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Author Topic: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?  (Read 80981 times)

Dan Swift

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #75 on: March 26, 2012, 08:46:23 AM »

That 727 had to have a low altitude warning system on it.  The Pilots would have known they were at a dangerous altitude plenty of time to recover.  Unless there was something else wrong or going on. 
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Gary LaPook

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #76 on: March 26, 2012, 10:34:40 AM »

That 727 had to have a low altitude warning system on it.  The Pilots would have known they were at a dangerous altitude plenty of time to recover.  Unless there was something else wrong or going on.
Well,no. GPWS (Ground Proximity Warning System) was not yet developed in 1965 and this was one of the accidents that led to its development and for the FAA requiring it in airliners manufactured after 1974, nine years after this crash.

gl
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Dan Swift

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #77 on: March 26, 2012, 11:03:56 AM »

Wow, did not know it was that recent.  Before my time. 
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Andrew M McKenna

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #78 on: March 26, 2012, 11:48:28 AM »

Tom

You are way over estimating the ability of searchers to see something like the strut in the surf.  When you say "I would think..." you are only guessing.  The fact is that it is very hard to see stuff as small as the strut, or even a human being from 400 ft.  If you watch the aerial tour of Niku, it is hard to spot humans at 100 ft, never mind 400 ft and humans are larger than the strut.

You have to keep in mind the mindset of the searchers.  These guys were expecting to see a Lockheed Electra sitting on the beach, not scraps, or single humans.  When they didn't see an aircraft, they moved on despite the signs of recent habitation, etc.

In my mind, the probability of detection was very low given that there was no aircraft to be seen out on the beach or the reef flat.

Andrew



Evan---I dont disagree with what you are saying. In fact I would love to think that electra parts were on the reef and beach when Lambrecht fly over the island on July 9. He didnt report any 'visible' wreckage, only signs of recnet habitation. I would think that at 400+- feet he was flying at, and could see 'signs of recent habitation', he would also see parts of the electra on the reef or the beach. One of 2 things happend that day----Either the electra --all of it or including dislodged parts -were already over the reef ledge and out of visible site, or he didnt overfly the suspected area where the later inhabitants claim to have seen wreckage.
This also makes me wonder about the overflight in reguards to the Nessie picture. 'Something' is seen in the picture taken several months after the disappearance, and NOT seen 7 days after it happened. Now, if in fact Nessie is a landing gear strut visible in the picture, that means the it came off the plane sometime between july 2, and July 9, and the plane went over the reef ledge and out of sight from the air. It stands to reason that the search planes should have been able to see something breaking in the waves on the reef, unless the tide completely covered it. I would think that IF they saw it as not a part of the NC wreckage, they would have landed to investigate. If nothing else, to investigate the signs of inhabitation.
I'm just thinking that the overflight search may have been just that, flying over the island, and not really looking, just logging air time. I know thats a cruel thing to say. But, if Nessie IS a landing gear strut, how is it possible that it is there in the pic, and NOT there 7 days after the disappearance?
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #79 on: March 26, 2012, 11:54:49 AM »

Tom, the Gilbert island colonists say they saw aircraft wreckage at this location. So does that mean it couldn't have gone over the edge so soon as like, before the rescue search?
Maybe the navy fliers were looking for a crash site on land and didn't give the surf line a second glance?
Maybe because they had to look over the side of their planes to see they missed the plane as they followed the coastline around Niku?
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Gary LaPook

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #80 on: March 26, 2012, 03:55:28 PM »

Tom

You are way over estimating the ability of searchers to see something like the strut in the surf.  When you say "I would think..." you are only guessing.  The fact is that it is very hard to see stuff as small as the strut, or even a human being from 400 ft.  If you watch the aerial tour of Niku, it is hard to spot humans at 100 ft, never mind 400 ft and humans are larger than the strut.

You have to keep in mind the mindset of the searchers. These guys were expecting to see a Lockheed Electra sitting on the beach, not scraps, or single humans.  When they didn't see an aircraft, they moved on despite the signs of recent habitation, etc.
Ahem...that looks like speculation too.
Quote

In my mind, the probability of detection was very low given that there was no aircraft to be seen out on the beach or the reef flat.

Andrew

We discussed this before and the Probability of Detection tables from the National Search And Rescue Manual show a high probability of detection IF Earhart and Noonan had been on  the island. And when you watch the helicopter fly around you have no trouble seeing the people wading out to the boat in the lagoon and this section of the video was shot from out over the sea on the north side of the island which is as far away as you can get and still be searching the island so the Navy planes were not farther away than this. The only way they would not have been seen is if they were purposefully trying to hide in the brush, a highly unlikely event.

gl
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Colin Philip Cobb

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #81 on: March 26, 2012, 05:49:46 PM »

Interesting developments with tighar, and exciting to represent the Derry side of the Earhart story at the conference.   Regarding the Nessie photo there appears to be a large amount tyre visable in the photo which makes it hard to compute what the very small amount of tyre is clinging to ,to be battered over 3 months in the sea and still hold fast.
Scale is an issue from the distance involved.  To tear the plane from the landing gear one would expect the majority of the landing gear to be submerged and firmly lodged in a reef where all that would be visable would be the strut. In this photo nearly all of the tyre is visable.  I will never cease to be amazed at what the eye wants to see it will see.
Like the loch ness monster and it's classic black and White images from the 1930,s theres clearly something in the photo but is it the monster? Or a bale of hay , rotting vegetation , a man swimming , a boat, birds, wave formations. 
This summer we may get the answer.

