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Author Topic: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?  (Read 3932 times)

Scott C. Mitchell

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What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« on: November 28, 2019, 03:16:45 PM »

When the question is asked, where do we go from here, you can say that the methodical sleuthing work of TIGHAR has demonstrated from several different angles that Amelia and Fred managed to land the Lockheed Electra on Nikumaroro Island.  They spent several days sending radio calls for help.  After that–nothing.   A few tantalizing clues found near the castaway site.  A few relics of what could be parts of an aircraft.  But a shroud of mystery still covers the ultimate fate of the aircraft and the flyers.  To that can be added a more modest but intriguing mystery: what happened to all the stuff on the aircraft?   A review of the Luke Field Inventory indicates dozens of items that castaways would find useful and even necessary for survival: flashlights, many tools, batteries, hand-ax, signal pistol, sun helmets, cushions, life preservers, bag of supplies, first aid kit, thermos jugs, cords, numerous navigation tools and reference materials, hoses, compasses, flares, and many other items.   (Of course, the Luke Field Inventory is not an inventory of the World Flight–but it ought to be pretty indicative on what the aircraft carried on its last flight.) If the aircraft was indeed trapped in the coral reef as our scenario suggests, then Amelia and Fred would be hunkering down for the long haul until rescue – setting up a camp, falling into the routine of slogging out to the aircraft at every low tide to crank up the engine to run the radio.  It should not be a far-fetched assumption that they would fill their pockets on every trip with every conceivable survival implement.   The castaway site should be stockpiled with the stuff.  The local economy of the island in later years should be swimming with such artifacts.  So where are they?  The only answer that comes to mind is that such a stockpile exists at another location at the island, still waiting to be found-- a "home base" different from the castaway "lookout" camp.  I think the answer to the mystery of the ultimate fate of the flyers is tied to finding the possessions they would have salvaged from the aircraft. 
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Jeff Lange

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2019, 07:17:43 AM »

Oh no- there are those fateful "would" and "should" words popping up again. I'll let Ric and others address that line of reasoning.

You must keep in mind the dynamic weather forces that are in play at the Niku site. Just look at the Norwich City wreck, or what is left of it. The waves and winds in combination can be brutal! Look at what is left of the village areas which were inhabited for years and today because of the over wash from heavy storms there is almost nothing left. As for the aircraft itself-the best thing that could have happened was if it washed off the reef into deeper, calmer waters to have a chance of survival. So it is not surprising that no large "cache" of supplies has ever been found. Quite the opposite- I believe it is amazing that we have been able to locate the number of items that we have, and can connect them to Amelia and Fred.

Just my .02 worth on the subject.
Jeff Lange

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Scott C. Mitchell

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2019, 09:26:37 AM »

Jeff:  thanks for your comment.

I respectfully disagree with the notion that making stated assumptions about human conduct to test hypotheses is somehow faulty reasoning.  The challenge is to first identify the assumption so it is not hidden, and then test it based on what facts we know, and compare it to what we know of human conduct in similar situations.  In a hurried evacuation, leaving your "necessaries" behind is a reasonably expected outcome.  But the TIGHAR model is just the opposite; the plane is revisited numerous times over several days, to operate the radio.  Salvaging what supplies you can is pretty much automatic behavior for shipwrecked castaways.  The unstated assumption that a castaway would *not* salvage supplies would be harder to defend. 

Secondly, TIGHAR has already acknowledged the assumption of salvage by identifying artifacts we know were on the Luke Field Inventory, like the "Cattaraugus knife" found both on the inventory and at the campsite, as evidence that AE or FN inhabited the campsite.  My question is, where is the rest of the stuff?  Why use a penknife to cut firewood when you could use a hand-ax? [Luke Field Inventory].  We speculate that Fred was injured; why not retrieve the first aid kit [Luke Field Inventory].  Based on the reconstruction of tides and radio signals by Bob Brandenburg (TIGHAR Tracks, Vol. 28 #1) we know that there were occasions when the radio was operated at night, to make use of the low tide propeller clearance.  Is it farfetched that AE and FN would avail themselves of the many flashlights in the aircraft [Luke Field Inventory], and they instead repeatedly chose to stumble across the dangerous reef in the dark?

