and "100 miles out" were assumed to be nautical miles rather that statute miles. I was under the impression that these were assumed to statute miles. Do we have any details about this?

Originally I did believe that of the three competing theories related to position (decimal degrees, degrees.minutes, or the 157 longitude degrees.minutes on the 5:19 GMT report) would have a significant impact on the flight reconstruction. After having run some numbers, I no longer believe this to be the case. If anyone is interested I can post that data.

Thanks.

Logged

Gary LaPook

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1624
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #276 on: January 31, 2012, 04:51:11 AM »





Why not more messages from AE to that effect?  Why wouldn't the last heard message be something more like 'we are in a box search pattern...' instead of 'we are on the line...'?  How does Gary arrive at the 'west of Howland' constraints Marty mentioned (with, understandably, at least the n - s end points still being in question)?


Yep, and why no message, "we have abandoned our search for Howland and will now proceed towards the Phoenix islands?"

Back to you.

gl
Logged

Gary LaPook

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1624
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #277 on: January 31, 2012, 05:14:54 AM »


I respect Gary's knowledge very much, but all the calculations can only carry you so far in figuring out what happened to the flight.  I can understand the temptation - there is definitely a mathmatical finality to what finally happened to the flight - but the problem with discerning what it is means you would have to consider millions upon millions of tiny variables and permutations, and then discard the ones that don't work...

The closest we humans can probably get to that is something like the Monte Carlo analysis.  Maybe that's what Gary has in mind.  He didn't agree with much of the assumption used in the well-known one done for TIGHAR so maybe he'll do his own with inputs that suit his beliefs better.



LTM -
I have finally been able to decipher the Monte Carlo simulation printout, it was difficult since you can't read out the scale on the sides of the diagram. The key for figuring out what you are looking at is the "H" and the "B" in the two squares representing Howland and Baker. Based on the spacing of these two squares and the fact that these islands are about 36 NM apart makes it clear that each square represents 6 NM, one-tenth of a degree, and the scale appears to be in the form X.x° also confirming this.

After examining the diagram, I now agree with TIGHAR, the Monte Carlo simulation produces the most accurate estimate of the position of the aircraft at 1912 Z. :P Of course this means that they couldn't have landed on Gardner. I am attaching a marked up copy on the Monte Carlo printout. The circle I placed around Howland is 69 SM (60 NM) in radius. I drew the 157° line through Howland that goes to Gardner but the simulation shows that they were unlikely to be closer than at a 55 SM offset from there with a higher probability of being more than at a 100 SM offset. I drew  in lines that are parallel to the 157° line to Gardner offset by these distances. Since Euclid said parallel lines never cross, these lines maintain their spacings forever. This means that since AE turned to fly the 157° line from where the simulation places them, that when they flew by Gardner they were at least 55 SM and, more likely, they were more than 100 SM to the west of that island which made it very difficult for them to see the island.

gl
« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 01:39:09 AM by Gary LaPook »
Logged

Irvine John Donald

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 597
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #278 on: January 31, 2012, 07:14:07 AM »





Why not more messages from AE to that effect?  Why wouldn't the last heard message be something more like 'we are in a box search pattern...' instead of 'we are on the line...'?  How does Gary arrive at the 'west of Howland' constraints Marty mentioned (with, understandably, at least the n - s end points still being in question)?


Yep, and why no message, "we have abandoned our search for Howland and will now proceed towards the Phoenix islands?"

Back to you.

gl

See information covered in the forum section "Radio Reflections". This question has been asked many times in the past and many possible answers given. In particular see http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,333.0.html.  The 3105 donut theory and Lt Coopers report in particular.   Links are in that section. Switching to her daytime frequency and all of the issues on that topic is one of the possible reasons for the silence.  You have likely read this information before since you have been a member since 2002.  Are you throwing up a smokescreen to cover the fact you still haven't presented your theory on what happened? 
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
Logged

Irvine John Donald

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 597
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #279 on: January 31, 2012, 07:33:42 AM »


I respect Gary's knowledge very much, but all the calculations can only carry you so far in figuring out what happened to the flight.  I can understand the temptation - there is definitely a mathmatical finality to what finally happened to the flight - but the problem with discerning what it is means you would have to consider millions upon millions of tiny variables and permutations, and then discard the ones that don't work...