Colin Cobb




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Tom Swearengen

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #82 on: March 26, 2012, 09:40:38 PM »

andrew---i agree with you too! I'm going to rethink my little theory and get back to everyone.
For whatever reasons, the signs of recent habitation didnt warrant the flight to land. Ok I got that. The Electra obviously wasnt there either. We are assuming that Nessie is the gear strut, and was there when Lambrecht searched the island. It may that been obscured by the water. At any rate, they didnt see it. If they had, and could have landed and investigated, we might be looking at a whole new ball game here.
Things that mysteries are made of. I'm sure I'll some answers to my dunb questions at DC.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #83 on: March 26, 2012, 10:58:55 PM »


Dan Swift
I remember that 727 crash you are referring to .  I had just returned to the suburban Chicago area after having been away in the Army, College, and Grad School for 8 years.

As I recall there were two such accidents involving the 727, a relatively new model plane at the time and the first commercial airliner, I think, with a "T" tail.  I recall speculation at the time that the elevator surfaces were not in air flow at certain nose-high configurations hence the pilot couldn't get the nose down and the plane stalled, spun and went into the Lake.

I don't remember whether they were on approach to OHare, Midway, of Meigs.

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Gary LaPook

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #84 on: March 26, 2012, 11:20:32 PM »



As I recall there were two such accidents involving the 727, a relatively new model plane at the time and the first commercial airliner, I think, with a "T" tail.  I recall speculation at the time that the elevator surfaces were not in air flow at certain nose-high configurations hence the pilot couldn't get the nose down and the plane stalled, spun and went into the Lake.

You're referring to a deep stall.

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Andrew M McKenna

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #85 on: March 27, 2012, 04:57:25 AM »

Yes, we've discussed the POD in the past.  You choose to interpret them your way, which is to give an unrealistically high probability.  I don't know anyone doing an actual search who would in practice assign such a high probability under the circumstances, but you wish to derive an unrealistically high probability to bolster your argument that AE was never on Niku, so use them as you wish.  I can't change your mind.

What you are saying is that if AE were half dead after a week with little water, lying back in the bush to get out of the sun, unable to get out in the open during the time that the aircraft were overhead, you would have seen her anyway since the probability tables (as you interpret them) say you would have.  That to me is unrealistic, you don't have to be purposely hiding to get missed during a search, subjects get missed all the time.  How would that be possible with PODs so high?

You must have some set of eyes, my friend, and since they are so good, I ask you where are the other 6-8 people who are were on the ground when the video was taken?  I know where they are, and I still can't see them even when the camera zooms in on them.  IF, when the helicopter came over, instead of wading in the lagoon, we all happened to be traversing the island from lagoon to beach under the canopy, which takes a good 15 minutes, we would have been impossible to spot, even with your eyes.

I would also like to point out that the video of the guys wading out is generally highly zoomed by the cameraman and doesn't accurately represent the ability of the Mark I eyeball.  The helicopter is also at considerably lower altitude than we believe the Navy aircraft.  If it weren't for the orange Naiad, the focus of the camera, and the fact that there are 3 of them, they'd be much more difficult to spot.   Not nearly an equivalent situation as spotting a single person from 400 ft without a skiff, even if they are in the open.

Think about it this way.  How many individual trees can you identify as individual and distinct in the Aerial Tour.  Using your POD methodology, you should be able to see and distinguish at least 85% of the individual tree trunks, but I seriously doubt that you can.  If AE was leaning against one of them, you'd miss her.

Your assumptions might apply for people standing out in the water or on the beach, but when you consider short duration of the overhead flight, the foliage, and the difficulty of getting into an open spot on the ground if you don't happen to be in one, your assertion that there would be a high probability of being seen is hopelessly optimistic given the scenario. 

Andrew



We discussed this before and the Probability of Detection tables from the National Search And Rescue Manual show a high probability of detection IF Earhart and Noonan had been on  the island. And when you watch the helicopter fly around you have no trouble seeing the people wading out to the boat in the lagoon and this section of the video was shot from out over the sea on the north side of the island which is as far away as you can get and still be searching the island so the Navy planes were not farther away than this. The only way they would not have been seen is if they were purposefully trying to hide in the brush, a highly unlikely event.

gl
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« Last Edit: March 27, 2012, 09:05:26 AM by Andrew M McKenna »
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #86 on: March 27, 2012, 10:47:48 AM »

One good point from the Nessie photo is that it gave the team a reference point from which to begin the underwater search of the reef. That and the eye witness accounts from the colonists led to the ROV footage and now, a full blown attempt to see what all this junk is, or was.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #87 on: March 27, 2012, 12:39:24 PM »


Humourously, a lesson to be learned, Don't crop the photo till ya see all there is to be seen.
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Jeff Victor Hayden

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #88 on: March 27, 2012, 12:45:24 PM »

As a matter of interest, how deep was the water at the location of Nessie? there seems to be an awful lot of 'tyre' showing in the photo, looks to be a matter of inches but again, it's all down to scale.
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Harry Howe, Jr.

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Re: What was the fate of Fred Noonan, site of camp?
« Reply #89 on: March 27, 2012, 01:17:34 PM »


Jeff N
I remember taking a Logic Course (Symbolic Logic 3101), a large portion of which was devoted to recognizing logical fallacies.  One of the fallacies was called "Appeal To Venerable Authority".
We see it all the time.  Such as What is good for General Motors is Good for the Country. or my favorite (paraphasing) President Richard Nixon, The President can do no wrong, I am your President,: I can do no wrong.  "Your President is not a Crook"  We all know how that turned out.

In this case I think that Ric and others have done a marvelous job in getting the "high-level" folks on board to lend credibility to the Niku search and give  whatever assistance (financial and/or otherwise) that they can.
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