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[Ric Gillespie]

As a baseline, Norwich City hullplates were simply blown from the wreck and frisbeed along the beach.

Since the Electra was closeby and exposed to the same seas, it's reasonable to conclude that fuselage plates suffered the same fate.

Excellent point.  The Norwich City gives us a model for what happens to a metal structure (albeit a much larger, heavier structure) hung up on the reef edge. It took years for the ship to break apart. An airplane should break up much more quickly, but the distribution of wreckage should be similar.  Part of the ship broke off and tumbled down the reef slope directly behind the wreck. At least some of the hull plates of the part remaining on the reef ended up on the shore.
If the Electra followed this model I would expect some wreckage in deep water near where the plane was hung up (the anomaly?) and fractured sections of aluminum sheet on the reef flat (1953 debris?) and on the shore (Funafuti anecdote?).
Couple questions.
Three surveys - Maude/Bevington in Oct. '37; NZ in late '38/early '39; and Bushnell in late '39 - saw no airplane wreckage. Gallagher, Sept. '40 to June '41, saw no airplane wreckage. The earliest report of airplane wreckage is Emily some time between January '40 and November '41.
Where is the airplane between July 8, 1937 (day before Navy search) and late 1941 when wreckage starts to wash up?
Why does only the patch survive to be found in 1991?

[Paul March]

What is the likelihood that the patch was simply a "weak" point that was torn from the plane early on? It may have simply been caught on coral not far below the surface where it was eventually dislodged.

[Bill Mangus]

 
Couple questions.
Three surveys - Maude/Bevington in Oct. '37; NZ in late '38/early '39; and Bushnell in late '39 - saw no airplane wreckage. Gallagher, Sept. '40 to June '41, saw no airplane wreckage. The earliest report of airplane wreckage is Emily some time between January '40 and November '41.
Where is the airplane between July 8, 1937 (day before Navy search) and late 1941 when wreckage starts to wash up?
Why does only the patch survive to be found in 1991?
[/quote]

No one saw any wreckage that they recognized as being airplane wreckage.

Both Maude/Bevington and the NZ team took photographs that knowingly or unknowingly included objects which are now believed to be from NR16020 (Bevington Object, 'dot-dot-dash').

USS Bushnell was likely far too busy for sightseeing, although the party putting the flag and electric beacon on NC's foremast would have had a good view if so inclined.  They spent most of their time on the lee side of the island.

Did Gallagher know what Emily knew?  Impossible to know.  If he did, after the bones were reported to him was that what caused him to make the connection to AE and make reference to her in his 23 Sep 40 messages?

I think the breakup of NR16020 I somewhat fancifully described above was complete before Maude/Bevington arrived.  Smaller pieces were probably still moving around of the reef flat but remained unnoticed.

There may have been other scraps found that are still out there, especially in/around the settlement, much of which, I understand remains to be exhaustively searched.  How much did the colonists remanufacture?  . . .and send away?  If they had been asked where they got the metal they used, would they have replied 'from the airplane on the reef'?  (A question we could wish Floyd Kilts had asked!)

More questions than answers still.

[Jay Burkett]

OK, here is an alternate scenario ...

The Electra landing is HARD -- -hard enough to crunch the rear fuselage somewhere in the vicinity of the rear door, skylight in the lav and the large patched-over window opening.  I think that we have built a pretty good case for the fuselage being somewhat weak in that area.  So, the landing may have been hard enough to cause the fuselage to fold at that point. 

Where would Noonan have been during a landing attempt?  If he was in the back, and the tanks were empty, that may have been the perfect setting for an aft c.g., tail heavy, landing.

If the fuselage broke at that location it may have failed in a manner that would have caused the door opening to fold together which would effectively hopelessly jam the door or render the opening blocked.

If the break was across the patched window opening one or more sides of the "patch" could have been torn free during the event.  With two, or more, edges free it doesn't take too much of a leap in logic to get to the point where wave action could have completed the process. 

