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Author Topic: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.  (Read 450904 times)

Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #165 on: January 07, 2012, 08:07:32 PM »


I take offense at your personal remark: ...


OK.

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I'm frankly more saddened than offended, I think, that you should get so personal as to essentially declare me a lunatic - an ignorant spinner of raw fantasy with no touch in fact - a thing which according to your pointed, personal remark I am supposedly incapable of understanding short of an education from you.

OK.

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Well, it's up to you to judge me a nut or not, just as may all others present judge my writings and being for themselves, but personally it lowers my opinion of your own objectivity, if not sense of basic charity.  Too bad, but I can live with it.

Great!

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Actually, as you seem to understand, I was not speaking of sleeping dreams, but the kinds of dreams some humans have that amount to vision of what may be and working toward greater understanding and achievement through reason and application of 'fact', that's all.  I feel for folks who can't do that - and pity those who cannot handle it in others - the world would be dim without it - and devoid of working hypotheses.

I've explained in some detail why I reject your hypothesis.  I am not opposed to the role of hypotheses in investigation--quite the contrary!  I don't find any merit in this hypothesis, and I don't find that judgment modified one whit by the thought that many human disciplines make progress by the use of imaginative reconsideration of data.

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Although you have graciously provided some details about contemporaneous communications (many thanks) you see FN as a given quantity and essentially irrelevant as to his personal situation and disposition.

That is not an accurate representation of my view.  I think there are good reasons to believe that the "personnel unfitness" was resolved by the time of takeoff, and therefore--for me--is of no explanatory value in answering the question, "Why didn't they find Howland?"

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I simply disagree.  You too use your opinions just as profusely as you use facts - so, physician, heal thyself.  Or, perhaps you simply see my own powers of reasoning as vastly inferior to yours.  Well, you are entitled to your opinion. 

Thanks.  My opinion is that we have no reason to believe that Fred was inebriated on 2 July 1937. 

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I get your point that AE is the spoiler by wrecking the end-game RDF scheme (which I understand quite well, but thanks for the offer of the third grade course); FN is off-limits somehow - he apparently could not have failed. 

That's not my point at all.  Here is my article on "Failure to communicate," which shows the many people who contributed to the mess long beforehand.  That's the research that underlies my remark that Amelia made a hash of the RDF.

I take it that you now accept what you previously questioned: Fred got them close enough to Howland for RDF to have worked--if AE had understood what was needed to provide a transmission that could be homed in on or to receive a transmission on which she could take a bearing.  She was the one who had the cockpit laid out for her to run the radios.  She was the one who chose to replace the Hooven receiver with an older model.  She was the one who failed to understand what frequencies would work.  She was the one who blithely explained away her failure to get a null in Lae.  She was the pilot in command--very much in command. 

Did Fred miss a trick by not studying the theory and practice of radio operations?  Yes.  Does that have anything to do with his drinking?  I think not. 

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I simply disagree.  FN is as much up for review as AE as to how they arrived in their mess, that's all.

Ah.
LTM,

           Marty
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #166 on: January 07, 2012, 08:14:35 PM »

Brines - interesting fellow, thanks for that link.

You're welcome.  I'm the one who introduced Brines into this thread.  I found the letter by using the search engine, which is free and available to anyone to use to find things like this on the website.

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Interesting update on the new / updated "Delayed in Lae" / Brines letter / 'Observations' page.  That was fast.

No, it took an hour of hard work.

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I get it now -

As some see it (and I can understand why), if FN is considered disabled at a crucial time in the flight, the LOP cannot have a rational basis.

The LOP must be reliable - AE said she was on it.

No, I agree, we just can't have FN being drunk.

Nothing to that effect is on that page.

Do you understand that it is not appropriate in an argument to impute a position to the other that is different from what the other person has said?
LTM,

           Marty
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #167 on: January 07, 2012, 09:23:03 PM »

The Brines letter is reproduced in the forum. The cover wording starts "At this time its provenance is unknown but it appears to be a piece of correspondence from one journalist (“Russ Brines”) to another (Richard ?). If authentic, it contains the first contemporaneous reference we’ve seen to Noonan being a heavy drinker and also provides some interesting insights into the attitude of at least some members of the press toward Earhart’s flight and disappearance."

I have read his before. I don't see anything in the forum that says this letter has been confirmed as authentic.  Its a letter or note between two correspondents, unauthenticated So does it fall into your category of undocumented supposition?  It is documented as a "reference".  Not as evidence. Why is it even in this forum?  If we are only to make suggestions with documented evidence then why reprint it here?  Is this part of your coherent account information you gathered to form your argument?

