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Author Topic: Post-Loss Language  (Read 98136 times)

jgf1944

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2015, 11:03:00 AM »

oops. The absence of my reply to Brian T. in the preceding post was a function of me having forgotten some Forum lessons. I know good Father Moleski must be shaking his head.
      Back to the deep end after a bit of splashing around in the kiddie pool.   
Guthrie
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jgf1944

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Re: Devil's advocate
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2015, 12:09:25 PM »

An obvious issue, it seems to me, is the small sample size for the baseline.  The baseline comprises two example cases and three people.  Is this strong enough to establish a pattern?   
My knowledge of psychological research is nonexistent, so I'm asking this out of total ignorance:  Is it acceptable practice to use a small sample size, when the circumstances require it?  Does it affect how we view the conclusions?
Super question, Brian. And BTW, I would invite you to strike the word "ignorance" relative to anything you wrote in your posting. You're the type of "student" that profs dream about having!
   No question that language informaton from 100 lost aviators in life-threatening situations would be preferred to the three lost aviators I reported. For example, with this larger "norm group," there might not have been any of the sequence patterning (i.e., Desperation follows Objective and Subjective) found in the LBG and Lancaster diaries. In that event, I am not sure where I would have taken the research…if anywhere! My point being that in science, there is no such thing as too much data.
   Frankly, I was able to find only three cases with the needed bulllet points: professional aviators, lost, few survival assets, incommunicado in a life-threatening situation (as per heat and absence of fresh water), and producing enough language to be scored. One thing I particularly like about Ric's understanding of science is that scientific knowledge is not static, but rather an organic, growing thing. Indeed, one reason that I was happy that Ric posted my work was to see if Forum members might offer more "Lady Be Good" cases (that I might have overlooked). Also, do my findings pertain to other types of cases, like people trapped unto death in freezing situations or in lifeboat situations; the tough part is the necessity that some sort of language record is needed for scoring and comparing to baseline.
    I may have some more info on the baseline question soon. My bookfinding service alerted me that a copy of an out of print book on the psychology of extreme situations has been found in England, and I ordered it…arrival in a couple of weeks I'm told by the middleman….I keep my fingers crossed. The book may have info relevant to your small baseline question.
    Thanks for your close attention to my work, Brian. Perhaps your analytical mind might be more at ease with the synopsis that this Ford fellow presented somewhat limited evidence suggesting that Amelia Earhart may have been the person who made transmissions from a place that might have been Nikumararo. Such dubiousness, BTW, has a postive effect on most scientists through motivating them to make their cases even more compelling and bullet-proof.
   It's working on me right now.
   Guthrie


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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2015, 12:17:51 PM »

Ric,
1."Strength 5" means 200nm (or less) off Itasca. Why are you so sure about that?
2. 157 337 is what AE said. There is no evidence she was ever on that LOP.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2015, 12:51:04 PM by Oskar Erich Heinrich Haberlandt »
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2015, 12:39:50 PM »

Dr. Ford,
Were there any written words from any of the survivors of the soccer team crash in Peru (I believe)?
Ted Campbell
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Ric Gillespie

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2015, 01:04:16 PM »

1."Strength 5" means 200nm off Itasca. Why are you so sure about that?

Sorry.  I thought that by now everyone on the Forum was aware of Bob Brandenburg's computer modeling of the Electra's antenna system and his discovery of "The 3105 Donut."  See attached.

 
2. 157 337 is what AE said. There is no evidence she was ever on that LOP.

The evidence that she was on that LOP is that she is reported in a primary source document (the Itsaca log) to have said she was "on the line 157 337."  Noonan certainly had the capability of determining such a line.  It made perfect sense for her to be on that line. What basis do you have for doubting that she was on that line?
If we're going to discount information in a primary source document we have to have a good reason. We can reasonably assume she did not say she was "circling" because we can see in the original document that the original entry was "drifting." That word was erased and "circling" was added later.  See Things Not Said.  If we're going to willy-nilly start picking and choosing which of her statements we're going to believe we can put her anywhere. 
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2015, 01:14:15 PM »

Dr. Ford,
One more possible data set might be found by following the tail of the crash here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_at_Kufra

Ted Campbell
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jgf1944

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2015, 01:20:19 PM »

Were there any written words from any of the survivors of the soccer team crash in Peru (I believe)?
   Hi Ted;I am Guthrie (thanks for complimenting my work per the LGII offer). We'll soon know about that Andes crash. The book was just republished last year and a copy is speeding to me as I type. I remember reading about his survial case close to when it occurred, and I do not think that individuals kept private diaries or logs. Of course we know Desperation was in the mix relative to the life/death necessity of consuming human flesh. I can imagine the initial period being Objective as per making factual observations and performing survival behaviors to prevent death from hypothermia. In turn, I presume there was a Subjective period when attention began to focus inwardly. But I will soon know and will post once I become informed. Thanks for the headsup.
Guthrie
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Greg Daspit

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2015, 02:04:50 PM »

Some other possible sources
Nada Jean Chaney
Jerry William McDonald
Edit :also
Mike Turner
3971R
 
« Last Edit: September 28, 2015, 02:45:15 PM by Greg Daspit »
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jgf1944

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2015, 03:59:12 PM »