Continuing down this path ...  If Noonan was in the back, it is easy to imagine him being injured during such a landing, it might not have been impossible to get him out through the door if the fuselage folded at that point.  Likewise, getting him over the tanks and out through the cockpit hatch, may not have been an option.  Such a failure would have resulted in the aircraft sitting at a more pronounced nose up stance (assuming the main gear was not collapsed).  There might have been an attempt to kick the "patch" in order to get an opening large enough to get Noonan out.  If one, or more, edges were already torn free this would have made the decision easier to try to kick the patch out.

[Bill Mangus]

OK, here is an alternate scenario ...

The Electra landing is HARD -- -hard enough to crunch the rear fuselage somewhere in the vicinity of the rear door, skylight in the lav and the large patched-over window opening.  I think that we have built a pretty good case for the fuselage being somewhat weak in that area.  So, the landing may have been hard enough to cause the fuselage to fold at that point. 

Where would Noonan have been during a landing attempt?  If he was in the back, and the tanks were empty, that may have been the perfect setting for an aft c.g., tail heavy, landing.

If the fuselage broke at that location it may have failed in a manner that would have caused the door opening to fold together which would effectively hopelessly jam the door or render the opening blocked.

If the brake was across the patched window opening one or more sides of the "patch" could have been torn free during the event.  With two, or more, edges free it doesn't take too much of a leap in logic to get to the point where wave action could have completed the process. 

Continuing down this path ...  If Noonan was in the back, it is easy to imagine him being injured during such a landing, it might not have been impossible to get him out through the door if the fuselage folded at that point.  Likewise, getting him over the tanks and out through the cockpit hatch, may not have been an option.  Such a failure would have resulted in the aircraft sitting at a more pronounced nose up stance (assuming the main gear was not collapsed).  There might have been an attempt to kick the "patch" in order to get an opening large enough to get Noonan out.  If one, or more, edges were already torn free this would have made the decision easier to try to kick the patch out.

I like the idea of a hard landing starting the break-off of the tail and tearing one or more sides of the patch.  I can't see FN in the back though.  Makes more sense to have both sets of eyes up front scanning the horizon looking for someplace dry to set down.  He's no good in the back.  He's given her a heading to fly - 157.  He's done his job.  "Fred, get up here and help me look!"

[Greg Daspit]

If 2-2-V-1 is the patch, the scenario could be:

1. The plane had a hard landing on the reef. The top of the old window opening under the patch buckled.  If the lav window was framed like the other windows, the now cut circumferential stiffener at Sta. 307 pulls up near the middle of where the window was and makes the first tear. It makes the tear in two directions from near that point.

2. Surf action splits the plane in half aft of the cabin door and forward of the window. That is the non fatigue fracture on one end.

3. Possibly the fuselage comes apart in a way so it pulls the skin from some of the stringers, or waves are now able to hit it from the exposed opening and pop off some rivets.

 4. The dangling piece to used as a reflector to signal. It’s still possibly the shiniest piece and does not involve a lot of work to pull it the rest of the way off. A small fish is cooked on it. (on one edge so as to keep the main part shiny).

5. After the planes failed to see them, and before leaving for the seven site, they use some antenna wire to tie this reflective piece next to where they painted an SOS on the Norwich City to draw attention that message.(insert shameless link to kooky theory here)

6.  Shortly after leaving their message, the patch blew off the Norwich City and the patch and wire were later was pushed by currents back to the shore near the village where it was covered up by sand until the storm uncovered it for TIGHAR to find.

[Matt Revington]

Since the last few posts have been suggesting scenarios of what happened to the Electra on the reef I have always wondered how the almost empty fuel tanks affected the buoyancy of the Electra.  While its fairly easy to understand how wave action could break up the fuselage I would expect that those extra fuel tanks in the body would keep the bulk of it afloat for quite a while, I would expect that they were sealed and water tight.  Unless something happened to breach them I would have thought the plane would still be floating when Lambrect flew.  The most likely scenario was a fire or explosion involving the remaining fuel that damaged them,an event that might also have caused the release of the patch.  Of course I remember that experts have said the artifact doesn't show sign of explosion damage.


