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richie conroy

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #135 on: January 06, 2012, 11:00:57 PM »

also finding info on fred noonan is like finding the electra's final resting place, he was never in news or papers for wrong reasons all his telegrams letters had no spelling mistakes etc..... so if u ask me the being alcholic is more fairy tale than anythink also he had just married so he was probably more ecstatic than pilatic

i honestly think them flying round thunder storms an then joing the line of flight, they have not accounted for them miles so when they thought they were by howland they were say 100 miles short an that would explain no one on howland hearing a plane

 :)   
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richie conroy

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #136 on: January 06, 2012, 11:04:10 PM »

if fred was telling her what to say!!!!!!! he is irish\scouse so them numbers cud mean anythink hehe  ;D
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #137 on: January 06, 2012, 11:09:17 PM »

I doubt Gore Vidal was an eyewitness - I think it is more likely that he's recounting something told by his father Gene, the director of the Bureau of Air Commerce, who was close to Earhart and Putnam.  He seems to be summing up an understanding of an exchange, perhaps as told by Putnam well after the fact.  That would make it about... third hand, if so.  He WAS closer to the people involved than you or I though, wasn't he?

He was about 12 years old in the summer of 1937.

I doubt that he wrote these things down.

He was a novelist.

The story has the feel of a well-worn, oft-told anecdote. 
Quote

I find it interesting: we can see that the first part of his statement is true - the 'personnel problems' comment is accurate enough; did he then go 'over the top' for some reason about the rest of it?  You say it 'sounds' over the top; I may see it as a retelling of an understanding - and 'why would he create a fictional outcome of the report?

Because this is something people often do, for various and sundry reasons?

Quote

What was this guy really like?


I don't know, and I don't much care.

I don't see any point in doing a psychic profile of Fred in order to determine what he would have done on the flight.  You seem to find this of profound significance.  I don't.

Quote

How do you know they ever got that close?


Because "Radio" Direction Finding uses a phenomenon called "radio waves" to help find out what direction a transmission was made from.  There were these wonderful things called "radio waves" travelling from the aircraft to Howland for about six hours, with the signal strength of the "radio waves" growing steadily stronger, which makes the task of those trying to find the "direction" from the "radio waves" are being transmitted easier and easier.

I can, if need be, define "radio," "direction," and "finding" in simpler terms, if need be.

Quote

He had far more experience in airplanes reliant on RDF than AE did.


His experience was not from being at the controls of the equipment, but from having messages transmitted and delivered by professional radio operators.  How much have you learned about flying from riding in the passenger cabin of modern aircraft?

Quote

If you put my country butt in the back of NR16020 with a trans-oceanic newby like AE up front and no boat bottom under us to navigate that far and home in on a beacon, I'm going to be looking into the arrangements pretty firmly with all I do know, especially after a steller experience with Pan Am, etc.  That's a crack in the perception of FN as the perfect navigator: he wasn't that pefect - it's evident to me that he wasn't applying his full acumen to this flight. 


Amelia had flown as a passenger across the Atlantic.

She had flown the Atlantic solo.

She had flown from Hawaii to California solo.

These are things that some of us like to call "facts."  Is there any way to persuade you to use "facts" as a check on your powers of psychic investigation?

Quote

I take it that you mean you don't believe AE could have navigated to the LOP by herself - you couldn't possibly know that.


Yes.  This was the conviction that I expressed in the English language when I wrote, "Could Amelia have done so?  My own view is 'No.'  YMMV."

By the word "view," I mean my considered opinion, after spending 12 years diligently reading the materials on the TIGHAR website.

By the expression, "YMMV," I had intended to indicate "Your mileage may vary," which is a common way of saying that I understand you may not agree with the view that I had just expressed.

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How else to dream of such goals?  How else to pursue greater understanding than to first conceive?  How else to get into so much trouble... yes, the risk of 'fantasy' is real, I agree.


I dream pretty much every night.  Most of it is dreck.

When I wake up in the morning, if something abides, I'll try to check it against reality.

Wiley imagined the oxygen mask.  He then proceded to make it work.  Reality confirmed his dream.

He imagined that he could both navigate and fly solo around the world.  He beat the record he had set with Harold Gatty doing the navigating.  Reality confirmed his dream.

Your fantasies seem not to be testable.  We can't build anything out of them, nor do they lead us to look in a different location than Gardner, nor use different techniques.

