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Author Topic: 2-2-V-1 - patch?  (Read 1126607 times)

JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #630 on: September 25, 2014, 03:58:27 PM »

Here's a closer picture taken in Darwin.  Is there a bulge?

Not that I can see in that picture, but it sure can be seen in this picture:
http://e-archives.lib.purdue.edu/cdm4/item_viewer.php?CISOROOT=/earhart&CISOPTR=284

And we're looking at the same area, so it must not be much of a 'feature', but just enough of one to show up if light is just right?  Looks like reasonably smooth skin to me.
- Jeff Neville

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Jay Burkett

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #631 on: September 25, 2014, 05:07:03 PM »

A really good metal worker could have rolled that patch well enough so that the "pucker" that is visible would not be there.  From experience I can tell you that is hard to do.  He would have to use an English Wheel and a good bit of time.  It could be that it fit fairly well when the fastening began and the "pucker" showed up when he was fairly well along --- far enough along that he could not do anything about it.  The only good way to get a piece of metal to match the fuselage contour perfectly is to stretch-form the material over a form-block that matches the contour where the material will eventually be installed.  The "pucker" in the material would support the theory of a field fabricated part and installation. 
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Tim Collins

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #632 on: September 26, 2014, 06:36:10 AM »


I believe Tim is referring to this:

Yes that's it exactly. I'll see if I can find it in another picture. If it is indeed a slight bulge, however minor, then why don't the supposed rivet lines effect it?  It's not as though you can't see other rivet lines on the fuselage.
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #633 on: September 26, 2014, 07:51:50 AM »

I believe Tim is referring to this:

That's nothing but generalized who-knows-what - it is not distinctively deformed metal at all, as I see it.  Were there such a large area of deformation of any significance I believe it would show clearly in other photos of the area.  It does not, that I've seen.

It also appears to fit within the background of other 'irregularities' in the structure here and there - this is probably mostly due to lighting and a somewhat flight-dingy airplane skin in need of a wash IMO.
- Jeff Neville

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Mark Samuels

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #634 on: September 26, 2014, 11:22:09 AM »

Can one simply kick a hole in the skin of an Electra? Can you then kick the stringers out by breaking their connections to the rest of the frame?

Why would anyone have to kick out the patch when there was a cabin door and a forward overhead hatch to escape from?
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Friend Weller

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #635 on: September 26, 2014, 11:37:00 AM »

Can one simply kick a hole in the skin of an Electra? Can you then kick the stringers out by breaking their connections to the rest of the frame?

Why would anyone have to kick out the patch when there was a cabin door and a forward overhead hatch to escape from?

Distortion of the fuselage from a possible rough landing might render the cabin door inoperable.  Ventilation and access to the rear cabin without crawling over the fuel tanks to access the cockpit hatch come to mind.
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #636 on: September 26, 2014, 12:48:36 PM »

Can one simply kick a hole in the skin of an Electra? Can you then kick the stringers out by breaking their connections to the rest of the frame?

Why would anyone have to kick out the patch when there was a cabin door and a forward overhead hatch to escape from?

Distortion of the fuselage from a possible rough landing might render the cabin door inoperable.  Ventilation and access to the rear cabin without crawling over the fuel tanks to access the cockpit hatch come to mind.

"Possible" - "might" - good operative words there, Friend.

Not to deny those possibilities, but what is the simplest equation?  Personally, I find it unlikely that someone 'kicked' out this panel because of how it was attached.

I've already described a "possible" failure scenario, but one glaring part of the failure that resulted in separation of this part from it's host structure is that ragged, diagonal rip line where we believe the double row of fasteners was: the part had to be substantially attached elsewhere for that kind of tension failure to have occurred.  "Kicking" the panel out doesn't fit that; a fire-ax doesn't fit it either - that tearing is the result of high enough diagonal stresses to initiate a ripping at that double seam.

Why would the failure start at the double seam, with larger fasteners instead of where the smaller fasteners were?  Because of the number of holes per inch and size of the holes (more and larger) - less sheet material in cross section to withstand the forces - that can be the downside of oversized fasteners in light sheet. 

In this case, the sheet failed before the fasteners did; the perilous forces also may have been concentrated in one corner of the sheet at first, sparing the rest of the sheet from causing failure of the smaller fasteners (which were small enough that they might have failed, if subjected to the same concentrated stress).

Just my thoughts.  Maybe there's a structures guy among us who can do the yellow sheet on it and give a better opinion.
- Jeff Neville

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Friend Weller

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #637 on: September 26, 2014, 03:16:55 PM »

"Possible" - "might" - good operative words there, Friend.

Just trying to avoid the dreaded W-word!   ;D

I agree with you, the likelihood of kicking or chopping out the patch seems low but worthy of investigation (Betty's notes about an irrational male presence in the cabin/cockpit lends some credence to this possibility).  However, structural weakness of the fuselage from the bi-sected FS 307 stiffeners coupled with hydraulic & mechanical forces/fatiguing appear to be a simpler, less convoluted explanation.
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Mark Samuels

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #638 on: September 26, 2014, 03:49:36 PM »

Can one simply kick a hole in the skin of an Electra? Can you then kick the stringers out by breaking their connections to the rest of the frame?

Why would anyone have to kick out the patch when there was a cabin door and a forward overhead hatch to escape from?

Distortion of the fuselage from a possible rough landing might render the cabin door inoperable.  Ventilation and access to the rear cabin without crawling over the fuel tanks to access the cockpit hatch come to mind.

I believe I would opt for trying to kick a stuck cabin door open than a part of the aircraft with a hundred or so rivets holding a patch in.  As far as crawling over the tanks, Amelia didn't seem to have a problem and nor would Fred have if capable.

