Why not climb above the clouds?

[Denise Kelsey]

I'm not a pilot, and I know even less about celestial navigation, so apologies if this is a dumb question or it's already been addressed, but...

If they were flying through clouds and overcast all night, and really needed a star sighting to clarify their position, calculate drift, etc., why not pop above the clouds long enough to get a sight and figure out your position? Would the overcast exceed the Electra's service ceiling? From what I can find online that's 19-21,000 ft (depending on source). Would it consume too much fuel? Surely (Shirley?) they had a reserve.

My thought would be "Well, I'll just pop my head out of the clouds and take a look-see..."

Or would a sighting during the night not really have helped enough to avoid the final outcome?

[Don White]

I noticed that no one has replied to you and I don't want your question to go unanswered, although I am not a pilot either.

First, we don't know that they didn't try going above the clouds. Maybe they did, and the clouds were still blocking the view. Maybe they got a sighting and it didn't help the next morning. Their plan was to use celestial and dead reckoning to get to within RDF range of Howland, then use radio to get close enough for visual contact -- the same system used by Pan Am on their commercial lights at the time, with which Noonan was familiar. The breakdown that caused their loss was the RDF not working as intended, so they had only visual contact available. They reported being on a line that ran through Howland (and there has been discussion of whether they really were on that line), but did not know where they were on the line, other than that they could not see Itasca (which was making smoke to be more visible) nor Howland, which suggests they were beyond the horizon from them (later observers who have flown over Howland have noted that it is very hard to spot from the air even if you know exactly where to look).

Second, climbing higher takes fuel, and the flight was going to be near the limit of their range; they had instructions -- which they were supposed to follow -- on how to maximize efficiency and range.

Third, even if they got to the maximum altitude, their cabin was unpressurized and had no oxygen supply, so being able to breathe at 21,000 feet might be a challenge.

Don W
 

[Colin Taylor]

Thats a good question because even a single celestial fix would have allowed them to correct their track and then a standard search procedure would have found the island.

The radio transcripts tell us that they climbed to 10000, their intended final cruise level but then they descended to 8000, incurring a fuel penalty. I think the only explanation is that they were in icing conditions at 10000 (been there, done that) which is quite normal at that height, even in the tropics. Ice accretion on the airframe and engines was intolerable and so they were stuck below the high clouds at 8000. More on this in my article, Drift in the dark.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1arquMxBkJa-IBxmJYP1vgvWuETapBS1s5eM-HPKyilk/edit?usp=sharing

Cheers
Colin   

[Denise Kelsey]

Thank you to you both, Don and Colin.

[Matt Revington]

MSL stands for mean sea level, these are FAA recommendations for altitude (in ft) without oxygen which I believe was the case for AE
20,000 ft without a pressurized cabin or supplemental oxygen would have suicide

[Diego Vásquez]

Hi Colin –

I enjoyed reading your article.  I don't have enough of a background in meteorology to really understand your arguments about the likelihood of mistaken wind direction in the weather reports.  That said, I have just a few comments and questions.

Did the weather forecasters at the time not have the same knowledge that you do about the effect of pressure differential on wind direction near the equator?  If so, one would think they would have taken this into account when making their forecast.  Or were reports of the pressure differences not available to them at the time of their forecast?

As for your theory that AE got within 20 miles north of Howland, I believe Itasca reported scattered clouds (or something like that, just going from memory) at Howland, overcast or heavy clouds 40 miles to the N/NW, and clear to the south of Howland to the horizon. As Gary Lapook has pointed out, the sun and moon were both visible that morning, giving Noonan a very easy and accurate two-position fix if they were ever in the relatively clear area within a 40 mile radius of Howland (maybe extend the area in which they couldn't have been a bit further to the south to take into account that Baker was about 45 miles S/SE).  This makes it extremely unlikely that they got within 20 miles of Howland.

Here's a weather question for you though. As best I recall, the Gardner theory places them hitting the sunline about 200-225 miles south of Howland and with sufficient cloud cover that they couldn't have gotten a two-position fix on the sun and moon.  Since you are knowledgeable of meteorology and have some air pressure readings and perhaps other data to go on, can you offer any insight as to the chances of heavy cloud cover 40 miles N/NW of Howland, clear to the horizon south of Howland, but then heavy cloud cover again 200 miles south of Howland and extending another 150 miles or so to Gardner?  Were there any weather reports recorded for Baker or points south?  Thanks for whatever insight you can provide.

Diego V.

[Colin Taylor]

Hi Diego

I just put a new post about this at this link

https://tighar.org/smf/index.php?topic=2238.0

The forecast changed between 30th June and 1st July presumably the work of different forecasters with different opinions.
I had a look at a virtual planetarium and I think the Moon was up, but any star would give a position line if it could be seen and identified. It seems that Noonan was unable to do that.
Clearly reliable information is very sparse, so I cannot answer your question. However check out this Youtube interview with Lloyd Romeo containing pictures taken during the DSV expedition and showing the kind of cloud cover that is possible in that part of the world

https://www.youtube.com/live/MfHtc6SL_Zc?si=cCGe0qGAuZCGPm_N

Cheers
Colin