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[Ric Gillespie]

It comes down to what TIGHAR would be: a repeater of missions Niku I - VIII on funds raised by emotional appeal...

I won't even begin....

[Bob Smith]

It looks like TIGHAR has only proven that people from a cruise ship were treated to an expeditionary thrill of witnessing history and loved it!  They've also proven the trip to the island can be unpredictable and dangerous, and that in the face of unpredicted hardship and failure of equipment and plans people can come up with ideas on how to pass the time and save a little face on an extremely complicated situation. But weren't they supposed to know that and learn from trips in the past? OK. Let's try something new. I mean something really new!
  1. Let's say we get a different boat (or ship) and plan to stock it with what we need to do the job we really need to do: this may break some hearts and we would miss old Nai'a, but we need a bigger boat.. because... we need bigger and better equipment, and two of some things incase one BREAKS DOWN!?
  2. Let's plan to do something really earthshaking, and find something that shows up on deep water instruments, sonar or other electronic devices that show a large metal object in  deep water! If we find something in more shallow water, that's OK too. But shoot for the big s tuff!
  3. Let's talk to other people who might want to help and who we can find evidence of actually being good at it with proven knowledge of methods and equipment needed to do what we want to do. We (TIGHAR) can't be the first and only people on earth who have ever wanted to do this.
  4. Let's leave the amateurs out of this. This is a job for professionals. Let them help us plan and share experiences so we can better know what path to take.

 THere's more of course, and you must get the idea, and have heard it before! I'm just an amateur, and a newby on the Forum, but all that's been proven from my observation is that nothing has been proven! Maybe Fred and Amelia were NEVER here.. we can't even prove that!  But, I'm pretty sure  that if they were ever on Nikumaroro they wouldn't be standing around waving a red flag and they would MOST LIKELY not leave a lot of evidence on top of the island even if they were alive for a time... I mean the big stuff.? Isn't it more likely they and the airplane ended at the bottom of the ocean, or at least a lower level. Just because the equipment more easily available goes to500 or 600 feet doesn't mean  the search area should be limited to that level. The equipment may be the wrong equipment! Go for the big struff. Get more money, better funding ideas, better promoters, better sponsers, whatever it takes, and don't go on another axpedition until we have the time and the money to plan it right!!

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

  1. Let's say we get a different boat (or ship) and plan to stock it with what we need to do the job we really need to do: this may break some hearts and we would miss old Nai'a, but we need a bigger boat.. because... we need bigger and better equipment, and two of some things incase one BREAKS DOWN!?

Maybe the Ka’Imikai-o-Kanaloa?

Maybe equipped with two commercial grade search vehicles?

Maybe with a great big budget raised by a world-class fundraiser?

Maybe with a three-person camera crew on board to produce a two-hour special?

Nah.  TIGHAR really doesn't want to go big.  One fellow thought that Ric just wants to keep raising money without finding anything--even conspiring with other TIGHARs to keep the fact that the plane has been definitively found.

I'm just an amateur, and a newby on the Forum,

Ah. 

[Bob Smith]

Yes Marty, in answer to your questions. Why is Niku getting so cheap! NikuVII seemed to get much more accomplished  than VIII. and without all the "pleasure cruise" atmosphere. Am I wrong?

[Martin X. Moleski, SJ]

Yes Marty, in answer to your questions. Why is Niku getting so cheap!

If you are willing to do a little work, you may be able to find the discussion of again using a big boat with big ROVs that would cost big bucks for this most recent expedition.

No bucks, no Buck Rogers.

The ROV they took should have been sufficient for studying the anomaly.

TIGHAR lost a major benefactor unexpectedly a week or so before the expedition.  Therefore, it could not afford to ship the backup ROV.  Therefore, as things turned out, they did not get exactly what they wanted.

That's life with people and with things that break.

There is no "scientific method" by which such frustrations can be avoided.  This is not a matter of pure logic, mathematics, physics, chemistry, or biology.  Those are the sciences that have some methods that can produce reliable and repeatable results in controlled experiments.

I estimate that Ric has led more than 50 research expeditions in his lifetime.  I don't understand what "professionals" people think are available who could do a better job than he has in organizing and leading these expeditions.  No one knows Niku better than he does.  The only candidates are the people who have followed him there.

Yes, hindsight is twenty-twenty vision.  Any Monday-morning quarterback can imagine how things should have been done after Ric tells the story of what went wrong.  They really should bookmark this page to help them present their invaluable insights to the waiting world.

NikuVII seemed to get much more accomplished  than VIII. and without all the "pleasure cruise" atmosphere. Am I wrong?

Did you actually read about the big ship, the big systems, and the big budget on Niku VII? 

What part of "we could not raise the funds to do that again" don't you understand?