I have looked at some older posts now and see that those fuselage tanks had vents that might allow water in, so it's not a given that they would increase buoyancy.

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

The possible window patch 2-2-V-1 was in the rear loo area Matt so would be shielded by the aft compartment bulkhead and door from any direct explosive damage.

[Bill Mangus]

Ric said,
"Excellent point.  The Norwich City gives us a model for what happens to a metal structure (albeit a much larger, heavier structure) hung up on the reef edge. It took years for the ship to break apart. An airplane should break up much more quickly, but the distribution of wreckage should be similar."

Not sure an all aluminum structure would break up the same way the NC did.  Being lighter, the major components of the a/c would tend to move before staying in one place and being hammered by the surf -- unless they were hung up on something, and there's not that much on the reef flat to get hung up on.  They would also tend to move further, faster.  Simply put, NR16020 may not have had enough time in the surf to get pounded to pieces.

Since the last few posts have been suggesting scenarios of what happened to the Electra on the reef I have always wondered how the almost empty fuel tanks affected the buoyancy of the Electra.  While its fairly easy to understand how wave action could break up the fuselage I would expect that those extra fuel tanks in the body would keep the bulk of it afloat for quite a while. . . .

I suspect the internal tanks in the fuselage were holed to some extent during the break up and were slowly filling with water.  This increased but still negative buoyancy may account for the rather extreme diagonal track Richie's Anomaly took as it sank.  It would have been much more affected by the current on the way down.  Same for the wings, but they were lighter and didn't damage the reef face as they descended.  They would also have a tendency to 'flutter' (a falling leaf) on the way down, only periodically striking the reef face.

[Tim Gard]

As a baseline, Norwich City hullplates were simply blown from the wreck and frisbeed along the beach.

Since the Electra was closeby and exposed to the same seas, it's reasonable to conclude that fuselage plates suffered the same fate.

Why does only the patch survive to be found in 1991?

I'm wondering if the severed sections of reef that are the size of bulldozers, shown in  Aerial Tour of Nikamororo (15:45), hold an answer.

Was a subsequent storm so powerful that previously submerged Electra wreckage suffered an upheaval?

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

I suspect the internal tanks in the fuselage were holed to some extent during the break up

That would be bad news in such a small fuselage with five rather large fuel tanks. No doubt they would be near empty of fuel but, not fuel vapour. Five quite large 'empty' tanks contain a lot of fuel vapour. Add in a couple of lead acid batteries and some sea water and who knows what might happen.

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

If 2-2-V-1 is the patch, the scenario could be:

1. The plane had a hard landing on the reef. The top of the old window opening under the patch buckled.  If the lav window was framed like the other windows, the now cut circumferential stiffener at Sta. 307 pulls up near the middle of where the window was and makes the first tear. It makes the tear in two directions from near that point.

2. Surf action splits the plane in half aft of the cabin door and forward of the window. That is the non fatigue fracture on one end.

3. Possibly the fuselage comes apart in a way so it pulls the skin from some of the stringers, or waves are now able to hit it from the exposed opening and pop off some rivets.

I like points 1 to 3 Greg and I'm sure I raised that as a likely area for the fuselage to come apart before. I will see if I can find the image again, its on one the external hard drives somewhere I think 

[C.W. Herndon]

I like points 1 to 3 Greg and I'm sure I raised that as a likely area for the fuselage to come apart before. I will see if I can find the image again, its on one the external hard drives somewhere I think 

Is this the one??

[Jeff Victor Hayden]

That's not the one I posted Woody but the rear part of the fuselage comes apart in the same area, thanks for looking 

[JNev]

Personally I think all the speculation about the airplane 'breaking up' so in the surf is probably way off, just MHO.

