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Author Topic: Dead-Reckoning?  (Read 9959 times)

Randy Conrad

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Dead-Reckoning?
« on: June 13, 2015, 04:40:34 AM »

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Matt Revington

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Re: Dead-Reckoning?
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2015, 06:06:10 AM »

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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Dead-Reckoning?
« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2015, 07:18:42 AM »

http://timeandnavigation.si.edu/sites/default/files/multimedia-assets/337-earhart_lt_300ppi.jpg

Interesting letter.

Dated May 14.

The crash in Honolulu was on March 20.

The second attempt began on May 20.

Weems seems a little out of the loop.

"Miss Earhart c/o George Putnam" is also revealing.


LTM,

           Marty
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Jay Burkett

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Re: Dead-Reckoning?
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2015, 11:07:43 AM »

Wow!  Makes you wonder the chain of events that prompted that letter.
Jay Burkett, N4RBY
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Randy Conrad

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Re: Dead-Reckoning?
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2015, 05:06:03 AM »

Good Morning! Martin and Matt...I was reading more on dead-reckoning this morning and had me wandering...Does anyone know if Fred Noonan was trained in dead-reckoning? Something to look into?
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JNev

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Re: Dead-Reckoning?
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2015, 07:44:16 AM »

Dead reckoning is the most basic form of navigation for pilots and navigators.  Weems' own words allude to that by his noting that Ms. Earhart and the other lady were no doubt familiar with it.

Weems also points out here that dead reckoning has severe limits over open water or clouds whereas there is no means by dead reckoning alone to fix one's position: dead reckoning over land in clear air allows one to use landmarks; over water, only recognizable islands or ships in known positions, etc. could do that.  Which leads to Weems' emphasis on radio and celestial navigation as skills to gain so as to overcome the hazard of depending only on dead reckoning over water.

It is very interesting that Weems offers this emphatic advice and encouragement to 'go to school' scant days before Earhart's next attempt.  Perhaps few knew of that, including Weems - so perhaps it was innocent and because of not being in loop.  I believe she did begin the second attempt in secrecy as it wasn't revealed until she arrived in Miami, first leg complete, so either Weems was not in the loop of people who knew, or was attempting to cool her intent until she could become better prepared as he saw it. 

Further, was Weems not aware that Noonan was firmly aboard already?  Noonan, by the way, would have had no problem with 'dead reckoning', be assured.  Maybe not - maybe Weems was that much 'out of the loop' -

Or, as has been wondered, what of the chain of events / discussions that may have brought this about?  Was there concern about Earhart's dependency on Noonan, and some urging from some quarter (Weems himself or perhaps someone else encouraging him to intervene) for Earhart to learn so as to back herself with these skills?  Not sure that is knowable.

The letter is a very interesting glimpse into the dynamics of Earhart's efforts at the time and how the many tiny teeth within that clockwork inched along for better or worse.  Isn't it interesting - if tragic, to see the outcome of all that machinery ticking along - some of it engaged, other gearworks disengaged by the lady and ignored (and did GP share things like this with her anyway).  Weems was not the only one she politely eschewed as to advice - Hooven noted Earhart's less-than enthusiastic willingness to work more to better grasp radio navigation skills as well.

Interested in Marty's take on the import of Weems' sending this 'c/o George Putnam'.  My own thought is that at face value that may have been a simple expedient as how to get something into Earhart's hands rapidly, which may have been a problem by direct mail - she may have been quite mobile at the time - I don't know for sure.  Putnam may simply have been the more reliable route.  Conversely, was there a hope that Putnam would take the letter to heart and reach into Earhart's head better than others had done, historically?  That seems possible.  Or was there some realization that all things had to go through Putnam as a gatekeeper?  That too is possible.  One also wonders how many decisions GP effectively made in the planning - might he have ignored this and not passed it on to Earhart's consideration, believing things were already covered by having Noonan aboard, etc.?  It is interesting - as I see it there are definite elements here and there among the events of this flight where ambiguity appears to exist as to who was really in control.

The most telling thing toward a 'fit' with her disappearance as I see it is that Weems had focused on an observed weakness: Earhart lacked the world-class radio and celestial navigation skills that might have saved her.  Yes Noonan was aboard and should have filled the void in terms of celestial navigation, so we might reasonably discount that concern.  But the radio was an obvious gap, and Weems' had a point; and here we are still looking...
- Jeff Neville

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« Last Edit: June 16, 2015, 07:51:52 AM by Jeffrey Neville »
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Neff Jacobs

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Re: Dead-Reckoning?
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2015, 07:50:42 AM »

Randy,
Short course in navigation circa 1937.
True course is the direction you actually are going.
The compass is wrong by several degrees over most of the earth.  This is called magnetic variation.
True Air speed is the speed the aircraft would travel over the earth in still air.  True air speed is roughly 2% faster than indicated air speed per thousand feet of height.
Aircraft indicate statute miles per hour but navigators use knots since  nautical miles relate directly to degrees and minutes on their charts.



I am going to ignore takeoff climb and flying away from the headland and the fact that once the moon set Noonan ran all day on Sun LOPs alone and
Have Earhart settle down on 72 magnetic/78 true at 8000 feet.   So Noonan starts a DR plot based on time, course and speed.   Earhart is indicating 140 smph at 8000 feet  True airspeed is 162 mph or 141 knots.  An hour later Noonan takes sights and gets a fix 8 Nm south of course and  15 Nm short of the distance predicted by DR.   Noonan does exactly nothing because his fix is only accurate to+/-10 Nm   This goes on for 2-3 more hours and Noonan finally decides he is drifting South and sure enough has a 20 knot head wind.   At this point he gives Earhart a new course of 62 degrees magnetic for 30 minutes to bring them back on the 78 true rhumb line and then 67 magnetic to allow for the wind and starts a new plot based on Time, course, speed and wind drift.  And he starts over.
Neff
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Randy Conrad

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Re: Dead-Reckoning?
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2015, 12:54:33 PM »

I wish my mail could travel this fast...here you go!!!
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Martin X. Moleski, SJ

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Re: Dead-Reckoning?
« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2015, 01:14:13 PM »

Good Morning! Martin and Matt...I was reading more on dead-reckoning this morning and had me wandering...Does anyone know if Fred Noonan was trained in dead-reckoning? Something to look into?

Yes, Fred was trained in dead-reckoning.

It is a standard navigation technique.

There is nothing mysterious about it.

You use all available clues to determine the course you are making good during a particular time period.  At the end of that time, you sum up all the evidence and make a responsible judgment about where you are, given what you knew about where you were when you started the process of reasoning.

LTM,

           Marty
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