One more possible data set might be found by following the tail of the crash here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_at_Kufra
    Good catch, Ted! Essentially another Lady Be Good situation, except the crewmen were members of the South African Air Force--SAAF. And blessings of blessings, what appears to be the definitive study of this case has been digitized:2001 Journal.
    Synopsis. A flight of three twin-engine bombers commanded by Major J L V de Wet became lost during a training mission in May 1942. Fuel shortage caused the aircraft to land (without incident), thus commencing the crew's tragic end. Unlike LBG, the crews stayed with their aircraft. All expired apparently of dehydration or gunshot wounds self-afflicted or via "mercy" pleadings. Psychological and behavioral information are provided by de Wet's diary, quotes from which are in the Journal and from the later testimony of Air Mechanic N St M Juul who barely survived the EIGHT (8) day ordeal. 
    I scored each day per the scoring system described in my paper. Below I list left to right the Day1 to Day8 SAAF. Directly below those scores are the corresponding Aviation Language Baseline Test baseline values. ("none" means not addressd in Journal article; IMO, if de Wet wrote those days, the scores would be OD.)
           
           SAAF    O    O    OD    none    OD    OD    none    OD
           ALBT    O    O     OS     OD     OD    OD      OD     OD
   
The important Desperate preceded by Objective rule obtained, and the six SAAF scores attained five matches with baseline--just about as good as it gets for the ALBT. (Yo Brian Tannahill: I hope you're reading about this additonal case for the language baseline norm group!)
   Thanks, Ted, for birddogging yet one more piece of evidence to strengthen the proposal that Amelia Earhart trasmitted on the Electra radio between at least 2-7 July, 1937; and did so most likely on Nikumararo Island (aka Gardner)--I view my data as the conceptual complement of the Brandenburg Direction Finding data--see paper, page 17.
    Guthrie

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jgf1944

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2015, 04:10:20 PM »

Some other possible sources
     Thanks Greg. I've seen one but will check out the others.
     Guthrie
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jgf1944

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #25 on: September 28, 2015, 07:03:07 PM »

This is to offer another case history for his analysis:  The journals of Robert Falcon Scott, who died with his companions on the return journey from the South Pole
.
    Scott, thank for your interest in my work. I did read the R F Scott Journal per your suggestion. Is is, IMO, somewhat different from the sources I used in the paper in that Scott wrote quite a bit about what was happening to his colleagues rather than what was happening to him. In other words, the journal seemed to me in the mold of a journalist describing a complex situation rather a diarist describing his or her private subjective and desperate thoughts and feelings. Nevertheless, please keep an eye peeled for historical cases of extreme survival that would increase the validity of the ALBT findings about Amelia Earhart. LTM.
   Guthrie   
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Scott C. Mitchell

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #26 on: September 28, 2015, 07:32:44 PM »

Dr. Ford:  Captain's Scott's writings may be in a different category altogether.  In the first place, he was known as a first-rate writer, so he strove to write well and coherently.  No stream of consciousness text in his journals, just lucid scientific reporting with plenty of British Edwardian grace under pressure.  Even more important,  from a psychological standpoint he had lost the race for the South Pole to Roald Amundsen, and Scott's team had been falling apart, with two men lost already, on the return journey.  So during those last days, he knew he was not coming back to glory.  His journal would be his testament.  All he had to live for was the hope that he could be seen as an example of how an English explorer faces down death as a gentleman, so his writing reflects that.  What actually passed between him and his doomed companians will never be known.  Finally, several polar explorers have described how easy and comfortable it can be to freeze to death.  The soporific effect of deep cold and endless wind outside the tent was a different scene from your aviator examples who used "hell" to describe their circumstances of dying of thirst in a scorching environment.  (Must say, though, I was once caught lost on a mountain in west Texas in a blizzard, and I am sure my diary, if I had kept one, would be rather consistent with your standard model.  It's a amazing--emotionally jarring--how fast a situation can go from normal to desperate.)  - Scott  #3292
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #27 on: September 28, 2015, 11:07:39 PM »

DR Ford,

There may be something in the record on John Morgan (see enclosed link)  that can give us additional data points in the D and O categories of your analysis.  John Morgan and I were good friends while we both worked for Texaco's International Aviation Dept.  John didn't crash but he did get the plane back to base.  He received the Medal of Honor for his efforts and subsequently the movie "Twelve O Clock High" was based upon his story.

I received the Texaco's "John Morgan" award and cherish it to this day.

Ted Campbell

http://www.merkki.com/morganjohn.htm
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jgf1944

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #28 on: September 29, 2015, 07:39:58 AM »

I received the Texaco's "John Morgan" award and cherish it to this day.
    Without even knowing what warranted you receiving the "John Morgan" award, I offer congratulations to you for being distinguished in the context of such a stellar American…seriously!
     G. 
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jgf1944

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Re: Post-Loss Language
« Reply #29 on: September 29, 2015, 09:40:13 AM »

  No stream of consciousness text in his journals, just lucid scientific reporting with plenty of British Edwardian grace under pressure.
   Scott. In the genre of tragic farewells, Wm. Lancaster's diary is a magnus opus that I believe you would enjoy; particularly given your apparent appreciation of Edwardian grace under pressure--Mr. Lancaster even works in "with chin held high" without it sounding cliché. The 16-page diary is in R. Barker, Verdict of a Lost Flyer,  St.Martin's, NY, 1969, and Amazon has very reasonably prized used volumes (the work is out of print). Enjoy. Cheerio.
Guthrie
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