Quote

But, fantasy?  Do I really violate the bounds of reason here?  I've proceeded more by reason and given observations than by the heart of the poet (wouldn't you know it).


See above for a few "facts" that you failed to include in your dreams, as well as some doubts about the stories you use to make the fire burn more brightly.
LTM,

           Marty
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richie conroy

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #138 on: January 06, 2012, 11:12:15 PM »

also if there was cloud cover, surely they would have flew at a higher altitude so they were able to get a fix on were they was ??
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #139 on: January 06, 2012, 11:24:21 PM »

On the TV program "The American Experience" Gore Vidal says that his father, Gene Vidal, was
at the Harold Tribune office with G.P. the night before the departure from Lae. A phone call
came in from Earhart reporting the code phrase "personnel unfitness" meaning that Noonan was
drinking and that Gene Vidal told her not to fly with Noonan but that they would get her another
navigator.

On the show "Vanishings" they also say that she called Putnam from Lae the night before the
departure.

Neither show is a "primary source," a contemporary document written in or near 1937 by Gene Vidal, G.P., anyone in the Herald Tribune office, or telephone billing records.

The shows have one secondary source: the memory of a 12-year-old boy, reported to some undefined audience at an undefined date.

It's a sweet story, because it absolve AE from the blame and places it squarely on Noonan.

Quote
We know that she sent a radiogram to Putnam on June 30th, two days before the departure,
reporting "personnel unfitness,” did she also telephone him with the same information the night
before the departure?

Did the shows provide any any evidence that she repeated herself?

If we are to take Gore as a reliable witness, then we're stuck with his whole testimony, not just the parts we like.  Her code mean "Fred is too drunk to navigate."  On this theory, she sent that message by telegram on the 29th (30th in Lae) and by voice on the unrecorded telephone call to a newspaper office that had an exclusive contract to tell her story, yet, while acting prudently on the 29th became unhinged on the evening of 1 July, deciding against the advice of her husband and a man who loved her, both of whom pleaded with her to destroy Fred's reputation, scuttle the project on which AE and GP's wealth depended, and save her life. 

I don't find that persuasive.

Quote
I also looked into the cost of radiograms. As of January 1, 1937 it cost 39 cents per word from
San Francisco to Manila. I doubt that it was less expensive to cable Lae than it was to cable
Manila. 39 cents in 1937 is the same as $5.91 in 2010 dollars. The 40 word June 30th radiogram
cost at least $236.40 in 2010 dollars! She sent a longer radiogram the day before the departure
since the Tribune agreed to pay the cable costs. Her last message was 94 words (including the
address) costing the Tribune at least $555.54 in 2010 dollars!

Putnam was running short of money which is why he had to get the Tribune to pick up the cost of
the last cable. Who was going to pay for the telephone calls to Putnam and to Lockheed?

Is there any reason to even believe that telephone calls from Lae to the U.S. were even possible
in 1937? There was no undersea telegraph cable to Lae then, which is why the messages
exchanged were by radiogram so what would make anybody think that there was an undersea
telephone cable available? What about radio telephone calls on short wave? That's a pretty long
distance to cover by voice radio which is why Morse code was used to pass messages and, even
for Morse messages, they had to be passed in a series of relays,  so I think it is highly unlikely
that it would have been possible to make a radiotelephone call to the States from Lae. I have attached
a map of the cables across the Pacific in 1939, none goes near Lae.


Very nice!

Quote
Bottom line, I don't believe the claims Gore Vidal. Note that this claim is hearsay. Gore Vidal
said his father told him, Gore wasn't actually there. (And Gore Vidal was also the source for the
supposed romance between his father and AE shown in the recent movie so it calls that claim
into question also.)

Agreed. 
LTM,

           Marty
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richie conroy

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #140 on: January 06, 2012, 11:26:38 PM »

the radio waves bounce up an down off stratosphere so if u have 1 radio Ariel pointing and sending signals from papa new guinea towards howland

and u have 1 sending radio waves from say jarvis island, say a mayday from plane they cud get estimated distance from station it was comeing from,

an the one in papa new guinea could estimate the distance from there station, which would in theory pin point the mayday call

 :) 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #141 on: January 07, 2012, 12:21:06 AM »



"Gore Vidal: "Well, just the night before the final flight, she reported in and they had a code phrase, 'personnel problems,' which meant Noonan was back drinking. And my father said, 'Just stop it right now and come home,' and G.P. agreed and said, 'Come back, abort the flight, forget it, come home.' And then she said, 'Oh, no,' and she said, 'I think it’ll be all right,' something like that. So you may put that down to invincible optimism or it may have been huge pessimism."


