Lots of things are possible, and maybe this new 'generically hopeful' thread is a place to take a fresh breath and share my own view of where this whole search for Earhart happens to be at the moment (as I see it, of course).
As to the reef landing and possible effects on the machine, this is presently being explored in
"Earhart's Radio Transmitter" (out of thought for the effect of a hard landing on the radio set / being compromising, etc., apparently).
A view from this crow's nest, looking back, about and forward to the extent I can -
- Earhart's disappearance has proved to have longer legs as a mystery to be solved than most others in history that I can think of - the
murder of "The Black Dahlia",
Judge Crater, and even Jimmy Hoffa and others like those in history all seem to pale in terms of interest in 'gotta know what happened to that lady pilot'. At least in terms of piquing the public's interest in the press on occasion, and perhaps in terms of the endearing publications offered about the mystery. Even Elvis seems to rest in peace in the past decade or so, at least by comparison.
- Alternate aviation mysteries even pale -
White Bird - itself probably far more important than Earhart's flight, and
Paul Redfern's truly mysterious disappearance and some related intrigue laced 'survival' stories fade into the footnotes compared to the cottage industry that Earhart has become.
So we have this long-simmering semi-public yearning to "know" what became of the aviatrix. I say 'semi-public' because the broader public only awakens and supports in much of any way when they hear something that sounds a lot like "Earhart has been found". Otherwise, it seems to be we, the 'semi-public' who lurk in the shadows of places like TIGHAR (well, argue what one will, there ain't but one place where this kind of material and posting appears, like it or not) keep tugging at what we might see metaphorically as loose threads in an old sweater. And we are guided on occasion in our discipline by those of keen intellect who might correct my use of "metaphorical" to "allegorical"
- and if so, it is welcome as a reminder to be disciplined in one's thought and expression and lend the most possible credence to the effort.
*Ahem*
So here we are. We have before us a field of various beliefs, and to-date, zero positive physical proof of where Earhart ended her last flight. There are more 'camps' than I care to count - writers and researchers abound about lost at sea, blind-folded and shot by the Japanese, same - after being picked-up on Gardner by the same entity, spy / captured, crashed in jungles on islands far to the west of Howland, you name it. It's out there and you can subscribe to one or all by way of interest, or if you've a mind to be firm in your belief, you can fully commit to one particular idea. One of these - in whose parlor I now sit and write (allegorically) holds to 'testing the hypothesis' of a landing on Gardner, now Nikumaroro.
What each of these have in common is a head personality that breathes life into the theory held by his own faction. This is much the same throughout the 'industry', as I see it: it takes a Ric Gillespie, an
Elgen Long or a
Colin Cobb to sustain an organized interest in the various theories about Earhart's disappearance. Make of each of these what you will - love 'em, hate 'em, treat them with indifference or listen to each and follow as you will - but know this: there would be little or no organized searching or real debate about this fascinating loss if not for them and their individual drive.
Hucksters? Scientific investigators? Modern Ahabs?
Judge as you will, caveat emptor. I'm a social libertarian when it comes to this. I personally see them as strongly the third category - "Ahabs" - protagonists who will pursue the rare whale, to the very depths in which the men can no longer breath, if necessary.
Ahabs don't come cheap, or without pain; they commit creaking wooden vessels to open seas where monsters lurk, and their ships bear colorful crews - some of whom quietly carve their own coffins, others who blindly flail at the beast from flimsy boats, others who murmur mutiny due to the bruises of command, and still others who call to the crew to board a more promising vessel. It's all in there, wherever you go.
I also see degrees of the second - investigators of a degree of scientific honesty; most seem to try hard to ensure scientific credibility is applied to their efforts, however flawed - or wanting, as some may see, that may be at times be in an imperfect world. Others differ as they will, but I see a high degree of this within TIGHAR. It is not and never will be perfect, and the promotional aspects that occur within that nest of course will offend some. It ain't a pure world or pure process.
The first? Huckster? You judge for yourself, but I can see where the public may take the often sensational claim or viewpoint as highly promotional. Is that a crime? Take a look around your household and make an honest assessment of how you chose to purchase most of the things in your life and then ask yourself if you didn't listen to someone's pitch about nearly every one of them - that's how we get the word out and build a following. I take it with a grain of salt: "no bucks, no Buck Rogers".