Your argument about the punishing weather conditions on the island is acknowledged.  But if a woman's delicate make-up compact case survived, why not a hand-ax and steel tools?  And would castaways really store their precious salvage where it is at risk from the ocean surge?  The castaways of the Norwich City did not do that; their cache survived intact.

The challenge we have before us is that the TIGHAR model (which in my judgment is a brilliant combination of evidence and inference, very compelling) firmly establishes that the Electra arrived at the island.  The model then takes us to the final radio signal on July 8.  To say at that point ". . . and then they died," is itself an assumption.  The missing equipment and supplies might be a clue to their ultimate fate.

Scott
#1392
« Last Edit: November 29, 2019, 10:17:33 AM by Scott C. Mitchell »
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Bill Mangus

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2019, 11:11:50 AM »

"Salvaging what supplies you can is pretty much automatic behavior for shipwrecked castaways.  The unstated assumption that a castaway would *not* salvage supplies would be harder to defend."

Personally I do not believe AE thought she/they were in a castaway, survival situation, at least not at first.  I believe she truly thought the Itasca (or someone) would find them, bring them some aviation gasoline and she would fly off and complete the flight.  Why take every- (any-) thing to the beach when they would just have to bring it back?  The last radio transmission showing a bit of panic perhaps, the rising tide -- higher than anything they had seen until then --  a storm possibly rising and a hurried evacuation to the beach meant mostly everything was left behind.

As Jeff said, just my $0.02 for what it's worth.
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2019, 03:32:53 PM »

I respectfully disagree with the notion that making stated assumptions about human conduct to test hypotheses is somehow faulty reasoning. 

You have plenty of company. The notion that making stated assumptions about human conduct to test hypotheses is valid methodology is one of the main reasons Earhart fate remained a mystery for so long. Would-be sleuths have been offering explanations for Earhart's fate based on stated assumptions since 1937.  No reasonable person would try to fly around the world without knowing Morse code, so Itasca sent the vast majority of their messages to Earhart in code.  No reasonable person would stop transmitting unless something catastrophic happened - like the engines quitting from fuel starvation. No reasonable person would think a transmission could be heard at maximum strength unless the aircraft was very close. Therefore the airplane crashed and sank near Howland. And so on.

In a hurried evacuation, leaving your "necessaries" behind is a reasonably expected outcome.  But the TIGHAR model is just the opposite; the plane is revisited numerous times over several days, to operate the radio.  Salvaging what supplies you can is pretty much automatic behavior for shipwrecked castaways.  The unstated assumption that a castaway would *not* salvage supplies would be harder to defend. 

I don't know where you get the "TIGHAR model". We have solid evidence the airplane landed on the reef north of Norwich City and remained there for the better part of a week. We have solid evidence the credible post-loss radio signals were sent during periods when the water level on the reef was low enough to permit operation of an engine.  We have good reason to believe Noonan was injured early on. We also have solid evidence that, in the end, Earhart ended up on shore with a few items.
We know from personal experience that it's hot on Niku.  We know from personal experience the reef is extremely slippery and difficult to walk on. We know as soon as there is about a foot water on the reef, the sharks start cruising.

That's about it.  We weren't there in 1937.  Stated assumptions about what Amelia Earhart or Fred Noonan would do, are guesses. 

My question is, where is the rest of the stuff?

I can think of two possibilities:
•  It didn't come ashore.
•  We haven't found it yet - but not for lack of trying.

The missing equipment and supplies might be a clue to their ultimate fate.

Yes. The evidence suggests very little came ashore, but that's an inference, not a fact.
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Andrew M McKenna

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2019, 06:08:39 PM »

Ric says

I can think of two possibilities:
•  It didn't come ashore.
•  We haven't found it yet - but not for lack of trying.
>>>>>>>.

Options 3 is it came ashore and was scavenged, used, absorbed by the colonists over time, they just never really gave much thought to how and where that material originated.

