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Author Topic: 2-2-V-1 - patch?  (Read 1126615 times)

Ric Gillespie

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1215 on: January 17, 2015, 03:59:56 PM »

I don't think you guys have a good handle on the level of knowledge and sophistication Jeff Glickman brings to photo interpretation.  I would think that it will be relatively easy for him to sort the original image from "ghost images" and fingerprints. 
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Frank Hajnal

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1216 on: January 17, 2015, 04:03:51 PM »

Hopes of arranging for an agreed-upon ‘independent’ photoanalyst(s) to examine Bob Lanz’s Darwin Hangar photo seem to be fading, but all the same I would like to suggest that if Tighar and Lanz can somehow overcome their differences, that independent analyst should examine three photos: the Darwin Hangar photo, the Purdue Darwin ‘Ramp’ photo, and the Miami photo that Jeff Glickman is working on.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 04:42:38 PM by Frank Hajnal »
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Frank Hajnal

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1217 on: January 17, 2015, 04:12:09 PM »

Have we taken in the significance of the sharp, in focus, fingerprints on the Lanz Darwin Ramp.jpg? Are these on the negative (or another secret)?

What may be significant is the fingerprints are on the Purdue image as well and look like the same fingerprints. The Purdue archive notes the size of the print it scanned as 14x21 cm or about 5.5" x 8.3".

Zoom in enough on the fingerprint to estimate its size and location in relation to reference points, then enlarge the image on your computer screen to 14x21cm to see if the fingerprint is consistent with the Purdue photo print size. 
Could the fingerprints be on the Purdue image and that image be the original source of the image Bob Lanz has, or did they share the same negative?

I think Lanz started with the digital photo available from Purdue.  I see not only the fingerprint, but the same dust specks, which I think were most likely introduced when the print was made.  In his WIX post (http://www.warbirdinformationexchange.org/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=53085&start=255) Lanz speaks of obtaining the hangar photo from Elgen Long, he doesn't provide a story about the 'Ramp' photo, and my guess is that he would have said something about its origins if it was from any place besides Purdue.  But since Lanz apparently reads Tighar Forum posts and respondes to them over at WIX, he can clear this matter up, and I suspect he will.



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Ric Gillespie

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1218 on: January 17, 2015, 04:16:34 PM »

independent analyst should examine thee photos: the Darwin Hangar photo, the Purdue Darwin ‘Ramp’ photo, and the Miami photo that Jeff Glickman is working on.

In a perfect world we would have at least three credentialed photo analysts doing pro bono examinations of the three photos you mention plus every other photo of the Electra in which the patch is visible.  Alas, the Wonderful World of Earhart Research is peppered with people who lack any fundamental understanding of how science-based historical investigation works.
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Frank Hajnal

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1219 on: January 17, 2015, 04:41:32 PM »

independent analyst should examine thee photos: the Darwin Hangar photo, the Purdue Darwin ‘Ramp’ photo, and the Miami photo that Jeff Glickman is working on.

In a perfect world we would have at least three credentialed photo analysts doing pro bono examinations of the three photos you mention plus every other photo of the Electra in which the patch is visible.  Alas, the Wonderful World of Earhart Research is peppered with people who lack any fundamental understanding of how science-based historical investigation works.

I would have thought that part of any science-based historical investigation would include having funds available to analyze the things that are collected during the investigation, not just to collect them.  But what do I know, I lack your fundamental knowledge in this area ::).

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Ric Gillespie

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1220 on: January 17, 2015, 04:59:05 PM »

I would have thought that part of any science-based historical investigation would include having funds available to analyze the things that are collected during the investigation, not just to collect them.  But what do I know, I lack your fundamental knowledge in this area ::).