"Personnel unfitness" (or if "personal unfitness") was apparently a very private term devised between AE and GP which seems intended to import real meaning but without bringing negatives to the light in their publicity efforts.  What was so dark about it that they didn't want it creeping into the headlines?

If the Vidal observation is reliable the term carried potentially grave meanings - it would be no light thing to cancel plans, and AE resisted it at least on the occasion mentioned by Vidal.




Were there any newspaper headlines--

EXCLUSIVE! PHONE CALL TO LAE REVEALS.......

Does anybody have any proof that such a
call was even possible? After the disappearance did anybody in the states place phone
calls to Lae to get information about AE's departure and prior actions? Were
there any phone calls to Collopy or Chatter or Balfour? I would have expected at
least one newspaper to make such calls during the heat of the search. I would
have expected Putnam to make these calls, any record that he did? Were any phone
calls made to the states from Lae after the disappearance and during the search
period by Chatter or Collopy of Balfour or other officials to provide
information to aid in the search? Why not?

Oh, I see, they couldn't get a dial tone.

gl




« Last Edit: January 07, 2012, 12:23:28 AM by Gary LaPook »
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #142 on: January 07, 2012, 12:29:01 AM »




"Gore Vidal: "Well, just the night before the final flight, she reported in and they had a code phrase, 'personnel problems,' which meant Noonan was back drinking. And my father said, 'Just stop it right now and come home,' and G.P. agreed and said, 'Come back, abort the flight, forget it, come home.' And then she said, 'Oh, no,' and she said, 'I think it’ll be all right,' something like that. So you may put that down to invincible optimism or it may have been huge pessimism."


"Personnel unfitness" (or if "personal unfitness") was apparently a very private term devised between AE and GP which seems intended to import real meaning but without bringing negatives to the light in their publicity efforts.  What was so dark about it that they didn't want it creeping into the headlines?

If the Vidal observation is reliable the term carried potentially grave meanings - it would be no light thing to cancel plans, and AE resisted it at least on the occasion mentioned by Vidal.



Amelia called Putnam from Surabaja. "George included only the end of the conversation in his book, stating that it was 'the last conversation I had with her.'" East To The Dawn, Susan Butler, page 399. Putnam never said that he had spoken with Ameila in Lae.

gl
« Last Edit: January 07, 2012, 08:32:52 AM by Martin X. Moleski, SJ »
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #143 on: January 07, 2012, 07:42:18 AM »

... Oh, I see, they couldn't get a dial tone.

Things are starting to look a little more complicated this morning.  From the old Forum:

Date: Sat, 5 Feb 2005 10:12:43
From: Mike Juliano
Subject: Re: Phone service to New Guinea

"1934: AT&T inaugurates transpacific telephone service, initially between the US and Japan. Calls travel across the Pacific via radio. The initial capacity is one call at a time at a cost of $39 for the first three minutes."

LTM Mike J.

==============================================

Date: Sun, 6 Feb 2005 12:24:27
From: Skeet Gifford
Subject: Re: Phone service to New Guinea

> From Mike Juliano
>
> "The initial capacity is one call at a time at a cost of $39 for the
> first three minutes."

That's about $550 in 2004 dollars.

Ric claimed that AE did phone in a story from Lae to the New York Herald Tribune.  I haven't gone looking for his source yet.  But the quotation from Ric reminds me that Putnam was in California.  I speculate that the office of the New York Herald Tribune that took AE's press report was in New York. 

Confirmed: "Putnam had negotiated an arrangement with the Herald Tribune newspaper syndicate for Amelia to phone, or when necessary wire, the syndicate’s New York office from each destination with a travelogue about her flight and the exotic people and places she saw along the way. Earhart’s bylined story would be carried in the next morning’s paper. For the syndicate this was an opportunity to give Herald Tribune readers a first-person, serialized, near-real-time account of  what it was like to travel the world by air. For Earhart and Putnam it was a publicist’s dream come true: coverage of  Amelia’s adventures, as told by Amelia, featured in major papers around the country virtually every day for a month or more" (Finding Amelia, pp. 32-33).