Andrew


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Randy Conrad

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2019, 11:32:21 PM »

Scott...I just read your recent post in regards to "stuff" left behind. I agree with many, and especially Bob Ballard when his comments were.."that plane has to be there". Like many of us by now and all the artifacts, and expeditions done, and forensic dogs findings. We can't quit now. We've come so far to just give up! I think Andrew and Ric, and all of those who have been to Niku...that we are missing something here. My theory is to take one step back before we go any further. I know Jeff is working diligently on photo analysis of rivets on the patch, and he too has come a long way with all the mountains of photos and evidence he too has found. Its been a joint effort. But, for some reason we are definately missing a chapter in this story. There is a story to be told from the time she landed to the time the pilot flew over the island and indicated possible living conditions on Gardner. I also believe that the colonist and islanders know something, and I know Ric that interviews have been conducted and they too have added to the already piles of evidence, and the notebook by Betty is another notch in the ole evidence belt. I dont know how a 6000 pound aircraft without fuel can just disappear overnight if its washed off the reef. But, at the same time how colonists indicated it was there for a periodic time. One question I do have..is how long do you think it would take to disassemble the Electra if you had to hide it? Or if islanders and colonists were given the opportunity to hoarde the metals and any other stuff they could get their hands on? Overall, I'm convinced that we are walking past something here and we've missed the mark somehow. Not that we've done it intentionally...but we are missing something!
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2019, 09:07:52 AM »

We can't quit now. We've come so far to just give up!

Who said anything about giving up?

My theory is to take one step back before we go any further.

That's not a theory.

I dont know how a 6000 pound aircraft without fuel can just disappear overnight if its washed off the reef.

I do.  Plane washes over the edge, gets torn up by being slammed against the reef edge by incoming waves, sinks in the relatively shallow water near the reef edge where it is hidden from view by the surf.  That's not necessarily what happened, but that's what all of the available evidence suggests.

But, at the same time how colonists indicated it was there for a periodic time.

Former residents report seeing pieces of airplane wreckage, not an airplane.  Everything - the Bevington Photo, Emily Sikuli's account of seeing a piece of wreckage at the reef edge, John's Mim's account of seeing an airplane control cable used as fishing line leader, Tapania Taeke's recollection of seeing a piece of wing on the reef flat near the passage, Jeff Glickman's identification of light colored metal debris in the same area in a 1953 aerial photo, Pulekai Songivalu's memory of seeing part of an airplane on the lagoon shore across from the passage, artifacts we've found in the abandoned village (the piece of plexiglas and the possible heat shields) - all suggest an airplane that, over time, was increasingly broken up and scattered, with some pieces being washed ashore, salvaged, and re-purposed by locals.

One question I do have..is how long do you think it would take to disassemble the Electra if you had to hide it?

That would be quite a job without power tools.  Where would you hide it, and why?

Or if islanders and colonists were given the opportunity to hoarde the metals and any other stuff they could get their hands on?

The settlers certainly had every opportunity to hoard anything they found, but why would they? 

Overall, I'm convinced that we are walking past something here and we've missed the mark somehow. Not that we've done it intentionally...but we are missing something!

If large metal manmade objects that were there in 1937 must still be there, we have apparently also walked past the entire forward half of a 5,000 ton ship.
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Jon Romig

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2019, 07:26:25 PM »


If large metal manmade objects that were there in 1937 must still be there, we have apparently also walked past the entire forward half of a 5,000 ton ship.

(Sorry for the thread drift below)

Still, the engine blocks are still missing after many diligent, competent searches.

Possibilities:

1. The engine blocks washed onto the shore or into the lagoon? Nope, too heavy.

2. They were shattered beyond detection and scattered by wave activity in the surf zone? Our current best guess, but.... They were the heaviest, densest parts of the Electra. How would they NOT have migrated to deeper water faster than any other parts, and thus not have been shattered and scattered?