I heartily agree!  Make your check payable to TIGHAR or donate online at http://tighar.org/store/index.php?route=product/category&path=43
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Krystal McGinty-Carter

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1221 on: January 17, 2015, 05:58:52 PM »

 I looked at the photo in question and didn't see the "ghost images" described. I zoomed in, however and let my imagination do its thing.  I saw an old woman, a chubby boy frowning, a dog etc.   Its difficult to say if what I am seeing is the result of overlapping negatives or an overactive imagination.  That's the problem when you don't have the negatives or original print in your hands.  As has been discussed before,  its very easy for our minds to "see" what they want to see, especially on an image that is decades old, many times reproduced and then  displayed on a computer screen.  Now that you pointed it out, I see something different every time I look at it and I suspect others might as well.  Matrixing is a curious phenomenon and it takes someone with solid experience in photo analysis to determine if a phantom image is the result of the poor storage of negatives or a "camel in the clouds."   I trust Glickmans  skills and expertise. He has a monumentally complicated job. Im fairly confident that if any of these "ghost images" were significant to the search, he would have made it known. 
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Diego Vásquez

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1222 on: January 17, 2015, 07:19:10 PM »

Why not offer to have it examined and analyzed by an independent professional?

I wouldn't overlook the Darwin Ramp photo version he posted either - although still from that tough-grained original, it's the clearest I've seen.  The 'patch' definition and original rivet lines are striking.

Jeff, Can you link the specific "Ramp photo version" that you referenced in this post?

Greg - I believe you are probably referring to this one: http://e-archives.lib.purdue.edu/cdm/singleitem/collection/earhart/id/284/rec/393
It is the one that I believe is generally referred to as the Darwin ramp photo (as opposed to the Darwin hangar photo).  The Darwin ramp photo is in the Purude archives.  It is described on their site as:  "Amelia Earhart’s Electra plane being refueled in Darwin, Australia, before leaving for Lae, New Guinea, ca. June 1937"

If you are talking about the one Lanz posted at Warbirds, here is the link:  http://warbirdinformationexchange.org/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=53085&start=255

I believe it is just a duplicate of the Purdue one and not at any higher res, although I  don't know for sure about that.

Apologies if either or these is not the one you were talking about.


Diego

 

I want to believe.

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« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 07:45:16 PM by Diego Vásquez »
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1223 on: January 17, 2015, 08:07:44 PM »

I don't think you guys have a good handle on the level of knowledge and sophistication Jeff Glickman brings to photo interpretation.  I would think that it will be relatively easy for him to sort the original image from "ghost images" and fingerprints.

I certainly agree that the finger prints and ghost images are child's play to Glickman and you have my empathy, I can see why you dread 'Amateur Hour' in these things.

With all due respect, I believe that may be a large part of the concern with unleashing that fine copy of the hangar photo enmasse, similar to what I recall of your concerns with the NZ photos, for one example.

Bravo for pointing out the 'perfect world panel of three' - a good standard.  I would LOVE to see that kind of investigative framework seriously promoted here if we're going to ever lean heavily on an artifact as providing truly high-gravity evidence: extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

Thanks -
- Jeff Neville

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Joe Cerniglia

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1224 on: January 17, 2015, 09:08:20 PM »

I've seen the photo and believe any lay person can discern the slick skin and rivets in adjacent skins. 

Frankly, and with all due respect, this lay person can't discern what these photos on Warbirds do or do not show in the way of rivets.  The camera is simply too far away for me to see it.

The quality of the photos seems typical for their vintage, no better.

In any event, I never felt the photographic analysis of 2-2-V-1 was the strongest part of the case.  That distinction belonged, in my opinion, to the analysis of expected thickness (.032") by Aris Scarla, and the metallurgical analysis by Dr. Thomas Eagar.

That said, I think the warbirds, in the words of HAL 9000, need to calm down and take a stress pill.

And knock off the ad hominem attacks.

FWIW, IMHO

Joe Cerniglia
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« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 09:15:47 PM by Joe Cerniglia »
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1225 on: January 17, 2015, 09:14:33 PM »


I think Lanz started with the digital photo available from Purdue.  I see not only the fingerprint, but the same dust specks, which I think were most likely introduced when the print was made.  In his WIX post (http://www.warbirdinformationexchange.org/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=53085&start=255) Lanz speaks of obtaining the hangar photo from Elgen Long, he doesn't provide a story about the 'Ramp' photo, and my guess is that he would have said something about its origins if it was from any place besides Purdue.  But since Lanz apparently reads Tighar Forum posts and respondes to them over at WIX, he can clear this matter up, and I suspect he will.