Airplanes 'break up' in two cases, mostly -

- By crashing into terra firma or water in a high energy state, and

- Being impacted by something else of a high energy state while the main structure is pinned or tied in a way that leverages the impact and prevents the relatively light ship from simply being shifted about.

I don't see much shot at that for a hapless bird sitting on that reef.  At worst, IMO, a gear might have been 'pinned' (ala "Nessie"), in which case the tendency, IMO, would be that the gear would fail before feathers, wings, engines or other main structures like a fuselage would break.  Then the bird as a whole, more or less, would probably - IMO - simply windmill and slide hither and yon more or less intact (albeit damaged) until it eventually found a resting place - perhaps in the deep (a natural tendency for objects in that area).

Simply put, the airframe was too tough, and too light to so easily 'break up' due to tidal forces on the reef IMHO.  By comparison, the ship bears little comparison: it was quite heavy, was very much its own anchor; the tides could not dislodge it, so they nipped at it over time and took one plate and gusset away at a time until very little was left.  Lighter tough structures like airplanes don't behave that way if unpinned (and I believe the Electra would have been 'unpinned', once a pinned gear - if that happened, failed).

Might it have been carwheeled, for example, breaking off tail feathers, etc?  Possible, I suppose, if the surf got wild enough; but more likely I believe it would have endured a battering for as long as it managed to stay in the surf, and eventually would just be swept away, most major components still attached.

As long as these WAGs are floating around I thought I'd just throw mine in.  YMMV, of course - no offense - but in my lifetime of observing many wrecks and damaged airplanes and working with the design and certification of aerostructures, I just don't see all these colorful 'break-up' scenarios as very realistic or probable.  If Emily saw airplane wreckage, then most likely it was the bulk of the bird - unless just a gear that was left behind, etc. 

As to 2-2-V-1 and IF it was part of the Electra in the form of the Lavatory Window 'Patch' (I'd still love to know and it's still my pet notion), I further doubt that natural forces dislodged it.  It appears too robust for that, IMO, by what I can tell of the window structure and how it would have been logically covered.  More likely, in my view, someone would have found the wreck - possibly submerged but reachable, and went after what they could get for salvage.

All just my own views, of course.  If anyone can show us some examples of airplanes that 'broke up' after being deposited on a reef then I would happily yield, otherwise I think it is nonsense.  I think there are many examples of airframe failures because of what I've outlined above - high energy impact with the ground, or by another object while being forcibly pinned in place somehow.  Barring examples of it having happened elsewhere, I don't see the surf and reef themselves as highly qualified for that scenario - the light, tough airframe would - IMO - just be too easy to push around and while battering would happen, major break-up would not be so likely in my belief.

Of course none of us can get beyond speculation at this point.  The only real answers can come from finding the damned airplane.  The only way to find the damned airplane is to go look for it.  I've said it before in the context of other artifacts, so I'll repeat it in the context of 2-2-V-1 - these things are markers on the trail - they give us confidence, or not, as to a place to look; 2-2-V-1 is to me a 'marker' that gives me reason to wonder if the Electra is nearby; to me it draws two ways: learn if it can be firmly tied to the Electra (contemporary photo evidence needed) which would be as good as finding the Electra, in some sense - and as a pointer as to where to look for the bird itself.

Just my thoughts, as long as we're on this path of speculation. 

I look forward to any examples of 'airplanes that broke up like ships due to tidal forces', if they can be found.  Otherwise I think we have one of three things for a 'holy grail' (airplane wreck) a) a substantially intact Electra somewhere downslope of Niku (or another reef, if we've somehow missed the mark), b) a badly battered but more or less intact Electra that managed to ditch with relatively minimal damage that then sank somewhere out there, or c) a smashed and possibly dismembered Electra that simply crashed hard either into the sea or the shallows somewhere, finally being consumed by the sea over time.

Just my own WAG speculation, of course, YMMV.