3. We just haven’t found them yet? I am starting to doubt this one.

4. The Electra was actually not wrecked in the shallows, despite pretty good evidence to the contrary? Maybe:
4A. It floated some distance before sinking, beyond the search zones to date.
4B. It had near-neutral buoyancy when it was washed off the reef, and “flew” some distance underwater before coming to rest, again beyond the search zones.
4C. Fred, for whom there is good evidence that he was manic and disassociated from reality on July 7, tried to fly the plane off the island, solo. The wreck is now at some unknown distance from Niku. This admittedly unlikely scenario could account for the Electra not being seen on July 9, the lack of artifacts associated with an orderly abandonment of the Electra, and Amelia’s solitary and apparently impoverished existence afterward.

(Back on thread)

Wasn’t there a lot of gear on the Electra that would have been extremely valuable for Amelia’s survival during her time at the Seven Site, but apparently never made it that far? For example, she was boiling water in small bottles that were poorly suited to the task. Wasn’t there something better for that purpose on the Electra? Surely obtaining safe water locally was a huge priority from the first day, and a method for boiling water developed and employed at Camp Zero. Are there other examples to be found by comparing the Seven Site and the Luke Field Inventory that suggest that the Electra (and all its gear) disappeared unexpectedly?
 

Jon
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: What happened to aircraft supplies & equipment?
« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2019, 10:29:48 AM »

Still, the engine blocks are still missing after many diligent, competent searches.

Possibilities:

1. The engine blocks washed onto the shore or into the lagoon? Nope, too heavy.

Agreed

2. They were shattered beyond detection and scattered by wave activity in the surf zone? Our current best guess, but.... They were the heaviest, densest parts of the Electra. How would they NOT have migrated to deeper water faster than any other parts, and thus not have been shattered and scattered?

With apologies to Monty Python, are you suggesting engines migrate?  I assume you mean - were moved downhill by gravity and hydrodynamic forces.  Ballard tested that hypothesis and found nothing.  So, assuming he did a thorough search, something else must have happened.

3. We just haven’t found them yet? I am starting to doubt this one.

I share your doubt.

4. The Electra was actually not wrecked in the shallows, despite pretty good evidence to the contrary? Maybe:
4A. It floated some distance before sinking, beyond the search zones to date.

If we’re going to discard pretty good evidence we have to offer credible alternative explanations.  The sextant box is a good example. We considered it to be pretty good evidence of Earhart’s presence at the Seven Site until a more credible alternative explanation came to light - but it doesn’t change the other pretty good evidence that places Earhart at the Seven Site.

4B. It had near-neutral buoyancy when it was washed off the reef, and “flew” some distance underwater before coming to rest, again beyond the search zones.

If we make enough assumptions and ignore enough evidence we can put the plane anywhere.

4C. Fred, for whom there is good evidence that he was manic and disassociated from reality on July 7, tried to fly the plane off the island, solo. The wreck is now at some unknown distance from Niku. This admittedly unlikely scenario could account for the Electra not being seen on July 9, the lack of artifacts associated with an orderly abandonment of the Electra, and Amelia’s solitary and apparently impoverished existence afterward.

See previous comment - but it would make a great movie.

Wasn’t there a lot of gear on the Electra that would have been extremely valuable for Amelia’s survival during her time at the Seven Site, but apparently never made it that far? For example, she was boiling water in small bottles that were poorly suited to the task. Wasn’t there something better for that purpose on the Electra? Surely obtaining safe water locally was a huge priority from the first day, and a method for boiling water developed and employed at Camp Zero. Are there other examples to be found by comparing the Seven Site and the Luke Field Inventory that suggest that the Electra (and all its gear) disappeared unexpectedly?

The "would have" fallacy strikes again. We have no information about what supplies and tools were aboard the Electra aside from the artifacts we’ve found at the Seven Site, and all we know about their situation, health, and mental state in the days following their arrival is what can be gleaned from the post-loss radio messages.  Was the Electra lost unexpectedly or did circumstances limit what could be brought ashore?
« Last Edit: December 02, 2019, 07:21:18 AM by Ric Gillespie »
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