Confirmed: There was international telephone service from Lae to the U.S. mainland.  But Earhart was low on cash, and it seems that she could not afford to pay for another call to the Herald Tribune after her call on 30 June.

This does not mean that her husband could not have called her from California, but his own near-contemporaneous testimony is that his last telephone call with her took place when she was in Surabaya on 24/25 June.

I've tried to pull together all of the available information in this article.
LTM,

           Marty
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« Last Edit: January 07, 2012, 08:32:33 AM by Martin X. Moleski, SJ »
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #144 on: January 07, 2012, 09:13:26 AM »

No one wants to think that FN had a drinking problem and was incapacitated enough that this contributed to not finding Howland but it must be considered.

Let's consider this, then, if we "must."

AE sees Fred drinking.  She decides that they can't leave because he won't navigate well, and sends the previously-agreed upon code that means, "Fred is drunk as a skunk."

Now, having established her bona fides as an estimator of inebriation and a cautious pilot who thought she was too young to die.

The telegram you quote was from June 29.

The airplane did not take off until July 2.

Apart from the recorded difficulties with the chronometer and weather reports, you are now asking us to entertain various undocumented suppositions:

1) Fred stayed drunk for the next four days, but did get his chronometers set in spite of his intoxication.

2) Only Earhart noticed this condition (we have no evidence of unusually heavy drinking on Fred's part in Lae; many pilots were heavy drinkers in the Golden Age of Aviation; such things do not happen nowadays, of course).

3) Rather than continue to exercise prudent restraint on July 2nd, she cast her fate to the winds and set off to get lost with the drunken sot instead of exposing him to the withering wrath of society.  She could not bear to use the secret code again to signal her displeasure to her husband, so she decided to take her chances on Fred sobering up before the real heavy lifting began 20 hours into the flight.

So, now that I have considered what must be considered, what conclusion must I come to?

Marty, since there is noted discussions in this forum and other documents as to "was FN drinking" then we are "considering it" already.  It has been discussed by many long before me raising it.

However you make three points in "your" consideration.

Point 1.  Please check times.  You noted the telegram was sent the same day as they landed. June 29.  They took off July 2.  See http://tighar.org/wiki/Delayed_in_Lae  That's three days. Not four.  (possible issues with time zones as well).  Secondly, it is documented that FN got his time check and set his chronometers. http://tighar.org/wiki/Delayed_in_Lae.   Am I nitpicking?  If the standard is to accurately state the facts then we must.  Otherwise forum readers will reach the wrong conclusions. 

Point 2.  How do you know that "only" Earhart noticed this condition?  A lack of evidence doesn't mean it isn't true.  Who else was to report this?  To whom?  If heavy drinking was the norm then why would it be note worthy anyway?   You're stating an unknown as a fact.

Point 3.  You could be absolutely right. You don't know.  Neither do I.

These three undocumented suppositions are just that. Undocumented suppositions. However as I said, a lack of evidence does not mean it didn't happen.  We just don't know. But there are noted "suggestions" that FN was a drinker and that this may have been a contributing factor  and these "suggestions" need to be examined for the evidence value. This is testing. You decide after the facts are gathered if it's true or not. Just like a court. But I suggest you do a disservice to the hypothesis if you don't examine the "suggestions".  In a court case both sides make opening statements/arguments then set about proving and disproving using evidence. The evidence supports one position better than the other. But the evidence doesn't make the statements. And lack of evidence doesn't mean it didn't happen. 

In my opinion and respectfully submitted.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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JNev

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #145 on: January 07, 2012, 11:22:27 AM »

No one wants to think that FN had a drinking problem and was incapacitated enough that this contributed to not finding Howland but it must be considered.

Let's consider this, then, if we "must."

AE sees Fred drinking.  She decides that they can't leave because he won't navigate well, and sends the previously-agreed upon code that means, "Fred is drunk as a skunk."

Now, having established her bona fides as an estimator of inebriation and a cautious pilot who thought she was too young to die.

The telegram you quote was from June 29.

The airplane did not take off until July 2.

Apart from the recorded difficulties with the chronometer and weather reports, you are now asking us to entertain various undocumented suppositions:

1) Fred stayed drunk for the next four days, but did get his chronometers set in spite of his intoxication.