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Jerry Germann

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #639 on: September 26, 2014, 05:06:49 PM »

Would the two Plexiglas windows in the fuselage be easier to break out to provide an exit ?
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #640 on: September 26, 2014, 07:23:50 PM »

Yes.  Said to be small, but I think I could squirt through those.
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Krystal McGinty-Carter

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #641 on: September 27, 2014, 01:14:28 AM »

Im no mechanic so Im only offering this in speculation.

You've just landed on an island. You've, theoretically, have spent several days crying out to thin air, growing more and more desperate each day. Each sunset, your hope of quick rescue slips further and further away. Hypothetically, you dumped most, if not all, of your emergency equipment for the sake of weight back in New Guinea or before that.  Now you are on an uninhabited island, without readily available food, water, shelter, etc, with little more than a makeup case, the clothes on your back, and whatever you can salvage from the airplane.

So the tide is threatening to take the plane over the edge. You know that a patch was placed over a window. Its riveted but unlike the rest of the airplane, it is installed after the fact and possibly weaker than the surrounding structure. You have no cooking surface/water collection device/ material for weapons against mutant crabs etc.  You're terrified, hungry, thirsty, frightened, desperate, hurting, regretful and all feelings in between. You arent likely to have much luck disassembling an Electra, teetering on a reef, without an impressive array of tools....but there is that patch.  Now, it is a long shot and this is purely speculation, but if someone is desperate enough, the body can achieve superhuman feats.  We have documented accounts of it.  I can even offer my own.

When I was 14, we had a gas explosion that trapped my brother in our garage (It was walled off inside for use as my dads work shop) . My brother was burned 70% of his body.  After my dad literally ripped the side door off its hinges to rescue him, I realized that his work truck was parked in the driveway, practically against a house that was burning down. Without it, my dad couldnt work.  Without help or anyone telling me to, I jumped in, put it in neutral and pushed it up our driveway from the drivers side door, to get it away from the house.  A scrawny 14 year old pushed a 1 1/2 ton flatbed truck up an incline, 20 feet.  I barely remember it. I was 5'9 and weighed all of maybe 125 lbs at the time. But I had just seen my brother covered in 3rd degree burns, my mom screaming, my home on fire, and my dad dragging a garden hose around to put my little brother out....I was helpless, terrified, and saw something, ANYTHING I could do.  Its a true story and printed in the December 13th, 1996 St. Louis Post dispatch if you care to look it up.

The point Im making is that it may seem impossible to "kick out the patch"...but if desperation is getting the better of you, you'd be surprised what you are capable of. So maybe she/he/both of them knew that they needed to salvage what they could of the Electra and did whatever they had to. We still cant be certain what, if any, tools they had on board but it offers just one more theory.

Or maybe its just a random piece of aircraft aluminum that washed ashore from an offshore wreck. We wont know until we know.


Krystal "Still sleeps with a fire extinguisher in her bedroom" McGinty
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #642 on: September 27, 2014, 07:58:15 AM »

You raise an interesting point, Krystal - and I'm sorry about your family's tragedy and hope your brother has recovered well.

The patch could well be removed with some basic tools - maybe with enough raw human force, but I have doubts.

What I point to now is the failure mode that we see along the bottom of the patch - where the double row is: that suggests a different mode of failure.  Because of the direction of the tearing it appears from a diagonal stress dealt in a harsh, singe event - and the failure is in tension.  Beating the panel out would not do that, nor would going after it with an ax, etc.

But it is possible that there was some singular event that partially detached the patch in that area, leaving other areas to be removed by human means, perhaps.  Unfortunately we don't have the actual edges of the part as they existed then - it seems to have been trimmed from its original size - perhaps in the process of removal (which may support your idea, actually).

Very interesting.  All these things may help us to understand what happened in more detail should we ever finally tie all the pieces together to solve this for good.
- Jeff Neville

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Ric Gillespie

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #643 on: September 27, 2014, 08:55:25 AM »

You've just landed on an island. You've, theoretically, have spent several days crying out to thin air, growing more and more desperate each day. Each sunset, your hope of quick rescue slips further and further away. Hypothetically, you dumped most, if not all, of your emergency equipment for the sake of weight back in New Guinea or before that.  Now you are on an uninhabited island, without readily available food, water, shelter, etc, with little more than a makeup case, the clothes on your back, and whatever you can salvage from the airplane.

So the tide is threatening to take the plane over the edge. You know that a patch was placed over a window. Its riveted but unlike the rest of the airplane, it is installed after the fact and possibly weaker than the surrounding structure. You have no cooking surface/water collection device/ material for weapons against mutant crabs etc.  You're terrified, hungry, thirsty, frightened, desperate, hurting, regretful and all feelings in between. You arent likely to have much luck disassembling an Electra, teetering on a reef, without an impressive array of tools....but there is that patch.  Now, it is a long shot and this is purely speculation, but if someone is desperate enough, the body can achieve superhuman feats.

How, and by what or whom, the patch got knocked out is a mystery.  The scenario you describe seems plausible.  Other scenarios also seem possible.  The edge failures and the dents, cuts, and scratches on the surface are good clues as to what happened but we need expert help in interpreting them.  How much of the damage could have been caused by human action and how much had too have been caused by some greater force?  The answer to that question should be quantifiable. 
« Last Edit: September 27, 2014, 08:57:00 AM by Ric Gillespie »
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JNev

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Re: 2-2-V-1 - patch?
« Reply #644 on: September 27, 2014, 08:57:35 AM »

Agreed.
- Jeff Neville

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