When I took macroeconomics in university we were told of an experiment whereby three control groups were studied to see if any particular skill set could measure more strongly as to stock buying and selling over a period of weeks. There were three team members in each of three groups:
The three advanced studies students outperformed the three professional brokers;
The three novice subjects who were simply given daily trading sheets and allowed to make random buy-sell choices marginally outperformed both the students and pros - and each of the novices were millionaires at the end of six weeks - not bad for three chimpanzees.
There is an argument for being lucky rather than good. IMO, nobody is THAT good.
They're nice people, but they are selling high risk ideas (risk directly proportional to the level of sacrifice realized by the donor). Yes, their store stuff is nice, and I'm sure they will treat you well if you go there and inquire.
IMO, their idea is not wholly new. It sounds a great deal like that of Elgen Long to me, a world-class navigator and heavy-iron trans-Pacific, world-girdling aviator and gentleman who along with his wife Marie wrote the book on crashed and sank.
The twist may be that per Gary LaPook's writings in this place (help yourself, prolific - which he seems to regard in large part as his treatise d' confidence for his standing as consulting navigation theorist for Stratus) suggest that some sort of search pattern wrinkle may alter the supposed area of loss from that envisioned by Long.
It's not entirely clear, and the specifics of where Stratus intends to search is very understandably a proprietary secret, as one cannot declare a section of open sea off limits to others who might swoop in for the glory. That is one distinct advantage TIGHAR has in her venue at Niku: protection under agreement with sovereign Kiribati, subject to their goodwill and ability to protect, of course.
I am one, BTW, who believes Gary would serve himself and Stratus better were he to commit his general rationale, sans the telling detail so as to not comprise the solution, to academic paper: pointing to a scattered smattering of posts here, and at his site 'Fredienoonan.com' in the middle, and to a well received lecture to navigation veterans over there is a bit hard on those who might otherwise more kindly consider his curriculum vitae for the sake of such an important stake. It would also lend a means to lead observers not into the potentially negative tone of frequently irascibly contested forum points, but into the more dispassionately calm mind of the intellectual expert. Alas, the instinct of the counselor thus far prevails...
Yes we apparently have in Stratus a seeker of not-for-profit status whereby OPM (sometimes pronounced 'opium', for the uninitiated) can be solicited from the public for whatever reasons the proprietor(s), sovereign state of Ireland and donors can agree are legal, ethical, edifying and/or otherwise rewarding - ostensibly for the joy of solving the mystery in honor of Earhart's Irish ties and to the delight of those who'd celebrate LaPook's vision. Judging by what one can observe at the Stratus site (no movement of late that I can tell) it must have been a blustery winter in Belfast.
It may prove a rainy spring, as well.
Some hold that TIGHAR is to blame by having consumed the lion's share of an oddly-imagined finite pool of funds. At times it seems that if funds are to become available, TIGHAR's frailties must be pointed out that would-be investors could be wrested free from their misunderstandings and redirected to the correct camp.
I question that severely as an exercise of mental diddling in the madness of finite wealth / market inelasticity that makes no sense: the public is generally willing to be plied to support worthwhile ideas, but may be reserved where ideas do not seem worthwhile due to risk, or for other reasons such as interest or questions as to qui bono, etc. TIGHAR can no doubt attest that it is a matter of great effort to overcome market timidity for any number of such reasons, and while some degree of market shock may exist at times for various reasons, each new approach is just that where people yearn to know the answer. Boring a hole in the Pacific of some several hundred or even thousand square mies probably rocks the wealthy and more pedestrian potential backer back on his/her heels more than we'd like to think, unfortunately. I for one have come to appreciate just how large a task that can be.
One doesn't know for certain, but TIGHAR might well add that this has always been a tough prospect that has grown tougher of late.
TIGHAR can at least point to what Ballard once referred to as a 'box' - and his words on that, as in many things, are worth the read: no matter how attractive or intriguing a search object, there's little point if you can't reasonably confine the search area; Earhart's loss legacy is essentially devoid of strong terms by which to reasonably confine an open sea search. Niku at least provides some semblance of reason, geographically speaking, however elusive the wreck continues to prove itself.
LaPook counters the notion of Niku in some respectable ways, and others more viscerally expressed - but nearly all with a flare of distaste for that which is not crashed and sank, and all in support of a die-hard belief in Earhart's effort to find Howland or... crash and sink.
Long used a beautifully simple observation: all that we can reasonably tell, when taken at face value, suggests that Earhart ran out of fuel and crashed into the sea moments after her last known transmission to Itasca, somewhere near and to the north / west of Howland Island. When one looks at Itasca's early moments in this misadventure - the first and only on scene and reacting to contemporary conditions that no outsider could know as well later, it makes very good sense.
So we have in Stratus, in my now somewhat agnostic if not jaundiced view, another craps table in the Earhart Casino. Not to demean, truly - I merely enjoy mirth - if not a twist of the blade at times, and acknowledging that good, if imperfect people are where you find them. And many are sincere searchers, but it has become some industry, hasn't it?
They are all worthy of study - if perhaps for a variety of reasons, not all having to do with likely success - and those like TIGHAR and Long who've devoted years of effort have produced very impressive works to ponder. But remember, when it comes to the search, excellence may just be outshined by a chimp. Gillespie himself has spoken of the need for luck at least once in my feeble memory, and it seems very true.
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Topic: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart (Read 43192 times)