Your wish is apparently Bob's command - he's posted at WIX.
- Jeff Neville

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« Last Edit: January 17, 2015, 09:18:26 PM by Jeffrey Neville »
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Ted G Campbell

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1226 on: January 17, 2015, 10:04:38 PM »

All,

Reference the “patch” and all the pictures and photo analysis that have or could take place – the proof lies in finding the main airframe and seeing if the “patch” is still in place or fits where we think it does.

Getting all wound up on “could be”, “what if” and “might be” does not add much to the investigation – it only breeds animosity among all of us that are seeking the truth.

I would rather all of us to consider “why” the patch was installed in the first place: e.g.

   -    to cover up a broken window to keep it from leaking/fluttering while airborne

-   to add privacy while on the ground – highly unlikely

-   to provide structural strength in a compromised airframe area

-   to reduce cabin heating because of  the change in (West to East) direction of  the flight on the second attempt

-   to support the installation of additional compartment structures such as shelving, book storage, hardware racks, etc.

-   to provide a heat shield for survival gear i.e. water, canned goods, etc.

Bottom line – why install a “patch” over an area that was judged as of no use in the second attempt?

Was the “patch” installed to correct an existing structural problem, a potential structural problem or a convenience for the crew?

Let’s all think along these lines.

Ted Campbell
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1227 on: January 17, 2015, 10:05:39 PM »

I've seen the photo and believe any lay person can discern the slick skin and rivets in adjacent skins. 

Frankly, and with all due respect, this lay person can't discern what these photos on Warbirds do or do not show in the way of rivets.  The camera is simply too far away for me to see it.

The quality of the photos seems typical for their vintage, no better.

In any event, I never felt the photographic analysis of 2-2-V-1 was the strongest part of the case.  That distinction belonged, in my opinion, to the analysis of expected thickness (.032") by Aris Scarla, and the metallurgical analysis by Dr. Thomas Eagar.

That said, I think the warbirds, in the words of HAL 9000, need to calm down and take a stress pill.

And knock off the ad hominem attacks.

FWIW, IMHO

Joe Cerniglia
TIGHAR #3078ER

To each his own as to his own abilities, and as you've noted, you are a lay person.

The skin thickness was not only 'predicted' by Aris Scarla but explained by others, including myself in this forum as within the range of acceptable practice (next size thicker) according to guidance which has stood in various forms since at least Earhart's time.  That alone is a mere pointer as something that could be consistent with such a covering, and cannot be viewed as conclusive.

The metallurgical analysis by Eagar, while interesting and also possibly supportive of some interesting thoughts about what might have happened to the Electra if the artifact proved to be of that bird, also cannot itself be conclusive as to proving provenance to the Electra.

Those two points combined also cannot provide conclusive evidence as to provenance to the Electra.

As for myself, I am sorry to say that the dimensions of 2-2-V-1 and absence of forward /aft edge rivet holes finally weighed in too strongly to ignore.  In the Wichita photos, we see an artifact that is jammed against the aft edge of the skin near STA 293 5/8, which the cover clearly did not do in the Purdue Darwin ramp photo, for one.  For another, that would necessitate the patch having to pick up STA 320 to explain the absence of rivet holes at the aft edge of the artifact - and the artifact's overall length.  It is realized that even were this true (picking up STA 320), that the aft holes wouldn't be there because the artifact, were it the patch, would have apparently been cut short of that rivet line on removal.  But then where are the forward edge holes that should be in evidence at the most forward extremities of the artifact, were it the cover?  It is amply long enough for some of the forward edge fastener holes to remain in evidence: the Wichita photo has the artifact placed such that such rivet holes should appear along the extreme forward end. 