The closest we humans can probably get to that is something like the Monte Carlo analysis.  Maybe that's what Gary has in mind.  He didn't agree with much of the assumption used in the well-known one done for TIGHAR so maybe he'll do his own with inputs that suit his beliefs better.



LTM -
I have finally been able to decipher the Monte Carlo simulation printout, it was difficult since you can't read out the scale on the sides of the diagram. The key for figuring out what you are looking at is the "H" and the "B" in the two squares representing Howland and Baker. Based on the spacing of these two squares and the fact that these islands are about 36 NM apart makes it clear that each square represents 6 NM, one-tenth of a degree, and the scale appears to be in the form X.x° also confirming this.

After examining the diagram, I now agree with TIGHAR, the Monte Carlo simulation produces the most accurate estimate of the position of the aircraft at 1912 Z. Of course this means that they couldn't have landed on Gardner.  ....

gl

Is this then your theory on what happened to AE and FN?  "Of course this means that they couldn't have landed on Gardner.".  Why " of course"?  There are many possibilities as to what happened. Suggesting they put blinders on and flew exactly down a line from one of many possible turn points when their lives depended on making landfall is ONE possibility. But is it likely?  For all we know they just didn't see Howland. Maybe FN wasn't lost and knew that Gardner was their next best option and navigated straight there. AE either blew a radio fuse or switched channels and was transmitting to beat the band on a frequency she wasn't actually transmitting on.  They landed, fixed the fuse and transmitted until Electra went over reef edge.   In the face of credible post loss radio messages the crashed and sank doesn't work. Or are you suggesting they landed somewhere else? 
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
Logged

JNev

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 778
  • It's a GOOD thing to be in the cornfield...
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #280 on: January 31, 2012, 11:22:40 AM »

  Why wouldn't the last heard message be something more like 'we are in a box search pattern...' instead of 'we are on the line...'?  How does Gary arrive at the 'west of Howland' constraints Marty mentioned (with, understandably, at least the n - s end points still being in question)?
Yep, and why no message, "we have abandoned our search for Howland and will now proceed towards the Phoenix islands?"

Back to you.

gl

Touche'.  ;)

LTM -
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
Logged

JNev

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 778
  • It's a GOOD thing to be in the cornfield...
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #281 on: January 31, 2012, 11:27:11 AM »

Why not more messages from AE to that effect?  Why wouldn't the last heard message be something more like 'we are in a box search pattern...' instead of 'we are on the line...'?  How does Gary arrive at the 'west of Howland' constraints Marty mentioned (with, understandably, at least the n - s end points still being in question)?
Yep, and why no message, "we have abandoned our search for Howland and will now proceed towards the Phoenix islands?"

Back to you.

gl

See information covered in the forum section "Radio Reflections". This question has been asked many times in the past and many possible answers given. In particular see http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,333.0.html.  The 3105 donut theory and Lt Coopers report in particular.   Links are in that section. Switching to her daytime frequency and all of the issues on that topic is one of the possible reasons for the silence.  You have likely read this information before since you have been a member since 2002.  Are you throwing up a smokescreen to cover the fact you still haven't presented your theory on what happened?

Excellent point, Irv.

I conceded 'touche'' to Gary - but it's true - giving up on Howland and moving on would have come later (after frequency change) than 'box pattern search'.

I'm not sure Gary agrees with the effects of the frequency change, though.  Seems like he wrote something about that a while back.  And, he's entitled, of course.  I am heartened that he's dug into the MC and has more to say - whether we agree or not about the likelihood of a Gardner outcome, it's more productive to plow some new ground I believe.  I'm looking forward to digesting his thoughts on that a bit.