1) If it is from 3 August 1937, it is the only account we have before 1960 of any accusations about Noonan drinking too much.

2) There is nothing in the letter that disqualifies it as a legitimate source.  The Gore Vidal anecdote, by contrast, is undated and is inconsistent with other things we know about 2 July 1937.

3) It is an example of psychic research.  If a journalist in Honolulu wrote it, he did not bestir himself to travel to Lae and get real evidence about what actually happened in Lae. 

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I am basing what I have said on what I read here in this forum.  You're right about lack of evidence. But lack of evidence isn't enough to say something didn't happen. You know that.  The Brines letter is an example of that. You're making a point to me that evidence is important then you point me at this document. It's smoke with no fire. It's not evidence.

It may be evidence about Fred's habits, if it is authentic.

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I can say that Fred smuggled booze onto the plane and was drinking the whole way from Lae to Gardner. Sober when he set his clocks. In good shape early on the trip and rip snorting drunk at the end. But that's just me "suggesting".

Brines claims to have known Fred.  You can't make that claim.  He doesn't say how he knew him, or when, or where.  But there were Pan Am flights into Hawaii, I believe. 

Brines is a researchable person.  We might find out more about him that would make the letter more or less plausible.

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"Suggestions" have no evidentiary value whatsoever.  Correct.  You have stated in several replies to forum contributors that "What is freely asserted is freely denied". Not always with those words but in principle. But we are allowed to "freely assert" our suggestions.  You are allowed to "freely deny" these suggestions. and vice versa.

I have entertained your suggestion.  I have done a review of what we have in hand.  I have discussed what I have found in detail, and explained the inferences I have drawn from that material.

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Evidence can support a "suggestion" or it can destroy it. Now look at your information you say is your coherent account. The same page I provided in my link. Under the "Delayed in Lae" wiki page  http://tighar.org/wiki/Personnel_unfitness#.22Personnel_unfitness.22.  So we both used the same reference material.

There is two differences I can think of.  I'm the author of the page, and I expanded it today.

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Granted for different purposes yet I'm called a psychic.  Where on that page does it say FN was NOT drinking?  It doesn't. Just like it doesn't say he WAS drinking.  It just presents information to allow the reader to form their own opinion.

You have added no new evidence to the site, other than to register your suspicions about Fred.  That's not "evidence" of any kind.
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I am not going to further respond to your psychic comments. I read information on and off this forum and form my thoughts based on what I read and see. You may chose to disagree.  For instance the light at Nauru being 5600 feet above sea level. I provided links to information that shows Nauru Island that's essentially flat and 180 feet above sea level. I provided another link to the tallest buildings and structures in the world. I believe the 5600 foot tower is a typo. I believe the tower was shorter than 5600 feet.  No clairvoyance. Others disagree with me.

I agree that the 5600-foot light is a conundrum.  Thanks for the links.  That, too, is a researchable topic.  We may be able to find out more about the purpose and placement of that light and find its true height.  But the real height of the light won't change much in our imaginative reconstructions of what Fred could have, should have, or would have done. 

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It is their right. Just as it is your right to disagree with me.  However I suggest the legal system is made up of two sides who both believe they are right.  In this forum, who is the judge, providing fair and impartial comments without allowing personal bias and attack to creep in?

Every reader is a judge who decides what they will accept as valid evidence and trustworthy reasoning. 

If you're calling for my resignation as a member of the webteam or removal as a moderator of the Forum, please feel free to do so.  In that case, Ric Gillespie and Pat Thrasher, acting on behalf of TIGHAR's board of directors, are the judges.

I did not ask for anyone's resignation. It is one thing to state your case for your opinion as a forum contributor. It is yet another to claim a contributor has crank ideas or is doing psychic research or, as with others, claim they are fantasizing.  Forum etiquette should suggest that everyone's comments or posts be respected equally. In particular the administrator should hold himself to the highest standard and set the example regardless of his personal opinion.

I respect Marty's knowledge and as I have stated in the past he has a tough job with newbies going over old, seemingly "everyone should know this" ground.  However I take exception to ANY post by anyone in this forum who personally attacks others. Take exception with their opinion by all means. Post evidence that substantiates your position.  But do NOT say it in a personal negative manner.  If I am wrong and personal attacks are fair game then I will leave this forum. I do know one thing and that is if you hold someone to your standards then you are the judge. Marty has replied that the Individuals on this forum are the judges. That's good enough for me.

I am being told that I have not advanced evidence of FN's drinking. Where does it state that I must advance evidence of anything?  Are you suggesting that to not advance evidence is some form of failure on my part?  I am not allowed to advance thoughts based on current evidence?