Take this as you will, but a number of reviewers - people experienced in this type of construction, including me, have seen this.  We have considered it independently from each other and found the fitment wanting in very similar ways.  It amazes me that more don't get this, but I guess lay people who lack sheet metal construction experience really don't understand the importance of it.  I wish they would at least look at the tape measure lay out on the external Wichita shot, and the lay out of 2-2-V-1 against that skin edge at STA 293 5/8 - then at the several photos, actually, that show the patch forward edge as offset from the STA 293 5/8 skin edge - not abutting the skin edge at STA293 5/8, and get their bearings in this.  I suggest doing the math for yourself.

Our opinions simply differ as to the photos and what is discernible, and of course you've not seen the full resolution version.  The point is, rivets are discernable where we know rivets should be on the stock areas of the Electra adjacent to the window area, so if any rivets exist in the mid field of the patch, we should hope to see some trace of at least a few.  Out of the posited 4 rows that the patch would bear were 2-2-V-1 the grail, we do not see any.  The full resolution picture can only be striking, BTW, as the version we have seen certainly is better than others I've seen.

Conversely, we have been laboring with a claim that rivets are visible in the mid field of the patch in a photo of considerably less quality - the Miami photo (take your pick - on ramp or on take-off at Miami).  The assertion that rivets can be seen there seems more questionable now, but perhaps someone can elaborate as to how that is so.  I do see lines there, and have even fended off contrary arguments that they might be reflected bands of cloud or something - but now realize that it really hasn't been explained how the differentiation was made; I had taken it as a matter of confidence in the analyst.  Now, we have a better picture it seems.

This really isn't easy for me for the very reason that I was among the more vigorous defenders of rivets vs. clouds, etc. in that picture out of confidence in what we were told and what I believed I could see, but now I must admit that clouds or similar reflections are quite possibly the source.

Since you quoted a rather benign statement of mine but go on to complain about ad hominem remarks after having cited things that don't suit you about WIX, I take it you were referring to something nasty there and not my own post.  I can only suggest that you direct your complaint to the moderators in that place if you hope for traction.  In one sense, some of that is the price paid for a more open debate.  Negatives can be tuned out, however, considering that not all indulge themselves thus, and perhaps they are best ignored and not dignified by too much complaint.  In fact there are a number of honest thinkers in that place - however they may differ with some things here.  One thing about it: TIGHAR is not known for driving neutral commentary. 

Not that I would ever condone ad hominem attack, heavens no.  If one really must do that, it would be far better to simply ring the recipient's doorbell.
- Jeff Neville

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« Last Edit: January 18, 2015, 07:58:41 AM by Jeffrey Neville »
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Joe Cerniglia

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1228 on: January 18, 2015, 06:44:25 AM »

To each his own as to his own abilities, and as you've noted, you are a lay person.

You noted that you were also a lay person.  The full quotation was "I've seen the photo and believe any lay person can discern the slick skin and rivets in adjacent skins.  But I am an amateur, no one should take my word."  I believe when you say you are an amateur, you are referring to your experience as an analyst in photogrammetry, correct?   Regarding your experience in aircraft construction, I would consider you far more advanced than an amateur, and rightly so.

 
The skin thickness was not only 'predicted' by Aris Scarla but explained by others, including myself in this forum as within the range of acceptable practice (next size thicker) according to guidance which has stood in various forms since at least Earhart's time.  That alone is a mere pointer as something that could be consistent with such a covering, and cannot be viewed as conclusive.

 ;D You will be relieved to know there's no need to explain that.  I understand we're not dealing in concluded things.  When I say something is the "strongest part of the case," I simply mean it's a good argument.  Good arguments don't always win cases; in fact, they very often lose cases.  I get this.  I wonder sometimes why the battle vulture forums don't get that I get this.   I suspect it may be they haven't had the chance to experience Socratic method.

 
The metallurgical analysis by Eagar, while interesting and also possibly supportive of some interesting thoughts about what might have happened to the Electra if the artifact proved to be of that bird, also cannot itself be conclusive as to proving provenance to the Electra, with what is known today.

Agreed.  I'd like to see him someday elaborate his case even further.  I know his time is taken up by more than just this.