[Oskar Erich Heinrich Haberlandt]

Marty, I guess, TIGHAR has to go big or it will never succeed. Finding a really BIG SPONSOR will be the only way to find the remains of the plane (if AE was ever there)
GELD REGIERT DIE WELT! Money makes the world go round!

[Dale O. Beethe]

TIGHAR can only use what they can raise the money to do.  If I'm not mistaken, the original intent for this trip was to have a manned submersible to investigate the slope.  Unfortunately, the funds weren't there to do that.  In a perfect world, some benevolent billionaire would step forward and underwrite whatever equipment was needed with the understanding he wouldn't sue if results were not what he wanted.  I understand such billionaires are fairly difficult to find.  In the real world, you do what you can with what you can pay for.  (TIGHAR has had the misfortune to be victimized by a malfunctioning ROV not once, but TWICE.  I can only imagine how frustrating that has to be.)

[Bob Smith]

"Did you actually read about the big ship, the big systems, and the big budget on Niku VII? " You asked.
Yes, Marty. Sorry if I hit a nerve.  "could not" as in could not raise those kinds of funds again, is not in my vocabulary. TIGHAR may have to wait a little while longer, or operate a little differently, but I believe if its really worth going after, the funds can be found. The exploration of anything may be stunted, but must not be determined or defined by the amount of money needed. Add up the total amount of money used on all the expeditions to Nikumaroro: Must be a tidy sum!

[Eddie Rose]

If the environment is so unforgiving, and the task so technically challenging, surely outsourcing the job of imaging the sea floor to an experienced professional outfit makes more sense? A company with a reputation to protect that can overcome problems and deliver results. You get what you pay for.

[Ric Gillespie]

A public forum is a wonderful thing to behold.  Anyone can provide expert advice without having the slightest idea of what they're talking about.

"If the environment is so unforgiving, and the task so technically challenging, surely outsourcing the job of imaging the sea floor to an experienced professional outfit makes more sense? A company with a reputation to protect that can overcome problems and deliver results. You get what you pay for."

That is exactly what TIGHAR has done on each of the four expeditions in which we have done deep water underwater surveys. In 1991 we contracted with Oceaneering International. In 2010 we contracted with SeaBotix.  In 2012 we contracted with Phoenix international. In 2015 we contracted with Advanced Remote Marine Services.  Each contractor was an experienced  professional outfit with a reputation to protect, highly motivated to overcome problems and deliver results - and Nikumaroro defeated every one of them.

And I love this one:
 "Could not" as in could not raise those kinds of funds again, is not in my vocabulary. TIGHAR may have to wait a little while longer, or operate a little differently, but I believe if its really worth going after, the funds can be found."

If I may interrupt your swagger for a moment, please let us know how you have succeeded in raising vast sums of money for nonprofits.

"I guess, TIGHAR has to go big or it will never succeed."

In 2012 we had a word-class oceanographic research vessel and the U.S. Navy's primary recovery contractor at a cost of over two million dollars.  If that isn't "going big" I don't know what is.



 

[Bill Lloyd]

In 2015 we contracted with Advanced Remote Marine Services. 

Since the ROV broke down, was there any kind of warranty in the contract for services? If so you may be due an adjustment.

[Ric Gillespie]

In 2015 we contracted with Advanced Remote Marine Services. 

Since the ROV broke down, was there any kind of warranty in the contract for services? If so you may be due an adjustment.

In view of the difficulties experienced, the contractor has voluntarily declined to accept any payment at all for his services.  TIGHAR paid to ship the equipment to Fiji and we'll pay for the return shipping but that's all. This is in stark contrast to the contractor for the 2012 trip who demanded full payment ($860,000) up front, failed to deliver the services paid for, and has steadfastly refused to make any adjustment.  Having spent well over $100,000 successfully defending against the Mellon lawsuit, we can't afford to go after the 2012 contractor unless we can find a law firm that will take it on as a contingency or pro bono case.

[JNev]

All factual points, of course.  And of course a public forum is what it is - but you have an audience that is interested, which seems like a positive thing.

What seems to sum out of much of this is that TIGHAR has, by her efforts, at the very least swept the onshore and near shore environment well enough to know 'where not to look further' (with the possible exception of the anomaly, depending on the outcome of the 'hail Mary').

Which seems to leave a need - if one intends to finish scouring the Niku possibility, offshore / deeper capabilities.  At a glance, that does suggest 'bigger bucks, bigger ship, bigger / more equipment' - BIG TIME, granted.

Maybe that's not as undoable as you think.  But it may require a major expansion of the hypothesis.