2) Only Earhart noticed this condition (we have no evidence of unusually heavy drinking on Fred's part in Lae; many pilots were heavy drinkers in the Golden Age of Aviation; such things do not happen nowadays, of course).

3) Rather than continue to exercise prudent restraint on July 2nd, she cast her fate to the winds and set off to get lost with the drunken sot instead of exposing him to the withering wrath of society.  She could not bear to use the secret code again to signal her displeasure to her husband, so she decided to take her chances on Fred sobering up before the real heavy lifting began 20 hours into the flight.

So, now that I have considered what must be considered, what conclusion must I come to?

I don't really think he was drunk when he got aboard.  Yes, I discombogulated the timing of the gram and departure.

I think it's possible he and AE did all kinds of things to 'polish' their less-than perfect images when they could; the clock-setting makes a great postive 'byte' (or 'bite', or whatever the pols call it these days...).  Call it as you will (and yes, it was a necessary function). 

I doubt AE would have been as concerned with saving FN from the wrath of society as with preserving her own carefully made image - GP would have no less, and there'd be no more flying adventures and public adoration for her if she failed in their eyes.  I think she had an underlying 'better die than look bad' element in her make-up - but call it was you will.

I suspect FN may have been prone to pull a spooker and 'wash his mouth' when bored - just MHO.

I don't know who else here has had experience with drunks (and apologies if I am offending, but I've also had one or two who were very close to me and I love them anyway), but I have had some - including transporting people who started out completely sober, and for no apparent reason and without any visible resource (until the spooker came out of some crack somewhere) became completely sotted, on my hands. 

The first time this happened to me I was 19 years old and was in giving an older chap (45ish) a ride home to his sister across state on my weekend trip home from A&P school.  That turned into some kind of ride - and as crappy as it got, when he realized his sister's home was 20 minutes away he started pulling it together well enough to almost appear sober.  Of course he really wasn't - didn't make the front steps without my help, and couldn't have poured urine out of footware, as Gary might put it... and sis' had long been onto baby brother so no surprise to her...

Still makes me a bit sad, actually.  The guy had a gift for writing and singing - started out beautifully - but you shoulda heard what became of his poetry and voice mid-way across Georgia that night... He had been a truck driver, and somewhere in there he presumed giving me driving instructions - one more thing to fight-off.  I should have dropped him off at a police station or sheriff's office in one of our little towns for my own driving safety... but he was just one of God's chilluns gettin' through this world, and we made it home that night.

It was an awakening - and I've never been surprised at this phenomenom in some humans since that time.  So, if I'm a bit too focused on the idea for the comfort of some, well, at least you can get an idea of where I'm coming from.  It's my notion.  Others have had far greater struggles with alcoholics - or alcoholism, and I mean no offense in telling this.  It is a hard disease.

But, if FN was so on his game for the whole flight, then what the hell did happen?  Why wasn't he all over this thing?  Just doesn't smell right.

LTM -
- Jeff Neville

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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #146 on: January 07, 2012, 11:53:50 AM »

Point 1.  Please check times.  You noted the telegram was sent the same day as they landed. June 29.  They took off July 2.  See http://tighar.org/wiki/Delayed_in_Lae  That's three days. Not four.  (possible issues with time zones as well).

OK.  Using GMT, let's re-count.

From the article you quote: "At 2015GMT [0615 local], June 29th, Earhart sent this message to Itasca: Plan midday takeoff here [June 30 local time]."

So let's use local time consistently.

June 30, 6:30 AM: ""Radio misunderstanding and personnel unfitness probably will hold one day. Have asked Black for forecast for tomorrow. You check meteorologist on job as FN must have star sights."

June 30: day one.
July 1: day two.
July 2: "day" three.

Let's count the hours.  From 0630 30 June to 1000 2 July is 51.5 hours.

Yes, I overstated the count of days.

Quote
Secondly, it is documented that FN got his time check and set his chronometers. http://tighar.org/wiki/Delayed_in_Lae.   Am I nitpicking?  If the standard is to accurately state the facts then we must.  Otherwise forum readers will reach the wrong conclusions. 

Yes.  I take that as evidence that FN was on the job.  See below.

Quote
Point 2.  How do you know that "only" Earhart noticed this condition?  A lack of evidence doesn't mean it isn't true.  Who else was to report this?  To whom?  If heavy drinking was the norm then why would it be note worthy anyway?   You're stating an unknown as a fact.