 
Those two points combined also cannot provide conclusive evidence as to provenance to the Electra.
The battle vulture forum does what I like to call the "straw ad hominem" attack.  Take every tentative assertion, put forth to elicit more arguments to winnow the best case, and repurpose the assertion as a statement of finality borne of ignorance and frailty of mind.  Given this environment, I can understand and sympathize with the need to make it absolutely clear, as you do, that these two points cannot provide conclusive evidence.

 
 and of course you've not seen the full resolution version.
Would you be willing to share that full resolution version at some point?  It's not entirely fair, in my opinion, to cite a source that I'm not privileged to see as evidence in an argument by which you presumably would hope for consensus.  Or, would my lack of training in aircraft engineering prevent me from understanding the photo in any case?  If so, I apologize.  If you are prevented by personal fealty from disclosing the photos, I respect that, but should the photos enter into serious consideration without an open viewing, I fear the attention given them sounds almost like special pleading.

 
Conversely, we have been laboring with a claim that rivets are visible in the mid field of the patch in a photo of less quality
Assessing the quality of a photo in a scientific sense should probably be left to the photo analysts.  Granted, you are only responding to my raising the issue of photographic quality in the first place, and I will grant I was stating a personal, not a professional opinion, in raising that issue.  We need an expert to state a professional opinion on relative quality of the photos.  Neither of us is that expert.

 
This really isn't easy for me
I understand, and can well feel a sympathetic bond with these ups and downs as you're experiencing them.  I think I could better understand what you are stating if a formal report were presented at some point, for the layman, with the photos in all their great detail, to show why those who have seen the new photos now believe 2-2-V-1 indeed cannot be the patch.

 
Since you quoted a rather benign statement of mine but go on to complain about ad hominem remarks after having cited things that don't suit you about WIX, I take it you were referring to something nasty there and not my own post.
You are correct, and I really should not have left so much room for confusion.  Such are the perils of posting before bedtime.  I'm familiar with the various remarks brought up against me and against so many others here.  I hesitate to add that even you, Jeff, have come in for a bit of ad hominem here and there on other forums.  In these and other cases, I think the best remedy is to follow your example, take them as compliments if need be, and ignore them to the extent they are untrue, and to the extent that they might be true, however small that extent may be, learn and profit from the advice.  I'm remembering a comment by Randy Pausch I heard once.  When your critics stop talking about you, that's a really bad place to be because it means they've stopped caring.  Whatever the critics say, I would never accuse them of not caring, and it's a start.  From among some of those people, common ground will emerge, and that should be, and ever must be, the focus of the pursuit.


Not that I would ever condone ad hominem attack, heavens no
Of this I have never been in doubt.  If anyone can be styled an exemplar of civil debate, it is yourself.

Joe Cerniglia
TIGHAR #3078ER
« Last Edit: January 18, 2015, 07:20:11 AM by Joe Cerniglia »
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #1229 on: January 18, 2015, 07:51:24 AM »

I don't 'have' the full resolution copy.  It is not 'mine' to share.  I have 'seen' a fine enough version to see the stark contrast of rivets in areas adjacent to to the patch, and a patch that bears zero evidence of rivet lines, that by all logic should be as apparent as the rivets in nearby areas.

Yes I am an 'amateur' at anything to do with photo analysis.  I have a relative who is a professional.  I use him for my own edification and as a sanity check, much as Ric might use, say, Glickman.  I make no representation other than that of my own experience, such as it is - and as one who tried to champion a professional review and more openness after that I am simply interested in the full evidence being brought into focus.

You ignore my plea in large part, Joe - that people should avail themselves of the best information possible, and then think for themselves.  That includes in the case of this much and overly bandied point of independent review of this picture, to get it reviewed by an agreed third party and then gaining a report from same - and then deciding for themselves.

Same as to the Wichita evidence: look closely at the things I have cited and decide for yourself.

In sum, however, I do humbly submit that one needn't always be an expert to see the obvious in a clear photo, nor an expert in sheet metal to compare reasonble images and visible measurements to see that a thing does not fit.  They merely need to avoid the obfuscatory effects of hopeful discourse and become more brutally objective.
- Jeff Neville

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