Not for me to say obviously, but again - be glad you have an audience - and even those sound critical are not necessarily against you or looking more deeply -

As you point out, four major firms were engaged - and all were defeated 'by Niku' - arguably, but never mind: what MAY count (your call, not mine, of course) is "why did they fail and what can we do about it, and where / how should we be looking next?"  If you want to find that dang bird (and sorry, but some of us just think that is the indespensible terminating action for this hypothesis, realizing 'preponderance' is also floated but not enough for many, apparently), then maybe this is something to consider.

I realize you just got whacked in the hot sun out there and are now taking howitzer shots left and right, as it must feel.  But what do you want out of this, Ric?  You are convinced she's there - have said so, to me here lately in fact - OK, I can respect that whale in your waters (I would like her to be too).  You've counted a lot on 'perusal' but still struggle (consider where the discussion still is), and the anomaly could be 'it', but dangit all...

Looks to me like you own it as it is (duh, I know you know that better than any of us could possible realize) - so where do you want to take it from here???

- Cave, claim perusal and write the book on what's gone to date and do tours, or -
- Regroup, build a blue-ribbon panel of the best talent you can muster to look at all that has gone before and consider where / how to look next, and go for the gold ring?

I know you are sick of hearing my opinions - and I give you great credit for allowing me to even still be here, realizing that.  But it seems like TIGHAR needs to 'rebrand' into something bigger and badder and take the full-blown chance of finding her or not finding her on the greater slopes of Niku, once and for all - if you really want that gold ring to go down in history.

Where / how?

Where -

You and others have been there, not me - but after seeing that really nice video taken during the Princess tour, I was struck at how wide, long and smooth some of those beaches appear to be - and how rough that reef 'flat' really can be.  Does there need to be an expanded / deeper examination of the reef slope to rule it out, and then work around the island?  HUGE task, but Nauticos mowed a lot of lawn, and not all of it smooth either.

How -

BIG ship, MULTIPLE devices, most proven - dunno, but seems like you need the wisdom from all you've lived through plus that of people like Nauticos attracted.

Just thoughts.  Including that having 'mortgaged the future' and that you have a lot on the line, either go BIG, own this thing in a whole new bold way, or curl up with the 'perusal' business.

Not saying it's easy - I never had to raise one dime to do what you've done.  But I know such projects DO happen.  Can Gillespie reinvent himself and TIGHAR in a big way to go after that?

Make of it what you will - but despite all my concerns and criticisms, I offer you those thoughts honestly and in the clear here.  You're the only one who knows what he really wants out of this, or what you're willing to do to get it, of course - board and organization be damned: you are at the helm, that's been clear for a long time (with all respect to board, etc. of course - but...).

BTW, if I was a hater or a troll, I wouldn't bother with any of this.  I wouldn't take the chance of raising your ire or pour out my own observations.  You can call me naive, or amateur - and yes, I may be those things.  But I'm an honest thinker and if I bother to tell you what I think, then at least don't call me an enemy.

Just thoughts - and I suggest that guys like Eddie, John and Oskar here have similar value for you.

Glad you are all back safe.

[Skip Daly]

In view of the difficulties experienced, the contractor has voluntarily declined to accept any payment at all for his services

Thinking optimistically for a moment, does this mean that sufficient funds are in the coffer to set things up for a 2016 return, to have a proper look at the anomaly?  I don't know what percentage of the overall budget was allocated for the contracted services, vs. travel expenses, etc.  But one would imagine this as significant enough to provide a good start on funding a return?

As for the anomaly...I gather the GPS data is still pending?  Correlating the camera location to the anomaly location should be pretty interesting.  If nothing is readily visible in the photos --- either wreckage or geology --- that would account for the sonar anomaly, then it seems likely the cameras missed the anomaly location by some distance, no?  The alternative explanation would be that the anomaly is no longer in the same position as it was in 2012.  Intuitively, I would think that latter explanation unlikely, due to the depth......but maybe I am wrong?  What size storm would be required to affect movement on a 30+ foot object 600 feet underwater?

Along these lines....were there any plans...or are there any plans...to re-validate (via sonar?) that the anomaly still sits where it did in 2012?

[Eddie Rose]

Thinking optimistically for a moment, does this mean that sufficient funds are in the coffer to set things up for a 2016 return, to have a proper look at the anomaly?

Personally, I can't see the wisdom in repeating the same exercise, especially so soon after this expedition. There doesn't seem to be much (if anything) left to find on a boat trip to the island.

Maybe time is needed for technology to catch up with our demands. Perhaps in a few years advances in ROV technology and lower cost will make it practical to hire a firm that can do a complete survey for a mile around the island in every direction to get a definitive answer, once and for all. With payment (or at least part of it) contingent on results.

Flying drones have come a long way in a short time, maybe we'll see the same with underwater drones.