Fair enough.  I should have written that if the tendentious interpretation is placed on "personnel unfitness," then it follows that AE was the only one to comment on Fred's condition in the documents we have at our disposal.

Quote
Point 3.  You could be absolutely right. You don't know.  Neither do I.

This is a sweeping, hasty, and inaccurate generalization.  It is also a red herring.

I'm not claiming "absolute knowledge."  My argument is about the inferences that I draw from the information we have available.

Quote
These three undocumented suppositions are just that. Undocumented suppositions.

I spent more than an hour this morning doing "fact checking" and organizing the references I make to the documentation into a coherent account.  I think I have met the obligations of a researcher.

Quote
However as I said, a lack of evidence does not mean it didn't happen.  We just don't know. But there are noted "suggestions" that FN was a drinker and that this may have been a contributing factor  and these "suggestions" need to be examined for the evidence value.

"Suggestions" have no evidentiary value whatsoever.  Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur: what is freely asserted may be freely denied.

Quote
This is testing. You decide after the facts are gathered if it's true or not. Just like a court.

I've gathered the facts--and shown where I got them.

I've shown why I don't take Gore Vidal's anecdote (told to whom? when?) as a "fact" at all.

  • The 12-year-old boy was not part of the conversation.
  • Putnam was in California.
  • AE placed her calls to the Herald Tribune's office in New York City.
  • Her calls were copied by a stenographer and used as copy for the Herald.
  • She told her husband she didn't have enough cash to place another phone call.  Her last report was by telegram rather than by telephone.
  • Putnam said his last conversation with his wife was in Surabaya on 25 June (GMT).
For me, these are good and sufficient reasons for not accepting Gore Vidal's interpretation of "personnel unfitness."
Based on other facts placed in evidence, I argue that:
  • Even if Noonan was drunk at dawn on 30 June (local), he had plenty of time (51.5 hours) to sober up before takeoff.
  • If AE was willing to delay the flight solely because of Noonan's drunkenness on the 30th (an allegation not supported by the other reasons given for the delay--weather and time checks), she should have delayed the flight on 2 July (local) if Fred was still three sheets to the wind.
  • Fred's hand-ear-eye coordination was good enough to calibrate his chronometers when a clear radio signal was finally received.  That suggests to me that he was sufficiently sober to navigate, too.
Quote
But I suggest you do a disservice to the hypothesis if you don't examine the "suggestions".

I've done that.  Not just by inspecting the inside of my head, but by exploring the information available.  I've given an account of that exploration of the evidence and explained why I reject what you find in your head as a persuasive interpretation.

Quote
In a court case both sides make opening statements/arguments then set about proving and disproving using evidence. The evidence supports one position better than the other. But the evidence doesn't make the statements. And lack of evidence doesn't mean it didn't happen. 

In other words, your think that your pretty much total lack of evidence from near-contemporaneous documents to show that Fred was incapacitated by alcohol should not be held against you.  You are exercising your right to hold your opinion because you like the way your mind works.

Quote
In my opinion and respectfully submitted.

Since you seem to have trouble getting past the point of having an idea--which, of course, is just like Einstein and other great scientists who start their work by having ideas--let me point you to some documentation about Fred's drinking habits, transcribed by the amazing Pat Thrasher, who is personally responsible for most of the thousands of pages of information available to researchers on the TIGHAR website.  I'm sure that you will be comforted to know that other psychic researchers like yourself have had suspicions of Fred similar to your own.
LTM,

           Marty
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #147 on: January 07, 2012, 02:07:39 PM »

Ok Marty. Let's start with your "documentation about Fred's drinking habits".

The Brines letter is reproduced in the forum. The cover wording starts "At this time its provenance is unknown but it appears to be a piece of correspondence from one journalist (“Russ Brines”) to another (Richard ?). If authentic, it contains the first contemporaneous reference we’ve seen to Noonan being a heavy drinker and also provides some interesting insights into the attitude of at least some members of the press toward Earhart’s flight and disappearance."

I have read his before. I don't see anything in the forum that says this letter has been confirmed as authentic.  Its a letter or note between two correspondents, unauthenticated So does it fall into your category of undocumented supposition?  It is documented as a "reference".  Not as evidence. Why is it even in this forum?  If we are only to make suggestions with documented evidence then why reprint it here?  Is this part of your coherent account information you gathered to form your argument?