LTM -
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
Logged

Irvine John Donald

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 597
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #282 on: January 31, 2012, 02:49:07 PM »

Hi Jeff.  New ground is good.  No question as that is how TIGHAR got involved in this in the first place.  And the idea that a box search is the right thing isn't wrong either.  Its not likely that AE and FN got to a spot on the map, looked down and said "Oops.  Missed Howland so lets fly south right away."   Isn't it likely that some type of informal search be made by AE and FN?  Probably not as well thought out as Gary, the US Coast Guard, US Navy and AirForce would do but something at least.  Not too long of course because you dont want to burn all of your fuel reserve looking and then crashing and sinking. Not when you know a set of islands lies to the south.  The MC simulation calculates the possible points where the last transmaission was heard from.  (If I got that wrong please correct me Jeff).  but it gives some locations more weight than others.  Like the lottery you can't write a software program that will calculate the winning numbers.  You can give an indication what numbers "MAY" come up but thats all. Thats what the MC simulation is to me.  Way better than a guess but its its still only a "simulation" based on variables. 

But either way the MC simulation doesnt question why they missed Howland.  Only where they "might" have been when they made the last radio transmission.  They may have flown in an everwidening circle to search for Howland for 30 minutes or an hour after that.  We dont know anything for a fact except they didnt land on Howland.

"If" its proven they landed and died on Gardner then you know for a "Fact" that they turned south to the Phoenix Islands group after missing Howland but not why they missed it.  I don't think we will ever know that unless a castaway diary is uncovered.  Give the guys in the ROV thread some more film and I am sure they will find the diary.  Perhaps even read what it says to us.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
Logged

Jeff Victor Hayden

  • T5
  • *****
  • Posts: 1387
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #283 on: January 31, 2012, 03:38:20 PM »

Hi Jeff.  New ground is good.  No question as that is how TIGHAR got involved in this in the first place.  And the idea that a box search is the right thing isn't wrong either.  Its not likely that AE and FN got to a spot on the map, looked down and said "Oops.  Missed Howland so lets fly south right away."   Isn't it likely that some type of informal search be made by AE and FN?  Probably not as well thought out as Gary, the US Coast Guard, US Navy and AirForce would do but something at least.  Not too long of course because you dont want to burn all of your fuel reserve looking and then crashing and sinking. Not when you know a set of islands lies to the south.  The MC simulation calculates the possible points where the last transmaission was heard from.  (If I got that wrong please correct me Jeff).  but it gives some locations more weight than others.  Like the lottery you can't write a software program that will calculate the winning numbers.  You can give an indication what numbers "MAY" come up but thats all. Thats what the MC simulation is to me.  Way better than a guess but its its still only a "simulation" based on variables. 

But either way the MC simulation doesnt question why they missed Howland.  Only where they "might" have been when they made the last radio transmission.  They may have flown in an everwidening circle to search for Howland for 30 minutes or an hour after that.  We dont know anything for a fact except they didnt land on Howland.

"If" its proven they landed and died on Gardner then you know for a "Fact" that they turned south to the Phoenix Islands group after missing Howland but not why they missed it.  I don't think we will ever know that unless a castaway diary is uncovered.  Give the guys in the ROV thread some more film and I am sure they will find the diary.  Perhaps even read what it says to us.
Could be done Irv, if it was waterproof of course :) I expect the last entry would read something like this "we're lost" ;D
Jeff
This must be the place
 
Logged

Heath Smith

  • T4
  • ****
  • Posts: 391
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #284 on: January 31, 2012, 06:33:15 PM »


If the MC sim used a 26 knot head wind, and AE herself reported a 23 knot head wind at 07:19 GMT, how could you end up over 100-150 miles short of your destination even if on the correct heading? It seems that you would need an additional 5 knot headwind that is unaccounted for in order to achieve this short fall over the roughly 1700 miles.

If they were only off by 3 knots, this would only account for maybe 30 SM over the distance in question.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 [19] 20 21 ... 35   Go Up
 

Copyright 2021 by TIGHAR, a non-profit foundation. No portion of the TIGHAR Website may be reproduced by xerographic, photographic, digital or any other means for any purpose. No portion of the TIGHAR Website may be stored in a retrieval system, copied, transmitted or transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, digital, photographic, magnetic or otherwise, for any purpose without the express, written permission of TIGHAR. All rights reserved.

Contact us at: info@tighar.org • Phone: 610-467-1937 • Membership formwebmaster@tighar.org

Powered by MySQL SMF 2.0.18 | SMF © 2021, Simple Machines Powered by PHP