Taken as a whole we then have a competitive industry: each of these 'camps' vies for public support and affection in its own ways. Generally, each argues as to why their own theories are more sound than the next one and each depends on the fickle public to buy its wares to support the cause of the individual Ahab. 'Ahab' in this sense is not entirely fair, because there are organizations behind at least some of these which are merely headed by an Ahab. So it is with TIGHAR (and I hope Ric does not take offense at being 'labeled' an 'Ahab' here, but I do see him as one who will never let go of this quest until proof is found - either by himself or another).
So much for Jeff's view of 'the industry'. What has the industry laid before us?
At the moment, we have before us a number of competing theories - call them "
Alternatives to the Niku Hypothesis":
- There are, for instance, various forms of 'crashed and sank'; "
Stratus", for example, which promises to lay bare whether Earhart 'crashed and sank' in a place and manner consistent with their beliefs, mainly as theorized by former TIGHAR contributor Gary LaPook. Gary has excellent knowledge of celestial navigation and is a follower of Fred Noonan's career. He is a very smart man with excellent mathematical and analytical skills to bolster his research. Gary and Stratus, by information published on their site, believe some crucial points of fact have been overlooked that point specifically to a place in the ocean where Earhart can be found. They are not revealing where that is, exactly, or precisely what the missing points are and how they apply - but that can be had by making a sufficient donation to the planned effort and signing a confidentiality agreement. Presumably their theoretical resting place lies outside of the considerable "lawn" that was "mowed" by
Nauticos up near Howland Island; or perhaps they see a 'gap' in something Nauticos reported, I'm not entirely sure. The Nauticos effort was so thorough that we apparently don't need to look further there, but maybe Stratus sees a 'hole' others don't see, I'm not sure. I like Gary and respect his intellect, and wish him and Stratus well - but at the end of the day they hold exactly what all others in this chase hold: an idea.
- We have also at least one entity out there believing that Earhart crashed in the jungles of
East New Britain - far to the west of Howland.
- And for another, we have TIGHAR. Uniquely focused on the idea that Earhart found herself at a loss as to landfall at Howland, but clinging to the advice of Noonan, followed a line of position along headings 157-337 degrees (one being the reverse of the other) to the SSE, finally, where after some time she may well have found Gardner island, as it lies somewhat near an extension of that line in that direction.
Does TIGHAR hold more than 'an idea'?
For some of us, yes. Read these pages.
Whatever one thinks of what TIGHAR has found, two things set TIGHAR apart from the other camps, at least to-date:
- TIGHAR has gone to "the site" she believes marks the end of the flight and collected "things" that can be studied as they may relate to Earhart;
- TIGHAR provides a site for sharing and discussing these things.
I won't get into the criticisms some have of how those things happen, don't happen, or get treated - except to point to my comments above and consider them as you will. I personally find value in the effort here as I remain fascinated, as apparently do many, by the loss of Earhart and how nature has kept the answer a secret for so long.
So I invite others to take up the spirit invited by Richie here and consider the mystery as you will. It is an interesting dialogue; I can't tell you how to take the personalities - I like peace and pursuing curiosities, but all kinds tend to show up.
None of this answers the question that still burns in me, however: why are we so hell-bent on finding out what happened to Earhart? Good question, I think (pats self on back) - and I think it has to do with the notion of 'the aviatrix'. How can we allow Nungesser and Coli, and Redfern to molder in oblivion while we turn tide and coral back to find Earhart? Sorry ladies, but the chauvinist that Earhart so despised steps in: from this man's point of view, I still feel like there is a lady in distress; she got in too deep - and we have to find her.
A guy does that and I only look so long before having to admit 'dammit, he really did it'. With a lady pilot, NEVER - it was a brave act, if foolish - and that the public hardly cared about her flight at the time until she was lost matters not: the same thing that drove interest then does now, perhaps with more fervor. Noonan was there, yes, but he himself does not drive the visceral interest that Earhart does - at least in this breast.
Redfern, Nungesser and Coli and others like them still drive an interest, but it's not the same as Earhart. This seems to be the fuel that the Ahabs become both fed and intoxicated by. I dunno, your call where you are concerned.
So yep, fresh start on existing ideas - and I guess any new ones worthy of picking at. Win, lose or draw, this camp or another, let's go find the missing lady...