I am basing what I have said on what I read here in this forum.  You're right about lack of evidence. But lack of evidence isn't enough to say something didn't happen. You know that.  The Brines letter is an example of that. You're making a point to me that evidence is important then you point me at this document. It's smoke with no fire. It's not evidence.

I can say that Fred smuggled booze onto the plane and was drinking the whole way from Lae to Gardner. Sober when he set his clocks. In good shape early on the trip and rip snorting drunk at the end. But that's just me "suggesting".  I could say this fits the points you use to say "Based on other facts placed in evidence, I would argue:" starting "Even if Noonan..... Sober to navigate, too".  He was sober at the start, AE didn't need to delay the flight and he could set his clocks.   My story fits your points too. And I have zero evidence. None. Zilch.

"Suggestions" have no evidentiary value whatsoever.  Correct.  You have stated in several replies to forum contributors that "What is freely asserted is freely denied". Not always with those words but in principle. But we are allowed to "freely assert" our suggestions.  You are allowed to "freely deny" these suggestions. and vice versa.

Evidence can support a "suggestion" or it can destroy it. Now look at your information you say is your coherent account. The same page I provided in my link. Under the "Delayed in Lae" wiki page  http://tighar.org/wiki/Personnel_unfitness#.22Personnel_unfitness.22.  So we both used the same reference material. Granted for different purposes yet I'm called a psychic.  Where on that page does it say FN was NOT drinking?  It doesn't. Just like it doesn't say he WAS drinking.  It just presents information to allow the reader to form their own opinion.

I am not going to further respond to your psychic comments. I read information on and off this forum and form my thoughts based on what I read and see. You may chose to disagree.  For instance the light at Nauru being 5600 feet above sea level. I provided links to information that shows Nauru Island that's essentially flat and 180 feet above sea level. I provided another link to the tallest buildings and structures in the world. I believe the 5600 foot tower is a typo. I believe the tower was shorter than 5600 feet.  No clairvoyance. Others disagree with me.  It is their right. Just as it is your right to disagree with me.  However I suggest the legal system is made up of two sides who both believe they are right.  In this forum, who is the judge, providing fair and impartial comments without allowing personal bias and attack to creep in? 

Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #148 on: January 07, 2012, 02:22:34 PM »



"Gore Vidal: "Well, just the night before the final flight, she reported in and they had a code phrase, 'personnel problems,' which meant Noonan was back drinking. And my father said, 'Just stop it right now and come home,' and G.P. agreed and said, 'Come back, abort the flight, forget it, come home.' And then she said, 'Oh, no,' and she said, 'I think it’ll be all right,' something like that. So you may put that down to invincible optimism or it may have been huge pessimism."


"Personnel unfitness" (or if "personal unfitness") was apparently a very private term devised between AE and GP which seems intended to import real meaning but without bringing negatives to the light in their publicity efforts.  What was so dark about it that they didn't want it creeping into the headlines?

If the Vidal observation is reliable the term carried potentially grave meanings - it would be no light thing to cancel plans, and AE resisted it at least on the occasion mentioned by Vidal.





Oh, I see, they couldn't get a dial tone.

gl





Earhart sent out several radiograms making clear to everyone the critical importance of receiving a weather forecast from Hawaii before her takeoff. Yet, the important forecast arrived after the takeoff. Why didn't they just pick up the phone?

I have attached a page from Safford's book, showing how difficult it was to get messages to and from Lae.

gl
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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  • Nuclear Physicist(Ret) Pilot(Ret) Scuba(Ret)
Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #149 on: January 07, 2012, 02:47:17 PM »


A quote from the Brines Letter
Therefore, if this is true, the chances are that Amelia had him
poured into the plane and decided to do the navigqating herself.
Well, she can't -- couldn't -- navigate for sour
apples. And she probably started out for Howland via South
Africa. Actually, then, nobody knows where she fell in the
soup. And the dumb ninny followed her usual routine by refusing
or declining to give position reports throughout the flight.
Her only attempt to say where she was came early the fateful
morning when she offered a "sunline" position -- by desginating
the line on a 360 circle along which she was flying. But
she gave no reference point, so that attempt was worthless.

This after referring to Fred as "a six bottle man" ( a man with a high alchol tolerance) who enjoyed the nightlife at Lae.
No Worries Mates
LTM   Harry (TIGHAR #3244R)
 
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