Marty accepted his position. It comes with higher standards than a regular contributor.  I happen to think he does a hell of a job. His forum management and topical knowledge are excellent. 

However, lets look at his responses on the Brines letter.  He says it may be evidence but it hasn't been proven as such. It might be someday  He also says it's psychic research. Well Marty which is it?  I am supposed to say your right and I'm wrong based on that??  Let's agree Marty to disagree.

Many times I have agreed with his statements and position but If Marty gets frustrated by people like me then he has to decide how to handle it.  Who raised the idea of him resigning?  It sure wasn't me.  Read the threads.

And like Jeff, if TIGHAR decides to throw me off this forum then it has been a pleasure and I am sorry I wont be able to read or contribute any further. I'll just keep talking with others.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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John Kada

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #168 on: January 07, 2012, 09:41:48 PM »

In reply #171, Marty makes the sensible suggestion that:

"Brines is a researchable person.  We might find out more about him that would make the letter more or less plausible."

A quick Google search turns up a brief obituary of Brines at:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1320&dat=19820625&id=ESsgAAAAIBAJ&sjid=wukDAAAAIBAJ&pg=6295,3418939

Furthermore, Google indicates that the University of Wyoming's American Heritage Center has Brines's papers:

Brines, Russell
Papers, 1924-1982
4 cubic ft. (4 boxes)
Acc. # 08894
Russell Brines (1911-1982) was an Associated Press journalist who covered World War II in the Philippines and Japan and also the Korean War. He was an expert on Japanese and Asian affairs and author of the book MacArthur's Japan.

Collection contains personal and professional correspondence; research files on Japan, Vietnam and communist expansion in Asia; 3 scrapbooks; 1 audiocassette tape of a memorial for Brines in Japan; the manuscript for MacArthur's Japan; photographs of the Allied occupation of Japan after World War II, the Korean War and Brines; and miscellaneous memorabilia.

Perhaps a Tighar member could have a look at these papers and see if anything in them sheds light on whether Brines is a credible source of information of FN's drinking habits.
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Alfred Hendrickson

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #169 on: January 07, 2012, 09:57:54 PM »

Sorry, I gotta ask . . .

Irvine Donald, and Jeff Neville: Where do you get the idea that you're gonna be tossed off this forum? No one has suggested or threatened that, have they?

 ???
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #170 on: January 07, 2012, 09:59:46 PM »

Good post John. I appreciate the thoughts and idea.  I do believe Brines existed as a person. The current Brines Letter has not been authenticated by TIGHAR but I believe it to be real. That doesn't mean I necessarily believe the contents to be valid. Some people don't believe Gore Vidal and his story. This falls into the same category. Just because it's written doesn't make it true.  In fact neither does TIGHAR.  Look here at http://tighar.org/wiki/Delayed_in_Lae. Check out the Brines letter section.

Thanks for your input.
Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Alfred Hendrickson

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #171 on: January 07, 2012, 10:10:20 PM »


Furthermore, Google indicates that the University of Wyoming's American Heritage Center has Brines's papers:

Brines, Russell
Papers, 1924-1982
4 cubic ft. (4 boxes)
Acc. # 08894
Russell Brines (1911-1982) was an Associated Press journalist who covered World War II in the Philippines and Japan and also the Korean War. He was an expert on Japanese and Asian affairs and author of the book MacArthur's Japan.

Collection contains personal and professional correspondence; research files on Japan, Vietnam and communist expansion in Asia; 3 scrapbooks; 1 audiocassette tape of a memorial for Brines in Japan; the manuscript for MacArthur's Japan; photographs of the Allied occupation of Japan after World War II, the Korean War and Brines; and miscellaneous memorabilia.

Perhaps a Tighar member could have a look at these papers and see if anything in them sheds light on whether Brines is a credible source of information of FN's drinking habits.

UW - my alma mater. Its 300 miles away from my home. What a fun assignment. Sift thru boxes of papers looking for something that would shed light on whether Brines would know about Noonan's tendency to imbibe. I've not ever taken on a task like this. Is it normal for places that hold these types of collections to allow researchers to dig thru them?
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #172 on: January 07, 2012, 10:23:41 PM »

I did not ask for anyone's resignation. It is one thing to state your case for your opinion as a forum contributor. It is yet another to claim a contributor has crank ideas or is doing psychic research or, as with others, claim they are fantasizing.  Forum etiquette should suggest that everyone's comments or posts be respected equally. In particular the administrator should hold himself to the highest standard and set the example regardless of his personal opinion.

OK. 

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I am being told that I have not advanced evidence of FN's drinking.

Yes.

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Where does it state that I must advance evidence of anything?

That is something I thought was an agreed-upon principle of reasoned discourse.

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Are you suggesting that to not advance evidence is some form of failure on my part? 

Yes.

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I am not allowed to advance thoughts based on current evidence?

To what "current evidence" are you referring?

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However, lets look at his responses on the Brines letter.  He says it may be evidence but it hasn't been proven as such.

Correct.  I'm being honest about the fact that we don't know for sure whether the letter is authentic or a very clever hoax.

That is based on information outside of the letter.  It is a fact that we do not have a good chain of evidence about how the letter came to TIGHAR that would help establish that it is authentic.

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It might be someday.

Yes.  Brines is dead, but some EPAC members have traced some of his family.  They may be able to say whether the letter is authentic or may have some information that would allow it to be identified as a hoax.

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  He also says it's psychic research. Well Marty which is it? 

Yes.  That is a judgment on the content of the letter.  This judgment is independent of whether or not the letter is authentic.  The letter writer has an idea in his head, but he reveals that he is in Honolulu and does not claim to have been in Lae watching Noonan get drunk. 

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I am supposed to say your right and I'm wrong based on that??  Let's agree Marty to disagree.

OK.

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Many times I have agreed with his statements and position but If Marty gets frustrated by people like me then he has to decide how to handle it.  Who raised the idea of him resigning?  It sure wasn't me.  Read the threads.

I raised the idea.  Someone asked me about who gets to judge who is acting reasonably and responsibly in the Forum.  I explained how I see the different levels of judgment that take place here.  I serve at the pleasure of the the TIGHAR executives, who act on behalf of the Board. 
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #173 on: January 07, 2012, 10:33:03 PM »


A little addition to the previous post about Russel Brines

Not only did he "work" for Associated Press, he became the Bureau Chief of the Tokyo Bureau. 
No Worries Mates
LTM   Harry (TIGHAR #3244R)
 
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #174 on: January 07, 2012, 10:48:27 PM »

A quick Google search turns up a brief obituary of Brines at:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1320&dat=19820625&id=ESsgAAAAIBAJ&sjid=wukDAAAAIBAJ&pg=6295,3418939

Furthermore, Google indicates that the University of Wyoming's American Heritage Center has Brines's papers: ...


Well done, John!  I've started an article on Brines with the material you found.  His obituary suggests that he was in Hawaii at least from 1933 to 1939, which gives him time to get to know Noonan personally and then to write the letter from Honolulu in 1937.

Thanks for taking time to Google and then report the results here.  Very much appreciated!
LTM,

           Marty
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #175 on: January 07, 2012, 10:54:18 PM »

Is it normal for places that hold these types of collections to allow researchers to dig thru them?

Yes.  The reasons libraries collect archives is to allow people to use them for research.

The best thing to do is to call the library and ask, politely, under what conditions you might be able to view the collection.

If you go to the archive, ask them if they have a "finding aid" or some other index to the collection.

Then it depends on how you want to dig after that.  Going through materials from 1933 to 1937 might solidify whether  and what kind of contact he had with Fred.  There might be other July-August 1937 letters on Amelia's disappearance.  After that, it's up to you to decide what to do with the net 45 years of materials. 

Take copies of the letter with you to show the archivist.  The original might be in the archive.

Don't say "TIGHAR sent me" unless you get a formal letter from Ric or Pat on TIGHAR stationery to that effect.  All you have to say is that it's a topic that interests you.
LTM,

           Marty
           TIGHAR #2359A
 
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Irvine John Donald

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #176 on: January 07, 2012, 11:33:30 PM »

Sorry, I gotta ask . . .

Irvine Donald, and Jeff Neville: Where do you get the idea that you're gonna be tossed off this forum? No one has suggested or threatened that, have they?

 ???

Hi Alfred. Thanks for that great question. Don't apologize for it.  I can only speak for myself at this point. I have seen one other forum contributor tossed from this forum. Mr Van Asten. He submitted posts that challenged many people in terms of technical issues. A lot of the information he posted was in doubt as to source and validity.  The reason he was tossed should come from Marty and Ric. They tossed him. I have also seen Gary Lapook censured due to a posting he made regarding Bob Brandenburg's authority as an expert.  I believe that was a valid censure due to my personal belief that you should be able to object to someone's statements or opinions but without making them personal. I think Gary crossed that line. The posting in question was removed pretty quickly so I have nothing to quote. No evidence. Perhaps he didn't. He can ably speak for himself.

Lately I feel I have had my opinions personally attacked.  Without censure to the offending party.  This forum should apply its rules, policies and procedures equally to all members across the board. Without exception.   

I have also spoken with other forum members re this situation. Not on the forum. There is a general feeling that speaking out against the TIGHAR hypothesis will bring some form of personal attack. This negatively effects forum input by all members. New and old.

No one has suggested I may be tossed but the general tone of recent responses to my posts has been personal in nature. It feels similar to the way Mr Van Asten was handled. Essentially told I'm not advancing evidenciary proof.  My ideas are not founded in evidence and I'm doing crank and psychic research.  Same as Van Asten.  Am I taking this personally?  Yes.  I'm human.  One of two things will happen. Either I choose to go or I will say something that is used to toss me. That simple.

Respectfully Submitted;

Irv
 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #177 on: January 08, 2012, 12:54:35 AM »

Sorry, I gotta ask . . .

Irvine Donald, and Jeff Neville: Where do you get the idea that you're gonna be tossed off this forum? No one has suggested or threatened that, have they?

 ???
I think Gary crossed that line. The posting in question was removed pretty quickly so I have nothing to quote. No evidence. Perhaps he didn't. He can ably speak for himself.

I have also spoken with other forum members re this situation. Not on the forum. There is a general feeling that speaking out against the TIGHAR hypothesis will bring some form of personal attack. This negatively effects forum input by all members. New and old.


For the record, I have no heartburn over that post of mine being removed, it was late at night and I was being quite crotchity. As to Mr. van Asten's situation, it was my complaint I think that led to his ouster. It was not that he was advancing celestial navigation theories that were demonstrably wrong, I had spent lots of time corresponding with him both on line and offline to help educate him about celestial navigation. My complaint was that he was being dishonest and purposefully deceptive in leaving out of a quote, that he claimed supported his position, the middle portion of the quoted material, that he replaced with an ellipsis, that said exactly the opposite. Fortunately I had a copy of the book from which he was quoting. (You can read my complaint here.) We're all entitled to our opinions and we can advance them with cites to evidence or to logic that supports them. However, this does not include being purposefully deceptive and dishonest in carrying on this discourse.

As to the second part I quoted above, I have been speaking out against the TIGHAR hypothesis since 2002 (in fact, I may be the naysayer in chief) and I don't remember any personal attacks.

gl
« Last Edit: January 08, 2012, 02:31:25 AM by Gary LaPook »
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JNev

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #178 on: January 08, 2012, 06:51:50 AM »

Brines - interesting fellow, thanks for that link.

You're welcome.  I'm the one who introduced Brines into this thread.  I found the letter by using the search engine, which is free and available to anyone to use to find things like this on the website.

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Interesting update on the new / updated "Delayed in Lae" / Brines letter / 'Observations' page.  That was fast.

No, it took an hour of hard work.

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I get it now -

As some see it (and I can understand why), if FN is considered disabled at a crucial time in the flight, the LOP cannot have a rational basis.

The LOP must be reliable - AE said she was on it.

No, I agree, we just can't have FN being drunk.

Nothing to that effect is on that page.

Do you understand that it is not appropriate in an argument to impute a position to the other that is different from what the other person has said?

I'm not arguing anything, Marty.  I'm not taking that conclusion from the "Delayed" page, either -

It's rather a summary realization of what is evidently very important to you - it dawned on me after considering what you did in your hour of hard work (that was fast).

Just as you have your opinions, that's mine.  You, and other readers, are free to decide if the shoe fits, but I'm glad you got the point.

LTM -
- Jeff Neville

Former Member 3074R
 
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: The flight plan, magnetic course, headwinds.
« Reply #179 on: January 08, 2012, 07:50:23 AM »

I'm not arguing anything, Marty.  I'm not taking that conclusion from the "Delayed" page, either -

OK.  We start with an admission that you have no argument and no evidence to back up what you're saying.

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It's rather a summary realization of what is evidently very important to you - it dawned on me after considering what you did in your hour of hard work (that was fast).

Just as you have your opinions, that's mine.  You, and other readers, are free to decide if the shoe fits, but I'm glad you got the point.

Ah.  I see that we disagree about what is and is not "evident," and therefore what counts as evidence.

You are reasoning from a "realization" about how my mind works, not from anything that I've written.

Thanks for letting me know what's "evidently very important" to me.  I clearly can't gainsay your revelation.  Any effort to show that you have misunderstood me would be "defensive," and "defensiveness" is evidence that your "realization" is true.  And if I classify a position adopted without argument and without evidence as "psychic investigation," then I am insulting your intelligence and scaring other hypothesizers away from the Forum.   :-\
LTM,

           Marty
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